Re: Re: transport21
@Frank Taylor wrote:
They estimated about 20m passengers and approximate operational break-even the year before opening (2003).
http://www.transport.ie/viewitem.asp?id=4379&lang=ENG&loc=1346.
Never questioned your word; I would however say that D6 had a higher density in 2003 than D9 has now.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
The population density along the route is not relevant – an apartment building next to the line will generate no trips if it is nowhere near a station. What matters is the actual and potential residential/worker/student density in walking distance around the stations and the popularity of the station location as a trip destination (for shopping or entertainment or whatever).I’m not sure how this question is relevant to MN ridership. The red line follows a different route from the IC. They intersect at Heuston and Docklands.IC will certainly take passengers from the red line for journeys between heuston and docklands, however both lines will feed passengers to each other. I expect overall ridership on the red line to increase post IC..
My question was not what happens in 2016 post IC; it was do a passenger count on existing Luas Red coming down Stephens Lane and do another one crossing Kings Bridge; what is the percentage difference and how many crossing Kings Bridge will do so when they are offered IC.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
I think they did their own forecasts based on the DTO demand prediction model. They would have had to get their estimates independently audited by one of the transport consultancies like Faber Maunsell.
Frank
Even if you buy the proposition that 46% of the maximum passenger load will board MN before Swords at peak the 35m doesn’t stack up.
Maximum hourly volume is about 6,100 which occurs at DCU; by the time the segregated Luas reaches DCU roughly 800 people have alighted on presumably a Monday to Friday basis. The stated capacity of MN is 35m which assumes 95,890 passengers per day; assuming the system works from 630 am to 1230am the system would carry an average of 5,327 people per day for an 18 hour period.
I would present an alternative scenario
Monday to Friday (hourly figures)
630am – 730am 1,500 people inbound 1,000 people outbound
730am – 930am 6,900 people inbound 1,000 people outbound
930am – 430pm 1,500 people each direction
430pm – 630pm 5,000 outbound 1,250 inbound
630pm – 1230am 2,000 outbound 1,000 people inbound
19.06m
Weekends
630am 1230pm 2,000 per hour each direction
3.74m
Total 22.8m p.a.x
Please comment on the credibility of the passenger load added at each station from Bellinstown to Drumcounrda; with particular reference to the latter and the lack of interchange passengers
