Metro North

Why would Fingal County Council not be listed there as a local authority?

So what gets decided on the 13th: is this just the determination of whether or not this is to be considered as a strategic development?

Shouldn’t we append this thread to the existing Metro North thread:
https://archiseek.com/content/showthread.php?t=3679

very good point!

the title of the other thread should be metro north not airport link

Yes it would be good to change the thread name now the metro goes to Swords. Do you know what we learn on the 13th? What steps have to be gone through before the Railway Order. Has anything got planning permission under as Strategic Infrastructure.

BTW The members only part of the platform 11 site has plans of the Ballymun and O’Connell Street stops. The most stricking thing in the latter case is just how big it is, the southern entrances are by the Harp building and the northern ones a block north of the bridge. The line is a long way underground.

@shamrockmetro wrote:

http://www.pleanala.ie/casenum/NC0003.htm

PL29S.NC0003
Case type: Railway Ord. – Consultation
Decision: Case is due to be decided by 13-11-2007
EIS required: No

note: this is not the application

They seem to be having problems deciding this whatever it is, it now says

“Decision: Case is due to be decided by 29-11-2007”

how much is the appeal fee to the high court?
how much is the appeal fee to the european court of first instance? 😀

no one has sent any plans to me : P

soil testing…

these guys are so sneaky its not funny….
They must remember this is Europe not America
I only realized that it was there because I have checked the page so many times

http://www.rpa.ie/upload/documents/20080207%20Updated%20Final%20Scoping%20Report_Feb_FinalV4.pdf

If you look under

http://www.rpa.ie/metro/environment/environmental_impact_assessment

you will not find any mention of it…. but under

http://www.rpa.ie/metro/about_metro/what_is_metro

you will find it with no date of when it was added.😮

Metro North Public Consultation on Design

Following the announcement of the route for Metro North on Thursday October 19th 2006 work commenced on the appraisal of detailed design options for Metro North. RPA are currently engaged in ongoing consultation related to design options for Metro North. As the project progresses detailed design options are emerging for a number of areas of Metro North.

A Draft EIS Scoping Report has been published for Metro North, click here to view or download this report.

RPA will provide draft design drawings of the Metro North Route as they become available, to see these draft design drawings click here.

I spoke with the board a few times and they said when the application is made you will be able to view all drawings and documents on the internet.
If it is only advertised for 4 weeks it could take them 2 weeks to scan the whole package.

Frank if you need to ask for more money do it….

I will not support a metro that has no architectural merit.
I will not support off the shelf signage.
I will not support excessive advertising on trains
stations and entrances.

List of attendees at the Metro North Scoping Workshop

The Dublin City Council City Architect was not involed!!!!

It makes sense that metro north should connect with Belfast…

It makes sense that metro north should connect with Belfast??
and have 4 platforms at the airport?
There is a building laying vacant in Westmoreland st I hope they are not going to use that as the metro entrance?
Park and ride??? good idea in theory but it should all be underground who should pay for it?
the NRA who should pay to resurface and landscape all stations directed by a landscape architect mostly in Chinese granite?

They will also fund the bridge over O’Connell st and st Stephens green?

Hutton the reason why this project is going so slow is the developers get in first and don’t have to subsidize the project?

So finally we get a piece of the EIS, merely the ‘Draft scoping report for consultation’ in fact.

Out of a total 47 pages, there’s very little mention of Stephen’s Green & the impact installing a construction ‘compound’ within the parks confines will have, permanent or otherwise. Indeed reference to it is so vague, you’d have to conclude that tree felling within the green will not be necessary – i’m not convinced.

Unless the RPA can keep its compound strictly within the confines of the Green’s main lake, itself surrounded by some of the parks most mature specimens, felling looks to be inevitable.

For those interested all references to Stephen’s Green within the report are summarised below.
Mention within the report itself is limited to 3 paragraphs. The bulk of comment, or shall we say concern for the green comes at the end in a summarised table of comments received from the main stake holders – OPW, DCC & DoEHLG.

[quote=”Metro North EIS:
Draft Scoping Report for consultation”:3ttv79xq]

… From O&#8217]Comments received as part of consultation[/B]

– St. Stephen’s Green should be considered as a feature of architectural heritage. The architectural impact must therefore be considered as well as the archaeological impact. – DoEHLG

– The assessors should consider whether or not St. Stephen’s Green is a National Monument under the National Monuments Acts 1930 – 2004. At least one member of DoEHLG believes that it is and if it is, Ministerial Consent will be required prior to development.. – DoEHLG

– Structures within St. Stephen’s Green must be protected e.g. statues, rails etc. – OPW

– Erosion of greenbelts with the location of stops must be considered, especially in relation to the impact on the footprint of St. Stephen’s Green (the entire Green and not just the 500m radius).

– All construction plant and equipment should be kept within the confines of St. Stephens Green so as to minimise the visual impact on the surrounding environment.

– The impact of dust from the development should be considered in relation to the entire area of St. Stephen’s Green and not just a 500m radius.

– If any permanent structures are to be erected in the Green, the impact must be considered.

– The impact that pedestrian footfall and the development may have on the water table for the trees.

– Clarification is needed in relation to the proposed size of the compound at St. Stephen’s Green and other design arrangements.

So essentially, we’re none the wiser. All we know is that the Green’s terminus is to be located at the north west corner & that it will of course require a large bored tuning circle, i.e what we already knew; nothing on the size of this compound.

I’m convinced the RPA are side stepping this one. Lets face it, a TBM is hardly the most graceful of man made objects. If felling turns out to be necessary within the Green, & its difficult to see how it can be avoided – there are many out there, far more militant than me, that will be up in arms about this one.

There is an alternative of course.
Spare St. Stephen’s Green the heavy toll of the 5 year construction period & utilise the lawn of the adjacent Iveagh Gardens.

Don’t get me wrong, the Iveagh Gardens are a gem & i’ve been jumped on before for suggesting it as an alternative, but the simple fact remains that the lawn can be reinstated exactly as is, whereas the perfectly maturing set piece that is the green is in danger of being altered permanently.

Put simply, the Iveagh lawn equates to less than a third of the overall park, is large enough to contain the RPA’s compound in its entirety, can be easily sealed off for the duration, but most importantly, can be successfully reinstated.

There is an alternative.

From yesterday’s Sunday Business Post:
Developer Joe O’Reilly wrote to the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) criticising the decision to reduce the number of Metro North stops in Dublin city centre. O’Reilly said that the decision to reduce the number of stations from three to two “is a weak compromise”. In a letter written in October 2006, and released to The Sunday Business Post under the Freedom of Information Act, he said that the southern part of the city centre will “yet again be strengthened by the current proposal which dedicates one station (St Stephen’s Green) to the south, while the second station is shared; the northside has no station. Furthermore the positioning of a station on O’Connell Bridge will serve to create greater division between north and south Dublin.”

The RPA has said it will consider a third city centre stop at Parnell Square East, after a request from Dublin City Council. That station would be close to a number of properties owned by O’Reilly, including the former Carlton cinema site and adjoining land on O’Connell Street and a 50 per cent stake in the Ilac Centre to the rear of that site.

“It is true that a metro exit at Abbey Street would be within 300 metres of our development but we are not looking to just create a successful shopping district quarter,” O’Reilly continued. “We see our development as an engine for regeneration – simply put, we want a successful development in a vibrant, prosperous part of the town. Together with the metro we can rejuvenate Parnell Square/Dominick Street and the surrounding areas, making them as attractive as St Stephen’s Green on the south side.”

O’Reilly said that if the decision is made to stick to two stations they should be equitably positioned with one on the southside and one on the northside. He said the proposed station under O’Connell Bridge was in an area already congested with pedestrians and would be a disaster. “It just does not make sense to put all the commuters and tourists through streets crowded with shoppers to get to the metro,” he wrote. “By positioning the second station at north O’Connell Street/Parnell Square east we will put passengers away from the areas of congestion.”

O’Reilly continued that the new public square planned for part of the Carlton cinema site would be able to accommodate a metro exit and contrasted that situation with Oxford Circus tube station in London which has to close regularly at peak time because of passenger congestion. “There is only one chance to get this right and the decisions made now will impact on generations to come,” he concluded.

An earlier submission, drawn up by TJ O’Connor & Associates on behalf of O’Reilly’s Chartered Land, said that if one “enters the Ilac from Henry Street and exits on Parnell Street is is like going into a time-maching, regressing about 15 years to pre-Celtic Tiger days”. Other documents show Chartered’s redevelopment of the Carlton site will involve constructing a 92,900 square metre development.

RPA chairman Padraic White responded that following talks with stakeholders in the O’Connell Street area it became clear that a stop there would have had significant drawbacks in terms of the likely impact on businesses and traffic. The station under the Liffey was then chosen because there would be less construction impact and because it offered better connections to the Luas red line.

He said he did not agree with O’Reilly’s view that the stop under the Liffey would create additional congestion problems because the station’s location would reduce the number of people using O’Connell Bridge. Up to six entrances in total will be used to allow passengers disperse from the station and the footways on O’Connell Bridge will be widened.

Fintan Fagan, general manager of The Rotunda Hospital in Dublin, wrote that the RPA and said that the hospital “fully endorses” the Parnell Square metro stop. He also requested that the stop be named Rotunda, stating it would be “a significant step in reintegrating the Rotunda Hospital and its services into the North Dublin community, in keeping with Dublin City Council’s vision for Parnell Square to be the jewel in the crown of the north side of Dublin”. The submission also includes details of the hospital’s plan to increase the existing amount of development on the site from 20,000 square metres to 50,000 square metres. It will also provide 600 underground car parking spaces.

A number of letters sent to the RPA by representatives of Metropark were not released by the RPA because they contained personal information. However, the submission made on behalf of Metropark owner Hugo Byrne by land use consultants ILTP was made available under the Act. It states that the vision for the land is based on that of an international airport city, “which can lead to the formation of a new regional pole driven by the airport’s outstanding accessibility”.

The masterplan for the site sets out two quantums of development for the land. The higher quantum includes nearly 625,000 square metres of offices, 68,000 square metres of residential use, 148,000 square metres of hotels and conference centres, just under 42,000 square metres of civic buildings, 29,000 square metres of retail parks and car showrooms and 235,000 square metres of warehousing. In total it would comprise just under 1.15 million square metres of development.

A lower quantum would allow 437,000 square metres of office development, 48,500 square metres of residential units, 74,400 square metres of hotels and conference centres, just under 28,000 square metres of civic buildings, 20,300 square metres of retail park and car showrooms and just under 140,000 square metres of warehousing. That would be a cumulative total of just under 750,000 square metres of development.

Three routes were originally put forward by the RPA for Metro North. The first was a western route via Broadstone and Finglas, the second was a central route via Glasnevin and Ballymun and the third was an eastern route via Drumcondra and Santry. Eventually the RPA decided to go for a combination of the second and third routes meaning trams will travel via Drumcondra and Ballymun

Developer Liam Carroll’s company Royceton made a submission lobbying for a stop on Botanic Road in Phibsbrough. The stop would have been next to the old Smurfit paper factory site on Botanic Road, which he owns, and which would have allowed a high density mixed use development around a transportation interchange “which will incorporate bus, metro and heavy rail facilities”. The submission stated that the developer is planning to build more than 240 residential units, 6,970 square metres of retail, 5,000 square metres of commercial space and a creche on the site. Carroll’s submission also states that an underground link between the metro station and the proposed new train station just off Prospect Road was possible and that they could be linked via a travellator. The RPA instead opted for stations in Drumcondra and Griffith Avenue.

The Irish Property Unit Trust, which is a joint owner of Airside retail park in Swords, said that the central or west route would be the best options because it would provide a public transport facility for customers of the retail park.

Jackpack Properties, via a submission by John Spain Associates, lobbied for the selection of the central or western routes. It owns 10.8 acres at Fosterstown North in Swords, Co Dublin. Jackpack Properties is not registered as a company or a trading name in the island of Ireland or in Britain, according to Companies House documents.

The Dublin Metro North-East Alliance – which comprised the GAA, Beaumont Hospital, a number of landowners and hotel owners – lobbied for the eastern route. The owners of Northside Shopping Centre and Clonshaugh industrial estate were also members of the group. They stated that the eastern route had 225 acres more land available for development than the central route and that it would have a higher catchment poulation as a result. It would also benefit the State as it owned significant amounts of land along that route.

Fyffes chairman Carl McCann wrote to the RPA in April 2006 stating that the company had “major development plans” for its 30-plus acre business property in Clonshaugh industrial estate and it was “very concerned” that the proposed eastern route “would cause us a significant loss in value” if it went through their land.

“In regard to Swords,” he wrote, “I was puzzled by the location of [the Swords stop] as Airside business park is already well served by Airside. Could [the Swords stop] be relocated slightly further north to serve a) Swords Business Park, where we have a substantial premises, b) the Pavilion Shopping Centre and c) central Swords?”

He also questioned the location of the stop at the airport: “It looks on the map as if the station is beside the two hotels and a very long way from the terminal, and I cannot imagine how this could be the chosen location”.

Trinity College asked for a review of the plan to put the metro underneath the university stating its land had a “complex water table regime” and the metro’s “designers will need to consider the stability of all buildings that could be affected by the intereference with the water table levels caused by the metro construction”. The final route chosen for Metro north will not pass under Trinity.

A submission by the Dublin Diocesan Trust outlining the draft masterplan for its lands at Clonliffe in Drumcondra was not released by the RPA because it contained confidential information.

the independent

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/metro-stations-get-the-green-light-in—fasttrack-decision-1288392.html

and

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/metro-too-small-to-cope-with-demand-says-expert-1282539.html

http://www.irishrail.ie/projects/pdf/ExampleStationatStephensGreen.pdf

You can see this photo was taken in winter compare it with the google earth one!

worrying

Hi missarchi. Can I ask where did this picture come from?

http://www.rpa.ie/metro/news/news_letters

then go q card nov 2007

rpay4architecture@epretenders.ie.com.co.uk

whats funny about this is just how poorly the entrances are considered…
The rpa’s/cie’s main goal is to minimize disruption to traffic when really they should not be giving a toss.
From the drawings so far there are no double height spaces no full width open platforms.
At O’Connell st they will try and pull off Copenhagen style?
But there is still time…

Architecture does not even rate for these guys but maybe the wheels are turning with quick fix’s….

I mean burger king or or the bank of ireland would make perfect entrances!!!!

oh and they have added a light box… i mean sign i mean lightbox:D
cannot wait to see there street furniture drawings that are at 1:50 and are 1km long and 100 metres wide

Low-capacity design favoured for Metro North

THE RAILWAY Procurement Agency (RPA) is to go ahead with a low-capacity design for Metro North, according to briefing documents circulated to the four consortiums which are bidding for the project. Tim O’Brien reports

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0322/1206024758456.html

The minister says the time for consultation is over ???

History

* 28/03/2007: Lodged
* : Consultancy has yet to be concluded

We always knew they would go for the low cost, low capacity light rail system rather than a heavy rail system. They reasoned that Cities comparable in size to Dublin chose the light rail option rather than the heavy rail metro of Paris or London.

I was always of the impression that MN and MW could both “potentially” carry up to 80,000 pph in both directions but would only operate up to 20,000 at the outset. Bit shitty that MN won’t have that potential. But the article only states the width as the issue. What are the headways gonna be. Again, I was led to believe that they could be as low as 90 seconds. Is that still the case? And what impact will that have on the capacity. Does 20,000 relate to 180 sec headways?

@cgcsb wrote:

We always knew they would go for the low cost, low capacity light rail system rather than a heavy rail system. They reasoned that Cities comparable in size to Dublin chose the light rail option rather than the heavy rail metro of Paris or London.

I think a few cities in europe went for pre metro’s I want to see the population predictions for 2108… 😉

look at Geneva and Valencia Bilbao???

One other issue concerns me… Ticket price this I assumed will be positioned so that it does not compete with bus so you will have people catching the bus because it is cheaper which defeats the whole purpose of having the thing??? It will be marketed as a express service to the airport

I would also like to see bullet trains run through the inter connector every hour cork > Belfast

It wouldn’t be possible to have intercity services run through the interconnector such as Cork/Belfast as only electrified carriages can safely enter the tunnel. Diesel units will be unable to make the journey. However a direct Cork/Belfast service could easily be acheived if trains entered huston and turned left under the pheonix park and instead of going to connolly, a minor inexpensive trackalteration would alow the train to turnleft onto the northern line. At the moment though capasity issues on the northern line would not allow for this. In the future though when alot of traffic is diverted away from Connolly this would be a very real possibility with only a miniscule development cost as the infastructure is already in place.

@alonso wrote:

I was always of the impression that MN and MW could both “potentially” carry up to 80,000 pph in both directions but would only operate up to 20,000 at the outset. Bit shitty that MN won’t have that potential. But the article only states the width as the issue. What are the headways gonna be. Again, I was led to believe that they could be as low as 90 seconds. Is that still the case? And what impact will that have on the capacity. Does 20,000 relate to 180 sec headways?

The capacity design limitation is the length of the platforms. 90 metre trains will hold roughly 3 times the passengers of a 30m Luas or 700 people. The RPA says their minimum headway is 120 seconds (30 trains per hour) so that makes 30 X 700 = 21,000 passengers per hour per direction (21,000 pphpd). It seems wrong to go to the expense of building this train with short platforms when all our urban train services have reached capacity so quickly in the past.

The funny thing is that before the public consultation, RPA planned to have the platforms only 60m long. :rolleyes:

In reality the platforms should be 140m. You could then wall off the platform so that is only 90m, but when required it would be easily, cheaply and with far less distruption (as the service would be very busy by then) be extended.

You see the problem is the culture at the RPA of build at the cheapest cost possible. Now that might sound a bit obvious to most people, however, when it comes to public transport, you should build for what is needed and will be needed, not what is the cheapest. At one time the RPA proposed not to build escalators on the Metro to help to reduce costs. :rolleyes:

Another example is the Green line extension. The RPA know about trams that are packed out (people can’t get on the trams) at several stops before heading into the Green. This will be made worse with the line extension.
Now they are planning to increase the frequency as well as extend the 40m trams to 55m to combat this. However the platforms on the line can only take 40m trams. So eventually the platforms will need to be extended, causing major disrubtion to the busy service.
Now the Green Line extension is building only 40m platforms, even though they know that they will have to be extend. Why can’t they do it now before the extended line is open saving major disruption.

Why, because its cheaper… for now.

weehamster, while all your facts are correct, I would question where the finger is being pointed. The RPA work to their budget alloted by the DoT. If they’re given x billion, they have to spend x billion. The y in x+y billion needed for a decent service is all politics. But you’re totally right to highlight these inadequacies. I could be wrong and maybe the RPA executive wilfully neglect long term thinking but I doubt it.

I’m not blaming the RPA but if there hands are tied how can we fix it???
1:4 mirrored for the next 10 years :confused:

@missarchi wrote:

1:4 mirrored for the next 10 years :confused:

What do you mean?

funding…

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.aspx?F=TRJ20080326.xml&Node=H3#H3

Metro north is a subject the committee wants to discuss. It will run from St. Stephen’s Green with various stops in the city centre, at the Mater Hospital, Drumcondra, Dublin City University, Dublin Airport, Swords and beyond. We intend to apply for a railway order for which the board is scheduled to apply in June, with a submission to be made later in the summer or early autumn. We are engaged in a procurement process for a public private partnership contract for it and pleased with the level of interest in it. It is important that we maintain the momentum for this critical project in the delivery of Transport 21. It will be a high capacity system that will make an enormous difference in transportation in Dublin. Metro west is an orbital route that will connect towns in the western part of Dublin – Tallaght, Clondalkin, Liffey Valley and Blanchardstown – to link with Metro north and the Dardistown area.

As part of the route selection and our preparation of the construction methodology and of traffic management arrangements, every effort has been made and will continue to be made to minimise the disruption that will arise from construction. In his letter inviting us to meet the committee, the Chairman referred to the “big dig”. We are not using the phrase “big dig” as it reminds people of the big dig in Massachusetts, which was a cut and cover tunnel where the full length of the tunnel in the city centre area was entirely excavated. That is not the case in Dublin where we will have a bored tunnel. However, station locations such as St. Stephen’s Green, O’Connell Bridge, Parnell Square and the Mater Hospital will be major construction sites to provide for the putting in place of large underground railway stations.

:mad:minimize disruption I hope this does not compromise the design?

We are working carefully with Dublin City Council, Dublin Bus and many other interests to ascertain how we can minimise the impact of disruption during construction. We are engaging with business interests in the city centre and are pleased about the strong support we have received from them. There is unanimity among business representative organisations that metro north is critically required. They want us to ensure that every effort is made to minimise disruption and we are committed to doing that.

We discussed with them the issue that sometimes there is a trade off between minimising, to the maximum extent possible, the space available for construction – however, that prolongs the construction phase – and the length of time construction takes. The design of these systems is an integrative process. We come up with a station design and examine the traffic management, which suggests that changes are required and we then change the construction design. That work is continuing and will continue in our negotiations with the PPP contractors.

An important feature of the arrangements we are putting in place to try to preserve, to the maximum extent possible, routes within the city centre, particularly for public transport, especially bus transport as the bus will continue to be a workhorse of public transport for the foreseeable future, is an agreement that an additional bridge will be put in place in Marlborough Street. Therefore, if capacity is removed in the O’Connell Street area, additional capacity will be made available in the Marlborough Street area. We continue to work with the various stakeholders to make sure that we come up with a solution that is reasonable under the circumstances and does not prolong the construction period too long.

:mad:preserve routes for public transport ie cars ? and no space for bikes/people/footpaths…
he is quoting a well known fella?

In that context, it should also help that not only will an additional bridge be put in place in the Marlborough Street area but that by then the Macken Street Bridge will be constructed and some of the other road projects, including the widening of the M50, will be complete. That should help to deal with the level of congestion in the city centre.

……………………….

calatrava will be coming again two 2 + 1 roads?

……………………….

Mr. Frank Allen: Information Zoom Exactly. However, costs can vary considerably from city to city. This committee invited the president of the Madrid metro to visit here some years ago. He had indicated, from his estimation of costs in Ireland relative to Madrid, that the cost in Ireland was very considerably higher. He had come up with estimates for what he thought it would cost to build the Dublin metro which were presented to this committee and it was a different concept to what we have today. He indicated that comparing the Dublin metro with Madrid is comparing two radically different things.

………………

I would be curious about price comparisons with Budapest ? paper and don’t believe english:cool: maybe its to late

……………

We have worked closely with Mr. Barry and his team. Many of those who worked on the Dublin Port tunnel now work as part of the RPA team.

Deputy Fergus O’Dowd: The major issue raised at the weekend was the capacity of the metro in terms of the volume it will carry and that one could have a maximum and a minimum amount per hour. I understand the metro will carry 24,000 people per hour. Is that correct?

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: On the same point, the systems in the UK and elsewhere can carry 70,000 people per hour. The former Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael, Garret FitzGerald, is still with us in this debate.

Deputy Fergus O’Dowd: He will shortly address a meeting on the Lisbon treaty.

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: In respect of his ongoing critique of the Luas, why do we not build a system with a 70,000 per hour capacity?

Mr. Frank Allen: I am pleased to say Mr. FitzGerald and ourselves are on the same page in respect of this point. I would be amazed if any location in the world has the numbers suggested by Deputy Broughan but perhaps the bullet trains in the centre of Tokyo have them.

……………………..

:p Dublin would love some of those trains but the prodigy ant happy

…………………………..

Mr. Frank Allen: Indeed, it is for that reason that a 2,000 space park and ride facility is proposed in Lissenhall.

great we will have 2000 bicycle spaces!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙁

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: Information Zoom Mr. Allen has been very helpful to us during my time on this committee. The great Mr. Frank McDonald believes we should scrap this plan but Fingal Deputies do not agree. My constituents will be interested to know if the tunnels will be big enough for heavier trains. Is that a significant aspect of the current plan?

Mr. Frank Allen: The platform length in an underground station is the issue. As a practical matter, that is fixed. It is not practical to extend the platform length within the tunnel. We have taken the question into account in developing the size and scope of the project and are very confident that, based on the projections for Dublin Airport Authority, Fingal County Council and others, we will provide adequate capacity.

…………………………………
Publication Date: 20/02/2008
Application Deadline:
Notice Deadline Date: 18/03/2008
Notice Deadline Time:
Notice Type: Tender
Has Documents: No
Abstract: Title attributed to the contract by the contracting entity: RPA7162
Transport Model Upgrade.
RPA is seeking to procure consultants to update its transport forecasting
model to a new base year and enhance the
Functionality of the model to allow RPA to forecast Luas, Metro and other
transport demand with confidence in the future.
CPV: 74000000, 74276400, 74200000, 74312100, 74210000.

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: If the line goes all the way out to Bray, in accordance with the previous public transport plan

:phint hint

There is tremendous momentum. The RPA has tripled its staff in the past two years. The pace is at times unprecedented for public transport. I am satisfied with that, although I would like it to be moving more quickly.

………………

The RPA has not employed one single design adviser since April 2007?

Title: IRL-Parkgate Street: urban planning and landscape architectural services
Published by: Railway Procurement Agency
Publication Date: 07/02/2008
Application Deadline:
Notice Deadline Date: 05/03/2008
Notice Deadline Time:
Notice Type: Tender
Has Documents: No
Abstract: Title attributed to the contract by the contracting entity:
RPA7156_Arboriculturist Framework Agreement.
RPA intends to enter into framework agreement(s) with one or more parties
for the provision of arboricultural services.
CPV: 74250000, 90310000.

VI.3) PROCEDURES FOR APPEAL
VI.3.1) Body responsible for appeal procedures: The High Court, Chief
Registrar, Four Courts, Inns Quay, IRL-Dublin 7. Tel. +353 (0)1 888 6000.
URL: http://www.courts.ie. Fax +353 (0)1 888 6125.;)

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: Information Zoom With regard to metro north, when does Mr. Allen expect the boring machines to begin moving?

Mr. Frank Allen: Information Zoom Our intention is that if the board of the RPA passes a resolution to apply for a railway order in June, by the time that is fully printed, environmental impact statements taken care of and so forth, we will apply for a railway order to An Bord Pleanála late in the summer or in early autumn. We are targeting that the process with An Bord Pleanála, which is now working well under the strategic infrastructure Act, will take nine months. If we get it in nine months, we will be very pleased. That will be well into 2009.

We have sought permission from the Government and funding has been provided to carry out preliminary works, in terms of moving utilities, towards the end of 2009 so that when the PPP contractor arrives on the site much of the preliminary work will be done and work can begin in 2010. However, that depends on no major issues arising in An Bord Pleanála and a successful procurement process. We are working to reduce the risks but some things are not entirely under our control. It means not finding any major archaeological sites, although we have provided for time for some archaeology if we encounter sites. All of that influences the programme. Our programme aims to obtain a railway order from An Bord Pleanála in 2009. By the end of 2009, we will do utility diversions to get contractors on the ground as early as possible in 2010.

Deputy Thomas P. Broughan: They would be much smaller tunnels.

Mr. Frank Allen: Yes, they would be much smaller tunnels and the impact would be far less than the port tunnel.

I want what they are having :rolleyes:

We have had discussions with Dublin City Council and with business in the city centre about what would be a tolerable level of disruption for public transport in the city centre. The very clear position is that building major stops for metro north at St. Stephen’s Green, O’Connell Bridge and Parnell, while simultaneously having a linear project being constructed up O’Connell Street and down Marlborough Street, when Marlborough Street is required as the substitute route for buses into that area, would result in an unacceptable level of disruption to the city during the construction phase. We have suggested to the Minister for Transport that we will put down the Luas tracks when the streets are being reinstated in the final phase of metro north in areas such as St. Stephen’s Green, Westmoreland Street and parts of O’Connell Street.

In respect of building parts of the metro in the Fingal area, the critical path and the really complex parts of metro north are clearly in the city centre. The most complex part is around the O’Connell Bridge area, for various reasons. From an engineering point of view,

😮 yeap I didn’t hear the word urban design

Chairman: Two people have been very patient and we must end. Mr. Allen gave the project the nickname “the big dig”. I know it is not comparable to the one in Boston but it will be much bigger in terms of the disruption it will cause. Is the whole point not that we must take traffic out of the city centre and use the bus as our key workhorse in the next five years, while the development work is under way? Is that not the key to keeping the city open, as Mr. Allen put it?

your thoughts?
why the limit on smiles?

A letter in today’s times which could well have been written by our own missarchi:

MAKING THE METRO BEAUTIFUL
Madam, – Once again we have a major article from Frank McDonald, attempting to undermine confidence in the Metro proposals (“The tearing of the Green”, April 26th). Can we please have some balance in this debate?

For myself, I am glad that years of campaigning for a Metro at last seem to be paying off. However, I think it would be lamentable if we were left with a kind of rough, exposed concrete presentation of these stations in an attempt to save money.

For the sake of a couple of hundred thousand euro, Dublin Port Tunnel – which, despite its defects, has had a major impact in siphoning off articulated trucks from the Dublin quays – presents an unlovely appearance to the passer-by and the user.

Instead of decent landscaping and a proper formal approach celebrating the city of Dublin, we are left with what looks like a corrugated iron surface on something that resembles a giant hoover flying in from outer space and embedding itself in the Dublin soil.

Can we please have a bit of imagination with the proposed Metro stations? Let us take a leaf out of the book of Paris and Moscow, spend a few bob in giving them a human face and show our pride in our culture by having recessed display cabinets exhibiting reproductions of some of the treasures of our culture, such as the gold torcs in the National Museum, the Ardagh Chalice, Tara Brooch, The Books of Kells, etc.

When we are going to spend so much money, why not present such a project appropriately? – Yours, etc,
Senator DAVID NORRIS,
Seanad Éireann,
Dublin 2.

The meaning of tourist gateway…

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/first-look-at-the-model-metro-1372877.html

Details of the metro stations from the Independent.

Ack, it’ll do, just build the feckin thing already.

At least they’re showing a few escalators.

Thanks for that TLM….

Toy town??? Are they serious or is this a joke???? If its not a joke read below…
For all Ireland’s claim of innovation? architecture , graphic design, industrial design , urban planning

He said St Stephen’s Green will have a 20 metre platform???
300 x 300mm tiles because they are cheaper to lay
Alcoholic advertising
The signage is horrible
The cream downstand is a dogs dinner
Electronic advertising with sound and projections?

Are they really serious??

madrid has marble floors at the airport and is what 2 euro a pop?

OMA haag tram with style:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rugb66/15280702/sizes/o/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/76008010@N00/308941781/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/masa79/6936038/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/76008010@N00/308941786/in/photostream/

nice clocks:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/1295351077/

Russia

http://russos.livejournal.com/411015.html#cutid1

Others

http://community.livejournal.com/metrogiprotrans/4633.html

Budapests…

Brazilians do it better!!!!
strogino from russia with love…

http://www.ireland.com/head2head/

Frank meet Frank
I will be quite frank with you : P
Frank who is your favorite architect?
Frankly I don’t care… j/k

Interesting article that doesn’t dig too deep… A question and answer would have been great!!! or a show and tell

The question is of architecture in my mind…
Does the architecture stack up?
Are the RPA or CIE for that matter any better than other designers do they have the moduli operandi?
What international architecture awards have the CIE/RPA won?
Do they need some help from the OPW or some more open sources?
Or a one track mind one man band…

I hate when people repeat themselves; Frank McDonald has expressed his view, we all know it, to repeat it is not good debate. I wish he would get back to commentating on development and design in Ireland, something I, for one, sorely miss.

Talking about the aesthetics of it, having bare concrete walls doesn’t mean it can’t be aesthetically pleasing. It’s been 7 years but I remember the Bilbao metro. The passageways are concrete but done in a good way and the stations are pretty simple, at least in the city centre that I know of. Everyone talks about the entrances which are very simple and effective. Simple touches to concrete can make a big difference.

@Conorworld wrote:

Talking about the aesthetics of it, having bare concrete walls doesn’t mean it can’t be aesthetically pleasing. It’s been 7 years but I remember the Bilbao metro. The passageways are concrete but done in a good way and the stations are pretty simple, at least in the city centre that I know of. Everyone talks about the entrances which are very simple and effective. Simple touches to concrete can make a big difference.

There is nothing wrong with bare concrete if its done right but for grand central it will be difficult to cut it?
Green on green is where its at irish green mable even more so and some of the black irish stuff.
Any one can do concrete but who can do green on green well…

RPA is pleased to be able to inform you that good progress is being made with plans for Metro North which will extend from St. Stephen’s Green, via Dublin Airport to Belinstown. RPA intends to apply to An Bord Pleanála later this year with the aim of starting construction in 2009.

In advance of submitting the Railway Order application to An Bord Pleanála, RPA would like to invite you to the following Open Days to learn more about the Stops close to you:

When: Tuesday 15/07/08; 6pm – 9pm
Where: Mater Centre for Nurse Education, Nelson Street, Dublin 7
What: Mater Stop

When: Thursday 17/07/08; 12pm – 8pm
Where: Conference Centre, Regency Hotel, Drumcondra, Dublin 9
What: Drumcondra, Griffith Avenue Stops and St. Patrick’s College Ventilation Shaft

When: Thursday 24/07/08; 12pm – 8pm
Where: Ballymun Civic Offices, Ballymun, Dublin 11
What: Dublin City University and Ballymun Stops

When: Tuesday 29/07/08; 12pm – 8pm
Where: Dublin City Council Offices, Wood Quay, Dublin 2
What: St. Stephen’s Green, O’Connell Bridge and Parnell Square Stops

When: Thursday 31/07/08; 12pm – 8pm
Where: Fingal County Council Civic Offices, Swords, Co. Dublin
What: Northwood, Dardistown, Airport, Fosterstown, Swords, Seatown and Belinstown Stops

RPA representatives will be on hand to answer your queries.

We look forward to seeing you there!

A positive step forward… I hope it is not like the CIE one which was very very vague and they did not respond to comments and jumped around questions asked and did not provide information

If you can post any info that you get that’d be much appreciated, assuming they do provide information.

tick tok

What is the above piture of?

http://www.herald.ie/national-news/city-news/moving-statues-but-spire-stays-put-for-subway-work-1431406.html

How is the arch at Stephen’s Green to be moved, surely it’d collapse if it were moved

It will be dismantled, stored and reassembled. It’s been done many times before – for example the entrance to the Museum of Modern Art was moved from the liffey quays well over a century ago when carriage traffic to and from Heuston Station got too heavy.

yesterdays news…

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/traffic-ban-to-create-pedestrian-spine-through-the-heart-of-dublin-1458482.html

By Paul Melia

Tuesday August 19 2008

TRAFFIC is to be completely banned from the Grafton Street corner of Dublin’s St Stephen’s Green when a public plaza is created as part of works for the Metro North light-rail system.

The Railway Procurement Agency is currently in discussions with Dublin City Council about creating the plaza at the top of the city’s premier shopping street, which could see the whole area transformed into a pedestrian-only area.

And yesterday it emerged the Fusilier’s Arch at the entrance to St Stephen’s Green will have be removed for four years during construction works.

The statue of Daniel O’Connell on the capital’s main thoroughfare will also be temporarily removed during the construction of underground stations.

No decision has been made as to where to relocate the iconic statue during the four years of building work, but it is planned to re-instate it once the stations are completed.

And it has emerged that more than 40 mature trees will have to be removed from St Stephen’s Green to accommodate an underground station, work on which is expected to start next year.

The RPA’s chief architect, Jim Quinlan, last night outlined the vision for St Stephen’s Green and the city centre after works are complete and Metro North is up and running.

“We want to try and declutter that area and create a public plaza,” he told the Irish Independent.

“It’s already a great place for people to meet and we’re going to remove traffic and create a much more pedestrian zone with more, and better, street furniture.

“We’ll move the bike stands to create space, and we’ll have to figure out where to put the horse and carts, taxis and bikes.

“It’s a fantastic opportunity and it could be extended to College Green and Westmoreland Street because we’re digging that up as well. It’s a great opportunity to create a pedestrian spine through the heart of the city.”

But parts of St Stephen’s Green will be changed forever, with up to 45 mature trees removed to facilitate construction of the underground station. Three small ‘boxes’ or escape hatches will also be built within the park walls, while air vents will be located on the island in the middle of the lake.

However a ‘living wall’ will be created, which will see plants and shrubbery shielding the vents from park users over time. “St Stephen’s Green can’t go back exactly as it was, there will be some vents on the island, but they’ll be disguised,” he said.

“A lot of the trees in place need a lot of root space, and we’re working with the Office of Public Works to see what species can go back in. We think 44 or 45 mature trees will have to be removed.”

Mr Quinlan, who is leaving the RPA later this week to take up a new position as chief architect with the Dubai light rail project, also said he expected the project to be delivered by its 2014 deadline.

But he admitted the construction works would be painful, and that “hundreds of acres” of land would be needed for the project. “There’s radar mapping now which tells us exactly what’s underground,” he said. “We’ll need quite a lot of land, but we’ve tried to ensure we’re under public roads and land. Traffic management will have an impact on the city, and it (disruption) will be more than Luas.

“St Stephen’s Green, O’Connell Street, Parnell Square, the Mater and Drumcondra all present big problems. Abbey Street to the Quays will have to be dug up, and some side streets will be closed off in Drumcondra. The 2014 deadline is a big call, it’s very complex but we’re taking an optimistic view. Some things are out of our hands, and planning could take longer (than expected).” Construction works will start at a number of locations across the city, assuming An Bord Pleanala approve the project, he added.

– Paul Melia

Apparently the applications have been pushed back too january for the four firms bidding for the project.(acording to this mornings metro)

Lets hope that the whole project is built as one entity with the interconnector as many of the finalised plans include the interchange and its impossible to rip up the park again.

If all things go ahead, we might not see these projects a year apart, but they WILL be built. Even if it does take longer. The interconnector is essential for the future of the dart, the metro north however does have opostition.

The metro might not have an easily excessible stop at the airport and its capacity may be far smaller than it should be for services too the airport as well as commuter services too the “city” of swords and future developments too the north.

I for one hate the idea of a underground tram. But if they build the stations with room for change and build it too the same gauge as the luas and metro west, or go all out and make it Irish gauge, then there’s hope for the future.:rolleyes:

I’m starting to think that we will never see a pre-application file made public?
I think the minister for transport got put in a difficult position by the RPA and CIE to some extent
What the minister for environment will have to say no body knows…
If the bids are just to get a ballpark figure then that is fine but I would assume they don’t want to award the contracts until they have a railway order in place… They are probable beefing up the EIS making a nice fancy model for a photo shoot. I just hope the whole project is not rammed through in a kodak moment while santa is eating cookies. Time will tell… as long as the public get a fair trial…

I gave up writing letters to them along time ago… now they will get drawings…

Letters about what, design I’m guessing because the decisions have been taken about what lines are going where, it’s called Transport 21 and the RPA’s (and Iarnrod’s) objective is to deliver it, plain and simple

Metro North put back to Feb 2009

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=IRELAND-qqqm=news-qqqid=35730-qqqx=1.asp

Sunday, September 07, 2008 By Nicola Cooke
The bidders for the Metro North rail project have been told that the date for the submission of tenders has been extended by more than two months to February next year.

Would it be safe to say the whole application will be available online on DCC’s website…

one would think so 3 days after the application is lodged…
you never know it might even be invalidated!!! 😉
it appears too late to add Fingal council to applicants for the consultation?
I want to know if bono is going to request anything for his 150k contribution…

It appears the rpa are giving planning drawings out to tenants in the city which is a good sign 😉

@missarchi wrote:

Would it be safe to say the whole application will be available online on DCC’s website…

one would think so 3 days after the application is lodged…
you never know it might even be invalidated!!! 😉
it appears too late to add Fingal council to applicants for the consultation?
I want to know if bono is going to request anything for his 150k contribution…

Do you mean the Railway Order has gone in, it can be hard to follow your posts some times.

the railway order I don’t know about that yet…

I know tenants around the city have been giving large format drawings I’ll have more info tomorrow.

So apparently the Railway Order application is going to posted here:

http://www.dublinmetronorth.ie/

on the 17 Sept.

Yeah Newspaper Notice was published yesterday.

Metro work to disrupt two major hospitals

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0912/1221138437499.html

Application on / after Sept 17th, 🙂

Metro North documents to be lodged

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0913/1221235786679.html

TIM O’BRIEN
THOUSANDS OF Dubliners are expected to seek copies of the planning application for Metro North when it is lodged with An Bord Pleanála on Wednesday.

The planning application – officially an application for a Railway Order – is to be accompanied by an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) which contains details of disturbance caused by the construction of the 18km, partly underground, rail line linking Swords and Dublin airport with St Stephen’s Green.

The EIS will look at disturbance to traffic and trade as well as to hospitals, community organisations, schools and parks.

The application and the EIS will be available at An Bord Pleanála’s headquarters in Marlborough Street as well as at Fingal County Council offices in Swords, Dublin’s Civic Offices on Wood Quay, Ballymun Regeneration on Ballymun Road and from the Railway Procurement Agency at Parkgate Street.

An Bord Pleanála will accept submissions on the project until October 29th and is expected to then hold an oral hearing which may take several weeks. A decision on the application is expected by next autumn.

The Railway Procurement Agency has refused to say how much the five-year construction project is set to cost, citing commercial sensitivities as the tendering process is under way.

according to platform 11 it went in this after!

It’ll take till next autum to make a decision? that’s a whole year. Even if they start work right away, it could be 2015 before it’s operational. The interconnector could be open before it

The interconnector hasn’t gone to RO yet, the tenders aren’t out either, how ever long Metro North will take, the interconnector will take longer.

Well not much has changed at the green…
I wonder what the Irish Landscape institute have to say will they make a submission?

Check it out, the Stephens Green ticket area will have “granite slabs symbolising arch above”.

http://www.dublinmetronorth.ie/Downloads/PlanofProposedWorks/06-StructuresDCCBook%202of2/19-LMN000TO107018A.pdf

Does anyone have any thoughts about the station design/materials used? The airport station entrance and drumcondra building look pretty bad from the elevations….

you could have a bigger greener arch 😉
the airport is a bit…
drumcondra could be a red brick arch like little ita
http://www.dublinmetronorth.ie/Downloads/PlanofProposedWorks/03-StructuresFingalBook%201of4/29-LMN000PK101006A.pdf

The Post has the metro stopping at the airport and going over ground through Ballymun, disappointing for Swords if this happens and potentially awkward for the Metro itself since stopping at the airport will have a large effect on passenger journeys. I guess this should only be a temporary delay for the full plan.

interesting…

http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/Heritage/NationalMonuments/FileDownLoad,2253,en.pdf

State to scale back Metro project
The Sunday Business Post, 21st Sept 08

The government looks set to dramatically scale back the €1.2 billion Metro North project linking Dublin city to the airport, and is also poised to axe the proposed Metro West project.

The move follows discussions between Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance, last week in light of the slump in government finances.

Further discussions will be held with cabinet colleagues in the days ahead, but sources believe that Noel Dempsey, Minister for Transport, and his senior officials are fighting for the bulk of the existing plan to be maintained.

A range of other projects in the National Development Plan are also set to be delayed or shelved as part of a wide-ranging review. Transport protects will be given priority, while several non-transport projects will now be cancelled indefinitely.

Large portions of the Metro North project, one of the most ambitions infrastructure projects in the history of the state, were originally intended to be built underground.

This now looks unlikely to happen as a range of other less costly options come onto the table.

Much of the scaled down project may now be built above ground in an effort to cut costs, with a range of options of how to achieve this, including running trams on specific sealed off road areas, now under consideration.

Advisers believe the decision will reduce the estimated €4.5 billion cost by hundreds of millions of euro.

@SunnyDub wrote:

State to scale back Metro project
The Sunday Business Post, 21st Sept 08

The government looks set to dramatically scale back the €1.2 billion Metro North project linking Dublin city to the airport, and is also poised to axe the proposed Metro West project.

The move follows discussions between Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance, last week in light of the slump in government finances.

Further discussions will be held with cabinet colleagues in the days ahead, but sources believe that Noel Dempsey, Minister for Transport, and his senior officials are fighting for the bulk of the existing plan to be maintained.

A range of other projects in the National Development Plan are also set to be delayed or shelved as part of a wide-ranging review. Transport protects will be given priority, while several non-transport projects will now be cancelled indefinitely.

Large portions of the Metro North project, one of the most ambitions infrastructure projects in the history of the state, were originally intended to be built underground.

This now looks unlikely to happen as a range of other less costly options come onto the table.

Much of the scaled down project may now be built above ground in an effort to cut costs, with a range of options of how to achieve this, including running trams on specific sealed off road areas, now under consideration.

Advisers believe the decision will reduce the estimated €4.5 billion cost by hundreds of millions of euro.

that might just be good news. only solution now: pedestrian the entire city centre and build an extensive network of trams. i support metro systems but frankly if it’s going to cost that much then maybe trams are a better option, as long as they’re segregated from traffic.

Best tactic on Metro is to keep digging

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/0925/1222207741242.html

OPINION Any cutback on building an integrated transport system in Dublin would end up being costly, writes John Gibbons

Thank goodness then for Transport 21. Admittedly, it’s far from perfect, with a ludicrous €1.2 billion motorway from Dublin to Waterford (population barely 40,000). But no matter, at least our congested and rapidly growing capital will finally get a proper public transport system.

Or will it? Heavy hints have been dropped in recent days that the guts are to be pulled out of Transport 21. Not the motorway folly, of course, but the dismemberment of a desperately needed integrated Dublin public transport system. And if you think congestion is bad right now, the Central Statistics Office projects that by 2021, there will be over two million people in the greater Dublin area

I have to agree. How can we expect to come out of a recession without proper transport. SurelyT21 should be the most important step in bringing back our competitiveness

You’d have to start wondering about the consortiums bidding for this, their finance must now either be a lot more expensive or not going to happen…they should dump the ppp, cut public spending and keep some capital spending for transport & other infrastructure me thinks

strike the pose! move and make monuments…
maybe we can get some bronze entrances I still think the green is Dublin’s greatest attraction…
the Irish times clock looks very similar style to another sign ortem
I still cannot find if bikes will be allowed on outside of peak hour…

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0929/1222420015092.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0929/1222420015052.html

If this is still on after the budget, ill eat my hat

Metro North is still on track but there’s no time of arrival

Irish Independent
Tuesday, 7 October 2008

DUBLIN’S €3.7bn Metro North rail system is going ahead — but Transport Minister Noel Dempsey can’t say when.

Mr Dempsey yesterday qualified his backing for the huge project saying the system would only be built if it came though a stringent cost-benefit analysis next year.

The minister also raised the spectre of lengthy delays, saying the Transport 21 plan would “be an even better idea in three or four years when we move out of recession”.

He admitted money was not there for other transport schemes included in the National Development Plan (NDP). Some projects could now face postponement or the chop.

“The procedure is, and always was, that once the tenders are there, there would be negotiations and the final price would be decided at that stage,” he said. “It will get its usual appraisal, value for money, cost benefit analysis and if it meets those, it will go ahead.

“That’s the way it was, that’s the way it is, and that’s the way it will be.”

The minister was speaking at the launch of airline CityJet’s new €6m hangar at Dublin airport, a project he said underlined the need to plan for the future.

But he appeared to hedge his backing of Dublin’s future transport needs, as speculation continues that Metro North from St Stephen’s Green to Swords could fall victim to the State’s collapsing finances.

In August, before the full extent of the credit crisis became apparent, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan met with the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) — which is overseeing the project — to say Metro North would go ahead.

Informed sources said the Government wanted to send out the message that the project would go ahead so the four bidders would submit the best price.

Bidders

Yesterday, bidders said that as far as they were aware, the project was still going ahead. But Mr Dempsey said other projects could be scaled back, or indefinitely postponed.

“We haven’t as much money as we expected. We prefaced everything in our programme for Government on a 4.5pc increase in income,” he said.

“We obviously haven’t that, we are going to be in deficit next year and that will affect our spending plans.

“The NDP and Transport 21 was a good idea when it was put in place. It’s still a good idea and it will be an even better idea in three or four years’ time when we move out of recession.

“We may have to delay some projects, we may have to postpone some of them but we’re not talking at this stage of abandoning any projects, giving up on any of the projects.

“I intend, in the NDP, to continue planning and providing money for various projects in Transport 21, but start-up dates in some cases may be deferred.”

The RPA, which has already spent €33m planning the project, has sought planning permission for the line and the successful bidder is not expected to be announced before next month. After that, they will negotiate with the RPA over the final price and this process could run into next year.

Any delay could have serious effects for those investing along the Metro route — critics say a postponement would send a signal that Ireland is not investing in infrastructure.

Mr Dempsey said the tendering process would be completed on February 6 next.

“When the tenders are finalised, there will be the usual capital appraisal and subject to that, yes, it is a project that is going to go ahead and one the Government is very much committed to,” he added.

Ciaran Byrne and Paul Melia
Irish Independent

This year’s annual RIAI jaunt to somewhere trendy has given Frank McDonald another opportunity to extol the virtues of a tram system over a metro. I’d be interested to here the informed views on this subject of anyone who trampled their carbon footprints all over Bordeaux last weekend.

For what it’s worth, and not having had the inclination, or the credid card capacity, to slip over to Bordeaux, I think McDonald makes a good case.

Bordeaux’s tram system puts city on the right track« Prev 1/2 Next »

Bordeaux’s tram network really does knit the city together – including new areas like La Bastide, (other picture) – while its design involved teams of engineers, architects, urban designers and experts on street furniture to produce a total network packageUnlike Dublin’s ‘modest’ Luas network, a much more comprehensive approach to designing its tram system has utterly changed Bordeaux for the better, writes Frank McDonald Environment Editor

© 2008 The Irish Times

He makes a good case for Bordeaux’s tram system and for good planning and street maintenance, he never explains what is wrong with a metro; the calculation is that a Luas won’t have the capacity to serve Swords and the airport, a metro will.

notjim: his last sentence says what he sees as wrong with Metro North

It will cost a multiple of the Luas equivalent and it, ”(in effect) will put Luas in a tunnel without in any way civilising the streets”

That is the point, isn’t it?

That and the fact that, as the funding dries up, we’ll be left with a transport system that consists of a little bit of this and a little bit of that and a comprehensive network of nothing except buses, just like now.

And I at least partly agree, I am a great fan of the potential of tram systems to civilize streets and hope we develop the Luas into a tram system; however, if a line to Swords and the airport requires greater capacity than a tram can supply: a metro is required. An intergrated system can have more than one modality.

@notjim wrote:

. . . if a line to Swords and the airport requires greater capacity than a tram can supply: a metro is required.

Or two trams?

If the capacity demand is that high, why not two routes to cover Swords and the airport, serve a wider catchment area and civilise a few more streets.

Again, that would normally be what I would say, but it is hard to imagine two lines from Swords to town that make sense, the distinction is between linking urban centers and serving an urban area.

@notjim wrote:

. . . but it is hard to imagine two lines from Swords to town that make sense,

Without getting out the maps and burning up brain cells that may be needed for something else, it is perhaps hard to imagine two lines from Swords to town that make sense, but is there not a well fed transportation consultant out there somewhere, engaged on a hefty retainer, who’s job it is to imagine a couple of lines from Swords to town that would make sense?

Perhaps, perhaps, but aren’t they the same well-fed consultants who recommended the metro for transport 21?

Metro North will have a max capacity of around 20,000 passengers per hour

frank makes very valid points…

I say lets have both!
there is another station proposal with the board if any one cares to fish it out…

Well, it looks like we’re getting neither, “metro postponed” except they can keep planning it! Existing Luas projects and motorways will continue, defeat for the greens me thinks.

So instead of putting people to work on our infrastructure during a downturn the government intends to pay people to sit on the dole and give people even more mortgage interest relief, unbelievable 😡

Even Boris Johnson recognises that a recession is a golden opportunity to build up our infrastructure like Roosevelt did in the great depression. Instead current gov spending remains a joke & we all have to pay for it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/14/do1401.xml

I don’t know why you think that SunnyDub, in fact your post is super misleading and annoying not being based in any facts: they are budgeting to continue planning and enabling works, that is all that would have ever happened next year and generally they have a capital cut but they haven’t said where it will fall so I guess they will just negotiate individual contracts to cause the required delays, they are also cutting regional road building.

Here is what it says on the transport departmental website:

This will enable progress on a wide range of projects, including:

* Luas extensions to Cherrywood, Docklands and Citywest;
* Planning and enabling works on Metro North;
* Planning works for the DART Interconnector.
* Improved bus priority measures in Dublin and the regional cities;
* The completion of the Middleton rail line
* Phase 1 of the Western Rail Corridor from Ennis to Athenry;
* The construction of the Kildare Route project
* Phase 1 of the Navan rail line;
* The continuation of Iarnród Éireann’s railway safety programme;
* The start of the Dublin city centre rail re-signalling programme;
* Continued roll-out of new railcars on the intercity routes;

Other notable projects that will be continued into 2009 are:

* The Rural Transport Programme (now operating in every county and will provide more than million passenger journeys in 2009)
* The Green Schools Programme (targeting 140,000 school kids by providing walking/cycling/public transport alternatives to get to school).

Has anyone spotted the planning authorities comments…DCC that is I mean its not on there website or in the EIS…

I find it funny that we are going to spend a few billion and the public will not even be able to comment on the Planning authorites findings…

be interesting what the cad say

There will be eight new blocks varying in height from four to seven storeys with two basement levels, one of them linked directly to the proposed Metro North stop at Ballymun Road.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/commercialproperty/2008/1022/1224454449863.html

I will be proved right, I’ll bet there’ll be no funding for anything other than planning in 2009, so they’ll be dependent on an allocation for 2010, me thinks – conjecture.

State slashes PPP target by a quarter amid funding chaos
Sunday Tribune
Sun 19th Oct 2008

THE GOVERNMENT has slashed its forecast for public-private partnership (PPP) investment in infrastructure up to 2012 by over 25% amid a rapid deterioration in finance availability for PPP schemes.

According to Mathias Pahlke, the head of European infrastructure at leading PPP player Nord/LB, it has become almost impossible to raise finance for schemes worth more than €100 million.

His comments raise the prospect that Irish PPP schemes such as Metro North, the rail interconnector and the school building programme may be hampered by the ongoing banking crisis.

“Large projects have got problems because they now need banks more than in the past. Because of the current situation, the number of banks willing to lend is limited and the syndication methods for spreading risk among banks have stalled,” said Pahlke.

Pahlke said that were funding was available, it was considerably more expensive than previously, meaning projects were costing more and were missing affordability targets.

“The spreads are risen. Previously, you could get funding for 70-80 basis points above Libor, now its more likely to be 170-180 basis points,” he said.

Pahlke said that he was confident the market would recover within five years but said that the cost of funding would remain high.

But one source said that finance could soon become an issue as there were serious doubts about the availability of long-term funding for major projects throughout Europe.

“Once the banks start lending again though, public infrastructure projects will be the sort of opportunities they will be looking for but the lending terms may never be as good as before”.

Bank of Ireland, which has supported Irish PPP bidders in the past, said that it believed that PPPs remained a “very strong asset class”.

A bank spokeswoman said, however, that it was clear that PPPs “will not remain fully insulated from the general tightening of credit markets”.

She indicated that the bank believed that the protracted procurement processes involved for some PPPs would “increase the challenges associated with certainty of funding, and the terms and pricing of that funding”.

The Department of Finance declined to comment.

However, some industry sources have indicated that the €2.3 billion cut in PPP forecasts, which was made last week, may also have been down to planning and procurement delays to specific projects.

Status: Case is due to be decided by 3rd
March, 2009

Last day for making a submission to the Board: 29th
October, 2008

Fingal also now in on the act… Still no comments from DCC… I think it is quite confusing/misleading how part of the case number completly changes even though its the same project… Its interesting to note the EIS says bike racks are overprescibed but does nothing to mitigate this.

http://www.pleanala.ie/casenum/NA0003.htm

Fingal County Council

Construction, operation and maintainence of a light railway Belinstown,North County Dublin to St. Stephen’s Green.

Case reference: PL06F.NA0003

Case type: Railway Order Application

Status: Case is due to be decided by 03-03-2009
Parties

* Railway Procurement Agency (Applicant)

* Dublin City Council (Local Authority) (Active)
* Fingal County Council (Local Authority) (Active)

History

* 18/09/2008: Lodged

Documents

* Schedule of Correspondence (NA0/CNA0003.pdf, PDF Format 15kB)

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/budget-2009/news/funding-pledged–to-keep-projects-on-track-1499612.html

By Patricia McDonagh

Thursday October 16 2008

TRANSPORT Minister Noel Dempsey yesterday insisted “substantial funding” would be provided to ensure work continues on Dublin’s Metro North railway system.

He said funding would also be made available to progress the DART Interconnector, an underground DART line which will run through the heart of Dublin city centre.

The move follows speculation about the fate of both projects in light of the flagging economy.

Mr Dempsey said that, despite constrained economic circumstances, the Government would not stop planning and providing for future public transport solutions.

Both projects would provide a greater increase in public transport capacity and transform the public transport system in the greater Dublin area.

Metro North — which work will start on in 2010 — will carry 34 million passengers per year when it opens and will eventually be able to carry more than 200 million passengers per year.

The DART Interconnector, meanwhile, will remove a major bottleneck in the Dublin rail system and facilitate more than 100 million passengers per year.

“In this Budget, the advanced works plus the planning for Metro North and for the DART Interconnector continue,” he told the Dail during his speech on the Budget estimates for the Department of Transport.

“Provisions have been made to continue work on the critical public transport projects of Metro North and the Dart Interconnector. The 2009 estimates include substantial funding provision for these works.”

The Department of Transport last night said €255m was being made available to the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) to allow work to continue on these projects and others.

Mr Dempsey said the RPA applied last month to An Bord Pleanala for a railway order for Metro North and said the public private partnership tenders will be be submitted to the RPA in early February.

Once the railway order is in force, the RPA will commence enabling works for the public private partnership project.

Progress

On the DART Interconnector, the minister said he had made it clear to CIE that he wanted good progress on planning for the project maintained, and if possible accelerated.

During the Dail debate, the minister sought to defend the decision to scrap some projects as a result of the economic nose-dive.

The N11 Arklow to Rathnew in Co Wicklow is one of six road projects that has been put on the long finger in light of the downturn. Others include the Longford bypass and the Oranmore to Gort road in Co Galway.

This situation was “not ideal” but it was inevitable in the current difficult economic environment, Mr Dempsey said.

He pointed out his department was spending around €900m on public transport investment, compared to €12m in 1997.

– Patricia McDonagh

7.2. Metro Passes

RfR request that as a gesture of good will an annual pass be granted to each house under which the tunnels run. The passes would remain a feature of the house and pass on in any subsequent resale.

7.9. 3-D Models

RfR request that all residents have access to 3D models of stations and crossovers as the EIS and RPA have failed to produce adequate information to date.

😀

im buying;)

http://www.res4real.com/_mgxroot/page_10813.html

missarchi: you often have interesting information in your posts but you make it so hard to work out what it is; why not just explain that the last post was a quote from the “residents for realignment” submission to the railway order. As for the residents for realignment, the stupid greed, they, we in fact, are getting a metro connection for the city centre and they expect free passes. so annoying.

I was at an RPA talk in TCD during the week, nothing so surprising; one point I hadn’t fully appreciated is the the O’Connell bridge stop will only be partly mined, the bit under the river; it will effectively have two station boxes which will be excavated from the surface and then a large connecting tunnel will be mined between them, running between the tracks with cross tunnels giving access to the platforms. They also talked a bit about the Lifffey bridge, they are hoping to have it up by Q4 2009, with three spans in a similar pattern to OC bridge itself, the permanent bridge will be built to the immeadiate west of the temporary one and will be ready in 2011 and at that point the temporary bridge will come down.

around 115 submissions

I still cannot understand how DCC scan and upload most submissions but the board dont???
I mean a higher authority and standards? it makes it easy for everyone?

around 200 submissions and some prominent people and businesses/organizations…

http://www.pleanala.ie/documents/controls/NA0/CNA0003.pdf

2 choices on how to spend €4.5bn option 1 build an underground Luas line or double the capitalisation of the three largest banks?

result 1 build a white elephant that services 4 square miles of city centre, 8 square miles of urban sprawl, 2 square miles of airport / ancillary carpark and 6 sq miles of suburban sprawl and a town centre (Swords)

result 2 get the banks lending and let the economy recover over time.

so you think that instead of vastly improving public transport, and therefor the economy that we should give tax payers money to private financial institutions in the hope that they’ll be so kind as to lend money to businesses (at a profit because they earn interest off that) to kick start the economy even though the current financial crisis is very much outside the controll of Irish banks and the Irish government. Why do so many people advocate socialising banking losses and capitalizing their profits?

PVC King: can we not stick to the tradition of debating MN on the other thread and giving planning news on this one?

the RPA have been very busy updating there website.
I told you it was on the website!

October 2008 – Dublin Metro North First Report of Independent Experts on Tunnelling.pdf(2.92MB)
http://www.rpa.ie/cms/download.asp?id=884

Q. Can the public see the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)?

A. The Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) Scoping Report is available on the RPA website. This sets out the issues that will be considered during the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. The Metro North EIA is ongoing at the moment.

The actual EIS Report won’t be complete until the end of 2007. This will be made available to the public. This is the document which presents all of the information assessed as part of the EIA.

http://www.rpa.ie/?id=327

Q. Can I take my bike on Metro North?

A. No. It is a policy of RPA that all capacity on Luas and Metro is for passengers and not taken up by bicycles. Bike racks will be provided at stations.

Public consultation is ongoing and comments are invited on design options for Metro North. More information will be added to this page as it becomes available.To request additional information or submit your comments please do so by clicking Contact Us or you can e-mail us on info@rpa.ie

This list has changed so many times.
So I have decided to attached the most current one once and for all.
Dublin City Council and Fingal managed to somehow sneak in.

I’m afraid I still don’t quite get the way things are done about these important projects.

The relevant, recent, documents which have been so far been released about this project stated that the last date for submissions to ABP would be the 29th of October.

Yet the two local councils which are directly affected make their submissions on the 26th of November? Almost a month late.

I’m sure both bodies were aware that the project was in the pipeline, and Fingal’s recent presentation to the Oireachtas Committee on Transport would appear to confirm that this was the case.

So what does ABP mean by “the deadline for submissions”?:confused:

@Seamus O’G wrote:

So what does ABP mean by “the deadline for submissions”?:confused:

http://www.pleanala.ie/sid/sidpa.htm
http://www.pleanala.ie/sid/sidapp.htm

are they different or is it just me? pa planning authority…
anyway with one the public can comment the other they cannot.. SEA???

Action 12
We will Ensure bus services are redesigned to provide for:
• – Carriage of bicycles on buses

http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/Smarter_Travel_5_feb_2009.pdf

friendly competition 😉

I’d be interested to see how that would work. Some sort of rack on the back of the bus perhaps?

I have seen some better methods around but here we go for review…

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expeditionplus/403483789/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expeditionplus/403483862/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expeditionplus/403484063/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bikesontransit/36681754/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/2546974113/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/2463166225/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/futursimple/2036982304/ hmmm…

http://www.flickr.com/photos/futursimple/2036982304/ dc
http://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/552703852/ no bike tickets
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mr_t_in_dc/642501589/

9th February 2009 – An Bord Pleanala Confirm Metro North Preliminary Hearing

On 9th February 2009, An Bord Pleanála confirmed to RPA that the Metro North Preliminary Hearing will take place on 2nd March 2009 in Croke Park. The Inspector has been named as Mr Kevin Moore.

Click here to view or download letter received on 12th February 2009 by RPA from An Bord Pleanála confirming Notice of Oral Hearing

http://www.rpa.ie/en/news/Pages/MetroNorthPreliminaryHearing.aspx
http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/MN%20Documents/12Feb09MetroNorthABP3787NoticeOfOralHearing.pdf

TENDERS

http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/MN%20Press/MN%20Press%20Releases/Metro%20North%20Press%20Release%20-%20Tender%20Bids%20Recieved%20270209.pdf

how many cubic metres of concrete?

The fantasy continues, rising taxes, cuts in services and probable public sector pay cuts accross the board; yet the metro for which there are no funds for whatsoever continues apace. Outdone only by the instruction of Buro Happold (who I recently disinstructed on an unrelated project on the basis of cost and slow service) on Metro West.

Please tell me I am going to wake up and find GDP growing at 8%, Anglo shares at €17 and Waterford Crystal owned by Sir Anthony and institutional funds.

1980 comes back and there is even less spine at the top this time. S & P are watching

How long does it take after prelimenary hearing for real hearing to start?

PVC King, as far as I’m aware, money was already set aside a few years ago for the enabling works. And DCC have made provisions for those works to take place this year. Also as far as i know some developers with interests in building along the route have to contribute €€€€ to construction works

Also as far as i know some developers with interests in building along the route have to contribute €€€€ to construction works

I’ve no doubt if we were discussing this 2 years ago that would be true; in the current market everything is driven by cashflow and the funding position of the main banks and their reliance on short term commercial papaer has meant that they are simply not extending development finance to pay even day to day bills unless projects are more than 50% built. Development levies like this make a lot of sense in a market where there is demand and developers can raise finance those days are unfortunately not around at present.

I can also see DCC reprovisioning any sums set aside to make up for the major shortfall in business rates that will hit as large numbers of small businesses close.

Committing billions to this project in the absence of development levies and rising taxes sends out all the wrong signals. This project should be shelved until the funds are there to pay for it; that is presuming it ever stacks up.

As for Metro West, how did that like the Citywest Luas line ever get approved let alone the latter being built. Brian Cowen’s build it and they will come line on the front of the times last month was just hilarious. Almost up there with Bertie’s ‘The Boom just got Boomier’ quip.

Lets make sure the bust does end up getting lingeried into a bustier

well it’ll be difficult to recover from recession without good public transport.

There won’t be any recovery for a decade unless spending is reigned in; if you raise taxes to build gold plated projects employers will go and find cheaper people elsewhere.

I am all for public transport of a high standard but now is not the time to give emmigrants a €3bn fast ticket out.

How can anyone justify a metro line from Tallaght to Dublin Airport at any time; how can 300 plus redundancies at Dublin Bus be justified to provide an over-speced metro line that won’t be delivered for another 6 plus years.

I agree you need public transport in a recession and not bus drivers on the dole to fund endless consultancy on a project for which there are no funds. Adam Smith hit the nail on the head in the Wealth of Nations it is all about the division of scarce resources and now that derivative money has been cruelly replaced by real money hard choices are required in the division of those really scarce resources and many hungry interest groups to be fed.

@cgcsb wrote:

How long does it take after prelimenary hearing for real hearing to start?

PVC King, as far as I’m aware, money was already set aside a few years ago for the enabling works. And DCC have made provisions for those works to take place this year. Also as far as i know some developers with interests in building along the route have to contribute €€€€ to construction works

I think that part of the problem is that the supplementary development contributions are only payable in the event that the levied development actually commences.

Even 3/4 months ago development projects along the corridor were being put on ice. It’s worse now – so much more of the money to pay for the line will have to come from Government. Not going to happen in the short to medium term I suspect.

I still think that Government should proceed to full planning stage and then hope that things will pick up after that.

@publicrealm wrote:

I still think that Government should proceed to full planning stage and then hope that things will pick up after that.

I disagree on the basis of

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0302/1224242083966.html

Tenders for Metro North to be lower due to falling costs

FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor

FOUR TENDERS for Metro North received by the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) last Friday are likely to be substantially lower than anticipated because of an estimated 20 per cent fall in construction costs.

The project, known to have been costed at €4.58 billion in 2004, would directly create between 5,000 and 7,000 jobs and would represent “the type of economic stimulus that Ireland needs at the moment”, said RPA chief executive Frank Allen.

A preliminary oral hearing on the agency’s draft Railway Order for Metro North, an 18km mainly underground line linking Swords with St Stephen’s Green, opens today in Croke Park before Kevin Moore, senior planning inspector with Bord Pleanála.

More than 300 submissions have been made, mostly in support of the project, after the draft Railway Order was submitted to the appeals board last September, Mr Allen said. “It’s at an advanced stage of the planning process so now is the time to move ahead.”

Procurement of Metro North was also “at a critical stage”, with some 600 boxes of tender submissions from the four “preferred bidders” – Irish and international consortiums with experience of tunnelling projects. These are to be evaluated in the coming months.

“Value for money is far greater now than it was even a year ago,” Mr Allen said, adding that an index compiled by the Society of Chartered Surveyors showed that there had been a 20 per cent drop in construction tender prices.

After the four tenders are evaluated, he said the RPA would invite two of the consortiums to submit “best and final offers” in July, with a view to choosing one of them for submission to the Government by the end of this year.

Mr Allen explained that under the public-private partnership deal being contemplated by the RPA, Metro North would be paid for over a 25-year period.

He said each bidder would have spent €10 million on their tenders. “It would send an important message internationally if the Government decided to proceed without delay on the project. But it would be very damaging if it didn’t.”

There is concern that with the Government facing an €11 billion shortfall in the public finances, Metro North could be a casualty.

This article appears in the print edition of the Irish Times

Bord Pleanála to hire experts to assess Metro North plan

TIM O’BRIEN

Bord Pleanála is to hire its own experts in the areas of noise, traffic, vibration and ground settlement in assessing the Railway Procurement Agency’s plans for Metro north, the preliminary inquiry into the metro was told this morning.

Opening what he said was a “housekeeping” session to decide on the running order for the inquiry in Dublin’s Croke Park today, Bord Pleanála senior planning inspector Kevin Moore said there had been almost 200 formal observations on plans for the 18 kilometre route from St Stephen’s Green to north of Swords, eight kilometres of which is to be underground.

James Connolly SC for the Railway Procurement Agency told the hearing he expected the case in favour of Dublin’s first metro route would take about six days to outline.

Others who are seeking time at the hearing include the Mater Hospital, schools, An Taisce, Iarnród Éireann, Fingal and Dublin City councils, Dublin Airport Authority, traders associations and individual residents associations.

The inquiry will also provide a period for cross-examination of witnesses which is expected to be considerable.

Colm Costello for the CIE group said negotiations between the procurement agency and the CIE group were ongoing and their success would impact on how much time the group would need to make its observations.

Mr Moore told the inquiry that once the running order and likely timescale for the inquiry proper was established, each of the parties would be advised in writing of the probable length and venue of the inquiry.

An environmental impact statement (EIS) on the project last September predicted the effects expected from the construction of the Metro line could include serious impacts on sensitive equipment at the Rotunda and Mater hospitals, and the possibility that the Mater may have to make alternative arrangements for operations.

and

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0227/1224241894653.html

“We will look at which infrastructure projects can be safely deferred or abandoned. That means that some projects, like the metro projects in Dublin, would be put on the back-burner. We would scrap the old National Development Plan and reprioritise smaller, labour-intensive projects that can keep as many tradesmen and builders employed as possible.”

no architecture 😡

@missarchi wrote:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0302/1224242083966.html

Tenders for Metro North to be lower due to falling costs

FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor

FOUR TENDERS for Metro North received by the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) last Friday are likely to be substantially lower than anticipated because of an estimated 20 per cent fall in construction costs.

Why isn’t this information in the public domain; estimated is simply not good enough the costs are either estimated or a formal offer. Basing 2004 costs of €4.58 billion with inflation of 4% p.a. for 4 years a figure of €5.36bn would result that is assuming RPI and not SCS construction costs which were much higher are adopted; discount 20% from 2008 figures and the costs would be €4.469bn.

A sum of money the country simply doesn’t have to throw at a single unintegrated rail line nor does it have the €3.81bn that a 20% decline from 2004 costs would suggest.

The issuance of bland generalities has to stop and the actual consequences financially of a departing government potentially signing this off on their last day in office need to be clarified .

http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=DJI:DJI

Well, you’d have to travel about 100 lengths of the metro route to find such a mangled concatenation of pretentious misinformed horsesh*te as is in this thread.
There’s enough hot gas to make the thing a levitating train service.
Since MN will cost no real money until built (2015) and then is paid over 25 yrs the whole tedious pontificating waffling is rendered defunct.
Obviously people who need to be rescued from the fantasy world of the net and get out a bit.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0227/1224241892788.html

Anyone see this opinion letter in the Irish Times sometime last week by enda kenny? Absolutely shocking, he was ranting on about what he’d do if he were Taoiseach. He said that he’d immediately shelve Metro North as many current public infastructure projects that current government are going ahead with are going to further damage the economy under the current economic climate…almost makes Fianna Fail look attractive again, Kenny’s a gob****e in my opinion. 7000 guaranteed jobs will be created in constructing the metro. Construction’s going to last what? 5 years? we’ll be out of the recession(hopefully) by then and with a much more effective public transport system in Dublin. Wasn’t a major mistake in the last recession not investing more heavily in large public transport projects?

@marmajam wrote:

Well, you’d have to travel about 100 lengths of the metro route to find such a mangled concatenation of pretentious misinformed horsesh*te as is in this thread.
There’s enough hot gas to make the thing a levitating train service.
Since MN will cost no real money until built (2015) and then is paid over 25 yrs the whole tedious pontificating waffling is rendered defunct.
Obviously people who need to be rescued from the fantasy world of the net and get out a bit.

Fantasy was Anglo at €17

Please set out the cahsflow analysis of your funding model or disapear to one post wonderland

Billions it would cost millions will emigrate if it is sanctioned

@layo wrote:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0227/1224241892788.html

Anyone see this opinion letter in the Irish Times sometime last week by enda kenny? Absolutely shocking, he was ranting on about what he’d do if he were Taoiseach. He said that he’d immediately shelve Metro North as many current public infastructure projects that current government are going ahead with are going to further damage the economy under the current economic climate…almost makes Fianna Fail look attractive again, Kenny’s a gob****e in my opinion. 7000 guaranteed jobs will be created in constructing the metro. Construction’s going to last what? 5 years? we’ll be out of the recession(hopefully) by then and with a much more effective public transport system in Dublin. Wasn’t a major mistake in the last recession not investing more heavily in large public transport projects?

Totally agree that Kenny is a gombeen of the highest order – until a leader of real substance emerges from somewhere – I’d actually rather stick with B to the Iffo!!

On the subject of Metro North however, the challenge now is about getting bang for our buck. It is a good time to use public money (if it can be raised) to stimulate jobs, spending and liquidity in the economy but is a single, disconnected, not particularly impressive metro line really the way to go?

How many km of tram line could be laid for the same price? A recent trip to Oporto and to Bordeaux really brought it home to me how both these cities have been transformed by being riddled with new, interlinking trams which have priority at all points over traffic.

Just a thought as well – could anyone with some technical nous about this tell me is there any reason why buses and trams can’t share the same lane? Just curious.

@reddy wrote:

On the subject of Metro North however, the challenge now is about getting bang for our buck. It is a good time to use public money (if it can be raised) to stimulate jobs, spending and liquidity in the economy but is a single, disconnected, not particularly impressive metro line really the way to go?

Keynsian economics would suggest go public projects such as undergrounds; however the Irish tax base was predicated on stamp duty and malahide tractor excise duty boom that instead of conforming with the cycle got boomier as proponents of Bush style idiology such as DICK Roche declared mass house ownership (whether afluent or sub-prime) a social duty and not an investment class.

There will not be a bounce in tax revenues on the far side of this due to the boom starting early 1990’s on a tax base base of corporate and incomes taxes disintegrating into a tax base predicated on a ridiculous weighting of big ticket sales as the population sold each other houses and bought cars with the profits!

Bond markets wish to see a penitent government being disciplined and factoring in the worst whilst having the capacity to invest in education and training to be ready to absorb FDI when the corner is turned.

I agree with your synopsis on light rail; Settle will connect SEA-Tac airport via a glorified Luas later this year to downtown. The existing scenario is 30 minutes to Grafton St via a bus with leather seats which is a lot better than the Heathrow Express to Oxford Circus or HKG to IIC via train since the airport moved to Lan Tao.

A luas journey of say 25 mins would represent real progress and probably costs c€500m or €100m a year over each of the next 5 years which would stimulate local employment and reassure bond markets that the state is capable of delivering projects of a proportionate scale. A spur to the Northern Line would cost €100m – €150m and be intergrated.

@PVC King wrote:

A spur to the Northern Line would cost €100m – €150m and be intergrated.

I am so sick of people suggesting this option…Studies by IrishRail have advised the government that the option of a spur off the northern line (near Malahide) although cheaper is completely nonviable. This line (double track) is already used by DART, Commuter, Intercity and Enterprise services. The line capacity at the moment is already at its absolute limit. Bringing a hugely busy spur line to an already constricted bottle neck (Connolly st. to south of loop line bridge) would just be impossible unless massive engineering works were undertaken to 4 track the entire line to say Bray.

It is also annoying that people are still seeing the Metro North as a line that ONLY serves Dublin airport. Its main passenger base will be commuters from north county Dublin who have for years been poorly serviced by public transport. This is the main reason that it is being built and it is a very negative connotation to view the Metro as an airport only connection line.

I do believe though that the Interconnector heavy rail DART line is a much more important infastructure, and is obviously being viewed as such by the EU as it is receiving funding under the TEN-T 2009 programme. http://www.transport21.ie/Projects/Heavy_Rail/DART_Underground.html

http://www.railusers.ie

@PVC King wrote:

Fantasy was Anglo at €17

Please set out the cahsflow analysis of your funding model or disapear to one post wonderland

Billions it would cost millions will emigrate if it is sanctioned

always try bluffing like this when addressing your betters PVC?

all a bit too hard to figure out?

@layo wrote:

The line capacity at the moment is already at its absolute limit. Bringing a hugely busy spur line to an already constricted bottle neck (Connolly st. to south of loop line bridge) would just be impossible unless massive engineering works were undertaken to 4 track the entire line to say Bray.

It is also annoying that people are still seeing the Metro North as a line that ONLY serves Dublin airport. Its main passenger base will be commuters from north county Dublin who have for years been poorly serviced by public transport. This is the main reason that it is being built and it is a very negative connotation to view the Metro as an airport only connection line.

I do believe though that the Interconnector heavy rail DART line is a much more important infastructure, and is obviously being viewed as such by the EU as it is receiving funding under the TEN-T 2009 programme. http://www.transport21.ie/Projects/Heavy_Rail/DART_Underground.html

http://www.railusers.ie

As someone who was involved with Rail Users Ireland in their embryonic days I am up to speed with the costs and user levels of the various options.

The reason the Northern Line is at capacity is that there are a number of train types using the line at different speeds i.e. trains going non-stop to Drogheda, non-stop to Howth Junction or stopping at every station en route. Trains to Dublin airport could easily be accomodated if they ran non-stop to Howth Junction and then stopped only at Dublin Airport if they ran 2 minutes behind Trains running to either Drogheda or Howth Junction that didn’t stop at each station.

Getting a connection to the City Centre from the airport is the objective not operating a train that becomes a Dart as soon as it hits trhe northern line; do people in Raheny have a god given right to a no-change route to the airport or do people in DCU have a similar right?

I also question your usage patterns on the North Commuter rail belt which excluding Swords is a series of quaint but small villages in the greater scheme of things. Look internationally there are very few international cities with a similar population to Dublin and none that I know of with similar development patterns that have ever spent this scale of expenditure on an underground rail link that wasn’t a 5kms or less project interconnecting two irrationally split rail systems.

I would love to see each kilometer of the metro be analysed on cost benefit grounds and each station’s projected passenger numbers as a proportion of the local population to see what contribution each station makes to operational revenues.

@layo wrote:

It is also annoying that people are still seeing the Metro North as a line that ONLY serves Dublin airport. Its main passenger base will be commuters from north county Dublin who have for years been poorly serviced by public transport. This is the main reason that it is being built and it is a very negative connotation to view the Metro as an airport only connection line.

I’m not suggesting at all that Metro north is solely serving Dublin airport. I just believe its an unjustifiable expense for what is going to be provided.

With free falling land acquisition prices and tender costs, surely an above ground/ cut and cover system is a much more cost effective way of delivering high class infrastucture to a greater area of the city.

@PVC King wrote:

As someone who was involved with Rail Users Ireland in their embryonic days I am up to speed with the costs and user levels of the various options.

The reason the Northern Line is at capacity is that there are a number of train types using the line at different speeds i.e. trains going non-stop to Drogheda, non-stop to Howth Junction or stopping at every station en route. Trains to Dublin airport could easily be accomodated if they ran non-stop to Howth Junction and then stopped only at Dublin Airport if they ran 2 minutes behind Trains running to either Drogheda or Howth Junction that didn’t stop at each station.

Getting a connection to the City Centre from the airport is the objective not operating a train that becomes a Dart as soon as it hits trhe northern line; do people in Raheny have a god given right to a no-change route to the airport or do people in DCU have a similar right?

I also question your usage patterns on the North Commuter rail belt which excluding Swords is a series of quaint but small villages in the greater scheme of things. Look internationally there are very few international cities with a similar population to Dublin and none that I know of with similar development patterns that have ever spent this scale of expenditure on an underground rail link that wasn’t a 5kms or less project interconnecting two irrationally split rail systems.

I would love to see each kilometer of the metro be analysed on cost benefit grounds and each station’s projected passenger numbers as a proportion of the local population to see what contribution each station makes to operational revenues.

nice point. one small problem. trains going non stop to Howth junction run at a frequency of about 1 every global depression.
there have been 2 CBAs done for MN.
MN costs are in line with similar projects in European cities.
In 10 yrs time the mortgage type payments will be peanuts relatively speaking.
rail users Oirland seem to have such a fetish for mainline trains they can skew any logic to justify their schemes. not impressive.

@reddy wrote:

I’m not suggesting at all that Metro north is solely serving Dublin airport. I just believe its an unjustifiable expense for what is going to be provided.

With free falling land acquisition prices and tender costs, surely an above ground/ cut and cover system is a much more cost effective way of delivering high class infrastucture to a greater area of the city.

There is nowhere to put an above ground system without massive, and expensive, even in the current climate, property aquisition. And cut and cover is a non runner, because there are no roads wide enough to dig under while letting traffic access locations along the road in the city, and where there is, cut and cover is being used (i.e. Ballymun road, old Swords bypass.) The deep tunnel is only a part of the Metro.

It is expensive, but worth it. And there are lots of European cities of similar size to Dublin with underground metro systems: Oslo, Lyon, Porto, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Glasgow, Valencia, Helsinki, Sofia, Lille, Thessalonika, and Brussels all have Metro systems, some far, far larger than the modest system proposed for Dublin. Dublin is one of the last large European cities outside of Britain without a Metro system. And the British systems of similar size have electrified commuter rail systems streets ahead of what exists in Dublin.

@layo wrote:

It is also annoying that people are still seeing the Metro North as a line that ONLY serves Dublin airport. Its main passenger base will be commuters from north county Dublin who have for years been poorly serviced by public transport. This is the main reason that it is being built and it is a very negative connotation to view the Metro as an airport only connection line.

Exactly. Its hard to believe how short sighted people can be – Phase 3 of the Pavilions in Swords is entirely dependent on this Metro being built. That’s 4000 jobs right there, along with 7000 jobs being created while the Metro is being built. How can anybody justify it not be built is beyond me. The transport from Swords is absolutely CRAP, with buses taking up to 1.5 hours to get into the City Centre. I know my wife can’t get on a bus in Drumcondra heading to Swords around 4pm as they’re completely full. I shudder to think what we wouldn’t get if the airport wasn’t close by. Bet Michael O’Leary doesn’t hang around Swords for a 41 on a regular basis.

I am enough of a Keynsian to believe that, at this point, if we could raise the money from the bond markets to pay people to dig holes for nothing it would be a good idea, how much better if they dig a metro. Only the MN plan can proceed in the near term and so, assuming the consortia have the PPP financing in place, this is the plan that should go ahead.

@notjim wrote:

I am enough of a Keynsian to believe that, at this point, if we could raise the money from the Bond markets to pay people to dig holes for nothing it would be a good idea, how much better if they dig a metro. Only the MN plan can proceed in the near term and so, assuming the consortia have the PPP financing in place, this is the plan that should go ahead.

This is exactly how Argentina destroyed a decent fiscal position on the back of the dotcom fallout in 2001. They entered a number of PPP financing deals in the late 1990s which destroyed bond market sentiment as the risks created directly by the scale of the paybacks required were factored into the fiscal position.

If a Japanese design build and operate model were available with very limited exchequer payback it should be done but if the Argentinian model is all that is on offer all I can say is you didn’t want to be Buenos Aires in January 2002 it was ugly.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0305/ryanair.html

Ryanair has presented what it calls a ‘rescue plan for Irish tourism’ to the Government-appointed Tourism Renewal Group in a briefing at Dublin Castle.

The airline called for six specific measures to be implemented. It claimed these would enable traffic and tourism numbers in Ireland to grow by 20% over the next two years.

Ryanair wants the €10 travel tax scrapped. It has also called for an end to subsidies for regional air routes and the closure of the Aviation Regulator’s office. Ryanair also wants the Metro North project scrapped.

AdvertisementThe airline also called for the Dublin Airport Authority to reduce charges by 30%, and allow Cork and Shannon to ‘incentivise low-cost traffic growth instead of useless new route schemes’.

Ryanair said that if the travel tax were scrapped, it would reverse its recently announced cuts at Dublin and Shannon airports.

Less is more; will he take on SR Technics?

@PVC King wrote:

This is exactly how Argentina destroyed a decent fiscal position on the back of the dotcom fallout in 2001. They entered a number of PPP financing deals in the late 1990s which destroyed bond market sentiment as the risks created directly by the scale of the paybacks required were factored into the fiscal position.

If a Japanese design build and operate model were available with very limited exchequer payback it should be done but if the Argentinian model is all that is on offer all I can say is you didn’t want to be Buenos Aires in January 2002 it was ugly.

Less is more; will he take on SR Technics?

I don’t know the exact details off the PPP, but it sounds attractive, and fairly suited to the current economic environment.

The PPP is a build and operate contract, where the bidders will build the Metro, and run it to a specified service level for 30 years. The payments will take the form of a yearly availability payment, where there will be penalties for siginificant downtime, and the first payment is not due until after the metro carries it’s first passengers.
The tenders are estimeted around 4.5billion, from what I’ve heard. This would be a cost of approx 150 million a year, for 30 years, including all operating and maintenance costs.

While it won’t help the budgetary situation, realistically, it won’t require any cash until 2015 at the latest, and a fairly moderate amount per year after that. Assuming a daily ridership of about 60,000 (a good bit less than the Luas, btw), paying roughly 3 euro a day would contribute roughly 50 million a year, and as fares rise over the years, the debt will be paid off progressively more and more by the farebox.

Fergal: PPP is a licence to private-sector wideboys to print money; once the public sector shakes hands on the deal it will be left counting its fingers. Don’t believe a figure of the calculations.

@johnglas wrote:

Fergal: PPP is a licence to private-sector wideboys to print money; once the public sector shakes hands on the deal it will be left counting its fingers. Don’t believe a figure of the calculations.

Spot on there is no way anyone would invest €4.5bn for a return of €150m a year or 3.33% they would want 8% or €360m a year which would be at a minimum linked to RPI or close to €400m by the time it became payable. The lesson on this really should have been learnt with the West Link where a private operator contributed £32m for a 3 mile motorway and the state then built the other 15 miles of motorway to build up their revenues.

Unlike Westlink this is very much a stand alone piece of infrastructure which beyond serving a narrow commuter catchment does nothing other than link the airport with the retail / tourist district. It misses the core office district and does nothing to enhance existing rail lines.

When a Japanese consortium made an approach in the 1990’s they were prepared if given government consent to design, aquire land, build, operate and maintain a metro system. All the government of the time had to do was sign it off and the metro with a fare tarrif of c €5 per ticket per journey would have been delivered with no cost to tax payers.

I have no doubt that such a system would have been radically different to that proposed by the RPA in that it would have been the same length but gone virtually in a straight line from the airport to the CC with no stops and then extended to the office districts. We will I guess never know what route it would have taken and how it would have shaped development patterns given the economic growth that was possible in that period.

Unlike the Luas approach of a million stops which limited people use there would have been a real opportunity to build stations carrying 100,000 – 250,000 passengers per day.

No stops other than O’C St, St Green and the Airport will ever carry six figures per day; any underground station that doesn’t carry at least 100,000 per day should be built given the costs; this is where overground has a dramatic advantage.

@PVC King wrote:

Spot on there is no way anyone would invest €4.5bn for a return of €150m a year or 3.33% they would want 8% or €360m a year which would be at a minimum linked to RPI or close to €400m by the time it became payable. The lesson on this really should have been learnt with the West Link where a private operator contributed £32m for a 3 mile motorway and the state then built the other 15 miles of motorway to build up their revenues.

Unlike Westlink this is very much a stand alone piece of infrastructure which beyond serving a narrow commuter catchment does nothing other than link the airport with the retail / tourist district. It misses the core office district and does nothing to enhance existing rail lines.

When a Japanese consortium made an approach in the 1990’s they were prepared if given government consent to design, aquire land, build, operate and maintain a metro system. All the government of the time had to do was sign it off and the metro with a fare tarrif of c €5 per ticket per journey would have been delivered with no cost to tax payers.

I have no doubt that such a system would have been radically different to that proposed by the RPA in that it would have been the same length but gone virtually in a straight line from the airport to the CC with no stops and then extended to the office districts. We will I guess never know what route it would have taken and how it would have shaped development patterns given the economic growth that was possible in that period.

Unlike the Luas approach of a million stops which limited people use there would have been a real opportunity to build stations carrying 100,000 – 250,000 passengers per day.

No stops other than O’C St, St Green and the Airport will ever carry six figures per day; any underground station that doesn’t carry at least 100,000 per day should be built given the costs; this is where overground has a dramatic advantage.

more faffing and waffling.

calculations undone by schoolboy howler of 4.5 billion gaffe.
the 4.5 is the total cost over 25 yrs. the capital cost approx 2.5 billion.

have a lie down in a dark room, suggest

@marmajam wrote:

more faffing and waffling.

calculations undone by schoolboy howler of 4.5 billion gaffe.
the 4.5 is the total cost over 25 yrs. the capital cost approx 2.5 billion.

have a lie down in a dark room, suggest

Oh our jam jar does numbers!

€200m per year for 25 years with no capital repaid for a system that delivers merely three stations that stack up in a mature transit market. What would the operational losses be on top?

€200m per year in isolation exceeds the entire subvention to the entire CIE group which serves the entire state and provides services to NI any beyond.

A single years subvention to these three viable stations would link the Airport to the City Centre

3 years subvention would extend Light Rail to the Airport; this would be akin to taking 22 years and all capital off a 25 year interest only mortgage.

@PVC King wrote:

Oh our jam jar does numbers!

€200m per year for 25 years with no capital repaid for a system that delivers merely three stations that stack up in a mature transit market. What would the operational losses be on top?

€200m per year in isolation exceeds the entire subvention to the entire CIE group which serves the entire state and provides services to NI any beyond.

A single years subvention to these three viable stations would link the Airport to the City Centre

3 years subvention would extend Light Rail to the Airport; this would be akin to taking 22 years and all capital off a 25 year interest only mortgage.

more dishonest tosh.
the financing plan will work out at approx 200 – 300m a year for 5 yrs and 100m a year for 20 yrs. that’s the end of payments. light rail to the airport is nonsense. there’s no place to put it and it’s capacity virtually useless.

all your rants are riddled with exaggerations.

one gets the feeling that you find the idea of MN too frightening and so shoehorn and invent figures to sustain your odd take on the reality of this project.

in 30 yrs 100m will be maybe half the value of today. fares will be double. MN will operate for 150yrs at a conservative estimate. sends out the message that we believe in ourselves and our future.
what you neglect with your selective and dishonest numbers is the fact that MN will be the prime public transport corridor in Oirland, connecting several key strategic nodes in urban Dublin and a magnet for investment.
In 10 yrs time the Irish economy will be flying again. we should believe in ourselves. not hide under the bed with a mish mash of mad numbers on the edge of total irrationality. ha ha.

@marmajam wrote:

more dishonest tosh.
the financing plan will work out at approx 200 – 300m a year for 5 yrs and 100m a year for 20 yrs.

all your rants are riddled with exaggerations.

one gets the feeling that you find the idea of MN too frightening and so shoehorn and invent figures to sustain your odd take on the reality of this project.

in 30 yrs 100m will be maybe half the value of today. fares will be double. MN will operate for 150yrs at a conservative estimate. sends out the message that we believe in ourselves and our future.
what you neglect with your selective and dishonest numbers is the fact that MN will be the prime public transport corridor in Oirland, connecting several key strategic nodes in urban Dublin and a magnet for investment.
In 10 yrs time the Irish economy will be flying again. we should belive in ourselves. not hide under the bed with a mish mash of mad numbers on the edge of total irrationality.

You obviously work in (or were canned from) is / was something that sectorially has no exposure to capital markets whatsoever, you know the place where the money comes from.

All PPP’s are predicated on a debt pile and return required to make someone borrow the money in the first place. The capital even if repaid at €100m a year for the first five years does not magically dissapear the private partner still needs to service that debt and get a return for the risks taken. €2bn of outstanding finance would at 8% give a service cost of €160m with none of the capital being reduced for another 25 years.

There is a huge pipeline of excellent competing investments out there yielding 7-8% that have no project delivery risks and secure covenants with 15 years plus of secure and quantified income left to run that is reserved on an upwards only basis.

Who in their right mind would bear all the risks to deliver this at less than 12% in the current market unless guaranteed by the government. Any such guarantee in the current market would be factored in by ratings agencies as more or less 100% owed by the government.

Face it this was Bertie’s vanity project that never stacked up; save the key strategic corridor stuff; it links a 3 bed semi sprawl with an airport and a retail district hitting a few low density greying suburbs en route but hits nothing of any real scale.

After the last 5 years of convincing ourselves we were masters of the universe the only relief from the severly deflated but not yet burst bubble will be an ability to apply scarce resources to patch the puncture before the economy falls off the cliff. If the nightmare happens it will not due to anything other than to the current paralysis which demonstrates a tragic inability to fillet the fat from the current and capital budgets.

@PVC King wrote:

You obviously work in (or were canned from) is / was something that sectorially has no exposure to capital markets whatsoever, you know the place where the money comes from.

All PPP’s are predicated on a debt pile and return required to make someone borrow the money in the first place. The capital even if repaid at €100m a year for the first five years does not magically dissapear the private partner still needs to service that debt and get a return for the risks taken. €2bn of outstanding finance would at 8% give a service cost of €160m with none of the capital being reduced for another 25 years.

There is a huge pipeline of excellent competing investments out there yielding 7-8% that have no project delivery risks and secure covenants with 15 years plus of secure and quantified income left to run that is reserved on an upwards only basis.

Who in their right mind would bear all the risks to deliver this at less than 12% in the current market unless guaranteed by the government. Any such guarantee in the current market would be factored in by ratings agencies as more or less 100% owed by the government.

Face it this was Bertie’s vanity project that never stacked up; save the key strategic corridor stuff; it links a 3 bed semi sprawl with an airport and a retail district hitting a few low density greying suburbs en route but hits nothing of any real scale.

After the last 5 years of convincing ourselves we were masters of the universe the only relief from the severly deflated but not yet burst bubble will be an ability to apply scarce resources to patch the puncture before the economy falls off the cliff. If the nightmare happens it will not due to anything other than to the current paralysis which demonstrates a tragic inability to fillet the fat from the current and capital budgets.

the first 5 years will be paid at approx 250m a year.
you are quite confused.

@marmajam wrote:

the first 5 years will be paid at approx 250m a year.
you are quite confused.

PPP returns are based on a return on total capital employed. The project price according to you is €2.5bn therefore an annual return of €200m p.a. would be the very minimum that any of the 3 possible players involved would have considered back in the good old days when a system called credit existed.

Have you a shortlist of the PPP players who would actually do it on your terms

Mickey Mouse?
Donald Duck?
Roger Rabbitt?

Of the economic opinion pieces in todays sindo the metro was listed in every economic analysis as the first project to go.

gentlemen!!! jasus relax.

@PVC King wrote:

PPP returns are based on a return on total capital employed. The project price according to you is €2.5bn therefore an annual return of €200m p.a. would be the very minimum that any of the 3 possible players involved would have considered back in the good old days when a system called credit existed.

Have you a shortlist of the PPP players who would actually do it on your terms

Mickey Mouse?
Donald Duck?
Roger Rabbitt?

Of the economic opinion pieces in todays sindo the metro was listed in every economic analysis as the first project to go.

you’re crazy.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0310/1224242572119.html
Following an emergency meeting of industry-wide groups yesterday, Mr Parlon said the construction industry was already in freefall. He said the industry would be bringing forward a plan to fund development projects “off-balance sheet” through utilising the 80 per cent of pension funds currently being invested outside the State.

And he said Ireland would ruin its credibility internationally if the Dublin Metro project did not go ahead.

Mr Parlon also said he would very strongly support the Dublin Metro North project, which was a public-private partnership.

“Very little Government money will go into the metro and we have some of the best engineering and financial consortia in the world involved,” he said.

“At a time when we sorely need every euro to be retained in the economy, it makes a huge lot of sense that the pension fund would be invested in infrastructure,” he said.

The proposal was not yet fully refined, but they had engaged with private pension funds and the scheme would likely see a 6-7 per cent guaranteed return on investment. The guarantee would be underwritten by the private sector and would be “off balance sheet” for the Government, and so would not add to the country’s debt.

“In terms of our national or international credibility, if anything is pulled on the metro at the moment, we can throw our hat at trying to attract those kinds of players to invest here in the future.”

I have a very limited financial mind but the Irish pensioners invest internationally and then they spend some of the money in Ireland which guarantees them a return of 6-7 percent? Does that guarantee an 6-7% fare increase every year? is that about right? No Irish bank was offering a guaranteed 6-7% in the boom or guaranteed pension funds what’s changed? I know some people who have lost half there life savings

OK, let’s have a look at the figures that PVC finds so sacred.

MN will have a capacity of 20,000 passengers per hour per direction. It will operate for 19hrs a day. That amounts to max capacity of 760,000 per week or approx 370 million passengers per year.

Let’s say it carries 200 million a year ( going by LUAS it will be more). In 10 yrs time that will be a fares income of more than 500 million a year.

In fact MN will be a huge earner.

Further, given Ireland’s economic, political, and geographical location location, even at this time it will not be difficult to raise the cash.

Very difficult to take PVC seriouslly when you look at the alternatives he proposes.
Take the idea of a spur from the northern line.
Puttng an airport train down the line after each nth commuter train will push the DART frequency to one every 30 mins in the rush hour. Maybe I’m paranoid but I suspect the rush hour DART commuters might spot that…..
And this for a train that will only have one stop en route to the airport.
Build a LUAS to the airport?
Nonsense.
The route is one of the city’s busiest, with several severe pinch points.
Yet the proposal is to take 2 lanes from other traffic. All for the modest Luas carrying capacity……..

@missarchi wrote:

I have a very limited financial mind but the Irish pensioners invest internationally and then they spend some of the money in Ireland which guarantees them a return of 6-7 percent? Does that guarantee an 6-7% fare increase every year? is that about right? No Irish bank was offering a guaranteed 6-7% in the boom or guaranteed pension funds what’s changed? I know some people who have lost half there life savings[/I]

Well at least you are honest. 🙂 I have no idea what you are trying to say.

Parlon is as blinkered as the public servants who are bitching about a contribution towards their pensions. He is a PR guy and knows as much about construction/viability economics as I do about pig farming. In fact, I think I probably know more about pig farming! Similar mathematical calculations (i.e. old guff) were used to justify the Channel Tunnell and EuroDisney, both of which went down the crapper.

As for Irish pension funds investing here, have we entirely lost the plot on financial risk assessment? In 2008 the Irish share prices Index (ISEQ) fell by 66%. Internationally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 34% and Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index finished down 38% – – its worst year since 1937. Year to date in Ireland the figures are considerably worse.

Irish pension funds invest overseas so as to spread their risk. Invest your pension in Ireland and you will see it lose value at a much faster rate. Frankly, there is little left to invest in in Ireland. Of course, any public servant does not have to worry about this,
When the IMF arrives Metro North will be one of the first things to be binned, along with guaranteed index-linked pensions and guaranteed Public Service jobs for life. Looking at the tripe emanating from the Government and worse still from the Opposition, the date the IMF will arrive is not far off. Sadly, I’m beginning to look forward to it, because I’m sick and tired of the head in the sand status of the fools involved in running this country.

Metro North is a distraction, a red herring and a waste of discussion time, unless of course you are an architect with no work and plenty of time.
Rs
K.

@KerryBog2 wrote:

Well at least you are honest. 🙂 I have no idea what you are trying to say.

Parlon is as blinkered as the public servants who are bitching about a contribution towards their pensions. He is a PR guy and knows as much about construction/viability economics as I do about pig farming. In fact, I think I probably know more about pig farming! Similar mathematical calculations (i.e. old guff) were used to justify the Channel Tunnell and EuroDisney, both of which went down the crapper.

As for Irish pension funds investing here, have we entirely lost the plot on financial risk assessment? In 2008 the Irish share prices Index (ISEQ) fell by 66%. Internationally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 34% and Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index finished down 38% – – its worst year since 1937. Year to date in Ireland the figures are considerably worse.

Irish pension funds invest overseas so as to spread their risk. Invest your pension in Ireland and you will see it lose value at a much faster rate. Frankly, there is little left to invest in in Ireland. Of course, any public servant does not have to worry about this,
When the IMF arrives Metro North will be one of the first things to be binned, along with guaranteed index-linked pensions and guaranteed Public Service jobs for life. Looking at the tripe emanating from the Government and worse still from the Opposition, the date the IMF will arrive is not far off. Sadly, I’m beginning to look forward to it, because I’m sick and tired of the head in the sand status of the fools involved in running this country.

Metro North is a distraction, a red herring and a waste of discussion time, unless of course you are an architect with no work and plenty of time.
Rs
K.

t h e r e w i l l b e n o IMF in O i r l a n d.

be better off shticking to the GAA and mangling the disciplinary appeals process. simpler to understand ha ha.

@marmajam wrote:

be better off shticking to the GAA and mangling the disciplinary appeals process. simpler to understand ha ha.

Not sure that the IMF could do much to help the GAA in Kerry.
K.

@marmajam wrote:

t h e r e w i l l b e n o IMF in O i r l a n d.

be better off shticking to the GAA and mangling the disciplinary appeals process. simpler to understand ha ha.

Noel O’Gara at least had a sense of humour; you do not, nor any valid points.

Missarchi you really have outdone yourself quoting Tom Parlon; lets think back over TP’s career. IFA Chief Incitement Officer for the regular farmers mobs who released flocks of sheep into the Dept of Agriculture. The 32 story residential tower in Kilmainham which the market rejected in his stint as a member of the PDs that party born in the 1980’s out of the sheer frustration that Haughey was promising to buy the electorate in the 1986/7 period before Ray McSharry sorted Haughey’s plans into something credible. With this perfect background in controlling his members, designing viable development schemes and joining a party of fiscal recitude what does Tom Parlon suggest?

The proposal was not yet fully refined, but they had engaged with private pension funds and the scheme would likely see a 6-7 per cent guaranteed return on investment. The guarantee would be underwritten by the private sector and would be “off balance sheet” for the Government, and so would not add to the country’s debt

The proposal is not yet developed because investment funds that have some funds left after the rush to the exits can buy investments yielding 8.5% plus; an example might be a 100,000 sq foot Tesco supermarket with 18 years left and no breaks with rent reviews every 5 years yielding 8.5%.

Who is going to take the development risk on this for 6-7% when estimates for Londons Cross rail which is 6-7 miles underground are coming back at £15bn sterling. It simply doesn’t stack up as a private sector investment.

Tom’s real piece de resistance yesterday however was on RTE; I think the CIF really need to look at Tom’s continued role if they are to recover any shard of credibility.

The supplementary Budget to be introduced by the Government has the potential to make things worse rather than better, according to the Construction Industry Federation.

CIF Director General Tom Parlon said the focus appeared to be on taxes and cuts and, in his view, this was ‘entirely the wrong thing to do’. http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0309/construction.html

John Drennan’s piece quite chillingly spells out the road ahead; I wish it were different but looking at PMIs on both manufacturing and services in the early 30s now is not the time for white elephant projects.

Cowen must come clean on the ‘ground zero’ of economic collapse
Sunday March 08 2009

Ireland first heard about the concept of “ground zero” after the planes crashed into New York’s Twin Towers on 9/11. In the chaos that followed, we learned that ground zero was the furnace of the battle.

It is that final equivocal point before the skies clear, the shootings die down and we learn the identity of the winners and losers of the war.

After last week, amid all the smoke and chaos of the Irish economic collapse — quite aside from the fact that, rather like Britain under Labour in the Seventies, Ireland under Cowen is not working — one other thing was clear: it is well gone past the time that the Government came clean and told us what precisely the ground zero of the Irish economic collapse will be.

The people already suspect that the truth of the matter is that Ireland has no money.

It would (just about) be excessive to say we are bankrupt, but Ireland Inc is — as of now — technically insolvent to the point where only our membership of Europe is sparing us from a fate similar to that of Iceland.

If, however, the Irish people are ever going to face the consequences of this in practice rather than in theory, it is now time to make it official.

In other words, the Government must tell us when we are going to reach “ground zero”, and what it will mean, even if we will not reach that point for some time yet.

The Government also needs to tell us what we are going to have to do to ensure that reaching ground zero will not bankrupt the nation, because it is now abundantly clear that our economy needs extensive surgery.

A nation which is poised to borrow €25bn to keep the show on the road, and secure revenue of little more than €30bn, is probably less than six months away from default.

If that occurs, the only thing that will save us is the sight of Angela Merkel landing with a large bag of German taxpayers’ money. While some feral Dail conspiracy theorists believe that Fianna Fail’s (FF) secret plan is to go bankrupt and let the Germans take the rap for the consequences, we suspect that not even Brian Cowen wants to be remembered as the Redmondite who turned Ireland into a Home Rule-style colony of Germany.
If this is to be avoided, the Exchequer is faced with stark choices.

So far Cowen has tried to fool himself, and us, by claiming that a war on PR consultancies would balance the nation’s books. That option is no longer viable.

So also is the aspiration that €4.5bn might do the job, because if the Department of Finance believed in February that we faced a €4.5bn shortfall, the real figure is more likely to be €6bn.

That, of course, fails to take into account the reality that we have to sort out the rest of the €20bn deficit, but options such as carbon taxes, domestic rates, third-level fees, the ending of mortgage interest relief, rental relief, tax credits and water charges can be put off until our next scheduled budget in December.

For now though, the Cabinet needs to gulp hard and admit to itself and us that the economic “ground zero” we face means all the gains of the past 12 years are now the fiscal equivalent of an auction of repossessed cars.

Ireland is going to have to return to a lower tax rate of 25 per cent and a top rate of 44 per cent. It is a measure of the fiscal mess we are in that merely restoring the status quo of 1997 represents a huge gamble, because the €400bn of private debt means many ordinary citizens simply do not have the liquidity to pay these taxes.
This is only the start of it, however, for our current weakened state means that even this revolution in taxation will raise a maximum of €2bn.

If we are to become fiscally solvent, the cherished child benefit of the ladies who lunch will have to be taxed.

That and the abolition of the early childhood supplement will bring in another €800m and see FF go down as the party who finally taxed children’s shoes.

In the light of our latest figures, Cowen’s proud status as the boss of “the highest capital programme” in Europe is as dead as the FF election manifesto.

So far approximately €6bn of the €8bn we propose to spend this year has been allocated. The rest is dead meat — and, yes, that includes vanity projects like Metro North and the Western rail corridor.

The Government is going to have to take €1.5bn out of the social welfare and the public sector pay €20bn spending pots.

At least the public sector has given the Government its chance, for we cannot think of any better example of the truth of the old saying about how those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad, than the decision of the Irish Association of Higher Civil Servants to support a one-day strike in defence of the pay and conditions of the fine mandarins who turned this country into Albania.

The only appropriate response to this threat is a decision by the Government to rescind every pay increase sanctioned by the flawed benchmarking system.

It would of course be excessive to reverse the 20 of them in one go, but a Bertie-style “a lot done, more to do” cut in public sector pay of five per cent for all salaries above the €60,000 mark would represent a good start.

That would raise €500m immediately, but if we are to remain solvent the Government will have to follow the fine precedent set by Ernest Blythe and raise €1bn by cutting social welfare rates by five per cent .

Sadly, the Taoiseach’s tasks do not end there. If we were still living in the soap opera era of Bertie, all eyes would be focused on the leadership implications of Brian Lenihan’s decision to singe his leader’s beard with his admission last week that we need a national government in all but name. This means poor Cowen will now have to suffer the cruellest cut of all.

Saying sorry, particularly for aristocrats, may be the hardest thing, but if the Taoiseach “gets real” and apologises for the sins of the past and extends his drowning hand to the Opposition, he would at least be on the high moral ground.

Everyone in the country except FF, Labour and Fine Gael (FG) realises that we need a new politics of mature generosity. Of course, the Opposition is understandably worried about the consequences of its own ambitions of saving Private Cowen.

In fact, FG and Labour need not worry, for no matter what happens the public will use the first chance they get to run the current lot out of power for a generation.

Their main concern should be the consequences Gilmore and Kenny will have to deal with should their political selfishness create a situation where, if they finally get into office, there will be no country left for them to run.

With 30% of dublin architects and surveyors on the dole or McDonalds (sorry – anyway their fit outs are getting better) what needs to happen is that credit flows in the system again; the perception of the banks is linked to the perception of the government. What McSharry & Co did with the support of Dukes in 1987/88 created a boom that lasted from 1988 – 2007 minus 1991-93; building uncosted vanity projects to stimulate demand giving the central euroean governments the excuse they have been waiting a decade for to kill the corporate tax advantage would be quite Parlonesque.

There are so many inaccuracies above I don’t know where to begin. Firstly, the comparison to Crossrail is ludicrous. Crossrail involves 20 km of tunnels twice the diameter proposed for Metro North, along with the total rebuilding of almost every station on the route, along with large scale electrification works. It is an entirely different scale to what is planned in Dublin.

Metro North is a much more modest project – it will use the same type of rolling stock as the Luas, narrower than the DART to allow smaller, cheaper tunnelling. The bored tunnels will run from the city to Griffith avenue, and under the airport, about 7km. The rest of the line will either be cut and cover, or on the surface with over and underbridges. The tender price of 4.5billion is an all inclusive price, including the interest payments.

Metro North will link:
Dublin’s most important office district (Around Stephen’s Green and Leeson Street)
Dublins 2 main shopping areas
The densest residential area in the state (around Parnell street)
The national childrens hospital, and the Mater.
The countries biggest sports stadium (Croke Park)
DCU – 15,000 students a day – the vast majority who commute on public transport
Ballymun, a historically deprived area, very dense, and very high public transport use.
The airport – with 23 million passengers a year, is one of the busier in Europe
Swords – the largest town in the state with no rail link, and poor public transport access to the city.
And finishing with a park and ride on the second biggest motorway in the state – which carries 90,000 people a day at that point.

And we know who is prepared to take the risk to build it – the tenders from the qualified bidding groups – who all include finance providers, are in: http://www.rpa.ie/en/news/Pages/MetroNorthTenderBidsRecieved.aspx

All that remains to be seen is can we afford it and should we build it.
As to whether we should build it or not – I am clearly in favour. 4.5billion is a small sum for an investment that will last 100 years or more, judging by other metro lines around the world. We will never get a chance to build it so cheaply as we can now.

As to can we afford it – it’s a trickier question. The government is going dambusters through the growth and stability pact, and we certainly can’t afford to borrow any more this year, or likely several years after that. But money isn’t due until it’s built, and that will be at least 5 years from now. If we haven’t recovered by then, the price of the metro will be total peanuts compared to what the country will be spending on the banks, and will actually result in a tangible benefit.

And lets not forget that every developed nation is taking on enormous amounts of debt right now – this inevitably points to a decade of high inflation to come, where the value of the metro to Dublin will stay the same, but the difficulty of paying it back will be reducing every year.

@Fergal wrote:

And we know who is prepared to take the risk to build it – the tenders from the qualified bidding groups – who all include finance providers, are in: http://www.rpa.ie/en/news/Pages/MetroNorthTenderBidsRecieved.aspx

In each one of those syndicates there are companies/financiers that currently are having difficulty keeping their heads above water. Have you been reading the papers?
K.

Actually, none of HSBC, BAM, Macquarie Bank, or Barclays have so far received a penny of a government bailout, although Barclays were sailing pretty close to the wind, and most would be noted for their prudent financial management. They all are in a position to lend, and have lots of experience in this kind of project.

@marmajam wrote:

OK, let’s have a look at the figures that PVC finds so sacred.

MN will have a capacity of 20,000 passengers per hour per direction. It will operate for 19hrs a day. That amounts to max capacity of 760,000 per week or approx 370 million passengers per year.

Let’s say it carries 200 million a year ( going by LUAS it will be more). In 10 yrs time that will be a fares income of more than 500 million a year.

Ok I was waiting for you to say something interesting or intelligent given the knowing and belligerent tone of your posts but the above proves that you are just a clown. 200 million a year? You are predicting that almost every man, woman and child in Dublin will take a “trip” on metro north once every single working day of the year?

“Going by Luas it will be more”? The two Luas lines together – which have been a phenomenal success – carry about 30 million a year and you basing your predictions on a SINGLE line carrying 7 times the number of passengers as the two Luas lines together?

Even the RPA are only projecting 35 million passenger trips a year last I read. Also last I read the capital costs were projected to be around the 3.7 billion not 2.5 billion which I believe was the figure the RPA bandied about for an O’Connell St. to Airport metro (not Stephen’s Green to Swords) with no connection with any other rail line except the red Luas, no station/connection at Drumcondra or other “trimmings” (like disabled access!).

To be honest, I would have just about supported this project until last year even though by my calculations the government subvention was going to cost in the range of 4 and 11 euro per passenger journey for the 35 years. Even assuming the winning consortium can secure finance at 8% and the passenger numbers are 50% higher than what the RPA are suggesting, the subvention per passenger journey works out at about 6 euro. This is massive when you look at Luas never mind IR or Dublin Bus (it will cost the government as much in subvention to carry a single metro north passenger as it currently costs to carry 20 passengers on Dublin Bus). However, my support was based on the idea that at the time we had a 20 year record of completely underestimating our infrastructure needs and that the government coffers were awash with money and if they were going to waste billions that I’d prefer they do it doing something which provides a tangible benefit instead of countless projects and expenditure which deliver nothing at all.

I no longer support metro north. The population of the country is falling for the first time in 2 decades; of the remainder we are looking at 80s levels of unemployment by the end of the year. We need to look for cheap and clever solutions and to be honest I don’t actually feel that ferrying people too and from the airport should be the top priority; I fly in and out of it regularly and while I’d much prefer to take a 25 minute metro to Stephen’s Green, in the context of air travel the extra 20 minutes spent on a bus is relatively insignificant.

Believe it or not metro is not the only solution for urban mass transport; I’ve been spending time in Zürich (which has the best public transport system I’ve experienced) and they had a referendum on building a metro system about 20 years ago and voted against it because the metro proposals simply did not deliver in terms of cost. Instead they greatly increased the tram system and built interconnectors to leverage the existing heavy rail lines. Of course the Swiss have the operational side down to a tee while we sit at the opposite end of the spectrum.

In the current climate, Metro North represents hubristic trophyism. There isn’t a chance it will be built. I still support the interconnector but support very little that the RPA is proposing. The red line extension makes sense. But the Lucan Luas and Metro West are simply daft; the convoluted proposed BX is similarly stupid (60% more expensive than a straightforward direct link according to RPA estimates while being slower and more disruptive).

But the Irish Independent has learned that the capital projects which are safe include all the major inter-urban motorway projects such as the Limerick-Nenagh upgrade, the Galway to Ballinasloe motorway and the Dublin to Waterford motorway. Two public-private partnerships, the Limerick to Cork motorway and the Galway to Tuam motorway, have also been approved in recent months.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/metro-north-runs-late-as-transport-plans-delayed-1663304.html

THE credit crunch and financial meltdown is playing havoc with the Government’s plans to deliver billions of euro of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects.

As banks withdraw from lending, construction projects ranging from the €700m Thornton Hall prison to the Abbey Theatre face immense difficulty in securing private funding. Not one single PPP project was funded last year, following a glut of schemes in 2007.

The implosion of Depfa bank, which was one of the major funders of the Irish PPP sector, forced a number of schemes to seek new financing. Last week, Transport Minister Noel Dempsey announced ambitious plans for new roads worth almost €1.4bn. Three of these will come under the PPP scheme.

Dempsey is adamant that the Metro North project will continue. It is understood that sovereign wealth funds have expressed an interest in financing Irish infrastructure. Several of the funds — primarily from the Gulf states such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, have met with officials from the department of finance.

Dempsey is believed to be keen on taking a future Irish PPP project — such as Metro West — on an investor roadshow to the Gulf states to gauge interest.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dempsey-may-look-to-gulf-to-pay-the-fares-for-metro-1622930.html

I am appalled by the pro-cyclical economics on display: the down turn is a reason to build, not to stop. MN is, or almost is, a shovel ready project, if it can be financed it should go ahead.

Do you think the famine piers made strict economic sense, or the WPA projects?

Our entire stimulus package, so called, boiled down to 100m for home insulation; crazy. Local governments are canceling sensible urban renewal projects for the sake of funding, somehow the book keeping is easier if you pay people dole instead?

Obviously if the MN involves too much direct government borrowing it can’t go ahead, we are having trouble selling bonds, but if it is predominately financed through the PPP mechanism, it should absolutely go ahead, not for public transport reasons, though I think they justify the project, but for economic reasons.

It’s a bit too late to be appalled by pro-cyclical fiscal policies, notjim. Any chance the country had of allieviating the cyclical downturn fiscally was blown by the government spending policies since 2001. Because government spending expanded at such a rate during this 6 or so years, it will be impossible to even maintain current levels of expenditure never mind continue the exponential trajectory of spending. There are two sides to a Keynesian approach – government contraction during booms and expansion during busts. I find it almost amusing the number of “half” Keynesians that have suddenly appeared in the country; i.e. they never complained about the government spending like crazy during a boom but are now demanding – referencing Keynes – that the government spend like crazy during a bust.

I also think that many people have a very twisted understanding of what Keynes argued for. He would NEVER have advocated borrowing money to pay people to dig holes and fill them in again or to build useless piers in inaccessible places. He argued for an expansion of government spending during a business cycle trough in order to even out the lack of demand in general in the economy. The government spending is still expected to be efficient in terms of stimulating the economy. Paying people to build roads through bogs which will never or rarely be used (or the modern equivalent – building motorways in sparsely populated areas) would obviously be a popular plan with the likes of Tom Parlon and who he represents but it would hardly benefit anyone outside of the people immediately employed.

This isn’t theoretical – look at Japan since the 1990s for what happens if you blindly embrace the idea of government stimulus spending for the sake of it. In 10 years they borrowed the equivalent of their entire GDP and spent it on “infrastructure” like the famous bridge which is rarely used. None of this spending did anything to stimulate the economy and it remained in a slump despite this huge amount of spending except now they have a tower of government debt to deal with as well as a falling economy.

Anyway, no matter where you sit along this economic ideological spectrum, the government will effectively have X amount to spend on a stimulus package attempting to counter the bust. It is even more vital than during a boom that this X is spent carefully on projects that delivery as much as possible. It is still important to evaluate the projects in terms of costs and benefits. There is no point in spending the money paying people to dig and fill holes in bogs. Metro North does not measure up for me when you look at the figures; we are looking at a subvention of 6 times that given to Dublin bus for a system which will carry a 5th of the passengers.

Also, I dunno why people feel that there is something financially magical about PPP whereby “free” money is being created. It is government borrowing just as clearly as selling bonds is. There is simply no difference (except in terms of accounting) in terms of government finance between paying a PPP consortium 200 million a year for 20 years and paying a 200 million on bond coupons. Sorry there is one difference; for these sorts of figures the government could raise 2.5 billion by issuing bonds while only 1.6 billion would be raised by PPP.

It is not true that Metro North will require a subsidy 5 times that of Dublin Bus. Metro North will probably require a fairly small operating subsidy. It is the capital cost that is expensive – the key difference is that this is only paid once. When the last payment is in for Metro North, say, in 2040, that is the infrastructure paid for forever, unlike Dublin Bus, which wil require the subsidy for as long as it operates. The subsidy for Dublin Bus will only increase over time, as it rises with inflation, while the capital cost of Metro North is a fixed amount, which will decline year over year. In 30 years, 4.5 billion is likely to be equivalent to about 800 million today.

And another issue is that the subsidy to Dublin bus is tiny – it is half the amount spent yearly on the rural school bus scheme for example, and is the main reason Dublin bus can’t run a proper 24 hour service, have reasonable fares, or serve people travelling to destinations that do not start or end in the city centre.

What Keynes actually said.

“If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably become a good deal greater than it actually is. It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing.”

If it were as simple as following Keynes none of us would work but simple follow an investment strategy with our initial pocket money acting perfectly in five year cycles until we ended up like JP McManus rich!

I do however find his observation of the treasury printing banknotes to bury interesting as that is the one bullet not available to the government; the current issue as opposed to crisis is that International bond markets question Irelands ability to keep creating liquidity by borrowing to plug the government deficit which only results from letting current spending run way out of line during the boom and then the boomier years. What the market is saying the more money the Irish government prints the higher risk premium they will apply to all existing money owed by the government.

How projects like a motorway to Waterford, Western Rail Corridor or Metro can survive in this context is beyond me. But a 2-3 year phase of fiscal responsibility will deliver a sound public purse when things recover in 2012.

Fergal R you are right on crossrail it is 13 miles of new tunnels if the distance from beyond Paddington and the Shenfield branches are included; it is however highly unlikely that the Shenfield branch will happen on time due to the costs escalating due to the fall in sterling and the fact that most tech is made in either the Eurozone or Japan which has levered costs in an upward direction dramatically due to currency movements.

It is also as you point out a more complex project which incidently started last month to tie in the new line with old stations such as Tottenham Court Road. The build costs in Euro terms are now c€21bn due to the depreciation in sterling or over €1.5bn per mile of tunnel.

Where I do fundamentally disagree with you is the passenger generation capacity; Swords is not metro material it has a population of 30,000? How many of them work locally or no longer work?

Ballymun is not highly dense enough, it might have been had they infilled around the towers but a lets give de population a back garden model was chosen.

DCU has how many students? Most of them live in Finglas, Ballygall, Old Ballymun and Whitehall/Sanrty. I’d say it probably has the highest cycely comutting rate of any uni in the country.

Hospitals don’t get undergrounds they get light rail or planned bus stops elsewhere; for example Northwick Park Hospital in London that is a university bounded by two tube lines had the metropolitan line stop located to serve the town of Kenton wheras the hospital remians good mile away on foot; they didn’t even bother building a proper pedestrian link.

That leaves The Airport which once had 23p.a.x. which is contracting rapidly, O’C St and Stephens Green which is no longer the centre of the office district, lets be honest 100m from the Green and you hit Whitefriar St / Wexford Street. The office district has headed East towards Baggot St / Mount Street / Grand Canal / South Docks and South towards Ballsbridge.

I can only conclude that public money has no place in this project as it doesn’t offer enough transport capicty for what it costs to build; it doesn’t even connect with the Dart system.

In terms of private money you mention Barclays who have yet to outline the scale of their sub-prime exposure if you believe the shareprice. Maquarie relied heavily on the carry trade of money borrowed in yen at cheap interest rates and then deposited in Aussie banks at much higher rates. The carry trade is dead becuase Japan is in deficit for the first time in decades. Unless they get a significant risk premium why would they invest in a project with major development risks; look at the RPA’s first experience with a new type of infrastructure. How far overspent was Luas in the end in percentage terms?

This leaves Noel Dempsey’s road show in the Gulf; I like Noel Dempsey and I really hope he pulls this one off as maybe the Gulf states can take a different view on investing i.e. no payback for 30 – 50 years to counteract a declining earnings base as natural resources decline.

Sadly it must be the only deliverable option on the table due to the absence of funding and the government’s inability to do unviable schemes financially.

The point is this: MN is a pretty good proposal, Dublin sorely needs better public transport and this proposal does all sorts of useful things. It is not perfect, but we need always be mindful that it is always easy to attack a detailed proposal, we compare the flaws to a counter proposal which lacks details and therefore flaws of its own.

To these benefits must now be added in negative the cost of not building it, a huge potential waste in terms of the lost work hours of the unemployed, the lost use of the otherwise retired work machines, the lost skills to be gains, the huge social cost of unemployment.

This still leaves the cost and here none of us really know what is in the tenders, the advantage of a PPP is that our total debt is still low, what is a problem is not out total borrowing but our ability to sell bonds: in a PPP is an alternative route to raising finance.

having parsed the arguments here dispassionately it is clear that the anti MN camp falls into 2 categories.

(1) we are now a sort of upmarket Greenland. We should squirrel away any money we have and find a rock to hide under. Until the Chinese come.
(2) freeloading bogmen worried that their handouts will be chopped want everything In Diblin axed just in case.

PVC Queen is likely in the 2nd category as she knows nothing about Dublin. Thinks sending non stopping trains to the airport via nth line, and leaving DARTs at a 30 min frequency is THE answer. ho ho.

MN will go ahead early next year. That is certain.

@marmajam wrote:

having parsed the arguments here dispassionately it is clear that the anti MN camp falls into 2 categories.

(1) we are now a sort of upmarket Greenland. We should squirrel away any money we have and find a rock to hide under. Until the Chinese come.
(2) freeloading bogmen worried that their handouts will be chopped want everything In Diblin axed just in case.

PVC Queen is likely in the 2nd category as she knows nothing about Dublin. Thinks sending non stopping trains to the airport via nth line, and leaving DARTs at a 30 min frequency is THE answer. ho ho.

MN will go ahead early next year. That is certain.

Tool.

Responding to proper arguments – Metro North definitely has a lot of major benefits and potential but I still think there’s a fundamental question about value for money. We could deliver so much more in the form of a massive, citywide integrated transport system for the same price as this.

Luas cost approximately €31million per km. We could quite feasibly build 4-5 times more length of track for the same cost as MN. And lets not talk about there being no room or capability to implement Luas citywide – If we give the city a top to bottom, radical overhaul in terms of traffic management and public transport we could get it to work.

One of the big arguments in favour of Metro North seems to be the fact that its ready to go. That still doesn’t make it anything more than a foolish vanity project, dreamt up by the leaders of a nation drunk on the wealth of an unprecedented boom.

At this stage it is very unlikely that both metro north & the interconnector will proceed – my concern is and always has been, that we will get the former at the expense of the latter.

There is widespread disagreement about the merits or otherwise of metro north whereas most can agree that the logic behind the interconnector & reconfiguration of the dart network is blindingly obvious. It has been the missing link for decades & will still be after we’re finished fumbling around with metro north only to decide that we just can’t justify further investment in the rail network. So if its an either or, and realistically it is, build the interconnector.

Personally, I don’t think that’s true. I think that either they both will be built, or neither. The Interconnector is more important, but is also much further away from starting. The government will have to decide first if it’s going to fund Metro North. If they don’t, I can’t imagine that they will cancel one large underground rail project, and then go and fund another one. Especially as economic conditions will probably be even worse when the Interconnector is ready to go.

reddy: I amn’t saying the sole argument for MN is that it is ready to go, I am suggesting that it is an additional argument for it, it will use a resource that will otherwise be wasted, lost work hours.

I agree that a lot of money has been wasted to date on this project but just because money has been spent to date is no excuse to spend a significant sum of money that the exchequer clearly doesn’t have. The same arguments could be used for the Western Rail corridor, Carlow-Waterford Motorway or the abandoned decntralisation programme.

This as Peter points out is a choice of how to divvy up the nations scarce resources and the integration of the wider rail network will probably be delayed another 20 years if this gets the green light. This project when looked at in any detail does not stack up and by presenting 5 very similar options at the enquiry the RPA have failed to offer the Bord a proper analysis of the real options which are:

1. Underground
2. Overground
3. Light Rail

This project is a throwback to the arrogant days when there were plans to build a motorway around every field and a luas line to every dublin post office. Times have changed and value for money is now top of the agenda.

@PVC King wrote:

I agree that a lot of money has been wasted to date on this project but just because money has been spent to date is no excuse to spend a significant sum of money that the exchequer clearly doesn’t have. The same arguments could be used for the Western Rail corridor, Carlow-Waterford Motorway or the abandoned decntralisation programme.

This as Peter points out is a choice of how to divvy up the nations scarce resources and the integration of the wider rail network will probably be delayed another 20 years if this gets the green light. This project when looked at in any detail does not stack up and by presenting 5 very similar options at the enquiry the RPA have failed to offer the Bord a proper analysis of the real options which are:

1. Underground
2. Overground
3. Light Rail

This project is a throwback to the arrogant days when there were plans to build a motorway around every field and a luas line to every dublin post office. Times have changed and value for money is now top of the agenda.

there you have it in a nutshell.
pvc queen doesn’t want MN. like most of the heavy rail fetishists.
all the schoolboy howler maths and fancy pie in the sky alternatives are a mere smokescreen.

this is the mindset that built the M50 the wrong size. Ireland has a huge future. if history teaches anything it is that we will develop exponentially over the next 20 years. we need to believe in ourselves and our ability to solve problems and think for the real future.

not run around like a bunch of panicking schoolgirls: ‘we’re doomed, we’re doomed’

Metro north is not quite there yet nor is the inter connector but I do believe that they are more important than any other road rail plans in the state given the small tweaks and finishing touches that they need… But I fear the finance will always be an unknown and unknownable like other well known contracts that have been agreed…

If anyone is interested in why Metro North is being built, rather than a DART extension, or light rail line, they should read this report, which sets out the reasoning behind it in detail. Transport21 is in Dublin was entirely cherry picked from the plan set out here.

Also interesting is their definitions of DART, Luas, and Metro.

DART: Electrified Heavy Rail
Luas: On street light rail
Metro: Segregated light rail

http://www.dto.ie/platform1.pdf

Marmajam, while I would be in broad agreement with you on this whole issue, and would hope those in power in this land would actually show a bit of foresight for once, you’re really not doing yourself any favours by going on like you have been.

When the pinnacle of your attempts to insult someone amount to calling them female, you’re basically coming across as an angry neanderthal.

Tone it down, eh?

@marmajam wrote:

there you have it in a nutshell.
pvc queen doesn’t want MN. like most of the heavy rail fetishists.
all the schoolboy howler maths and fancy pie in the sky alternatives are a mere smokescreen.

this is the mindset that built the M50 the wrong size. Ireland has a huge future. if history teaches anything it is that we will develop exponentially over the next 20 years. we need to believe in ourselves and our ability to solve problems and think for the real future.

not run around like a bunch of panicking schoolgirls: ‘we’re doomed, we’re doomed’

I agree that MN and interconnector are the most important projects in Transport 21. Way more important than the Athenry to Tuam line or the M17 or the luas extension to Bray. Therefore if any of the T21 plans go ahead, both of them should be priorities.

DjangoD

Thanks for your sentiments I suspect that Marmajam has had their prozac removed in the health cuts implemented due to the recession; hence the lack of argument and reliance on rude, crude personal attacks.

@Fergal wrote:

If anyone is interested in why Metro North is being built, rather than a DART extension, or light rail line, they should read this report, which sets out the reasoning behind it in detail. Transport21 is in Dublin was entirely cherry picked from the plan set out here.

Also interesting is their definitions of DART, Luas, and Metro.

DART: Electrified Heavy Rail
Luas: On street light rail
Metro: Segregated light rail

http://www.dto.ie/platform1.pdf

I agree with your analysis of the split and the approach of the DTO generally on this as being entirely correct in 1999 when the document scoping commenced.

There are however two key flaws in relying on this document.

Firstly at least half the document is concerned with demand side calculations which made a number of assumptions that were valid then but invalid now. The numbers underpinning the document were based on economic growth rates, employment growth and positive demographic shifts the like of which will never be seen again in the city and wider region.

The result of those growth rates both economic and employment was that the boom got boomier before the economy fell off a cliff, employment growth reversed and a new fiscal picture culminating in the April 7 mini – budget sets a revised set of expectations. I am clear that Ireland will recover within 2-3 years but that it will be on a more normal growth path in terms of employment, GDP, population etc – no more arrogant ministerial grand standing on delivering motorways to Waterford, heavy rail to Charlestown or Metro to Drumcoundra.

Secondly you failed to mention that the DTO strategy involved 3 lines firstly Cherrywood, secondly Tallaght and thirdly the Airport. The first and third would be a single line which would dramatically increase convenience and the second would feed large number of passengers and even may have had direct routing options with the airport nullifying the requirement for the disasterous Metro West.

To take an integrated well thought out plan and butcher 2 of the 3 lines required to give the system critical mass does not provide for valid comparison. To then devise a new Metro West that deprived the central part of the system critical mass but served a network of suburban shopping centres en route to the airport makes you wonder did they simply want to brainwash people with the concept ‘Airport Good, City Centre Bad’

To still peddle this airport centric solution in the absence of the critical mass required to make the DTO plan viable which would be to the detriment of the wider public transport network in the current fiscal climate illustrates just how self serving and unobjective the RPA are.

Metro North just like the ridiculous Metro West need to be canned; do we have ridership figures for the City west extension?

@DjangoD wrote:

Marmajam, while I would be in broad agreement with you on this whole issue, and would hope those in power in this land would actually show a bit of foresight for once, you’re really not doing yourself any favours by going on like you have been.

When the pinnacle of your attempts to insult someone amount to calling them female, you’re basically coming across as an angry neanderthal.

Tone it down, eh?

Well Django, you make your point reasonably. But if you were really reasonable you would not be ‘posting’ on this ‘forum’.

It’s a fantasy world with about as tenuous a relationship to the real world as a pub football team has to the Barcelonas of this world.

The pretentiousness is embarrassing.
Nobody doing anything really creative would have time for the guff spouted here.
I would have no interest in being popular here.

Just having a bit od fum with my friend pvc queen who is at the more hysterical end of the ‘afraid of their own shadow/we’re all doomed take on events.
Mind if you think like that it will come upon you.

Fortune favours the brave.
There is a huge future for ireland. With it’s geo-political locatiom, it is sparsely populated yet surrounded by wealthy neighbours who are the repository of the greatest engineering and technical expertise on the planet, conducive climate, potential to be the heart of alternative energy in a world of declining fossil fuel resources, there is unlimited scope for development.
To take a small risk on the future by building a future thinking metro that will cost peanuts in repayments in a few years…….. this would be wise.

Adios, and thanks for all the fish and chips.

1st of April
31 days of hearing at this stage

http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/Metro%20North%20Letters/MN%20An%20Bord%20Plean%C3%A1la%20Letter%20Mar%2012th%202009.pdf

got the blues

http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%203D%20Images/3D%20Griffith%20Avenue%20Stop%20March%202009/Griffith%20Ave_disclaimer_reduced.pdf
http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%203D%20Images/3D%20Griffith%20Avenue%20Stop%20March%202009/Griffith_Aerial_Shot_COMPOSITION%203D.pdf

@marmajam wrote:

Fortune favours the brave.
There is a huge future for ireland. With it’s geo-political locatiom, it is sparsely populated yet surrounded by wealthy neighbours who are the repository of the greatest engineering and technical expertise on the planet, conducive climate, potential to be the heart of alternative energy in a world of declining fossil fuel resources, there is unlimited scope for development.

And a free Aston Martin for everyone in the audience.

When the economy is restructured in a couple of years why not then look at building a proper integrated system?

This proposal is over-priced, under connected and comes at the wrong time.

in all the illustrations i’ve seen of metro stations, I have yet to see bi-lingual signage.

That is a good point. Id say bilingual signage is part of the consortium’s brief however, and the renders are serving their purpose as a rough outline of actual stations. It is a state project after all. What is the Irish for metro anyway?:D Metró, Metreo?

PVC King, I have to disagree, the project could not come at a better time. Our government seems reluctant to stimulate growth at the moment which is unfortunate. This project and others like it should go a long way towards that end. After our economy has been restructured, if we have no pull factors to attract investment then our efforts will have been for null. The fact is despite the boom, our infrastructure is sorely lacking, you know this. If we neglect capital projects like has been done in the past, we will only prolong our situation of high cost and low efficiency… this will hurt local and international companies and make it harder for us to climb our way out of debt. The system will be well integrated assuming ticketing is achieved with IC etc and will do more for the city than just stimulate its economy.

The fact is doing it “later” is too late, that attitude leaves us where we are now.
DBR please.

i think the Irish for metro is metro. Same in Spanish, French, portuguese etc. lol
Although that being said, the good people who erect sinage for Iarnród Éireann seem to think that the Irish for Docklands Station is, and I quote from said sign that can be spotted on mayor st: “Dugaílte Stáisuín”. Well I just about threw up with the shame of knowing that such obviously incorrect signage can be erected with no notice from DCC, DDDA or IÉ

Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm 😛

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? 😀 Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.

@ihateawake wrote:

Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm 😛

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? 😀 Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.

When is the last time an NTMA bond auction sold at 89.50?

Smacks of the 86 Inteligence unit report

@ihateawake wrote:

Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm 😛

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? 😀 Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.

I’m not blaming you for it lol, I hadn’t noticed the bins, probably because they’re all siver now and have no writting on them. And yes, I think you should take care of those awful signs 🙂

@PVC King wrote:

When is the last time an NTMA bond auction sold at 89.50?

Smacks of the 86 Inteligence unit report

what are you on about?

@cgcsb wrote:

what are you on about?

+1, wha?

Hheh, I know, I just meant theres almost an art to their carelessness :p

timing is not related?

http://ireland.archiseek.com/news/2009/000081.html

@cgcsb wrote:

what are you on about?

The discussion is whether one should spend an estimated €5bn building a metal tube under a little of Dublin City Centre to the greying suburbs and beyond to Dublin International Airport and a small town called Swords.

The people who would pay for that are the taxpayers; now that the taxpayers can’t pay for healthcare they turn to an agency called the National Treasury Management Agency or NTMA. Last week said agency went to Market or Capital Markets as they are known offering about 125 basis points above what the Bund (or what the prudent German Central Bank) would offer to tempt investors to part with their money.

These investors who for 10 years between say 1997 -2007 would have asked for between 3 and 15 basis to cover the extra risk. The markets refused the risk spread of almost 50% higher return than what the Germans pay; they wanted a further 175 basis points or slightly higher than what the Greeks pay and three times the risk spread the Spanish pay.

If €5bn is borrowed the markets will want over €5.6bn plus interest to hand over €5bn.

In 1986 a simple choice was set out by impartial independent economists, continue to spend money you don’t have and that capital markets don’t want to give you or restructure. Thankfully McSharry sorted things out very quickly and the rest is as they say history. I have no doubt Ireland can restructure successfully as there are a lot of qualities in the Irish business culture.

However you can’t live beyond your means and when your cost of credit is higher than Greece it is fair to say that you have no reputation to risk; that was the case in 1986 and it is the case again.

How this project can seriously be discussed against this backdrop is frankly laughable. I have no doubt that all the private sector submissions link price to government covenant and if that goes the penalties will be severe. The costs of project finance will be linked to perceived risk of the underwriter (The Taxpayer) and if big ticket items like underground light rail systems keep being bought you only have to change the R to a C to see where it leads.

Swords has the same population as Waterford City and has better shopping than Waterford. Hardly a small town. Dublin is the only capital city in Western Europe without a rail connection to the airport. You’re obviously not from Dublin if you think that the suburbs in question are “greying”

@cgcsb wrote:

Swords has the same population as Waterford City and has better shopping than Waterford. Hardly a small town. Dublin is the only capital city in Western Europe without a rail connection to the airport. You’re obviously not from Dublin if you think that the suburbs in question are “greying”

I agree with you cgcsb; the metro will make Dublin a better place, it puts more stuff in easy reach: the Mater, DCU, Croke Park, even the Hugh Lane will all be closer, in practical terms, to town. I have a skewed perspective, most of my colleagues are from abroad and we belong to a highly mobile highly qualified profession who choose where to live from a whole world of options. This is part of a wider truth: the modern competition, for people, for investment, is between cities and the metro north will add more stuff to Dublin, the airport, DCU and so on will be closer, Swords will be a better place to live for people working in town and so on and so on. It helps realize existing value in the city’s assets.

However, you are actually wrong; a number of Western European capitals don’t have airport links, Lisbon for example.

One of the issues with Metro North that hasn’t received much attention on this forum is that it was to facilitate significant residential and commercial development along the corridor and a significant population & business expansion of Swords. This was predicated on a growing economy and fast expanding population. It will, no doubt, still apply in the long-term provided that we can get our house in order now & over the next 5 years.

Regarding whether to proceed or not, we all have our favourite projects, mine is the interconnector. But the only sensible way to choose is to first pick the projects that will pay back the most, i.e. those that do best on a cost-benefit analysis. In other words, if we spend money on these projects will we get it back, is it a sensible investment? Those projects should go ahead first.

Government should, of course, get its house in order and cut back useless current spending so we can invest in these projects rather than continue to waste our hard earned taxes on useless & wasteful government spending.

@PVC King wrote:

The discussion is whether one should spend an estimated €5bn building a metal tube under a little of Dublin City Centre to the greying suburbs and beyond to Dublin International Airport and a small town called Swords.

The people who would pay for that are the taxpayers; now that the taxpayers can’t pay for healthcare they turn to an agency called the National Treasury Management Agency or NTMA. Last week said agency went to Market or Capital Markets as they are known offering about 125 basis points above what the Bund (or what the prudent German Central Bank) would offer to tempt investors to part with their money.

These investors who for 10 years between say 1997 -2007 would have asked for between 3 and 15 basis to cover the extra risk. The markets refused the risk spread of almost 50% higher return than what the Germans pay; they wanted a further 175 basis points or slightly higher than what the Greeks pay and three times the risk spread the Spanish pay.

If €5bn is borrowed the markets will want over €5.6bn plus interest to hand over €5bn.

In 1986 a simple choice was set out by impartial independent economists, continue to spend money you don’t have and that capital markets don’t want to give you or restructure. Thankfully McSharry sorted things out very quickly and the rest is as they say history. I have no doubt Ireland can restructure successfully as there are a lot of qualities in the Irish business culture.

However you can’t live beyond your means and when your cost of credit is higher than Greece it is fair to say that you have no reputation to risk; that was the case in 1986 and it is the case again.

How this project can seriously be discussed against this backdrop is frankly laughable. I have no doubt that all the private sector submissions link price to government covenant and if that goes the penalties will be severe. The costs of project finance will be linked to perceived risk of the underwriter (The Taxpayer) and if big ticket items like underground light rail systems keep being bought you only have to change the R to a C to see where it leads.

what is really laughable are the schoolboy howler maths you invariably cough up.

you have a perverse mission to prove MN is wrong but you consistently garble the basic facts of the project.

further you have a sort of theoretical dream concept of the reality of Dublin transport which makes it plain that your grasp is hopelessly vague..
Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous.

you continually spout banking technical data while getting the obvious wrong.
The fact that you use this guff, when it might as well be Chinese to most people is the sad ‘blinding with science’ tactic of someone who is bluffing.

Firstly, the capital cost of MN is being tendered for less than 3 billion.
So, what’s the tripe about borrowing 5 billion?

You previously stated that the 25 year payments would only be a subvention and the debt would still be owed.

Wrong.
After 25 yrs, the debt is cleared.

You think we won’t be able to afford it based on your prophecies for the Irish economy.
If you know so much how come you failed to see the recession and originally supported MN?

Your mindset is that which built the M50 too small at great cost eventually.
What is happening in the world economy is simply a correction.
Expansion and growth will resume quite quickly and increase exponentially as they always do.
MN will be peanuts in cost, likely even by the time it is built.

So, spout on.
It will be built. There is serious political will behind it. As said many times, no real money needed until it’s built in 2016 approx.

@marmajam wrote:

Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous.

fair point…it’s rediculous that people still believe the northern line is capable of providing an airport link..

what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston. That would add The airport to the national rail network as well as allowing for easy Belfast to Cork rail services. It would also free up the Northern Line for DART services only instead of having to share with intercity services. It would actually benefit the northern line, The Belfast service and people from other parts of the country who wish to access the airport without changing in the city centre.

It’s a project worth looking into after Transport 21 is finished and the economy is back on it’s feet.

At the moment I would be happy if the Metro and the Interconnector are built as well as the projects already under construction. Everything else can wait.

@notjim wrote:

However, you are actually wrong; a number of Western European capitals don’t have airport links, Lisbon for example.

Lisbon’s airport metro link is currently under construction.

@marmajam wrote:

what is really laughable are the schoolboy howler maths you invariably cough up.
you have a perverse mission to prove MN is wrong but you consistently garble the basic facts of the project. further you have a sort of theoretical dream concept of the reality of Dublin transport which makes it plain that your grasp is hopelessly vague..
Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous. .

As Shakespere said there are daggers in men’s smiles, you wouldn’t last 5 minutes in civilised company.

@marmajam wrote:

you continually spout banking technical data while getting the obvious wrong.
The fact that you use this guff, when it might as well be Chinese to most people is the sad ‘blinding with science’ tactic of someone who is bluffing.

Ireland loses its triple ‘A’ rating
Monday, 30 March 2009 19:49
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has today lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on Ireland to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA.’ It added that the country’s rating outlook is negative.

A lower credit rating usually makes borrowing more expensive.

S&P said the downgrade reflects its view that the deterioration of the country’s public finances will likely require a number of years of sustained effort to repair, on a scale greater than factored into the Government’s current plans.

It added that it expects the Irish economy will materially underperform the euro zone economy as a whole over the next five years.

S&P also said that the ratings on Ireland could be lowered again if the public finances weaken substantially further than what it currently assumes.

‘The outlook could be revised to stable if the government embraces a fiscal strategy that contains the rise in the public debt burden in line with Ireland’s modest economic growth prospects,’ it added.

Credit rating agencies rate the ability of companies and countries to meet their financial obligations and their reports are watched by those who lend money in capital markets.

I wish I could live in your fantasy World but unfortunately people like S & P have just cost the taxpayer a lot of money and reduced the capacity to borrow dramatically.

@marmajam wrote:

Firstly, the capital cost of MN is being tendered for less than 3 billion. So, what’s the tripe about borrowing 5 billion?

Colm McCarthy An Snip Nua – in yesterdays Sindo estimated €5bn but warned of further cost over-runs

@marmajam wrote:

You previously stated that the 25 year payments would only be a subvention and the debt would still be owed.
Wrong. After 25 yrs, the debt is cleared.

Make up your mind you either pay interest and capital during the period at a rate of 8% i.e. the absolute minimum the market would extend finance for such a project in a good market long since gone. The cost of which would be €468.39m p.a. or let it balloon into a debt pile compounded beyond belief as interest generates interest.

Which is it or do you have a mystery philanthropist in the wings?

S & P’s key phrase was ‘the downgrade reflects its view that the deterioration of the country’s public finances will likely require a number of years of sustained effort to repair, on a scale greater than factored into the Government’s current plans.’

I strongly hope that the policy makers in Ireland have a better grasp of reality than they had in the 1980’s, with people like marmajam I understand why there was mass emmigration in the 1980’s, no-one could listen to such tripe even a Bus Eireann to Leeds would be preferable.

The point is that the €5 billion is a total cost for the 30 year PPP including finance and maintenance and operation of the Metro for 30 years. The construction cost is only a portion of that.

Also, the money will not actually be due until it’s built, which will be 2015 at the absolute earliest. If we are out of the recession by then, we will want it. If we are not, it will only be a tiny drop in the ocean of our debt.

The world is heading for an inflationary period, with the US treasury printing money, and the ECB sure to follow, as export led Germany will be affected badly by losing its foreign markets, with GDP there expected to fall 7% this year by Commerzbank

If the Government can put any sort of shape on the public finances, now is the perfect time to borrow to invest in infrastructure, as inflation will rapidly burn the debt away as a recovery kicks in in world markets. This has to be balanced against the risk of the country losing the ability to borrow, but I would advocate cutting current spending to invest in capital works, as money is cheap now, and inflation will be high soon enough.

@PVC King wrote:

For someone so adamant it’s bizarre that you are unaware that the c5 billion refers to total cost (over 25 yrs Fergal), not the construction cost. In fact it will likely be less than 5 billion.
Fergal speaks sense, by 2015/16 and growth well recovered the cheap price available now will be a bargain. If not it will be a small part of debt.

It’s much like a mortgage?
you pay 2.5 billion for the house and 2.5 billion to the banks in interest?
Ireland just cannot print money now to do it because its on the euro?
But if they don’t have to pay for it for 6 years its just another 2 billion in interest?

So just say 2.5 billion to build it and 4.5 billion in interest to the banks does that make sense? Not including performance bonuses? and little to no long term maintenance…

The 2.5 billion dollar houses actually costs 7.5 billion?

bikes on trains page 44 same company as metro north EIS?

http://www.2030vision.ie/cms/uploads/files/en/2009-2-6-Uploads/Final-SEA-Measures-Report-for-consultation.pdf

@missarchi wrote:

It’s much like a mortgage?
you pay 2.5 billion for the house and 2.5 billion to the banks in interest?
Ireland just cannot print money now to do it because its on the euro?
But if they don’t have to pay for it for 6 years its just another 2 billion in interest?

So just say 2.5 billion to build it and 4.5 billion in interest to the banks does that make sense? Not including performance bonuses? and little to no long term maintenance…

The 2.5 billion dollar houses actually costs 7.5 billion?

The DoT’s own calculations are approx 250m a year for 5 yrs (after construction) and 150m a year for 20yrs.

I can’t believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: “what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston“.

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?

@SunnyDub wrote:

I can’t believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: “what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston“.

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?

none – it’s a good idea that will be built some day.

does nothing for integrated public transport in dublin. the airport link is only one element of MN.

It wouldn’t cost that much really because there is alot of open country between Drogheda and the airport, most of it would be surface tracks with a small underground section before it reaches Heuston. There is already a rail tunnel under the park. It’d be cheaper, and easier to build than the Western rail corridor and would create alot more revenue.

Benefits:
-National rail connection to Dublin Airport
-Direct Cork-Belfast Services
-Extra capacity an Connolly
-Frees up the northern line for more DART’s
-low cost compared to most road projects going ahead
-Could be extended to the new port in Bremore(if built) for frieght services between the port, airport and rest of country, and help us reach our Kyoto targets

Disadvantages:
anyone? excluding arguements about Irish people not being comfortable travelling underground

@SunnyDub wrote:

I can’t believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: “what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston“.

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?

the problem with this idea is that it solves a problem that has already been solved: intercity transport between cities in ireland and dublin airport. Once the motorways and the m50 upgrade are complete next year it will only be a couple of hours drive to cork or belfast. The traffic demand is only a couple of million journeys a year on these routes.

By contrast, it will still take more than an hour to complete many journeys within Dublin city. Demand for journeys within the city is in the hundreds of millions per year. MN would provide 35 million rapid comfortable public transport journeys per year in the city.

is anyone else as bored of this intransigent thread as I am?

Why can’t you just get on a bus?

@wearnicehats wrote:

Why can’t you just get on a bus?

You can its called the aircoach and is available from a number of Dublin, Cork and Belfast locations; it costs the taxpayer nothing.

The point is that the €5 billion is a total cost for the 30 year PPP including finance and maintenance and operation of the Metro for 30 years. The construction cost is only a portion of that

Assuming even a construction cost of €2.5bn the costs of servicing the debt are €200m a year before you repay anything on a projected 34m annual trips or €5.88 per trip per annum. I have no doubt that given the recent economic collapse people won’t be using the airport as much and the construction led demand is just not going to happen with Anglo, INBS and BoS on the floor.

Marmajams assertions that we won’t have to pay for it until 2015/16 are unfounded, assuming a 5 year construction period with equal inputs of €500m per year a further servicing cost of €40m year 1 – €160m in year 4 would be added to leave a pile of €400 by the time year 5 arrives giving interest costs based on €2.9bn bringing annual service costs to €232m plus operational subvention taking minimum subvention to €6.82 per passenger.

The further complication on the funding side is that Government debt is mostly on a 10 year term; so the bond issuance market will certainly take notice based on €1bn of interest being payable between delivery of the project and their debt maturing.

Then one looks at the cost over-runs on Luas and one has to wonder can this be delivered on budget or will it be London Olympic scale cost over-runs.

It just doesn’t stack up in 2009 which in terms of the structural deficit must include a timeline to 2019 in terms of financial planning. Appearances are everything and a little humility from Government would go a long way to repairing negative sentiment.

@PVC King wrote:

Marmajams assertions that we won’t have to pay for it until 2015/16 are unfounded, assuming a 5 year construction period with equal inputs of €500m per year a further servicing cost of €40m year 1 – €160m in year 4 would be added to leave a pile of €400 by the time year 5 arrives giving interest costs based on €2.9bn bringing annual service costs to €232m plus operational subvention taking minimum subvention to €6.82 per passenger.

Your assumptions are a little off. The terms of the PPP are that the Metro will be payed for as a series of availability payments over 30 years. The first such payment will be due when the Metro carries it’s first passengers. There will be penalties for operational outages. The operator will carry the risk that construction will run over cost, and sort out the finance until the thing is in operation.

€6.82 per passenger is a lot to start of at, but that will be eroded swiftly by inflation and passenger growth as the route corridor densifies. The route already serves a longer, more heavily populated corridor than either of the two existing lines, which are above capacity at peak times. With fairly modest passenger growth, to say 50 milion per annum, and a fairly modest estimate of an average inflation of 5% average over the next 30 years, that subvention will be down to €1 in todays money. And we’ll have a piece of transport infrastructure that will last a lot longer than 30 years.

Aircoach is not an adequate bus service for the airport. It is fine for occasional use for travellers, but is cost-prohibitive for the 13,000 people commuting to work there every day. And it is only a single destination for this line -very much not the be-all and end all of the line.

It would be hard to draw a straight line through Dublin and connect more large trip generators and residential areas than the Metro.

@Frank Taylor wrote:

the problem with this idea is that it solves a problem that has already been solved: intercity transport between cities in ireland and dublin airport. Once the motorways and the m50 upgrade are complete next year it will only be a couple of hours drive to cork or belfast. The traffic demand is only a couple of million journeys a year on these routes.

By contrast, it will still take more than an hour to complete many journeys within Dublin city. Demand for journeys within the city is in the hundreds of millions per year. MN would provide 35 million rapid comfortable public transport journeys per year in the city.

And you don’t see the problem with over reliance on private cars? Or the emmission of green house gases. When people get to the airport, where are they going to park for the duration of their trip away? at what cost? What about people that don’t have cars? With these few changes to the rail system, a train can make the journey alot quicker than a car. How long until the roads need more and more upgrading and widening?

@Fergal wrote:

Y our assumptions are a little off. The terms of the PPP are that the Metro will be payed for as a series of availability payments over 30 years. The first such payment will be due when the Metro carries it’s first passengers. There will be penalties for operational outages. The operator will carry the risk that construction will run over cost, and sort out the finance until the thing is in operation.

I’ve always found you to have a good take on things; I am therefore at a loss as to how you overlook the fact that however you package a finance agreement a rate of return has to be generated to compensate risk.

You can structure monthly payments and have very little compounding or you can pay every five years and generate large amounts of interest on interest. Whatever way you break the finance down this is going to cost a minimum €200m per year just to clear the interest.

I can also say I have yet to see real compensation paid in the event of outages it might add up to lost turnover and operational subvention and when you sue the consortium they blame a named sub-contractor who surprise surprise was liquidated as soon as the project completed and left a performance bond that works for 1 outage.

@Fergal wrote:

€6.82 per passenger is a lot to start of at, but that will be eroded swiftly by inflation and passenger growth as the route corridor densifies. The route already serves a longer, more heavily populated corridor than either of the two existing lines, which are above capacity at peak times.

With fairly modest passenger growth, to say 50 milion per annum, and a fairly modest estimate of an average inflation of 5% average over the next 30 years, that subvention will be down to €1 in todays money. And we’ll have a piece of transport infrastructure that will last a lot longer than 30 years..

Firstly the 34m was based on a demand side equation that is now distant history; I would say that 25m is a sustainable base to project from and that assumes unemployment stops at 450,000 people.

I don’t agree with your take on inflation; the pricing matrix will be pitched quite high to begin with and inflation of 5% per year in past years was not only unsustainable it was a disgrace, it was twice the Eurozone average indicating that policy makers got it very badly wrong.

If Ireland is to recover it will be on the basis of significant consumer deflation bringing prices back into line with the rest of Europe. Estimate 2% per year and it may if you are lucky keep pace with the operational subvention required to light, heat, clean, ticket and move the system.

Passenger growth is not likely to be anything like that forecast; the love affair with phrases such as demographics, location will be dormant for a long time and development will never be as profitable as it was during the early part of this decade. Put simply developers will develop what is mosty profitable i.e. where there are less development levies or none at all because the banks and sovent land bankers have a glut of development land that will take them more than a decade to develop at 50,000 units a year or what was developed in say 1998 when economic growth was c8%.

@Fergal wrote:

Aircoach is not an adequate bus service for the airport. It is fine for occasional use for travellers, but is cost-prohibitive for the 13,000 people commuting to work there every day. And it is only a single destination for this line -very much not the be-all and end all of the line..

The airport has always been a reasonably closed shop and commuting patterns are just as likely to come from Portmarnock or rural North County Dublin as along the metro route. In any event you can’t justify a €200m per year interest bill to serve a workforce who at most would generate 13,000 round trips per day.

@Fergal wrote:

It would be hard to draw a straight line through Dublin and connect more large trip generators and residential areas than the Metro.

You may not be too far wrong on this but you are talking about European scale expenditure and trying to treat Dublin as though it has the density of Lyon. Dublin had a choice in development pattern and chose Portarlington Garden City as its model of development; Dublin could just about justify a tunnel from Hueston to the Point Depot or Ballsbridge to Phibsborough. You need non stop 5-6 storey buildings for 5 minutes walking distance on each side to justify the costs.

Settle your government finances and then when there is money to effect change on a wider scale assess priorities.

This is a wonderfully erudite (if bamboozling) discussion; 2 economists, at least 3 conclusions. Who knows? Metro North is hugely ambitious, but caution and prudence now need to rule (i.e. it will not be built). PVC K is right; get govt finance right and then wait and see.

@johnglas wrote:

This is a wonderfully erudite (if bamboozling) discussion; 2 economists, at least 3 conclusions. Who knows? Metro North is hugely ambitious, but caution and prudence now need to rule (i.e. it will not be built). PVC K is right; get govt finance right and then wait and see.

architecture… we need to keep reminding ourselves…

“new financial architecture” must come today rather than be foisted off to another G20 summit.
Police use ‘corralling’ one dead

@johnglas wrote:

This is a wonderfully erudite (if bamboozling) discussion; 2 economists, at least 3 conclusions. Who knows? Metro North is hugely ambitious, but caution and prudence now need to rule (i.e. it will not be built). PVC K is right; get govt finance right and then wait and see.

bamboozling is the aim

beancounters? idiots in simple terms.

beancounters got us into this situation. Greenspan the arch mastermind.

They won’t get us out of it.

Certainly not spoofers on a forum ha ha

@marmajam wrote:

beancounters got us into this situation. Greenspan the arch mastermind.

Be careful what you wish for Allan or should I say Aladdin it might just come true…
we may end up with a green core or evergreen…

I would like to see a metro and Dublin should get one if the price and what have you is right.

But it just should not be all grey and the word strategic infrastructure needs every colour in the book to work.

http://www.bdonline.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=426&storycode=3136155
http://www.bdonline.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=426&storycode=3136709

The 10 teams for the greater Paris project are led by:

* Rogers Stirk Harbour, UK
* Jean Nouvel, France
* MVRDV, Netherlands
* Atelier Castro Denissof Casi, France
* LIN, Germany
* Studio 09, Italy
* Atelier Portzamparc, France
* The AUC (Djamel Klouche), France
* Atelier Lion, France
* Antoine Grumbach & Associés, France

The 10 plans will be presented in an exhibition at Cité de l’Architecture from April 29 until November 22.

Metro hearing told of further traffic restrictions

TIM O’BRIEN

Wed, Apr 01, 2009

Further restrictions on private cars in Dublin city during the building of Metro North were outlined at the opening of the Bord Pleanála into the multi-billion euro project in Dublin this morning.

Addressing the inquiry on the subject of traffic management during the five-year construction period, James Connolly SC for the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) said cars would be prevented from turning right onto O’Connell Bridge from Bachelors Walk. He also said cars would be prevented from turning right from O’Connell Bridge onto Eden Quay.

These restrictions are to be in addition to the plans for a “bus gate” at College Green which would prevent private vehicles moving from Dame Street to the O’Connell Street area.

Two lanes of traffic in each direction would be maintained in O’Connell Street while a new public transport bridge would be provided east of O’Connell Bridge, linking Hawkins Street and Marlborough Street.

The inquiry heard the traffic management plan would result in a decrease in average morning peak journey times through the city centre by about 8.3 per cent, but would actually improve the average bus speeds by one per cent.

The inquiry before senior Bord Pleanala inspector Kevin Moore also heard construction of the 18 kilometre route would create 4,000 direct jobs and a further 2,000 indirectly. The line from St Stephens Green via Dublin Airport to Belinstown north of Swords would have 17 stops, nine of which will be underground.

The planned metro also received a boost from Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey yesterday when expressed strong support for the project at a business seminar organised by Fingal County Council.

Mr Dempsey accused economic commentators of making ill-informed and ignorant statements, he said he would be recommending to cabinet colleagues that the project be approved, despite the downturn.

“There has been a lot of ill-informed comment. I’m not sure where all the negativity comes from. We are in difficult times, there’s no doubt about that, and tough decisions have to be made. While we deal with those current realities we have to realise there will be a future, we have to develop a sustainable framework for transport.

“We can’t continue to have ever-expanding urban sprawl, that will only result in longer commutes. The patterns of settlement and trip making have continued to rely on the private car” he said.

The Minister also revealed average journey times are in the order of 81 minutes from Swords to the city centre. City centre to Ballymun would be 61 minutes. “It’s unsustainable socially, economically and from an environmental and health point of view,” he said.

“The case for Metro North doesn’t depend on future growth. It’s in large part a response to growth which has already taken place.”

© 2009 irishtimes.com

Dempsey critical of ‘ignorant’ suggestions metro be scrapped

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0402/1224243862603.html

I wonder if this means the government is going to proceed with some of the Transport 21 projects and hopefully cut current spending in the budget. Now is surely the time to invest in infrastructure.

@marmajam wrote:

Mr Dempsey accused economic commentators of making ill-informed and ignorant statements, he said he would be recommending to cabinet colleagues that the project be approved, despite the downturn.

He was also quoted as saying if the figures are acruate it should go ahead.

450,000 is optomistic
-7.5% is optimistic

What part of patience do you not understand?

@SunnyDub wrote:

I can’t believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: “what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston“.

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?

Why not run a spur off the DART line around Portmarnock to the airport, this area is still mostly greenfield, and, if I’m not mistaken, most of it is under the flight path so development is currently restricted (but not a problem for a rail line). It would be a hell of a lot cheaper and will give the required connection to the city centre at Connolly (there are bottleneck issues there but other solutions can be found for that).

The line could be continued west past the airport and join up with the new Dunboyne-Clonsilla spur. This would open up a northern loop i.e. Connolly-Portmarnock-Airport-Dunboyne-Clonsilla-Castleknock-Drumcondra-Connolly. Most of the loop is already in place and the new bits would be over ground through mostly greenfield areas.

National funding… new financial architecture…
National bell curves…
So what will happen? investors see 5% as a good investment but in 10 years inflation is 6% and interest rates 8% to by that non PG house ;)? does public architecture pay annual dividends and bonuses? not to the architect anyway…

Government considers infrastructure bond plan

This would suggest an interest rate of about 5 per cent over the term of the investment, with the capital paid on maturity.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0404/1224244011712.html

THE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN between the Irish tourism industry and the realities of Irish history and heritage have always been pretty vague

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/magazine/2009/0404/1224243724177.html

@PVC King wrote:

He was also quoted as saying if the figures are acruate it should go ahead.

450,000 is optomistic
-7.5% is optimistic

What part of patience do you not understand?

Sucks that its happening, will happen again, as will growth. There is a future for Dublin, pvc, as long as we pursue one. If we shrivel and recede in this climate it will only prolong it.Stimulus is clearly working in the US, keynesian works. Sorry to say it, but I am very happy you’re not in politics 😛

@ihateawake wrote:

Sucks that its happening, will happen again, as will growth. There is a future for Dublin, pvc, as long as we pursue one. If we shrivel and recede in this climate it will only prolong it.Stimulus is clearly working in the US, keynesian works. Sorry to say it, but I am very happy you’re not in politics 😛

Stimulus is fine in theory and in moderation but when you end up with a quarter of all tax revenue going to pay for current expenditure from past years it is a very flawed concept. In the US they are printing money like it is going out of fashion; they are able to do so because of the investment policies of the Chinese and Saudi governments investing trillions of dollars n T-Bills yielding 2.75% on 10 year terms.

For the Irish to borrow the rate is 5.3% and it is only at that elevated level because of the international perception that the government finances are not being taken seriously. Discussing projects like this is a waste of precious resources and loss of focus from more pressing issues. The two priorities to get out of the current economic situation by spending are to commit resources to the training of the couple of hundred thousand people who are if they are not retrained may be in serious danger of becoming structurally unemployed having been made redundant recently from sectors that will not have similar labour requirements again and grant aiding new industries or providing new equity to new operators of previously well established employers that have collapsed and if restructures can operate profitably.

There will be one of two outcomes on metro either sense will prevail and this boom era project will be shelved until a proper cost benefit analysis is done of all of Dublin’s public transport needs or the project will be approved and shelved until public finances improve which will be at least 2014.

When the NTMA was established in 1990, it took more than three months’ tax revenue just to pay interest on the debt. Debt has a habit of catching up with you if fall into the trap of losing perspective of where in the cycle you are.

@SunnyDub wrote:

Dempsey critical of ‘ignorant’ suggestions metro be scrapped

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0402/1224243862603.html

I wonder if this means the government is going to proceed with some of the Transport 21 projects and hopefully cut current spending in the budget. Now is surely the time to invest in infrastructure.

here’s a headline – “minister seeks to suggest government are great shortly before election campaign begins shocker”

metro north is dead in the water. Just look at the way the RPA behave – spend 30 odd million on “consultants” to decide whether it’s a good idea and send one of the biggest regeneration schemes around (ballymun) to ABP because they don’t like the link to the possible future Metro North stop? The RPA haven’t a clue and it ain’t happening any time soon

get a bus get a taxi get over it

RPA’s version

http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_airport_swords/build_and_operation_permission/Pages/MetroNorthRailwayOrderOralHearingEvidence.aspx

It looks like the Fusiliers Arch arch will remain insitu…

@wearnicehats wrote:

here’s a headline – “minister seeks to suggest government are great shortly before election campaign begins shocker”

metro north is dead in the water. Just look at the way the RPA behave – spend 30 odd million on “consultants” to decide whether it’s a good idea and send one of the biggest regeneration schemes around (ballymun) to ABP because they don’t like the link to the possible future Metro North stop? The RPA haven’t a clue and it ain’t happening any time soon

get a bus get a taxi get over it

Sounds like so much consultancy you would have needed a bus as opposed to a taxi to move it.

€30m would pay for 500 students to qualify on a 3 year degree course producing €1.5m a year in tax receipts in the early stages of their careers or 1,500 redundant people to go back to do a 1 year masters which assuming the course is relevant and they secure employment would produce €4.5m p.a. in tax revenue in the early stages of their new careers.

€30m for a planning submission and or resulting process regarding someone else’s (fellow public sector) application if correct is just plain wrong and symtomatic of how naked people get found out when the tide goes out.

Are people still reading each others posts before replying, are people even reading their own replies?

Buildings ‘at risk’ from Metro tunnels

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/buildings-at-risk-from-metro-tunnels-1698024.html

The Moscow metro, much of which was built during Stalin’s reign, is one of the most efficient in the world. Many of the stations are stunningly opulent ‘people’s palaces’, built in a socialist realist style. But using the metro can be stressful because of overcrowding and poor air quality.

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/metro-blues-pushing-150-muscovites-to-suicide-each-year-1688401.html

and

Counsel for the RPA, James Connolly, said the project was one of the largest infrastructure projects in the history of the State.”The scheme is one of the most exciting ever undertaken in the State, bringing myriad benefits to the city,” he said.

“It will have a positive impact on the city in terms of congestion and provide a positive image of the city.”

He added that if An Bord Pleanala was to attach conditions, the RPA should be allowed make submissions on any proposed changes to the plan.

“If a Railway Order is granted, the scheme will be delivered by PPP,” he said. “The imposition of seemingly innocuous conditions could affect the tendering process and the project as a whole.”

The planning hearing is expected to last up to six weeks.

DCC and FG already have conditions they are edging towards. I have never dealt with no conditions in my life from the board or DCC for that matter… Is this case going to be any different?

@notjim wrote:

Are people still reading each others posts before replying, are people even reading their own replies?

Not like you to be so cryptic!

What strand of the discussion do you feel would merit more attention?

get a bus get a taxi get over it

…snappy….

Dempsey has come out strongly this week in favour of both IC and MN, theres another bubble burst.

@PVC King wrote:

€30m would pay for 500 students to qualify on a 3 year degree course producing €1.5m a year in tax receipts in the early stages of their careers or 1,500 redundant people to go back to do a 1 year masters which assuming the course is relevant and they secure employment would produce €4.5m p.a. in tax revenue in the early stages of their new careers.

And where will these jobs materialise from eh? Who will employ them? If there is no infrastructure to get people moving around the city we will be uncompetitive, as we are now, especially after the current climate of capital investment all over europe. We are not up to scratch, tbh we never have been and if we dont get there to take advantage of recovery, it might never come for us.

Reading between the lines, it looks to me that the Interconnector & Metro will go ahead…

Budget may see bond to fund major projects

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0406/1224244067974.html

Dempsey supports cross city underground

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0406/1224244068221.html

we’ll see…..

according to rte news tonight no decision on the metro until “December at least”

@wearnicehats wrote:

according to rte news tonight no decision on the metro until “December at least”

December 2019?

It will interesting to see the NTMA bond spread come close of play Thursday when markets have digested the fine print in the budget.

Hey, wasn’t it scary when the first question at Brian Cowen’s press conference was from Bloomberg: what were they doing there?

@PVC King wrote:

December 2019?

It will interesting to see the NTMA bond spread come close of play Thursday when markets have digested the fine print in the budget.

Company tax to be revised to 50%😮

Some one invests 1000 euro in the bond they pay 1000 euro a year in metro cards the metro cards increase with inflation/wages/ect %5 they get 5% return on investment or so they thought 🙂 they pay 30% tax on the return so in the end they end up 15 euro behind not including inflation so the inital investment yields a 1.5-5% annual loss
over 30 years a compound interest on -4%…. investment gone…

controlled bell curves…

@PVC King wrote:

December 2019?

It will interesting to see the NTMA bond spread come close of play Thursday when markets have digested the fine print in the budget.

Getting a bit desperate PVC? 😀

I was wondering what the delay was…

17th Century Parisian architecture I”l hold my breath until the weekend;)

Evidence – Tuesday 7th April 2009

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Description of Architectural Design John Smith 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 1 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 2 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 3 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 4 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 5 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 6 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 7 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Architectural Design John Smith Part 8 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 1 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 2 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 3 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 4 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 5 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 6 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 7 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Tunnel and Stop Design Paul Brown Part 8 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Description of Enabling Works Doug Thomson 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Enabling Works Doug Thomson Part 1 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Enabling Works Doug Thomson Part 2 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Enabling Works Doug Thomson Part 3 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Description of Construction Methodology Richard Tucker 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Description of Construction Methodology Richard Tucker 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing 3D Simultation Description of Construction Methodology Richard Tucker 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Construction Schedule and Sequencing John McLoughlin 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Construction Schedule and Sequencing John McLoughlin Part 1 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Construction Schedule and Sequencing John McLoughlin Part 2 070409

Metro North Oral Hearing Presentation Construction Schedule and Sequencing John McLoughlin Part 3 070409
Evidence – Wednesday 8th April 2009

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Overall EIS Steve Purnell 080409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Airborne Noise Steve Mitchell 080409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Vibration and Groundborne Noise Rupert Taylor 080409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Soil and Geology Brian Rouse 080409

Metro North Oral Hearing Proof of Evidence Air Quality Roger Barrowcliffe 080409

http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%20RO%20OH%203D%20Flash%20Movies%20080409/Metro_North_Final_Animation.swf

@missarchi wrote:

http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%20RO%20OH%203D%20Flash%20Movies%20080409/Metro_North_Final_Animation.swf

Very good, better than anything I would have expected from the RPA.

I keep getting a blank page when I try to play the video:confused: Do you need a special player or a password or something:confused:

@darkman wrote:

I keep getting a blank page when I try to play the video:confused: Do you need a special player or a password or something:confused:

Just Adobe Flash Player I think.

Thanks but I have the latest version of Adobe Flash player so im pretty sure im not the only person who can’t seem to view this – someone put it on youtube!:p:)

Hmmm, I’m trying but I can’t download it 🙁

It takes a few minutes to load – I’d give it up to 10.

Here’s another one:

http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%20RO%20OH%203D%20Flash%20Movies%20080409/TBM.swf

Shows how the tunnelling takes place.

wow, that machine is really impressive

@marmajam wrote:

Getting a bit desperate PVC? 😀

The patient remains quite ill suffering from a twin condition of soveriegn bond spread bloating brought on by a severe case of political dithering with the public purse. Whether the Government follows the Anglo Irish Bank strategy of ignoring ratings agencies or whether it believes it will wake up from the current situation which isn’t a dream doesn’t make me desperate. It makes me sad that there aren’t people around this time to make the hard decisions on behalf of what is a hard working and creative tax base who will pay for this lack of action for decades to come.

This project never stacked up on cost benefit analysis and as the tide has gone out this project must now pass financial tests it should have faced a very long time ago. Dublin needs a proper public transport and not a metro that is over-priced, doesn’t enjoy the population densities required to make it even operationally viable or pass through areas that are capable of largescale redevelopment.

Compare this scenario to building the interconnector and building Metro West not as a direct route from Tallaght to the airport but as two branch lines from the rest of the Dart network. In one move you deliver

1. Intergration of all existing lines providing single mode interchange
2. Metro North to the Airport
3. Metro South West to Tallaght
4. Metro West linking Tallaght to the Airport.
5. You have an underground that acts as a spine to deliver a miriad of routings all of which make a contribution

What you don’t want is the preservation of an agency that made no effort to intergrate public transport or ticketing and spent according to WNH €30m on an objection that probably could have been solved over a pint of beer and not squandering millions as a result of acting in a fashion that could only be described as being drunk with power.

@pvc King wrote:

the Patient Remains Quite Ill Suffering From A Twin Condition Of Soveriegn Bond Spread Bloating Brought On By A Severe Case Of Political Dithering With The Public Purse. Whether The Government Follows The Anglo Irish Bank Strategy Of Ignoring Ratings Agencies Or Whether It Believes It Will Wake Up From The Current Situation Which Isn’t A Dream Doesn’t Make Me Desperate. It Makes Me Sad That There Aren’t People Around This Time To Make The Hard Decisions On Behalf Of What Is A Hard Working And Creative Tax Base Who Will Pay For This Lack Of Action For Decades To Come.

This Project Never Stacked Up On Cost Benefit Analysis And As The Tide Has Gone Out This Project Must Now Pass Financial Tests It Should Have Faced A Very Long Time Ago. Dublin Needs A Proper Public Transport And Not A Metro That Is Over-priced, Doesn’t Enjoy The Population Densities Required To Make It Even Operationally Viable Or Pass Through Areas That Are Capable Of Largescale Redevelopment.

Compare This Scenario To Building The Interconnector And Building Metro West Not As A Direct Route From Tallaght To The Airport But As Two Branch Lines From The Rest Of The Dart Network. In One Move You Deliver

1. Intergration Of All Existing Lines Providing Single Mode Interchange
2. Metro North To The Airport
3. Metro South West To Tallaght
4. Metro West Linking Tallaght To The Airport.
5. You Have An Underground That Acts As A Spine To Deliver A Miriad Of Routings All Of Which Make A Contribution

What You Don’t Want Is The Preservation Of An Agency That Made No Effort To Intergrate Public Transport Or Ticketing And Spent According To Wnh €30m On An Objection That Probably Could Have Been Solved Over A Pint Of Beer And Not Squandering Millions As A Result Of Acting In A Fashion That Could Only Be Described As Being Drunk With Power.

B. S.!!!!!!!!!!

Which part?

@PVC King wrote:

Which part?

all parts.
you live in a fantasy world.

@PVC King wrote:

Which part?

I’d have to say all parts too

The students who commute to DCU and TCD, The people who wish to travell to the matter hospital, The people who wish to access the airport, the 40,000+ people of Swords and the people who live along all the other stops will make it feasible. Swords, Ballymun and the space in between have a huge potential for future developement. What makes you think they don’t?

People who opposed the luas also used to say silly things like this but they were soon silenced when it became profitable in less than two years of opperation.

Typical of you to throw the mud without even attempting to disprove what has been said. Are you saying that

1. That Metro stands up on financial grounds and won’t cost hundreds of millions for pounds a year for a 30 year period?

2. The Government has the money?

3. That capital markets are giving indications that the Capital expenditure programme is the way forward?

4. That the direct route is the best one?

5. Where are the redevelopment opportunities are on the Metro North Line?

6. That the RPA have shown good adherance to their budgets over the years?

Far from living in a fantasy world I am merely pointing out the obvious; the project is not viable, there is no money to pay for it and promotors have no track record on delivering projects on time and on budget. Put simply the RPA handing the Metro West project to CIE is the only way forward the airport would be connected to Stephens Green with a 30 minute Journey which is shorter than train times from Gatwick, Hong Kong or Charles De Gaulle. It would cost a fraction of the price. Answer the 6 questions above or walk.

The simple minded faith that the world must conform to any so-called economist’s strictures, in reality, is a type of flat earthism. Particularly when the same strictures are liberally littered with schoolboy howlers.

@cgcsb wrote:

I’d have to say all parts too

The students who commute to DCU and TCD, The people who wish to travell to the matter hospital, The people who wish to access the airport, the 40,000+ people of Swords and the people who live along all the other stops will make it feasible. Swords, Ballymun and the space in between have a huge potential for future developement. What makes you think they don’t?

People who opposed the luas also used to say silly things like this but they were soon silenced when it became profitable in less than two years of opperation.

No disrespect as I think you are very well intentioned on this but you are talking about a multi-billion Euro project that travels through areas that are just not dense enough to support the requirements for a metro costing this amount of money to operate let alone pay for.

TCD’s population is mostly based either South of the river or in Druncoundra/ Phibsboro both of which are already served by the Maynooth line and Pearse Station has a direct connection to TCD. DCU would deliver passengers but not on the same level as TCD and was previously pointed out most students there live around Ballygall/Whitehall as the former housing association/council houses are cheap as chips and suit multiple occupation.

You can’t compare this to Luas which both cost a fraction of this in cost terms and if broken down reads like.

Green Line – Stephens Green to Dundrum successful and at capacity and Dundrum onwards acceptable and capable of delivering additional development cost c€300m

Red Line – Connolly – St James Hospital successful and at capacity and from St James’ Hospital to Kinsgwood is clearly not viable until it serves the local population of D24 getting to the Square and neighbouring leisure, healthcare and retail facilities. Cost €375m.

Both of these lines serve a population equivelent to the Metro line Tallaght with over 100,000 is a major settlement Swords at 33,998 is not the same; Swords village in fact has a falling population that now extends to a mere 2,514 people. Now I have no idea where the village ends for the purposes of the census but you need to use a wider measurement of 1 mile or 15 walk as being the catchment for a metro station. Would that take you to 10,000?

@marmajam wrote:

The simple minded faith that the world must conform to any so-called economist’s strictures, in reality, is a type of flat earthism. Particularly when the same strictures are liberally littered with schoolboy howlers.

Which you lack the gravitas to point out and statistics to expose as what you assert

gravitas me arse.

lies, damn lies and statistics…….

I wouldn’t call either the census or capital markets or ratings agencies lies or liars. Garrett Fitzgerald was once quoted as saying he could prove most points either way through the use of statistics and he was probably right.

However population or employment density is either there or it isn’t and money is either there or it isn’t and on so many grounds this project is just not even close to being sensible. The ridiculous stand alone project of Metro West could completely by accident prove as spurs of the Dart network to be the solution if it is put under proven management. When the principal proponent of a scheme is talking about ‘Off Balance Sheet’ accounting can’t it be said that we truely have learned nothing about how others perceive us; there are 87 million reasons to act within our means at this time and start building a viable intergrated network.

I am not calling anyone a liar, but rather simply pointing out that statistics can say whatever you want them to, statisitcs represent a snapshot, a moment, and by its nature and in particular in the way that you have quoted them, represent a lack of foresight. One of you questions sums this up nicely: “5. Where are the redevelopment opportunities are on the Metro North Line?” The simple answer is everywhere; no some of the proposed stops do not currently have the capacity to support a metro, to make it profitable in the next 10 or 30 years; but that then is precisely the reason to build it; build it and they will come.

As someone who works in real estate you get a nose for unlocking value and looking at Metro North it goes through the wrong types of area once you leave the canal.

Drumcoundra is a heritage area which makes high density development difficult, Glasnevan is residential at 15-20 units per acre which makes site assembly a nightmare. Ballymun has opportunites but would be a mere 10 minutes by feeder bus to the Metro West alignment.

Contrast that with the Docklands which is either developed at sustainable levels or is a series of cleared sites. Pearse Station to Christchurch and Hueston Station/Clancy Barracks is already at sustainable densities. Kilmainham towards Ballyfermot is perfect development land as it has all the services such as roads, power, gas etc and the building types of almost redundant 1970’s and 1980’s industrial sheds that continues to Park West which is there in terms of density before going back to a route almost all the way to the airport that it is either redundant industrial areas or modern large scale shopping centres. The only way to get cranes in is to provide a land bank that is actually realisable. All you need is one householder who decides they don’t want to move and a scheme doesn’t happen. Thankfully industrial amenity is not a valid concept and the sites tend to be a lot bigger.

Having looked at the City West Luas extension it has been built and they haven’t come to do anything taller than 3 stories high.

an estate agent. explains the delusions of grandeur.
not surprising they see doom everywhere. they were the main lemmings running to the cliff.

@marmajam wrote:

an estate agent. explains the delusions of grandeur.
not surprising they see doom everywhere. they were the main lemmings running to the cliff.

I work at a more strategic level than residential agency, do you have any actual arguments or are you simply a troll?

@PVC King wrote:

Having looked at the City West Luas extension it has been built and they haven’t come to do anything taller than 3 stories high.

That line hasn’t been started on yet…

@PVC King wrote:

I work at a more strategic level than residential agency, do you have any actual arguments or are you simply a troll?

dear oh dear 😀

Construction has according to the link below;

http://www.transport21.ie/MEDIA/Press_Releases/Construction_begins_on_Citywest_Luas_Extension.html

Not that much will be built on the route based on Luas as journey times of an hour to IFSC are hardly attractive; a lot quicker to drive or take a feeder bus to Hazelhatch and take a Dart

@marmajam wrote:

dear oh dear 😀

Of your last 7 posts 6 have had no content relating to the issues and the seventh is a press article with what appears to be a single line of introduction. You clearly have no argument….

I’m not sure what level of construction that is, I haven’t seen any and have passed that way recently. However, there is a surprisingly large amount of new residential property already built around CityWest and Saggart which will be well served by that spur.

There is also the fact that Luas is a far more attractive mode of transport to passengers than the bus routes that serve that part of Tallaght. Luas might take a bit longer off peak, but not in a million rush hours!

The ‘build it and they will come’ argument is yet to be proved or disproved on this one in fairness.

Duplex flats are the City West / Saggart idea of high density and as the majority of housing is 3-bed semi even if the whole area is developed it is unlikely to attract large scale development levies.

To attract developers to deliver viable densities in the context of development levies that don’t exist elsewhere you need journey times to the City Centre where most employment is located of c 30 minutes maximum. You also need sites that are capable of development i.e. undeveloped land or commercial land where economics and not emotions are the driving force. On the basis of existing density Metro North fails and on the grounds of deliverable development land it fails again.

In contrast the entire route of the Interconnector from North Docklands to Kilmainham passes the existing density test and from there to Clondalkin and most of Metro West would pass one of the ability to develop at sufficient density due to existing land use and sub 30 minute journey times to the City Centre to create demand from young professionals. Having a Dart/Luas interchange at Belgard would greatly assist City West taking journey times down dramatically, what would Metro North do for the good people of Tallaght?

what can you say when confronted by consistent self delusion.
the citywest luas contract was signed on 10th Feb. (2009) effectively nothing is built yet.
pvc queen posted above ‘citywest luas extension…has been built’
still he tries to wriggle out of that gaffe. and all his arguments are fatally filleted by similar elephant sized blunders. which have been pointed out.
in fact I have absolutely no doubt we will recover from this recession much more quickly than is predicted. the situation is fluid and somewhat unique.
MN will be built and construction will commence early next year.
of course, in about 10 yrs, when all are praising the wonder of it and the repayments are a relative pittance, the pvcs of the world will still be stuck-record like saying it was a mistake and we’d be even better off if some other pie-in-the-sky scheme had been cooked up.

@marmajam wrote:

what can you say when confronted by consistent self delusion.
the citywest luas contract was signed on 10th Feb. (2009) effectively nothing is built yet.
pvc queen posted above ‘citywest luas extnsion…has been built’ .

It will complete in 2 years time and the level of construction activity on the route clearly proves that the tenet ‘Build it and they will come’ only applies to building the right project.

@marmajam wrote:

still he tries to wriggle out of that gaffe. and all his arguments are fatally filleted by similar elephant sized blunders. which have been pointed out..

Built or under construction is not that different when you are talking about people with the capacity to deliver on time and on budget. Luas to date has been handled in such a ham fisted way that you are right it was a blunder on my part to give the RPA the benefit of the doubt.

@marmajam wrote:

in fact I have absolutely no doubt we will recover from this recession much more quickly than is predicted. the situation is fluid and somewhat unique..

It is unique tax revenues have shrunk by a third because of the suicidal reliance on Stamp Duty and VRT. The facilitation of big ticket purchases is only supported by a healthy banking system; it will work out but it will take at least 5 years and will onloy work out if capital markets and ratings agencies are on board; right now they need to be convinced and green lighting this project will clearly not assist their ability to convince investors that the risk profile is moving in the right direction and that it is wise to lend money to the government at the much tighter spreads that the government requires to sort the mess out.

@marmajam wrote:

MN will be built and construction will commence early next year. of course, in about 10 yrs, when all are praising the wonder of it and the repayments are a relative pittance, ..

The only way the repayments on this project will be a pittance will be if it is ‘off balance sheet and only part of the interest is cleared. Whilst GDP rocketed from 1994 – 2007 the next 10 years will see an average of 3% growth yoy in the most optimistic forecasts delivers compound growth of less than 35% over the period leaving the tax base just about repaired over the period. There is no money for unviable projects. Not that you have ever supplied an annualised cost brought back to Net Present Values.

@marmajam wrote:

the pvcs of the world will still be stuck record like saying it was a mistake and we’d be even better off it some other pie-in-the-sky scheme had been cooked up.

There is nothing Pie in the sky about integrating two seperate projects one from CIE which has more or less universal backing and the other from the RPA which in that form was unviable but with a connection to the City Centre and the monopoly route from the City Centre to the airport has far more potential. What is pie in the Sky about giving Tallaght Dart or a journey time to the Airport of c 30 minutes. They might have filled in a lot of the sea to build Hong Kong International Airport but the train follows the Coast in a far from straight line.

@PVC King wrote:

Construction has according to the link below;

http://www.transport21.ie/MEDIA/Press_Releases/Construction_begins_on_Citywest_Luas_Extension.html

Not that much will be built on the route based on Luas as journey times of an hour to IFSC are hardly attractive; a lot quicker to drive or take a feeder bus to Hazelhatch and take a Dart

I don’t think a red line tram has ever taken an hour. The average journey time was 40 mins when it opened, but since the grade seperation of the red cow interchange, journey times have been reduced they could easily be reduced further if some changes to the line in the City centre were made.

@cgcsb wrote:

I don’t think a red line tram has ever taken an hour. The average journey time was 40 mins when it opened, but since the grade seperation of the red cow interchange, journey times have been reduced they could easily be reduced further if some changes to the line in the City centre were made.

This, unfortunately, is entirely typical of PVC’s arguments. At every turn there is some crucial misapprehension or skewed take on events.
I often get the Tallaght LUAS. 40 mins every time from Connolly to Tallaght. (The bus – anything from 70 – 90 mins or worse).
TBF it is very clear that it is for this reason he invariably takes refuge in goobledegook/unnecesary technical jargon. Seems entirely blind to these howlers.

@PVC King wrote:

TCD’s population is mostly based either South of the river or in Druncoundra/ Phibsboro both of which are already served by the Maynooth line and Pearse Station has a direct connection to TCD.

Because all the trinity heads are southsiders and those that aren’t live in phibsboro/Drumcondra. What a wild assumption to make.

@PVC King wrote:

DCU would deliver passengers but not on the same level as TCD and was previously pointed out most students there live around Ballygall/Whitehall as the former housing association/council houses are cheap as chips and suit multiple occupation.

student population of DCU: 15,000. Student population of Trinity: 15,000. Again most students infact do not live in student accomadation, that’s wild speculation

@PVC King wrote:

You can’t compare this to Luas which both cost a fraction of this in cost terms and if broken down reads like.

as the great Barack Obama once said, “Yes we can!”

@PVC King wrote:

Green Line – Stephens Green to Dundrum successful and at capacity and Dundrum onwards acceptable and capable of delivering additional development cost c€300m

The Green line runs mostly seperate from road traffic because it runs on a dissused 19th century railway alowing to have almost no interaction with traffic. The extensions being built are either on the railway alignment or greenfield. Where as that is not possible on the MN route. There is no pre existing surface space for a light rail withought seriously damaging road capacity and having multiple at grade junctions with other roads leading to unacceptable journey times.

@PVC King wrote:

Red Line – Connolly – St James Hospital successful and at capacity and from St James’ Hospital to Kinsgwood is clearly not viable until it serves the local population of D24 getting to the Square and neighbouring leisure, healthcare and retail facilities. Cost €375m.

ok so a hypothetical line between James’s and Kingswood is not possible. Your point?

@PVC King wrote:

Both of these lines serve a population equivelent to the Metro line Tallaght with over 100,000 is a major settlement Swords at 33,998 is not the same; Swords village in fact has a falling population that now extends to a mere 2,514 people. Now I have no idea where the village ends for the purposes of the census but you need to use a wider measurement of 1 mile or 15 walk as being the catchment for a metro station. Would that take you to 10,000?

Tallaght takes up a far bigger area than Swords. West Tallaght is baisically unaccessable. just miles and miles of housing estates and cul de sacs. No major roads or clearly defined village centres. That’s where the bulk of the 100,000 people live. No where near the luas stops. Swords population is alot denser with baisically all of it’s population inside a 20 minute walk radius.

You say the villiage population is only 2,514 people. Well that’s alot considering only the apartments around main street are counted. If you consider the red line terminus beside the Square shopping centre, that has a population of 0, because it’s a shopping centre . By the way, 33,998 people in Swords? if you count the near by Kinsealy area(10 mins walk from the proposed Metro Stop on the Swords By-pass) your looking at more than 43,000 people that can practically access the metro. Unlike the people who live in Tallaght and yet are isolated from the red line

@cgcsb wrote:

Because all the trinity heads are southsiders and those that aren’t live in phibsboro/Drumcondra. What a wild assumption to make. student population of DCU: 15,000. Student population of Trinity: 15,000. Again most students infact do not live in student accomadation, that’s wild speculation

My point on DCU was not that they live in formal student accomodation it is that they move in together in houses in low rent high convenience areas. Unlike UCD or TCD there are very limited competing land uses to DCU. Why would anyone in their right mind studying at DCU not live locally and walk or cycle to college? If you live at home you get free accomodation and get fed so you can easily put up with the bus!

On TCD I can only speak from anecdotal evidence from the mostly alumni and teaching staff that I have met and none of them lived on the Metro North alignment north of the Canal; the point I continue to make is that once you go past Drumcoundra there is no population density worth talking about; but in Drumcoundra you have a direct line to Pearse station and if you live any closer to the CC you have no excuse not to walk.

@cgcsb wrote:

as the great Barack Obama once said, “Yes we can!”

And they can with trillions of dollars from sovereign wealth funds prepared to accept 2.75% rates of return. Right now International investors are clearly saying no you can’t to any more goverment expenditure!

@cgcsb wrote:

The Green line runs mostly seperate from road traffic because it runs on a dissused 19th century railway alowing to have almost no interaction with traffic. The extensions being built are either on the railway alignment or greenfield. Where as that is not possible on the MN route. There is no pre existing surface space for a light rail withought seriously damaging road capacity and having multiple at grade junctions with other roads leading to unacceptable journey times.

My point was that one cost €300m the other €4bn are you saying that metro north will provide 13 times the benefits?

@cgcsb wrote:

ok so a hypothetical line between James’s and Kingswood is not possible. Your point?

That this section of the Luas is pretty much empty; just because you build a line does not mean that it will be used. The densities around Drimnagh are not far off the densities for much of Metro North. If the middle section of the Red Line were taken as a stand alone project it would never have been built; the economics in this case work out because the entire line cost €375m if it had cost €4bn there is no margin for error for poor route selection.

@cgcsb wrote:

Tallaght takes up a far bigger area than Swords. West Tallaght is baisically unaccessable. just miles and miles of housing estates and cul de sacs. No major roads or clearly defined village centres. That’s where the bulk of the 100,000 people live. No where near the luas stops. Swords population is alot denser with baisically all of it’s population inside a 20 minute walk radius.

http://beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=75472

Swords has a population density of 10.86 per hectare or 37,762 in an area of 3,476 hectares; in contrast Tallaght has areas such as Jobstown at a density of 48.80 per hectare. Compare that to Merchants Quay B at a density of 169.61 and you start to get a flavour of the density required to justify underground rail lines.

@cgcsb wrote:

You say the villiage population is only 2,514 people. Well that’s alot considering only the apartments around main street are counted. If you consider the red line terminus beside the Square shopping centre, that has a population of 0, because it’s a shopping centre . By the way, 33,998 people in Swords? if you count the near by Kinsealy area(10 mins walk from the proposed Metro Stop on the Swords By-pass) your looking at more than 43,000 people that can practically access the metro. Unlike the people who live in Tallaght and yet are isolated from the red line

A population of 43,000 doesn’t exist according to the census and if it did if simply wouldn’t justify a €4bn capital spend; Swords might theoretically provide a working population of 20,000 of which 40% might use public transport or total top estimate of 8,000 rail based commuters per day but bear in mind that half of those people probably already use the Dart from Malahide.

To justify Metro North you would need 8 individual stations each capable of generating 10m passengers per year. this route doesn’t provide it because it goes through the wrong areas..

@PVC King wrote:

My point on DCU was not that they live in formal student accomodation it is that they move in together in houses in low rent high convenience areas. Unlike UCD or TCD there are very limited competing land uses to DCU. Why would anyone in their right mind studying at DCU not live locally and walk or cycle to college? If you live at home you get free accomodation and get fed so you can easily put up with the bus!

On TCD I can only speak from anecdotal evidence from the mostly alumni and teaching staff that I have met and none of them lived on the Metro North alignment north of the Canal; the point I continue to make is that once you go past Drumcoundra there is no population density worth talking about; but in Drumcoundra you have a direct line to Pearse station and if you live any closer to the CC you have no excuse not to walk.

Oh dear. there are no population densities north of Drumcondra worth mentioning? really? funny that cos last time I checked the biggest suburb by population in Dublin (NOT TALLAGHT! contrary to popular cultchie cliche thinking) is Coolock which is very much North of Drumcondra. not to mention the 22,000 people of Ballymun and the 38,000 people of Artane

@PVC King wrote:

That this section of the Luas is pretty much empty; just because you build a line does not mean that it will be used. The densities around Drimnagh are not far off the densities for much of Metro North. If the middle section of the Red Line were taken as a stand alone project it would never have been built; the economics in this case work out because the entire line cost €375m if it had cost €4bn there is no margin for error for poor route selection.

Ok so these areas just so happened to be in between tallaght and heuston and they got a luas service out of it. Good for them. The area between Ballymun and the airport and between the airport and Swords are fairly empty also but they just so happen to be on the way.

@PVC King wrote:

http://beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=75472

Swords has a population density of 10.86 per hectare or 37,762 in an area of 3,476 hectares; in contrast Tallaght has areas such as Jobstown at a density of 48.80 per hectare. Compare that to Merchants Quay B at a density of 169.61 and you start to get a flavour of the density required to justify underground rail lines.

A population of 43,000 doesn’t exist according to the census and if it did if simply wouldn’t justify a €4bn capital spend; Swords might theoretically provide a working population of 20,000 of which 40% might use public transport or total top estimate of 8,000 rail based commuters per day but bear in mind that half of those people probably already use the Dart from Malahide.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swords,_Dublin#Population

If the area of Kinsealy is counted, It is closer to 43,000, fact!

have you lost tough with reality altogether? Why would someone living in Swords walk a whopping 5 Kilometers to Malahide DART station. Do you really think half of them walk that far? evidence? You don’t have any local knowledge of the places you are talking about. You’re just saying, “shur dem dubs have enough transhport!! luashh for Nort Leitrim!!!” Also it’s not just the working population that’ll use the metro regularly

@PVC King wrote:

To justify Metro North you would need 8 individual stations each capable of generating 10m passengers per year. this route doesn’t provide it because it goes through the wrong areas..

There are more than 8 stations so they can share smaller amounts of that burden. It’ll be operational for over 100 years. Plenty of time to pay for itself. What areas do you propose it travel through?

@cgcsb wrote:

Oh dear. there are no population densities north of Drumcondra worth mentioning? really? funny that cos last time I checked the biggest suburb by population in Dublin (NOT TALLAGHT! contrary to popular cultchie cliche thinking) is Coolock which is very much North of Drumcondra. not to mention the 22,000 people of Ballymun and the 38,000 people of Artane

As previously stated Drumcoundra is already served by its own direct service to Pearse station and beyond. Artane is served by a QBC.

Ballymun actually has a population of 19,517 over a 364 hecatre area or a density of 53.62 or about 10% denser than that sprawling West Dublin suburb of Jobstown you highlighted. I have no fixation with Tallaght at all but looking at the census Coolock is not actually listed as an area so how you came to your conclusion is quite Metro-esque in its reliability.

@cgcsb wrote:

Ok so these areas just so happened to be in between tallaght and heuston and they got a luas service out of it. Good for them. The area between Ballymun and the airport and between the airport and Swords are fairly empty also but they just so happen to be on the way.

The point is that there is no justification in financial terms to send the line on the way; not one of your so called population drivers of Ballymun or Swords has stacked up; why would you want to send a €4bn metro line on the way to undeveloped or under-developed land. €4bn …. €4bn …. €4bn not €375m

@cgcsb wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swords,_Dublin#Population

If the area of Kinsealy is counted, It is closer to 43,000, fact!

have you lost tough with reality altogether? Why would someone living in Swords walk a whopping 5 Kilometers to Malahide DART station. Do you really think half of them walk that far? evidence? You don’t have any local knowledge of the places you are talking about. You’re just saying, “shur dem dubs have enough transhport!! luashh for Nort Leitrim!!!” Also it’s not just the working population that’ll use the metro regularly

Kinsealy is clearly considered to be in the Malahide hinterland, produce one person from Kinsealy who ever claimed to live in Swords. You don’t live in Swords unless you have a car plain and simple it is as dispersed a housing pattern as you can get in terms of estate development. 16 to the acre gives a drive way and typical patterns involve one driving the other to the station and then driving to work. I considered Moon River in Carrick yesterday as it was good friday but no I’m not from Leitrim I’m sitting in a six storey building 100m from an underground line where trains run every 2-3 minutes and it is standing room only 80% of the time.

@cgcsb wrote:

There are more than 8 stations so they can share smaller amounts of that burden. It’ll be operational for over 100 years. Plenty of time to pay for itself. What areas do you propose it travel through?

Each statrion contributes 3m pasengers and you get 24m passengers you need minimum 60-70m passengers to justify that level of expenditure. If it will last 100 years build the right system and at the right time. MN fails on both counts.

@PVC King wrote:

As previously stated Drumcoundra is already served by its own direct service to Pearse station and beyond. Artane is served by a QBC.

Ballymun actually has a population of 19,517 over a 364 hecatre area or a density of 53.62 or about 10% denser than that sprawling West Dublin suburb of Jobstown you highlighted. I have no fixation with Tallaght at all but looking at the census Coolock is not actually listed as an area so how you came to your conclusion is quite Metro-esque in its reliability.

“Ballymun had a population of 22,109 at the 2006 Census.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballymun

No Coolock is probably not listed as an area because it’s borders are not clearly defined. But local knowledge can tell you things that a census won’t.
Here’s two articles that refer to the size of Coolock in the first paragraph:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobstown

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coolock

@PVC King wrote:

The point is that there is no justification in financial terms to send the line on the way; not one of your so called population drivers of Ballymun or Swords has stacked up; why would you want to send a €4bn metro line on the way to undeveloped or under-developed land. €4bn …. €4bn …. €4bn not €375m

Kinsealy is clearly considered to be in the Malahide hinterland, produce one person from Kinsealy who ever claimed to live in Swords. You don’t live in Swords unless you have a car plain and simple it is as dispersed a housing pattern as you can get in terms of estate development.

Yes for official purposes(ie garda stations, cso etc) it is considered to be in Malahide despite the fact that it is physically closer to Swords. My Partner is from Kinsealy actually. Who by the way would have to walk 40 mins to Malahide or 10 mins to Swords. He also doesn’t own a car. Again local knowledge can tell you things that you can’t read on the internet from thousands of miles away.

You’re going to feel like a bit of a tool when it’s finished

@cgcsb wrote:

“Ballymun had a population of 22,109 at the 2006 Census.”
Here’s two articles that refer to the size of Coolock in the first paragraph:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobstown

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coolock

You are desperate if you think Wikipedia is a more reliable source of information than the actual census. http://beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/Tabl…ReportId=75472

Any fool can post on Wiki but few take it as reliable. Coolock is served by a QBC so is provided for.

@cgcsb wrote:

Yes for official purposes(ie garda stations, cso etc) it is considered to be in Malahide despite the fact that it is physically closer to Swords. My Partner is from Kinsealy actually.

Kinsealy is a very dispersed townland it may have a quoted population of 5,598 but it stretches over an area of 1,098 hectares or about 115% the size of the Phoenix park which is adjoined by 2 seperate rail lines and multiple train stations. Rus en Urbe now gets metro, Jackie Healy Rae will be looking for one for Kenmare at this rate.

@cgcsb wrote:

Who by the way would have to walk 40 mins to Malahide or 10 mins to Swords. He also doesn’t own a car. Again local knowledge can tell you things that you can’t read on the internet from thousands of miles away.

You’re going to feel like a bit of a tool when it’s finished

Well if he doesn’t own a car he needs to take a bus or move somewhere where there is a rail link; the taxpayer does not have a duty to provide subsidies of €8 per train ticket to build an underground that doesn’t stack up.

@missarchi wrote:

http://www.rpa.ie/PublishingImages/Metro%20North/MN%20RO%20OH%203D%20Flash%20Movies%20080409/Metro_North_Final_Animation.swf

I notice in the video that the journey time between Stephen’s Green and O’Connell st is 15 seconds lol. A bit like Space Mountain in Disney Land Paris

@cgcsb wrote:

I notice in the video that the journey time between Stephen’s Green and O’Connell st is 15 seconds lol. A bit like Space Mountain in Disney Land Paris

The passenger loadings in the video look very light, is that based on the actual usage expected?

You would wonder if there are only 5 people getting on at O’Connell St how many will use Fosterstown that wonderful fringe megalopolis http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.40835,-9.93906|7|4&bd=useful_information&hloc=IE|fosterstown That is not even recorded on Multimap

Belinstown that has a main street with no side streets

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.50167,-6.27361|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.50167:-6.27361:17|belinstown|Belinstown%20House,%20County%20Dublin

Dardistown another thriving spot

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.41667,-6.23833|15|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.41667:-6.23833:14|dardistown|Dardistown,%20County%20Dublin

Lissenhall that only comes up for a one off house in Tipperary

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=52.83556,-8.23889|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:52.83556:-8.23889:17|lissenhall|Lissenhall%20House%20(Lissenhall),%20County%20Tipperary

Estuary which pops up in the middle of Malahide less than 10 minutes walk from a Dart Station

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.45,-6.16667|14|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.45:-6.16667:17|Estuary|Malahide%20Inlet,%20Ireland%20(general)

@PVC King wrote:

The passenger loadings in the video look very light, is that based on the actual usage expected?

You would wonder if there are only 5 people getting on at O’Connell St how many will use Fosterstown that wonderful fringe megalopolis http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.40835,-9.93906|7|4&bd=useful_information&hloc=IE|fosterstown That is not even recorded on Multimap

Belinstown that has a main street with no side streets

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.50167,-6.27361|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.50167:-6.27361:17|belinstown|Belinstown%20House,%20County%20Dublin

Dardistown another thriving spot

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.41667,-6.23833|15|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.41667:-6.23833:14|dardistown|Dardistown,%20County%20Dublin

Lissenhall that only comes up for a one off house in Tipperary

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=52.83556,-8.23889|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:52.83556:-8.23889:17|lissenhall|Lissenhall%20House%20(Lissenhall),%20County%20Tipperary

Estuary which pops up in the middle of Malahide less than 10 minutes walk from a Dart Station

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.45,-6.16667|14|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.45:-6.16667:17|Estuary|Malahide%20Inlet,%20Ireland%20(general)

Estuary less than 10 min walk to Malahide DART station?

have you ever been in Dublin in your life?

25 mins walk at a fast pace.

my good man, you’re a born fool.

@marmajam wrote:

Estuary less than 10 min walk to Malahide DART station?

have you ever been in Dublin in your life?

25 mins walk at a fast pace.

my good man, your a born fool.

If you type the Name Estuary into the multimap search function you get a red circle that is some 550m from Malahide Dart Station. Estuary Road is some 1100m from Malahide Dart Station, given that average walking speed is 4 miles per hour or 6kms per hour it would traffic permitting 10 minutes and 30 seconds to reeach Estuary Road. Whilst not ideal density it is reasonably close to an existing transport link and the point I was making is that Estuary as a viable settlement only exists with proximity to Malahide. Unlike the Estuary portion towards Swords which Bertie Ahern was quoted in his infamous Swans and Snails remark. You do realise the full name is Broadmeadow Estuary and that it is heavily proptected under the wildlife acts i.e. undevelopable.

Sadly Gartan Drive is about as much as you’d get at this location

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.4642,-6.20648|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.4642:-6.20647:17|Gartan%20Court|GARTAN%20COURT,%20DUBLIN

Are you really trying to tell me that the above or any of the above are viable locations to develop a €4bn transport network on the basis of being the major passenger providers?

You should learn to think before your inability to hold a civilised conversation gets the better of you again.

What daily ridership figures would you give from each of the above locations?

Didn’t expect an answer it required thought.

@PVC King wrote:

If you type the Name Estuary into the multimap search function you get a red circle that is some 550m from Malahide Dart Station. Estuary Road is some 1100m from Malahide Dart Station, given that average walking speed is 4 miles per hour or 6kms per hour it would traffic permitting 10 minutes and 30 seconds to reeach Estuary Road. Whilst not ideal density it is reasonably close to an existing transport link and the point I was making is that Estuary as a viable settlement only exists with proximity to Malahide. Unlike the Estuary portion towards Swords which Bertie Ahern was quoted in his infamous Swans and Snails remark. You do realise the full name is Broadmeadow Estuary and that it is heavily proptected under the wildlife acts i.e. undevelopable.

Sadly Gartan Drive is about as much as you’d get at this location

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.4642,-6.20648|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.4642:-6.20647:17|Gartan%20Court|GARTAN%20COURT,%20DUBLIN

Are you really trying to tell me that the above or any of the above are viable locations to develop a €4bn transport network on the basis of being the major passenger providers?

You should learn to think before your inability to hold a civilised conversation gets the better of you again.

What daily ridership figures would you give from each of the above locations?

Didn’t expect an answer it required thought.

this tract of guff illustrates nicely your naive pretentions.

I have family members living in this location. I know it like the back of my hand.

none other then the committed trekker would consider walking from ‘estuary’ to Malahide DART station.

you see sonny, the ‘estuary’ metro station is not close to Estuary Rd. It is actually located by the old Swords bypass. The ‘estuary’ area itself extends all the way from the east coast at Malahide westwards to Swords town environs itself.

30 yrs ago, Swords was a quiet backwater. a sort of Leitrim-on-sea.
The exponential growth over recent yrs has been incredible.
The population of Swords is expected to be around 100,000 within 10 yrs.
Dublin airport has been the main engine of growth.
In 20yrs this area wil be a huge metropolis.
A la Croyden.

One of the impressions that exudes from the slow polemical car crash that your thinking represents, the logic being laughably disjointed in every key facet, is that it is not your own original thinking.
The non sequiturs, the distortions……the inevitable intellectual refuge of a poorly thought out argument.

Hilariously, it would be a bonus if the DART was as close to MN as you dream it to be in estate-agentistan.

@PVC King wrote:

If you type the Name Estuary into the multimap search function you get a red circle that is some 550m from Malahide Dart Station. Estuary Road is some 1100m from Malahide Dart Station, given that average walking speed is 4 miles per hour or 6kms per hour it would traffic permitting 10 minutes and 30 seconds to reeach Estuary Road. Whilst not ideal density it is reasonably close to an existing transport link and the point I was making is that Estuary as a viable settlement only exists with proximity to Malahide. Unlike the Estuary portion towards Swords which Bertie Ahern was quoted in his infamous Swans and Snails remark. You do realise the full name is Broadmeadow Estuary and that it is heavily proptected under the wildlife acts i.e. undevelopable.

Sadly Gartan Drive is about as much as you’d get at this location

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=fosterstown&countryCode=IE#map=53.4642,-6.20648|17|4&bd=useful_information&loc=IE:53.4642:-6.20647:17|Gartan%20Court|GARTAN%20COURT,%20DUBLIN

Are you really trying to tell me that the above or any of the above are viable locations to develop a €4bn transport network on the basis of being the major passenger providers?

You should learn to think before your inability to hold a civilised conversation gets the better of you again.

What daily ridership figures would you give from each of the above locations?

Didn’t expect an answer it required thought.

It’s a good thing that Estuary (Which doesn’t actually refer to the Broadmeadows estuary, it is the name of a roundabout on the old bypass) and Seatown stops won’t actually be built – they are possible future stops. And the Metro through Swords is being built to the same standard as the Luas from Sandyford to Cherrywood, it will run along the median of the old Swords bypass, with overpasses on the roundabouts. It is a very small part of the cost of the overall metro. And Bellinstown is a park and ride for a motorway carrying 80,000 commuters into Dublin each way.
As someone who knows Malahide and Swords well, you would want to be a very quick walker to make it from Malahide DART station to the planned Metro route in less than 30 minutes. It would take a good bit more if you actually wanted to walk to a station.

@Fergal wrote:

It’s a good thing that Estuary (Which doesn’t actually refer to the Broadmeadows estuary, it is the name of a roundabout on the old bypass) and Seatown stops won’t actually be built – they are possible future stops. And the Metro through Swords is being built to the same standard as the Luas from Sandyford to Cherrywood, it will run along the median of the old Swords bypass, with overpasses on the roundabouts. It is a very small part of the cost of the overall metro. And Bellinstown is a park and ride for a motorway carrying 80,000 commuters into Dublin each way.
As someone who knows Malahide and Swords well, you would want to be a very quick walker to make it from Malahide DART station to the planned Metro route in less than 30 minutes. It would take a good bit more if you actually wanted to walk to a station.

you’re likely right. It’s so far I’ve never actually walked it – only drove it.
It is typical of PVC’s points. For someone so sure of his argument he gets numerous basic facts completely wrong.

@Fergal wrote:

It’s a good thing that Estuary (Which doesn’t actually refer to the Broadmeadows estuary, it is the name of a roundabout on the old bypass) and Seatown stops won’t actually be built – they are possible future stops. And the Metro through Swords is being built to the same standard as the Luas from Sandyford to Cherrywood, it will run along the median of the old Swords bypass, with overpasses on the roundabouts. It is a very small part of the cost of the overall metro. And Bellinstown is a park and ride for a motorway carrying 80,000 commuters into Dublin each way.
As someone who knows Malahide and Swords well, you would want to be a very quick walker to make it from Malahide DART station to the planned Metro route in less than 30 minutes. It would take a good bit more if you actually wanted to walk to a station.

The point made was very simple the passenger catchment analysis is totally flawed on the metro; whether it is a roundabout named after an Estuary and with all the land to its East undevelopable based on both no-one willing to live right beside a motorway or based on the land further east again being protected habitat and again totally unsuitable for development it simply proves it is not a suitable location for a station. The premise of build it and they will come simply doesn’t stack up.

The park and ride at Bellinstown could be built anywhere and if the design and parking tarriffs were attractive then the same commuters are just as likely to chose commuter rail linked to say Donabate station. The second error in your assumption on M1 traffic is the proportion that go to the City Centre

Compare Turnapin North of the M50 with Daily volume of 96,000 – 110,000 i.e. the section of the M1 where you have 2 options M50 or M1 South

http://www.nra.ie/NetworkManagement/TrafficCounts/TrafficCounterData/html/M01-20M.htm

Therefore if one deducts the M50 figures just West of the Airport which has a traffic flow of 70,000 – 80,000

http://www.nra.ie/NetworkManagement/TrafficCounts/TrafficCounterData/html/M50-23.htm

This gives a maximum traffic flow to Dublin City Centre of c30,000 of which at least 3,000 are HGV’s escaping the DCC ban.

Base line whilst Swords may deserve a Dart spur spun off the Northern line north of the Broadmeadow Estuary embankment reversing south through Lissenhall Motorway Junction it certainly doesn’t justify a €4bn metro and of the 27,000 cars that might go to the City Centre no doubt they would prefer a park and ride service on the commuter line at a recession level price and within 2 years than waiting for a project that is most uunlikely to ever be built on so many grounds.

Marmajam – I’m shocked you aren’t still under that rock you no doubt crawled under last night.

I think you’re missing the point there really. The really expensive part of the Metro is the tunnel from the green to Ballymun, and the tunnel under the airport.
The actual part through Swords is the same cost, and standard as a Luas line.

If you want to serve the airport by an extension of the DART, you are talking roughly a billion for a tunnel under the airport, especially as DART tunnels would need to be significantly larger than metro ones. This would pay for the airport underground stop, right of way acquisition form Grange road to roughly the M50, and the tunnel. Extending it to Swords would also be expensive, as the median of the bypass is not suitable for long heavy rail vehicles, due to the steep gradients and sharp turns, that a shorter, lighter, metro vehicle would be able to handle. This would mean that another tunnel, or visually destructive elevated structure would be needed to bring the DART to Swords. At this stage, you are rapidly approaching the length of tunnelling needed for the Metro.
Also, if the DART was sent to the airport, it would necessitate a severe reduction in already oversubscribed DARTs and commuter trains from the Northern line. If one were to go the airport DART option, it would be necessary to build an extra pair of tracks from Connolly to Grange road, to accommodate commuter and intercity traffic. If you look at the current DART line, it’s easy to see that this would require every station on the line to be reconstructed, and a very large amount of property acquisition which would cost mucho dinero.

And even though we are at the same order of magnitude of the costs of the metro, the airport DART option completely misses the main benefit of the Metro – a fast north-south rail backbone through very centre of the cities most important artery.
In the future, light rail from north and south can feed into the same tunnel, the Luas green line, Luas to Harolds Cross, Metro North, Luas via Broadstone to Finglas, the speculative Metro from Beechwood to Tallaght, and the line to the Airport can all use the same high capacity backbone that Metro North can provide. Metro North can act as in the same role as, say, the Boston T green line – a high capacity central subway, with light rail lines in the suburbs. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/eb/MBTA_Green_Line_route_diagram.png
The full benefits of Metro North is that it can form the backbone of a system that is easily expandible in the future, at moderate cost. Dublin probably does not need a Metro everywhere, but one high capacity city – airport line can support numerous spurs.

This is a setup that has worked very well for countless cities, Boston and Philadelphia as US examples, but also very popular in Germany, Cologne being a good example of a city Dublin’s size. It has worked for cities as small as Mannheim (350,000) and as large as Frankfurt (urban population of 2.28 million).

so we know 2 architects out of 8?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0414/1224244629058.html

Tuesday, April 14, 2009
State must back metro financing, says bidder
The Railway Procurement Agency has refused to divulge any estimated cost for the Metro North project.The Railway Procurement Agency has refused to divulge any estimated cost for the Metro North project.
In this section »

FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor

THE GOVERNMENT would have to underwrite the financing risks associated with the public-private partnership (PPP) project for Metro North if it is to be built, according to one of the consortiums bidding for the contract.

Stephane Kofman, who heads the specialist investment division of HSBC, told a lunch meeting in Dublin organised by the Ireland-France Chamber of Commerce that equity had become “very scarce” as a result of the recession.

The British government had set up a co-financing agency to underwrite private finance initiatives (PFIs) for public infrastructure projects in order to ensure that it had “solid partners” at a time when the volume of PFIs is in decline.

Mr Kofman said HSBC had invested €10 billion in PPP projects since 2001 and it was now a partner with Alstom, the French tramway builder, and SIAC in bidding for the Metro North contract, for which competition was “very fierce”.

Didier Traube, concessions director of Alstom, said the recession had meant there were now fewer lenders in the market – just seven to 10, compared to between 30 and 40 offering loans just two years ago. Lenders had also become “more risk averse”.

Consequently, project debt was now more expensive – “by a factor of two or three”. This meant that there would have to be “guarantees from the public side” to underwrite the financing or refinancing risks, according to Mr Traube.

Mr Kofman conceded that there was an “ideological reluctance” to accept PPPs because they were seen as more expensive, as privatisation in disguise, offering reduced levels of service and with the State awarding “secret” tenders.

“The PPP model faces intense scrutiny, but continues to spread,” he said. The main advantage was that it “spread costs over life of the asset”, although it was “unlikely to offer a rapid remedy” as an economic stimulus because of long lead times.

Without referring to the secrecy surrounding Metro North, for which the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) has refused to divulge any estimated cost, he said PPP projects should be “implemented in a very transparent procurement process”.

One of the PPP projects in which HSBC is involved is the new high-speed rail link between Belgium and the Netherlands. Alstom, which built the Luas trams for Dublin, is currently delivering a single-line tramway in the northern French city of Reims.

This was also a PPP contract for design, construction, operation and maintenance of the new tramway, as well as all bus services in the Reims metropolitan area for a 35-year period – 10 years longer than the term quoted for Metro North by the RPA.

The €413 million project, due for completion in 2011, is receiving a 40 per cent public subsidy, with 50 per cent provided by bank debt and the rest by the project’s shareholders, including Alstom, French construction giant Bouygues and a number of banks.

Mr Traube said Reims Metropole, the public client, is covering part of the risk, including interest rate changes. The main advantage of controlling the buses is that it “provides revenue during construction as well as better control of tramline patronage”.

In Dublin, Luas and bus services operate entirely independently and are run by different agencies – Veolia, the French company that won the contract to operate Luas, and Dublin Bus, which is planning a 10 per cent cut in services to reduce its growing deficit.

In Reims, as in Bordeaux, bus services are being reorganised to “feed” passengers to the 11km tramway after it opens in two years’ time. Mr Traube said this will lead to a 40 per cent increase in public transport patronage in the metropolitan area.

Bidding for metro: four consortiums in the mix

DUBLIN EXPRESS Link, one of the four consortiums bidding for the Metro North contract, claims it is “uniquely placed” to deliver the 18km line linking Swords with St Stephen’s Green because of its “combination of experience, cohesion and scale”.

A brochure accompanying its detailed bid, which was among those submitted to the Railway Procurement Agency, notes that Alstom supplied and still maintains the Luas trams.

The Dublin Express Link consortium is led by Bouygues, working in a joint venture with Spanish contractor Acciona. Their experience includes the Sydney, Barcelona and Cairo metros and the Meteor line in Paris.

Also involved is Siac, one of Ireland’s largest civil engineering contractors. “Totally familiar with Dublin’s road and rail infrastructure, Siac will ensure that our approach is comprehensively planned and delivered at a local level, using local resources”, it says.

Alstom would build the “light metro vehicles” for the line, more than half of which would be installed underground. It would also provide the power and distribution, signalling, control and communications, as well as maintaining the system for the 25-year contract period.

Dublin Express Link’s principal architects are London-based Grimshaws, who would “focus on aesthetics, accessibility, ease of movement and the creation of signature designs” for the Metro North stations in association with Dublin-based architects RKD.

The line would be operated by Keolis, which manages integrated transport systems in the French cities of Lyon and Lille, while the financial investors in Dublin Express Link are HSBC and Meridiam, who are also involved in funding the Limerick Tunnel PPP project.

FRANK McDONALD

@PVC King wrote:

The point made was very simple the passenger catchment analysis is totally flawed on the metro; whether it is a roundabout named after an Estuary and with all the land to its East undevelopable based on both no-one willing to live right beside a motorway or based on the land further east again being protected habitat and again totally unsuitable for development it simply proves it is not a suitable location for a station. The premise of build it and they will come simply doesn’t stack up.

The park and ride at Bellinstown could be built anywhere and if the design and parking tarriffs were attractive then the same commuters are just as likely to chose commuter rail linked to say Donabate station. The second error in your assumption on M1 traffic is the proportion that go to the City Centre

Compare Turnapin North of the M50 with Daily volume of 96,000 – 110,000 i.e. the section of the M1 where you have 2 options M50 or M1 South

http://www.nra.ie/NetworkManagement/TrafficCounts/TrafficCounterData/html/M01-20M.htm

Therefore if one deducts the M50 figures just West of the Airport which has a traffic flow of 70,000 – 80,000

http://www.nra.ie/NetworkManagement/TrafficCounts/TrafficCounterData/html/M50-23.htm

This gives a maximum traffic flow to Dublin City Centre of c30,000 of which at least 3,000 are HGV’s escaping the DCC ban.

Base line whilst Swords may deserve a Dart spur spun off the Northern line north of the Broadmeadow Estuary embankment reversing south through Lissenhall Motorway Junction it certainly doesn’t justify a €4bn metro and of the 27,000 cars that might go to the City Centre no doubt they would prefer a park and ride service on the commuter line at a recession level price and within 2 years than waiting for a project that is most uunlikely to ever be built on so many grounds.

Marmajam – I’m shocked you aren’t still under that rock you no doubt crawled under last night.

there’s no M1 South of ‘Turnapin’

more bluffing

@marmajam wrote:

there’s no M1 South of ‘Turnapin’

more bluffing

St Thomas the patron saint of white elephants has spoken!!

Are you really saying that an NRA press release driven strategy of renaming the most southern portion of the Dublin -Belfast motorway to aid their case on the Eastern Bypass makes the most southern portion of the Dublin – Belfast motorway part of the C Ring? This project makes as little sense as the Eastern Bypass.

Post 9 with no substance from this poster who needs to crawl back under their rock.

@HSBA wrote:

THE GOVERNMENT would have to underwrite the financing risks associated with the public-private partnership (PPP) project for Metro North if it is to be built, according to one of the consortiums bidding for the contract.

Stephane Kofman, who heads the specialist investment division of HSBC, told a lunch meeting in Dublin organised by the Ireland-France Chamber of Commerce that equity had become &#8220]

Loosly translated into unless you increase sovereign debt on this unviable overpriced underground tram set then we are no longer recommending that our clients invest in a clearly unviable project; this on the day that Goldman Sachs unveiled their $136bn war chest!

I think you’re missing the point there really. The really expensive part of the Metro is the tunnel from the green to Ballymun, and the tunnel under the airport.
The actual part through Swords is the same cost, and standard as a Luas line.

Not at all I was merely probing the unproven nature of the demand forecasts the project was claiming in a roundabout way. I take your comment to mean the costs are €3.5bn for a short luas tunnel from St Stephens Green to Ballymun and €500m for a Luas to farmland north of Swords.

An aspect of demand that I note you no longer rely upon are the 80,000 mystery commuters who fellow quango the NRA have clearly proved the majority of which use the M50 and would never have used the proposed metro anyway.

The way this is starting to look under examination is that a passenger subsidy of €10 per passenger looks realistic. I really can’t believe so many so called intelligent people got taken in by such effective PR.

@marmajam wrote:

there’s no M1 South of ‘Turnapin’

more bluffing

St Thomas the patron saint of white elephants has spoken!!

Are you really saying that an NRA press release driven strategy of remaning the most southern portion of the Dublin – Belfast motorway to aid their case on the Eastern Bypass makes the most southern portion of the Dublin – Belfast motorway part of the C Ring? Post 9 with no substance from this poster who needs to crawl back under their rock.

@HSBA wrote:

THE GOVERNMENT would have to underwrite the financing risks associated with the public-private partnership (PPP) project for Metro North if it is to be built, according to one of the consortiums bidding for the contract.

Stephane Kofman, who heads the specialist investment division of HSBC, told a lunch meeting in Dublin organised by the Ireland-France Chamber of Commerce that equity had become &#8220]

Loosly translated into unless you increase sovereign debt on this unviable light rail underground then we are no longer recommending that our clients invest in a clearly unviable project; this on the day that Goldman Sachs unveiled their $136bn war chest!

I think you’re missing the point there really. The really expensive part of the Metro is the tunnel from the green to Ballymun, and the tunnel under the airport.
The actual part through Swords is the same cost, and standard as a Luas line.

Not at all I was merely probing the unproven nature of the demand forecasts the project was claiming in a roundabout way. I take your comment to mean the costs are €3.5bn for a short luas tunnel from St Stephens Green to Ballymun and €500m for a Luas to farmland north of Swords.

An aspect of demand that I note you no longer rely upon are the 80,000 mystery commuters who fellow quango the NRA have clearly proved the majority of which use the M50 and would never have used the proposed metro anyway.

The way this is starting to look under examination is that a passenger subsidy of €10 per passenger looks realistic. I really can’t believe so many so called intelligent people got taken in by such effective PR. Can you outline station by station the annual passenger numbers and fare matrix and annual operating surplus / deficit forecast?

@PVC King wrote:

St Thomas the patron saint of white elephants has spoken!!

Are you really saying that an NRA press release driven strategy of remaning the most southern portion of the Dublin – Belfast motorway to aid their case on the Eastern Bypass makes the most southern portion of the Dublin – Belfast motorway part of the C Ring? Post 9 with no substance from this poster who needs to crawl back under their rock.

Loosly translated into unless you increase sovereign debt on this unviable light rail underground then we are no longer recommending that our clients invest in a clearly unviable project; this on the day that Goldman Sachs unveiled their $136bn war chest!

Not at all I was merely probing the unproven nature of the demand forecasts the project was claiming in a roundabout way. I take your comment to mean the costs are €3.5bn for a short luas tunnel from St Stephens Green to Ballymun and €500m for a Luas to farmland north of Swords.

An aspect of demand that I note you no longer rely upon are the 80,000 mystery commuters who fellow quango the NRA have clearly proved the majority of which use the M50 and would never have used the proposed metro anyway.

The way this is starting to look under examination is that a passenger subsidy of €10 per passenger looks realistic. I really can’t believe so many so called intelligent people got taken in by such effective PR. Can you outline station by station the annual passenger numbers and fare matrix and annual operating surplus / deficit forecast?

hhhhmmmmm

getting incoherent now.

madness really getting a grip 😀

@marmajam wrote:

hhhhmmmmm

getting incoherent now.

madness really getting a grip 😀

As was previously said at least Noel O’Gara had a sense of humour you serve no useful function on this forum….

Post 10 with no point, can’t clarify how it is funded, what its cost is discounted to net present value or how many people would use the network station by station.

Can you even outline station by station the annual passenger numbers or the fare matrix or annual operating surplus / deficit forecast or the average annual interest bill?

@Fergal wrote:

The expensive part is not so much the tunnelling, but the cost of tunnelling plus mining out underground stations. A small mined station costs around €100 million. The Metro will cost €4 billion including the price of the finance, so the actual construction cost will be about €2.5 billion. .

The pre credit crunch cost of finance environment is long gone as risk spreads have ballooned as appetite for risk has evaporated; even assuming a pre-credit crunch return on investment an annualised cost of €200m in interest would accrue on €2.5bn.

Given that demand is likely to be south of 25m passengers given the very poor route selection the project creates a required subvention of €8 per passenger on interest alone before the route even operates. Given that undergrounds don’t make money that would take the annualised subsidy per passenger closer to €10.

@Fergal wrote:

I also fail to see how €10 per passenger is hugely excessive considering that it will be completely paid for 30 years after opening, and in 30 years, €10 will only be worth the equivalent of €2.50 today..

The €10 doesn’t include capital repayment and there is no way inflation will be 3.73% p.a. over the next 30 years; if it is there won’t be an economy left in Ireland. Granted the capital will probably have a net present value in todays terms of say 1.38bn but the costs of servicing the debt in the interim will have been billions in the interim.

@Fergal wrote:

Deducting the M50 figures west of the airport to estimate how many commuters go M1 south – M50 south is pure nonsense maths.

I disagree; a principal plank used to support metro north has been the park and ride argument; why would someone park in the bellinstown park and ride and pay charges when they could park at an equivelent and up to recently free of charge rate at an IE station presumably closer to home. Given the dispersal in employment locations over the past 15 years to places like Blanchardstown, Park West and City West I am clear that a park and ride based north of Swords would deliver very limited passenger numbers as people either don’t work City Centre or prefer driving in and displaying their cars or a park and ride could be built at say Donabate at a fraction of the costs and lead time for delivery.

@Fergal wrote:

Since I do not work for the RPA, I do not have detailed information on their demand calculations. If you really want it, I presume an FOI request would be your best bet..

I appreciate your straight and logical answer. This is fairly basic information that clearly should be in the public domain to back up the business case; its absence is far from encouraging.

@Fergal wrote:

The cost of the metro discounted to present value is likely to be even lower, as the US and UK are now printing money, and there is absolutely no doubt that the ECB is to follow, as Germany is entering into drops in GDP of the scale of Ireland, due to international demand drying up, and Germany having a very frugal domestic market. In 5 – 10 years time, we can all expect lots of inflation, so it’s a good time to invest in capital infrastructure, especially if it can be kept of balance sheet – the whole point of a PPP. If the metro goes ahead (which is a big “if”), I expect Mr Kopfman’s request for the Government to take on the risk of the project be satisfied by an upfront payment of a 1/4 to 1/3 of the capital cost.

Do you know what the biggest bank in the World is by assets? It is RBS who amazingly kept almost 2 Trillion dollars off balance sheet for quite some time. Regulators will allow nothing off balance sheet for a very long time; the expression is I believe disaster myopia.

Similarly the inflation created by loose consumer credit will be carefully kept in check by policy makers for a long period of time as they know what happens when interest cover on homeloans get stretched. The scariest thing about the last year has been the collapse of Alt A mortgages which were considered very prime until interest rates went above 6% based on central banks trying to cure inflation.

Disaster myopia will prevent the ultra-cautious germans from releasing the inflation genie; the debt to value raqtio of the government position should prevent this project from swallowing up valuable funds.

€2.5bn is just too much money for this project based on what it serves. The interconnector and a branch line for Swords would however make sense.

@PVC King wrote:

I disagree; a principal plank used to support metro north has been the park and ride argument; why would someone park in the bellinstown park and ride and pay charges when they could park at an equivelent and up to recently free of charge rate at an IE station presumably closer to home. Given the dispersal in employment locations over the past 15 years to places like Blanchardstown, Park West and City West I am clear that a park and ride based north of Swords would deliver very limited passenger numbers as people either don’t work City Centre or prefer driving in and displaying their cars or a park and ride could be built at say Donabate at a fraction of the costs and lead time for delivery.

The simple reason that a park and ride on the Metro would be attractive, is that every park and ride on the Northern line is already full before 7:30 every morning, and they are not that accessible from the motorway. Metro North will have neither of these problems. The commuter line between Drogheda and Howth Junction is also infrequent at peak times, and only hourly off peak, crowded to crush load, expensive (€9 Balbriggan to Dublin) and not particularly fast – key disadvantages that commuting to the metro park and ride will not have. These problems will have to be sorted, but that will also require huge capital expenditure.

@PVC King wrote:

Similarly the inflation created by loose consumer credit will be carefully kept in check by policy makers for a long period of time as they know what happens when interest cover on homeloans get stretched. The scariest thing about the last year has been the collapse of Alt A mortgages which were considered very prime until interest rates went above 6% based on central banks trying to cure inflation.

Interest rates will clearly be very low until there is a global recovery. However, this will almost certainly happen within the next 10 years, and if it doesn’t, all talk of metros will be the last thing on peoples minds. Currently banks all around the world are hoarding huge quantities of cash out of fear. When a recovery kicks in, this cash will rapidly make it’s way onto world markets, and there will be little central banks can do to stop the resulting massive inflation. In the 1980’s interest rates were in the mid teens, and the financial pumps around the world are being primed for another good go of this.

@PVC King wrote:

As was previously said at least Noel O’Gara had a sense of humour you serve no useful function on this forum….

Post 10 with no point, can’t clarify how it is funded, what its cost is discounted to net present value or how many people would use the network station by station.

Can you even outline station by station the annual passenger numbers or the fare matrix or annual operating surplus / deficit forecast or the average annual interest bill?

the issue here is not really maths which I do in fact understand better than you but you have such a uni-dimensional appreciation of that aspect of this project I have no intention of getting into a debate with you. you are not good at maths and fatally have no insight into that.
as one poster has pointed out even moderate inflation will render the repayments cheap.

and, as has just been pointed out you leap to conclusions about commuter travel with a schoolboy howler analysis of traffic movements.
I can say very confidantly you have never been in the Swords environs in your life, your geographic theories are laughable to those of us who are familiar with this area.
What did you assert the pop. of Swords was? several 1000s? perhaps the town’s original boudary contains a number of this magnitude but as anybody who travels there knows well, today’s Swords has become a huge conurbation and is mushrooming at a phenomenal rate.

the project is very affordable, though even more compelling, we cannot afford not to build it, since the Fingal area will grind to a halt without this rail corridor.
Your suggestion that a spur be built from the northern DART………well, that destroys any credibility you have. That belongs to the 1st-idea-that-comes-into-my-mind class of plans.
And Fergal, it is less than ‘a big if’ than you realise. The main players are absolutely determined that MN will go ahead (and I’m not referring to either the RPA or the Dept of T).
Barring a nuclear war. The opposition are also behind it.

@Fergal wrote:

The simple reason that a park and ride on the Metro would be attractive, is that every park and ride on the Northern line is already full before 7:30 every morning, and they are not that accessible from the motorway. Metro North will have neither of these problems. The commuter line between Drogheda and Howth Junction is also infrequent at peak times, and only hourly off peak, crowded to crush load, expensive (€9 Balbriggan to Dublin) and not particularly fast – key disadvantages that commuting to the metro park and ride will not have. These problems will have to be sorted, but that will also require huge capital expenditure. .

Agreed there is nothing more frustrating than turning up at a full carpark but both Rush & Lusk and Donabate are no more than 2 miles from the M1 building a couple of multi-storey car-parks would add significant capacity. The key constraint to capacity on the Northern line is the loopline section and in particular the increased number of Maynooth trains using it; when Dart was designed Maynooth had a service only from Platform 7 in Connolly. Whilst one likes to see Maynooth commuters get a better service it is from what you are saying having effects. The interconnector will relieve this problem and provide ample capacity on the Northern line.

@Fergal wrote:

Interest rates will clearly be very low until there is a global recovery. However, this will almost certainly happen within the next 10 years, and if it doesn’t, all talk of metros will be the last thing on peoples minds. Currently banks all around the world are hoarding huge quantities of cash out of fear. When a recovery kicks in, this cash will rapidly make it’s way onto world markets, and there will be little central banks can do to stop the resulting massive inflation. In the 1980’s interest rates were in the mid teens, and the financial pumps around the world are being primed for another good go of this.

Agreed we are in a low interest rate and low inflation environment for some time to come and yes banks are hoarding large sums of cash which is slowly being released into credit markets towards the primer end of corporate lending. But ask yourself if you were a senior bank executive who got no bonus last year and has to make sure that he loses no loans this year to get a bonus even a quarter of what they got in 2007 is this the type of project you would lend money to?

The promotor is putting no capital down, has a fiscal position that involves 30% of tax revenues evaporating in a year, bond spreads that are the second highest in the FT sovereign debt table only to Greece. The agency behind it has never delivered a project on timeor on budget and it will heamorage cash operationally for its entire payback period.

As much as I support rail projects in principal this one just doesn’t add up and government investment generally needs to be a lot more careful than it has been in recent years.

I think something that we’re forgetting here is that the main objective of public transport IS public transport…..not to make a profit …..though admittedly that is a bonus..Remember too that the Metro has to last us a hundred years and I don’t think 4 billion is a terrible price to pay for that.A connection is needed for the airport, which is expected to carry 35 million passengers in 2020, and the stop there will probably be the line’s biggest success.

Metro North must first tunnel through a lack of transparency

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0421/1224245071074.html

http://www.transport.ie/deptoft/deptoft.html

and

Metro North has not been designed to accommodate bicycles. The
principal design constraint leading to this decision is the space availability in the
Light Metro Vehicles (LMVs), and safety issues relating to escape in the event of
an emergency and access to underground stops.

Copenhagen Metro

The trains are 39 metres (130 ft) long, 2.65 metres (8 ft 8 in) wide, and weigh 52 tonnes (51 LT; 57 ST). Each train consists of three articulated cars with a total of six automated doors, holding up to 96 seated and 204 standing passengers. There are four large ‘flex areas’ in each train with folding seats providing space for wheelchairs, strollers, and bicycles.

would that be right?

@Fergal wrote:

so it’s a good time to invest in capital infrastructure, especially if it can be kept of balance sheet – the whole point of a PPP.

What do you feel is good about accounting for the capital cost “off the balance sheet”? “Off balance sheet” is what gave us Enron, Tyco, SIVs, and is about as fashionable as bellbottoms in finance and accounting in these times. There are many aspects of the PPP financing which are objectionable but all are insignificant compared to the cost. Based on current yields if you use PPP “off balance sheet” finance, you get less than 2/3s of the infrastructure the government interest payments would pay for if they were used to service government debt. On a project of this scale this is a very serious inefficiency – nearly a billion euro wasted on unnecessary interest payments. I’d rather they just accounted for it normally; there are many good things 1 billion euro could be spent on in the country instead of being swallowed up by a accounting trick employed solely to keep certain government debt hidden.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0424/1224245295433.html

Metro key part of Dublin’s economic future – Ryan

Some interesting stuff most of it is related to the Mater.

http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_airport_swords/build_and_operation_permission/Pages/MetroNorthRailwayOrderOralHearingEvidence.aspx

– Metro North Confirmation of Methodology from David Slattery (password required)
– Metro North Fusilier’s Arch Survey ( levels? dimensions? )
– Metro North Impact of Metro on Property Values Part 1
– Metro North Impact of Metro on Property Values Part 2
– Metro North O’Connell Monument Draft Method Statement David Slattery
– Metro North O’Connell Monument Drawings
– Metro North O’Connell Monument Photographs
– Metro North SD2.6F TBM Break In Out Report Rev A
– Metro North Underwater Intertidal Archaeological Assessment River Liffey etc Part1
– Metro North Working Paper 43 Alternative Depot Location Drawing

the other folder

http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_airport_swords/build_and_operation_permission/Pages/MetroNorthRailwayOrderOralHearingEvidenceGeoffFeatherstonePresentationDrawings.aspx

September I wonder if it will change again?
Any way the deaf people have withdrawn…
and the trees

http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/Metro%20North%20RO%20Oral%20Hearing%20Evidence/MN%20RO%20Oral%20Hearing%20Evidence%20020409/Geoff%20Featherstones%20Presentation%20Drawings/Area%20106/Area%20106%20(DCU%20to%20Mater)%2017.pdf

what exactly is happening in September? that page doesn’t even mention a date except the 2nd of April ’09, it’s just drawings

Chathrach workshop

The board says a decision in September now.
But as you know these dates can change ten times.

college green triangle or buying time? they could do it with shovels 🙂 like in the old days
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0610/1224248536121.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0610/1224248536121.html

so what’s happening? the oral hearing has been suspended for about 6 weeks now. What’s the four one one, as the kids say?

You are talking about the Irish planning board which works at a snail’s pace at the best of times!!!!

Status: Case is due to be decided by 03-09-2009

It might pan out… everyone is on holidays in the next few months and there is a wad of evidence to sort through. You would also think they have to give at least one months notice of there intention to resume otherwise there might be trouble. So that leaves us in August/September. 3 days a week, 3 weeks to get to the 107 then a few more weeks.
Maybe another date change?

INNOVATION AND creativity in engineering will underpin the economy’s recovery and enable Ireland to compete on the global market once again, according to the president of Engineers Ireland.

“Long-term growth in Ireland must be fuelled by innovative companies,” Dr Chris Horn said yesterday. New ideas must be created, tested and proven here, and then brought to the world market, he added.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0623/1224249338796.html

RPA selects two bidders for Metro North project

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0701/1224249837962.html

@missarchi wrote:

RPA selects two bidders for Metro North project

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0701/1224249837962.html

IT can’t resist slipping in the nonsense figure of 5 billion. Invented by tree hugger Frank MacDonald himself 😀

what next? MN first stage of link to new death camps after Lisbon passed?

@marmajam wrote:

IT can’t resist slipping in the nonsense figure of 5 billion. Invented by tree hugger Frank MacDonald himself 😀

what next? MN first stage of link to new death camps after Lisbon passed?

Even before the recession and slump in cost of building materials, it was never €5bn it was 4.6 and now it’s probably more like €3bn and falling

ain’t no sunshine any more…:mad: it’s going to be cold and wet…

marmajam where do I find the figure and from who?

@missarchi wrote:

ain’t no sunshine any more…:mad: it’s going to be cold and wet…

marmajam where do I find the figure and from who?

it’s not easily available, I doubt anybody in the RPA will tell you, but for good reason I believe the best tenders were below 2 billion.

which is realistic.

what MacDonald did was extrapolate a guestimate bid of 3 billion into the potential to be paid over 25 years – around 5 billion.

@marmajam wrote:

it’s not easily available, I doubt anybody in the RPA will tell you, but for good reason I believe the best tenders were below 2 billion.

which is realistic.

So the final cost will be below €2bn and the successful tender consortium will run it free and of course the finance will be free. Add €50m investment return and you have an annual service bill of €200m

So lets take your position as correct.

What does the first annual or quarterly payment include from the items below

1. Capital
2. Interest €100m
3. Profit €50m
4. Operating Loss €50m
5. Operating profit / rtn €50m

@marmajam wrote:

what MacDonald did was extrapolate a guestimate bid of 3 billion into the potential to be paid over 25 years – around 5 billion.

McDonald was absolutely spot on to include the total actually payable even if the capital cost comes in at €2bn there will be an annual rate of interest to be paid to stop the sum accumulating, the consortium will want their profit margin not to mention the operating contract which will be accompanied by another round of profit. Even if you assume that the consortium settles for no return Government bond rates are excess 5.35% which gives a pure finance cost exceeding €100m

Add to that how much it will lose operationally say another €50m a year. It simply is not worth the money.

Then look at demand side initiatives to support the metro

€10 additional travel tax
€10 handling fee on both Ryanair and Aer Lingus
Probable increased landing charges to pay for Terminal 2 and second runway

Just allow taxi’s to use the Port Tunnel free, then assess your needs, taking 4 passengers per taxi it would be significantly cheaper for the government to offer free taxi’s than build this project.

This is the last ideological PPP project still standing on its fundamentally flawed basis, restore some credibility open the tunnel to taxi’s for a 20 minute Journey time to O’Connel Bridge at no cost

I don’t know how anyone can claim to know the actual costs with so many future variables and I highly doubt they will ever publish all the details quarterly.
The system here was privatised and there was still performance bonuses deductions subvention ect. One of the consortia had to be bailed out and then the whole thing becomes a football. One blaming the other, government buying trains here and there.
And you would have to be IBM to check all the figures. And if the consortia goes broke what happens its closed… (fat chance) And the department has confidentiality.

I do hope they build it well…

Ha ha still sulking over having your hilarious schoolboy howlers shown up PVC Queen?
getting a bit desperate jumping into bed with mad Frankie.

Look, you’re an estate agent, if somebody buys a house from you – do you advertise the price as the full repayment cost over 30 years?

I thought not.

I wouldn’t buy a garden shed from somebody who mangles numbers the way you do.

I wonder what on earth you really do? Nothing too responsible I sincerely hope.

As you know all the finance questions are answered in previous posts.

Or perhaps you have merged your brane into a temporal singularity and consider that those posts don’t actually exist?

@marmajam wrote:

Ha ha still sulking over having your hilarious schoolboy howlers shown up PVC Queen?
getting a bit desperate jumping into bed with mad Frankie.

Look, you’re an estate agent, if somebody buys a house from you – do you advertise the price as the full repayment cost over 30 years?

I thought not.

I wouldn’t buy a garden shed from somebody who mangles numbers the way you do.

I wonder what on earth you really do? Nothing too responsible I sincerely hope.

As you know all the finance questions are answered in previous posts.

Or perhaps you have merged your brane into a temporal singularity and consider that those posts don’t actually exist?

First of all – no-one wants to read all your crap insults and bizarre ramblings so don’t bother posting unless you’ve something decent to say.

Second of all. To answer your estate agent analogy, the fact is the government isn’t the one selling the house, they’re the ones buying. Its a pretty foolish buyer who doesn’t do their sums and work out the actual cost of a purchase, including the real costs and determines their ability to finance the debt required.

Ps. its spelt brain.

master reddy how did you get it into your brane that you’re the forum policeman?

your approval or permission not required for posting.

run along sonny.

@reddy wrote:

First of all – no-one wants to read all your crap insults and bizarre ramblings so don’t bother posting unless you’ve something decent to say.

Second of all. To answer your estate agent analogy, the fact is the government isn’t the one selling the house, they’re the ones buying. Its a pretty foolish buyer who doesn’t do their sums and work out the actual cost of a purchase, including the real costs and determines their ability to finance the debt required.

Ps. its spelt brain.

PS. It’s spelled “it’s”.

@reddy wrote:

Second of all. To answer your estate agent analogy, the fact is the government isn’t the one selling the house, they’re the ones buying. Its a pretty foolish buyer who doesn’t do their sums and work out the actual cost of a purchase, including the real costs and determines their ability to finance the debt required.

Agreed but I wouldn’t stoop to the estate agent level i’d look at commercial property structures; this is like buying a large building that is empty and then breaking it down into smaller units called retailers and passengers. The costs are therefore buying the building and running the services such as trains, lighting, cleaning and ticketing. So just like a linear shopping centre you have a rent as the govenment can’t afford to buy it with cash, they will have to turn to the bond markets who clearly feel they have borrowed too much already, then you have insurance and you have a charge for services.

@reddy wrote:

First of all – no-one wants to read all your crap insults and bizarre ramblings so don’t bother posting unless you’ve something decent to say. Ps. its spelt brain..

Very succinctly put. I’d have expected Paul to ban him before now but he is obviously preoccupied with his cutting and pasting project. Until he is banned I will put the questions again.

1. On completion will the Government position support a straight puchase out of a single fiscal year?

2. Given that point 1 is clearly not going to happen, what will the rate of finance be in light of all credit rating agencies downgrading sovereign debt http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0702/rating.html quantify the annual servicing cost based on a debt of €2bn and the selected rate. How will another €2bn affect the rate on the rest of the credit mountain

3. Who is going to operate the service and what profit margin or return on investment are they going to receive?

4. What will the annual subvention be to cover operational losses?

5. What will the govenment do if an operator walks away as happened with the UKs most profitable rail franchise only this week http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6620768.ece

6. What are demand forecasts for Dublin Airport in light of the increased travel tax, imposition of €10 handling fee by the two dominant airlines and likely higher landing charges to pay for Terminal 2 and second runway.

7. Why hasn’t the port tunnel been opened to taxi’s on a free of charge basis to give a quick free solution to the connectivity issue?

The costs are clearly

1. Interest payments north of €105m p.a.
2.Operating loss north of €50m p.a.
3. Franchises profit / depreciation to rolling stock north of €50m

Given that demand at Dublin airport is being wrecked by the government, airlines and DAA who in their right mind would give the go ahead to take on an annual liability exceeding €200m to connect an airport whose stakeholders seem hell bent on destroying their prime asset?

Open the tunnel to taxi’s debt needs to be preserved for projects that pass cost benefit analysis and create sustainable employment

@rumpelstiltskin wrote:

PS. It’s spelled “it’s”.

Touché!

your highness pvcqueen, as has been noted before, you fling numbers around because you have entirely failed to grasp the heart of the matter.
And, very predictably, your numbers themselves always undone with hilarious howlers.

the world is not some sort of property park. on projects like this a much broader perspective is required.
be interesting to see your estate agent analysis of……the space shuttle…………the LHC project………van gogh never selling a painting in his life……..
or not………you’re out of your depth.
from your made up geography about estuary, your odd belief that Swords is some sort of rustic hamlet of 2 souls and a cat, your mangling of traffic data on the M50, your flip flopping on bond data, even though its been pointed out that the money will come from a pensions investment in an infrastructure bond
there must be a term for the condition where inappropriate technical guff is sprayed around to impress.
you remind me of that penniless toff – one of adrian mackinder’s comic characters
of course if you really knew your stuff you wouldn’t be spouting here…..

interest payments less than 100 million
operating profit

its a nobraner

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0703/1224249968402.html

The issue here is the RPA were talking to An Bord Pleanala prior to the planning permission been lodged so whats gone so wrong that the oral hearing is to be delayed by at least 5/6 months due to the additional information being sought by the Bord.It doesn’t look good on Ireland’s record if this is indeed the case,why do we have to talk every major project to death in Ireland the interconnector will end up going the same route.Its no wonder our roads,public transport etc are so far behind most European countries.

Ireland has never dealt with an application like this in it’s history it’s a one off and the most public application they will ever deal with the greatest risk.
The ride for the dart underground should be smoother.
The further information is only delayed by how long it takes to produce the information.
The real delay was from the end of module 1 to now and the submissions to the hearing stage.There is a serious amount of information and 200 submissions. It’s not the only case they have on there cards. Every other case I have been involved with has not been any different in fact I would say more onerous and more detail was required than what is being proposed. They haven’t had to produce 1:5 details or anything of that nature yet.
It’s also highly likely to end up in the high court at some stage.

It’s like the first baby being born… after that you can pop them out!

One reason for delay: http://www.etenders.gov.ie/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=JUL121057

ABP have requested the RPA to have the folliowing examination of an alternative location for the DCU stop. Expressions of interest due by July 13th.

“Prior to submitting the Railway Order application, RPA considered an alternative location for the DCU Stop further south, within Albert College Park. This alternative is described in the Metro North Environmental Impact Statement as Option 4. An Bord Pleanála has now requested an independent examination of the feasibility of the construction of the DCU Stop in the corner of Albert College Park (Option 4 or a variant thereof) and a detailed comparative analysis of such a stop with the preferred option included in the Railway Order application. “

@marmajam wrote:

your highness pvcqueen, as has been noted before, you fling numbers around because you have entirely failed to grasp the heart of the matter.
And, very predictably, your numbers themselves always undone with hilarious howlers.

the world is not some sort of property park. on projects like this a much broader perspective is required.
be interesting to see your estate agent analysis of……the space shuttle…………the LHC project………van gogh never selling a painting in his life……..
or not………you’re out of your depth.

Actually I was in bed when you wrote this like all people with a job; it says a lot about someone to be writing an abusive tirade such as the above at 4am; unless I am mistaken and you are based in a pacific timezone. You have failed to answer 6 of the seven questions put and got the seventh wrong.

@marmajam wrote:

from your made up geography about estuary, your odd belief that Swords is some sort of rustic hamlet of 2 souls and a cat,

The point I made is simple the development density in the area known as Estuary is not sufficient for a high cost rail project; furthermore its location beside a protected nature reserve prevents future development on any meaningful scale. Route selection on the project is poor.

@marmajam wrote:

your mangling of traffic data on the M50,

The majority of traffic from the M1 heading South goes via the M50 that is a fact as born out by NRA traffic count data; there is no reliable evidence that the thousands of people commuting on the M1 corridor would ever use any rail service open to them; in fact they have rejected rail by virtue of ignoring the existing service available. Where is the passenger demand analysis for the project?

@marmajam wrote:

your flip flopping on bond data, even though its been pointed out that the money will come from a pensions investment in an infrastructure bond
there must be a term for the condition where inappropriate technical guff is sprayed around to impress.

The pensions fund was created in a very different era, it no longer exists unless you want to take €2bn away from other budgets; which is it to be health, education, old age pensions, are you really saying any government would commit political suicide in this way. It is simply Government money in good years set aside for the future; what is the current fiscal surplus? More debt = higher taxes

@marmajam wrote:

you remind me of that penniless toff – one of adrian mackinder’s comic characters
of course if you really knew your stuff you wouldn’t be spouting here…..

What don’t I know? The most unpopular government in the history of the state failing to get to grips with public spending, you are talking about a project that didn’t stack up in the boom and the boomier years as being a no brainer; which part is the no brainer blowing the boom, accelerating the boomier, ignoring the bust or adding to the rising debt mountain. Stick to the facts.

@marmajam wrote:

interest payments less than 100 million

Government bond 10 year interest rates 5.57% * €2bn = €111.4m p.a. and these rates are rising; underlying fiscal deficit c€10bn p.a. – no pension fund to pay for it.

@marmajam wrote:

operating profit

The report supporting this is where?

Why isn’t this a two tender process one for construction the other for running it.

Simply because it will not make money and the government will end up putting a large annual subvention into it; this isn’t Luas it is a complex series of underground stations that need to be lit, cleaned, secured and maintained. Not a series of granite platforms where the local authorities and Gardai pick up the service bill.

@marmajam wrote:

its a nobraner

What would be three no brainers are

1. Reverse the new travel tax
2. Ban handling fees on tickets
3. Open the port tunnel free of charge to taxis.

Then see if a reversal in passenger decline can be acheived and what visitors think of a 20 minute journey time to Dublin 1 from the airport.

you’re got 8 points out of 8 wrong.
MN will pay for itself in the early few years, 5 years after reopening the repayments will be peanuts.

even if your numbers were correct they fail to allow for the wider economic value of development attracted to a high quality rail line – as the DART did for Nth/Sth coastline corridor – and a crucial element of a comprehensive public transport system that Dublin cannot afford not to build.

the same flat earth arguments that you offer were made before the DART electrification.

on it’s first week it took more passengers than the previous diesal railcars did in a year IIRC.

the reality is that if you provide high frequency good quality public transport then people will use it.

this truth is universal – we have seen it here with the DART, LUAS and Maynooth services.

there have been 2 CBAs done for MN – every element of it has been analysed comprehensively.
luckily, the key players on this project see it this way and are absolutely determined it will go ahead.
you’ve painted yourself into a corner having laughably concluded that the world had come to an end.
probably since you estate agents were the first lemmings over the finacial cliff – which is probably related to the mangled numbers projections we see now………….
every city of comparable size and significance in Europe has similar transport modes (I think Vienna has 5 metro lines and 3 dart type lines, then there’s Helsinki, Copenhagen, Lisbon, Budapest etc ) – if I was bothered I’d give a longer list
though you in your wisdom have decreed that the Irish public travel less than citizens elsewhere.

among several lies….the point you made about estuary was that passengers there would walk to malahide dart station, unaware that it is a 40 min walk…….
when was the last time you were in the malahide/swords area? not in 15 years if at all. you seem to have no idea of the development of this area.

it doesn’t go unnoticed that you simply make up facts if you need them to make your case.

no doubt if MN was being built and operated for free you’d argue it was still a disaster for reasons x, y and z.

you should have stopped digging when the hole was still only the size of one of your empty housing estates.

a long career is ahead of you explaining why it was such a bad idea.

Are you taking drugs?

Even if the 30m projected passengers materialise which they won’t the total fare revenue at an average ticket price of €3 per ticket would be €90m per year. Given that interest costs alone will exceed €110m it loses money before any running costs are calculated.

Given that passenger numbers are down 15% this year at Dublin Airport will those proposing this process now accept their boom period figures are a fantasy that isn’t coming back anytime in my lifetime.

Where is the revenue going to come from to even wash its face day to day?

upon opening in 2016 the average fare will be at least 4 euro.

and of course fares will increase with inflation (expected by some given the huge stimulus packages) so it will be relatively soon that income will run well ahead of any costs.
the idea that we cannot afford a few million (if it was even needed) for the wider benefits is ridiculous.
this is not a corner shop we’re talking about here.

as has been said by one of the ‘players’ – if we don’t think we can afford a few million by 2016 then we might as well shut up shop now. we are not zimbabwe, we are a region of the the EU and as such……………….

incredibly, you ignore the fact that the pension fund has committed to invest 6 billion in the infrastructure bond at 5%

but………………………dublin airport is only a small element of MN. nevertheless we will no doubt see exponential growth there relatively soon in the 200 year lifetime of a rail line like this.

wait now for more numerical guff and fantasy………

@marmajam wrote:

upon opening in 2016 the average fare will be approx 4 euro.

Perhaps it will but a higher fare will firstly act as a disincentive to use why pay €4 by metro when you can take the bus for €2; combine this with higher energy and labour costs means that taking present tarrifs are the only way assess the project. Were the sampled surveyed to assess demands told the fare structure, how many of these people then working are now unemployed?

@marmajam wrote:

incredibly, you ignore the fact that the pension fund has committed to invest 6 billion in the infrastructure bond at 5%………

The first principal of sovereign wealth investment is to spread risk and acheive a target rate of return, no credible sovereign wealth fund can invest in a project that involves higher risk than government bonds and produces a lower rate of return. The pension fund has a serious credibility issue here, this is what one would expect of an oil rich dictatorship not a once democratically elected government.

@marmajam wrote:

but………………………dublin airport is only a small element of MN. nevertheless we will no doubt see exponential growth there relatively soon in the 200 year lifetime of a rail line like this.

Sorry I forgot Ballymum with its population of 19,517 and Swords with its massive 37,762 people spread over 3,476 hectares the vast bulk of which couldn’t walk to any of the stops proposed. Dublin airport is declining and the rest of the route was assessed on wildly optimistic development assumptions; i.e. 100,000 housing units annually when the reality is about 20% of that number.

If you built a railline from Belmullet to Kilgarvan it might last 200 years but it still wouldn’t stack up. Fair play to the proponents of this scheme the Emperor got a fair bit of the route without anyone noticing all the devices used to keep the reality covered.

Underground in Dublin can only be justified when it links existing elements of the network in areas where plot ratios exceed 3.5 or higher.

you forgot to mention that the trains will never work in the airless tunnells 🙂

Most people interested in the metro project understand the rationale behind it. It is not being built only for the circumstances of today, which themselves warrant it ayway, but it represents the joined up thinking that many criticised was lacking in previous administrations.

Recessions come and go but overall expansion increases exponentially. It is wiser to plan for this than to sit on your hands and wait.
In fact with construction costs down 25% this is the time for big projects like this.
When you look at the patronage of the DART which has the open sea along one side of it’s length it is obvious that a high quality rail corridor out through the NW of Dublin will be a certain success. The problem, more likely will be that it will be oversubscribed too soon and people will complain that a heavy rail metro should have been built.
MN is not some glamour vanity project – all other options were considered and MN was chosen as the most affordable system that could deal with the sort of capacity needed given reasonable growth.
MN will be there for 200 years so one has to consider what NW dublin will be like 20/50/80 years from now.

The throughput in Dublin airport, even in this downturn is still 20 million +.
When growth resumes it will quickly be over 25 million plus.
This is 70,000 people a day on average. Then there are about 15,000 people directly employed by airport related industries.
Most of this 70,000 passengers might not use MN but a lot of them will.
Swords itself has been transformed from a semi rural village to a budding metropolis in the space of 25 years.
In 20 years time it’s population is projected to rise to 125,000. MN will be significant in it’s development.
These are projections but looking at the past, they are much more likely than anything more modest.
Then there is DCU, the Mater hospital, the link to the Maynooth line (soon to be DART) the link with the LUAS Red and Green lines.
The idea that anybody would prefer a one and a half hour bus trip costing 3/4 euros in preference to a metro trip taking 25 mins costing 4/5 euros is not sensible.
As people do on the outer London transport stations, passengers not directly on the line in the Swords area will park their cars at the park and ride at Bellinstown and others will get local buses to connect.
In the vicinity of every DART station you will find every available parking space taken during the daytime, even 10 mins walking distance from the station- without designated car parks even in place.
Dubliners will enthusiastically embrace a decent public transport service. Those who argue against it are the ones who have got us into the situation were in.

The so called celtic tiger was not a mirage. We are in a worse situation than most now because (with hindsight) the construction sector was allowed to over inflate.
But this cannot eclipse the underlying factors that mean Ireland is very well positioned to grow strongly again when the world economy picks up.
We have the assets in human and geographic resources. If climate change is a reality we will be better placed than most and we have to plan for that.

@marmajam wrote:

Most people interested in the metro project understand the rationale behind it. It is not being built only for the circumstances of today, which themselves warrant it ayway, but it represents the joined up thinking that many criticised was lacking in previous administrations.

Recessions come and go but overall expansion increases exponentially. It is wiser to plan for this than to sit on your hands and wait.

The is a fundamental difference between a recession and what is going on in Ireland; Ireland has through ‘tax reform’ ended up in a situation that features a tax base that collects only 65% of the money required to public services at current levels for the country and that excludes the bank bailout.

@marmajam wrote:

In fact with construction costs down 25% this is the time for big projects like this.
When you look at the patronage of the DART which has the open sea along one side of it’s length it is obvious that a high quality rail corridor out through the NW of Dublin will be a certain success. The problem, more likely will be that it will be oversubscribed too soon and people will complain that a heavy rail metro should have been built.
MN is not some glamour vanity project – all other options were considered and MN was chosen as the most affordable system that could deal with the sort of capacity needed given reasonable growth.
MN will be there for 200 years so one has to consider what NW dublin will be like 20/50/80 years from now.

Metro North was chosen on the basis of three facts firstly it ran slap bang down the middle of the then Taoiseach’s constituency, secondly the presumption was that 100,000 homes a year would be sold into infinity and the promise of metro secured the transport credentials for many a planning application and thirdly Dublin Airport would have 30m passengers by 2015. All three presumptions are now ancient history.

@marmajam wrote:

The throughput in Dublin airport, even in this downturn is still 20 million +.
When growth resumes it will quickly be over 25 million plus.
This is 70,000 people a day on average. Then there are about 15,000 people directly employed by airport related industries.
Most of this 70,000 passengers might not use MN but a lot of them will.
Swords itself has been transformed from a semi rural village to a budding metropolis in the space of 25 years.
In 20 years time it’s population is projected to rise to 125,000. MN will be significant in it’s development.

Between 1970 and 1990 Japan grew at an average of 7% a year, between 1990 and 2005 it stagnated; rapid periods of boom are often followed by lengthy periods of stagnation. 2006 is ancient history.

@marmajam wrote:

These are projections but looking at the past, they are much more likely than anything more modest.

Of course the projection of 100,000 houses a year ‘that had to go somewhere’ when the contemporary economy delivers 20,000 houses a year most of them in the provinces.

@marmajam wrote:

Then there is DCU, the Mater hospital, the link to the Maynooth line (soon to be DART) the link with the LUAS Red and Green lines..

With an airport spur the Maynooth line could intersect just as easily at Connolly station and for 10-15% of the price as could the Red Luas Line; with interconnector the green line is in an identical position. DCU while generating some passenger activity is small scale; the Mater is 10 minutes walk from Drumcoundra or O’Connell St.

@marmajam wrote:

The idea that anybody would prefer a one and a half hour bus trip costing 3/4 euros in preference to a metro trip taking 25 mins costing 4/5 euros is not sensible..

The bus costs between €1.60 and €2.20 and does not take 90 minutes; your figures don’t add up. For the time conscious allowing taxi’s to use the port tunnell free would have them in Spencer Dock in less than 20 minutes or Merrion Street in 25 minutes; put 4people in a cab and there is little cost difference and a lot less handling of cases.

@marmajam wrote:

As people do on the outer London transport stations, passengers not directly on the line in the Swords area will park their cars at the park and ride at Bellinstown and others will get local buses to connect.
In the vicinity of every DART station you will find every available parking space taken during the daytime, even 10 mins walking distance from the station- without designated car parks even in place..

They already do to Malahide to use Dart; if they want to go to the airport or DCU they drive the backroads through St Margarets. For outer commuters build Multi Storey carparks in Rush/Lusk and Donabate; I belive NAMA have a few too many acres in that part of the World.

@marmajam wrote:

Dubliners will enthusiastically embrace a decent public transport service. Those who argue against it are the ones who have got us into the situation were in.

The so called celtic tiger was not a mirage. .

Given the hangover most people must wish it was a mirage. Using funds put aside to cover future pension liabilities to build Bertie’s vanity swansong fails on the following points.

1. The demand side is flawed it is based on top of the cycle projections
2. The money isn’t there to pay for it
3. The pension fund should be treated like any other soveriegn wealth fund and left alone to fulfill its intended purpose which was one of the better initiatives of the FF era.
4. The costs of finance are too high
5. Dublin Airport passenger traffic is declining
6. Net in migration has ceased the next phase will involve a lot less imigration and as a result a lot less air traffic as these migrants return home from other countries
7.The route doesn’t have densification potential for most of its length
8. The Destruction of Stephens Green as part of the construction process; where the AHU’s should never have been proposed to be sited.
9. Undisciplined construction costs http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0705/electricians.html

2004 – 2006 Fiscal Surplus and project conception
2009-2014 Deficit and no funds.

I want metro north to be built but.

4 euro a fare? average unlikely unless airport ticket 10 euro?…
rome 1 euro
madrid 2 euro?
valencia 2.20?

It’s a catch 22 from what I can see the fare cannot be more expensive that a bus ticket 20 cents mabye… The ticket price in Rome has not changed for 4 years min.!
If the ticket to the airport is 5/10 euro its unlikely people will be using it to go to work at the airport. If some one is going to Drumcondra/swords you would assume they could have a taxi for the same price. A trip to the airport in Madrid is dirt cheap on the metro.
Someone going to the airport to meet someone for 20 euro return?

I wonder how much they will pay for electricity:D

I’m not going to pretend I know too many stats, nor do I care for them, but PVC K, a Dublin Bus to the airport (the 747) costs €6, and Dublin Bus warn that journies from O’Connell St to the airport can take 55mins at peak time, not including that it starts from BusÁras, so 90mins probably isn’t too wild an estimation.

http://www.dublinbus.ie/en/Your-Journey1/Timetables/All-Timetables/747/

The aircoach for comparison costs €7 one way or €12 return (all prices for adult)

A small point, granted, but just to show that all the supposed facts and figures above, if one was to give them the time, are probably all bunkum.

This thread is getting very, very tedious, please give it up.

To make a transport project viable you either charge high prices to airport travellers and put off local commuters or you have enough locals to make it a pleasant surprise for airport travellers.

Sadly in the case of Dublin the airport is not sufficiently difficult to access to have business travellers pay €20 return as part of their day trip to Manchester or Glasgow and there certainly aren’t enough commuters to have a fare structure that lines up with the existing fare matrix of Dart from Malahide or bus from Ballymun. That real wage growth that was going to lead to a minimum wage of €12 an hour by 2015 hmmmmmmmmm

@spoil_sport wrote:

I’m not going to pretend I know too many stats, nor do I care for them, but PVC K, a Dublin Bus to the airport (the 747) costs €6, and Dublin Bus warn that journies from O’Connell St to the airport can take 55mins at peak time, not including that it starts from BusÁras, so 90mins probably isn’t too wild an estimation.

http://www.dublinbus.ie/en/Your-Journey1/Timetables/All-Timetables/747/

The aircoach for comparison costs €7 one way or €12 return (all prices for adult)

A small point, granted, but just to show that all the supposed facts and figures above, if one was to give them the time, are probably all bunkum.

This thread is getting very, very tedious, please give it up.

The 16A costs €2.20; if you take the aircoach that is personal choice; I do as the route fits. If it were to allowed to use the port tunnel free that would be even better, but we haven’t been given that no cost to the taxpayer option.

If you want time as a justification; what is wrong with waiting until a revised needs assessment for transport for the region done at 2009 figures is undertaken?

@spoil_sport wrote:

I’m not going to pretend I know too many stats, nor do I care for them, but PVC K, a Dublin Bus to the airport (the 747) costs €6, and Dublin Bus warn that journies from O’Connell St to the airport can take 55mins at peak time, not including that it starts from BusÁras, so 90mins probably isn’t too wild an estimation.

http://www.dublinbus.ie/en/Your-Journey1/Timetables/All-Timetables/747/

The aircoach for comparison costs €7 one way or €12 return (all prices for adult)

A small point, granted, but just to show that all the supposed facts and figures above, if one was to give them the time, are probably all bunkum.

This thread is getting very, very tedious, please give it up.

In fairness, the 16A is a rather good service now, it’s not the nightmare it was even a few years ago thanks to new bus lanes and whatnot. There’s also the 41, 46x and 102 which are standard fares too.

So jumping to conclusions that PVC’s arguments are rubbish because there are routes you didn’t know about is a bit unfair.

But I agree, there’s a bit too much sniping going on on the thread which makes certain people’s arguments less credible…

I give up on you pvc queen. you’re hopelessly confused.

the fare might be 2.20 now but in 2016 it will be over 3 euros and so on and so on

spoilsport is right, numbers can be used to prove anything.

the difference is you have the mindset that we are certain to decline. but ireland is not Japan – we are more like a region than an independent national economy.
we are more likely to expand quite quickly but even if we stagnate so what?
we won’t be stagnating for 100/200 years and that is the timeframe for MN

in the most negative situation, the repayments will be tight only for the fist few yeras.
10 years after it’s open they will be peanuts relatively speaking

you started out saying it would cost 200 million a year with 100 income. that’s been shot down
but never mind, it’s now immoral to build it sez you.

it was not planned on the projected construction of 100,000 houses or 35 million passengers per year at the airport. you made that up
as you need to continually invent ‘facts’ as your original numbers fall apart.

the claim that the route was chosen because it goes through Bertie’s constituency lets the cat out of the bag.

it’s all a conspiracy. the gov is to blame ha ha

Fine Gael PVC? COIR? Libertas-me-arse?

@marmajam wrote:

the fare might be 2.20 now but in 2016 it will be over 3 euros and so on and so on

the difference is you have the mindset that we are certain to decline. but ireland is not Japan – we are more like a region than an independent national economy.
we are more likely to expand quite quickly but even if we stagnate so what?
we won’t be stagnating for 100/200 years and that is the timeframe for MN

No but if you take away the pension fund and if demographics stay as they are there will be a huge pension fund hole in 20 – 30 years if the project runs into difficulty. Given that basic pensions are €210 a person you can’t risk those funds to invest in a clearly loss making project. Most certainly not at a rate of return that is significantly below the ‘risk free asset’ of government bonds. The idea of this investment was to ensure that if the economy stalled disproportionately that income streams from other markets would cushion the blow. In the Celtic Tiger era you could take that chance on the back of huge fiscal surpluses, not anymore.

The idea of an infrastreucture bond for a pension fund is original because it breaks every investment principal of spreading risk and acheiving long term returns. Best case scenario the bond gets repaid having earned below ‘risk free asset returns’ for its life. Worst case scenario it is subordinate to government debt and a future government buys it back at a rate in euro.

@marmajam wrote:

in the most negative situation, the repayments will be tight only for the fist few yeras.
10 years after it’s open they will be peanuts relatively speaking.

At 25m passengers it will never pay its way; what are the runnings costs? The interest payments aren’t even covered.

@marmajam wrote:

you started out saying it would cost 200 million a year with 100 income. that’s been shot down
but never mind, it’s now immoral to build it sez you.

it was not planned on the projected construction of 100,000 houses or 35 million passengers per year at the airport. you made that up
as you need to continually invent ‘facts’ as your original numbers fall apart.

The 35m passengers is based on contemporary projections that between 2006 – 2015 that air travel would grow by 7% per year. Holding an average of 20m pax for the next decade will be a good performance.

I stick to the €200m which is made up of €110m interest, €50m operational loss or operators profit on top and a 2% sinking fund to cover future large scale programmes of works for the 30 – 40 year periodic refurbishment of stations, rolling stock track etc.

I have yet to learn details of the money that the consortia are willing to pay the government to operate the franchise; surely if it is north of €50m p.a.x. they would be trumpeting this. How you can claim that this project will almost break even is quite Parlonesque

@marmajam wrote:

the claim that the route was chosen because it goes through Bertie’s constituency lets the cat out of the bag.

it’s all a conspiracy. the gov is to blame ha ha

Fine Gael PVC? COIR? Libertas-me-arse?

No the point made is not party political it as an observation of the correlation between senior government figures and vanity projects. Take Martin Cullen and a motorway to Waterford, P Flynn and the road to Castlebar, Gordon Brown and the straddling of HBos on Lloyds.

However what is worse is that the current government is selling the pension pot of this country down the drain as a short term stimulus measure on a project that simply does not stand up to scutiny. If this paid a return i.e. even paid back 25% of the interest payments surely the government would be crowing about it; their silence is deafening.

silence is golden

p.s. PVCqueen, you should start a movement: ‘Save the country form Metro North’ –
why, if you don’t do it, who will?
I’m sure there’s a thousand virgins in paradise for every matyr to the cause.
People will appreciate your command of numbers and you’ll get recognition as a genuine big nob in the theology of the economic end of days.

Metro rail delay as board seeks new details
FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor

AN BORD Pleanála is now unlikely to make a decision on the Dublin Metro North project until early next year following its request for a raft of further information on the project from its promoters, the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA).

An RPA spokesman has conceded that the board’s request will result in a delay in determining its Railway Order application, but he said the agency would work hard to meet the October 1st deadline for submitting the new information.

Apart from seeking further details about the impact on “sensitive” properties such as the Rotunda and Mater hospitals, the Fitzwilliam Hotel on St Stephen’s Green and Corpus Christi National School in Drumcondra, the board wants to know more about many aspects of the project.

It complains that the RPA’s application for a Railway Order as well as the format of the original environmental impact statement (EIS) “make it very difficult for the public and affected parties to determine specific impacts of the proposed development” on particular properties.

The board’s request, which runs to 32 pages, requires the RPA to submit environmental reports on the likely effects arising from the construction and operation of the proposed metro line for 10 “sensitive receptors”, including specific mitigation measures in each case.

It also notes that the EIS, prepared by consultants, “does not address” the likely adverse environmental impacts from the diversion of utilities – electricity, gas, telecom and sewer lines – along the 18km route between Lissenhall, north of Swords, and St Stephen’s Green.

The board also wants an environmental assessment of the impacts of utility works in Ballymun as well as Parnell Square, O’Connell Bridge and St Stephen’s Green.

“Plans and details of the existing and proposed arrangements of utilities are requested. In addition, clear timeframes for the utilities works must also be included,” the board said. All utilities to be protected or diverted away from excavation areas are to be identified.

Dealing with archaeology, the planning board wants a geophysical survey of the area of St Stephen’s Green (“an important national monument”) that would be affected by metro construction works, with an assessment of the archaeological issues to be resolved.

Noting that the metro depot would be located on the site of Belinstown Castle, near Swords, it seeks a geophysical survey as well as test-trenching – with the results to be submitted to the board along with plans to preserve, record or protect archaeological materials.

The board is also seeking more information about flood risk assessment, park-and-ride sites, the impact of constructing a “cut-and-cover” tunnel through Ballymun, noise and traffic, and electromagnetic interference with sensitive hospital equipment.

http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/Metro%20North%20RO%20Oral%20Hearing%20Evidence/29%20Jun%204387%20ABP%20Further%20Information%20Requested.pdf

In there risk assessments they have Preliminary unexploded ordinance assessment has been completed! This would have to be the most complicated project in the state?

flooding around the world there was a water main in Paris aswell…
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0709/1224250318614.html

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mackers/125769516/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/isaimoreno/1471936772/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/41232123@N00/2763266325/

Is the water pressure sorted?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0710/1224250387417.html

he gave that interview while throwing darts at a cartoon of big Frankie MacDonald

If it all goes to plan we will have another 7 years of these 😀
People never stop talking about public transport…

@missarchi wrote:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0710/1224250387417.html

I think Dempsey needs to realise that there is no money to pay for it, Passenger traffic is dropping and will continue to drop at Dublin Airport, that it will lose a significant sum of money and that International Finance markets have no appetite to extend unlimited finance.

As soon as the tendering and planning processes have concluded, the cost-benefit appraisal will be carried out,” said Mr Dempsey.

The time to do this was before going to into what has probably been the most expensive planning process undertaken in the history of the state.

Simple solution build the interconnector and develop the 50 plus miles of enhanced capacity on existing routes and the small linking route. That is probably 90 square miles of land for which to plan and build sustainably for the new smarter economy that seems to be developing albeit a lot slower than any of us would like.

Why hasn’t the port tunnel granted free access to taxis? Where is the pragmatism?

Dear me.

more fantasy from the ‘expert’ who told us that metro trains only ran with a 3rd rail.
that the DART underground might was unfeasible without a 3rd rail since the cost of upgrading bridges would be prohibitive. A long report written by our expert without the knowledge that the Kildare line bridges have already been upgraded. There is no serious iisue with the Maynooth line either.

2 CBAs have been done for MN.

There is something of a possibility that Dempsey is in a better position to know the real financial data of MN than PeeVeeCee.
The steering committee for MN includes officials from the DoF.
The exact quote is:
“As soon as the tendering and planning processes have concluded, the cost-benefit appraisal will be carried out,” said Mr Dempsey. “Once it proves positive, which I am certain will be the case, construction will commence.”

I think one of the problems PeeVeeCee has is he has no understanding of the thoroughness of the preparations and studies that have gone into these projects. This is why we keep hearing the impulsive somewhat childish howlers.

the word ‘appraisal’ was used with reason.

The government deficit kind of outlines that ND as well as his colleagues really don’t have any track record on financial management to speak of. I would love to see you take their manifesto and see how much of it still retains validity.

Both CBA’s were completed in a very different funding environment, you remember the one that produced a cost benefit analysis that proved the Western Rail Corridor a project to be commenced.

Confident in that level of analysis?

There’s only one way to settle this …. topless mud wrestling!

I was thinking more…………..a few right handers with a rolled up CBA up the Kyber.

@PVC King wrote:

The government deficit kind of outlines that ND as well as his colleagues really don’t have any track record on financial management to speak of. I would love to see you take their manifesto and see how much of it still retains validity.

Both CBA’s were completed in a very different funding environment, you remember the one that produced a cost benefit analysis that proved the Western Rail Corridor a project to be commenced.

Confident in that level of analysis?

I’m confidant in anything you think is wrong

Looking at the prices of property and the state of the building sector you’d be wiser not calling anybody to task about their track record.