Re: Re: transport21
Where did you get your 2bn for MN?
It is incorrect.
The contract will be signed for approx 1.75bn..
€2bn is being generous in terms of ability to hit a figure. The idea that almost 50% could be shaved off in a year is laughable; as we all know the RPA won’t release even an estimate based on a 20% variance range; even though construction margins on projects of this scale are less than 10%.
Luas to Ballymun makes no sense. There’s no need for it. The buses do a very good job.
The Luas through Ballymun was really for the airport and Swords..
I disagree the route would serve DCU, Whitehall and Ballymun which is about equivelent to the Luas line to Tallaght; albeit without the huge industrial area in the middle. If it isn’t fit for Luas it surely isn’t fit for Metro.
It is not feasible to funnell all the airport/Swords and Nth Fingal rail traffic through the DART/Nth Line corridor to Connolly/Docklands.
It stymies develpment already underway in the airport/Swords locale..
It is entirely feasible; otherwise Irish Rail would not have proposed it in their 2004 Dublin Rail Plan; extending the Malahide dart to Swords if done with grade seperation would increase capacity on the Northern line.
The idea that every 5 years into the planning process we should cancel everything and make a new back of an envelope plan based on the latest Daily Mail economic take of events is not real world stuff..
The events of the past 2 years economically are not 5 year cycle territory they are once in lifetime scale events. Dublin is a fundamentally different equation than it was in 2006.
PVC started off with the argument that MN would cost 5bn with 10% interest repayments.
In fact it will be 1.75bn at approx 5%.
87m a year. More than covered by revenue projected at 100m+ in 2016.
Let me get this; 23m passengers will pay an average fare of €4.35 per passenger; then the route will run itself with no labour, energy or maintenance costs. At €4.35 per passenger per journey most people will take the bus further denting demand below the stated 23m passengers claimed in a much stronger economic environment. Revenue at €2.80 per fare would total €63m; I’ve also never seen the stated running costs. The project would probably lose €40m a year operationally if the figure of €100m plus bandied out is realised; add that to the costs of subordinate debt at 5.75%p.a. and you get an annualised loss of €155m p.a. or €6.74 per passenger carried.
Inflation after that will render the repayments small beer very quickly. MN will drive economic development in the Nth/NW Fingal area for 150-200 years. There will be more recessions and booms..
Beyond 20 reversions can’t be valued; if a project was to be analysed over 200 years and operational costs ignored the Western Rail Corridor could be proved viable; oh that is the programme for Government that did that.
The idea that MN is some sort of low capacity tram is also incorrect. It will have 4 times the capacity of Luas – there are many grades of Metro/light-heavy rail syste4ms in operation around the globe. MN is appropriate for Dublin..
So Luas to Ballymum doesn’t stack up; buit a metro to the airport and Swords does; an annual hole of €155m in the transport budget is wholly inappropriate for Dublin.
Any costs during construction will be more than covered by SS savings, VAT and income tax.
The project is ready to go and will give an important stimulus to the economy.
All the guff about DART lines here there and everywhere – given the Irish planning process…………pure fantasy.
Get real. As the actress said to the property developer.
The list is unlike this project a list of bolt-ons that can be added as the funds are available and the development plans written and implemented to plan in a co-ordinated way. Look at the way the Germans build their systems it is spine and branch not large scale unviable and stand alone.