Forum Replies Created
@Bob Dole wrote:
Indeed and their own agendas – which is why one shouldn’t listen to people like Dan “Interest rates will stop at 3.5%” McLaughlin from Bank of Ireland – as he has a vested interest in talking up the market.
The best people to listen to are Trichet and the ECB themselves.
Interest rates are returning to normal – the normal rates for the Euro are 4-5% – this is based on the historical Deutschemark interest rates. Again you should listen to the ECB who say the current environment is “accomodative” – i.e. historically low.
Yes it is – again read what the ECB says.
Fair point. Listening to those who don’t have a vested interest makes good sense (when they know what they are talking about).
@Bob Dole wrote:
Correct – if there is a house price correction of approximately 50%. You should also pay attention to the collapsing American housing bubble – rental yields there were 7%, and yet house prices are falling.
Current demand for property is fueled by speculation on future rises in the price on houses. It is not bought for investment purposes (i.e. based on the rental yield returned by the property). As such, it relies on the “Greater Fool Theory”. To simplify things – it is currently a pyramid scheme. I believe you will also find that up to a certain point, it was easy to find people who wanted to join the numerous pyramid schemes that have been doing the rounds.
The source? Was it an Estate Agent or a tied economist, who followed it up with “so buy property now”?
A report from NCB today.
@Bob Dole wrote:
Bubbles by definition burst.
275,000 houses in Ireland currently lie idle, which are complete and not owned by developers and excluding holiday homes (according to the CSO) – a further 95,000 houses are to be built this year alone. There is an oversupply of housing at present. Supply outstrips demand.
Rental yields will need to go up by 250% to reach historic norms – this is at a time with a massive oversupply of housing and if (when) there is a recession, many immigrants will leave in search of work.
I’m currently in a position where I am “trading up”. I have made a 100% gain in the value of my property over the last 4 years. Do you think now is a good time to do this? In a perfect situation I could sell now and wait to see how the market goes over the next year or so and then buy when prices collapse. Not sure if I can wait that long though….
@Bob Dole wrote:
They weren’t wrong with regard to this – the rules of the game were simply changed: Mr. Greenspan simply dropped Fed rates post the dot com crash to prevent a recession for the short term. This was followed by the ECB. This created a “perfect storm” for Ireland with the improved fundamentals of the 90’s leading into a frenzy of credit bingeing with repeated relaxings of mortgage lending criteria (ostensibly for the “benefit” of borrowers) allowing the bubble to inflate. Watch it collapse as interest rates hit 4.25% next year.
That said – Mr. Greenspan’s actions and a number of the consequences were predicted by some – e.g. by Eric Janszen on itulip.com as early as 1998.
Well, you always get a range of different opinions by economists. Each economist or economic body has their own model that they use to make predictions. While these predictions may eventually play out they are not always very accurate at saying when exactly they will play out. A down turn in the property market in Ireland may still only end up being a short blip and last only as long as interest rates are high. That is unlikely to be for very long. The conditions will soon turn right again for investors to return to the market. When you say there is a bubble, are you assuming that the demand for property is not very real? The latest “prediction” by some economists is that Irelands population will rocket over the next 15 or so years. If there is a bubble right now it should be short lived as demand picks up once more. I don’t think we will see the same capital appreciation as before but maybe rents will increase to generate better rental yields for investors and reduce the attractiveness of capital appreciation as the real reason for investors to buy property.
@Bob Dole wrote:
It went past rational in 2002 – when due to house price inflation, rental yields fell below 5%. Yields are now in the 2%-3% bracket – less than the amount of money you get in a deposit account with Northern Rock (4%) . Betting on “capital appreciation” which is not backed up by yield is simple speculation rather than investment.
Askaboutmoney.com is a better forum for this topic though.
I guess what I meant by wanting it to stayl rational is that investors don’t all leave the market at once…which could cause a price crash. I’m selling my own property at the moment in order to trade up. I have an investor interested but not sure why they are exactly for the reasons you stated. It is safer and more profitable from a yield point of view to put your money in a savings a/c. Clearly this person believes good capital appreciation is still on the cards. Who knows…the economists have been wrong in their predictions more than once!
It was reported on the Pat Kenny Show last week, 80% sale failures at auction in Dublin, 65-70% and rising in the country.
I do of course accept that auctions in Dublin are much more common than in Cork, but given that â€œnormalâ€ buyers (first timers etc) use private treaty sales rather than auction I think it follows that those in the know i.e. auction buyers are deserting the market.
Thanks for elaborating. There certainly seems to be a wind of change in the property market of late. I just hope it all stays rational.
With most houses now failing to sell at auction and many apartments lying idle since built….
Just curious as to where you came across this information? Are these facts or just generally accepted as being the case? I thought that initial part of your comment related only to houses in Dublin failing to sell at auction?
Does anyone know who will be building the new Carrigaline Town Centre and when it is due to begin?
A major redevelopment of Kent Station for 4 million!!
A house extention in some parts of the Country would cost more.:eek:
I assume that figure as printed in the Echo is a misprint?
I don’t think it’s a misprint. If you look at the list of things they are proposing to do, they are only a subset of the original plans where they said they would create a plaza at the back of kent station so travellers could walk straight towards the city centre over a new pedestrian bridge. I don’t see even an ambiguous suggestion that they are going to do this in the article. 🙁
must say I think knocking Lovetts is a disgrace. When you look at some of the stuff that is listed (apparently the old science building in UCC is!) its amazing this isn’t.
Just generally, is it that post-Lexington this site doesn’t capture all the development news in existence or have things gone this quiet? the city needs something big to happen asap (CIE are you listening).
From the following link it looks clear that Irish Rail are not going to carry out the original plans 🙁
Not too sure A-Ha. I heard almost a year ago that BOS had done a deal to buy the ESB retail shops around the country but obviously that didn’t go ahead.
Are you saying that no ESB shop in the country has been converted over to a BOSI branch??
@a boyle wrote:
that is exactly why i butted into this thread. you cant have it all . not now anyway. over twenty/thirty years sure.
That is why you need to step back look at what you have built , see what impact it has had , and decide what to do next.
I disagree. Assuming things stay on track economically, (and even if there is a downturn), I don’t see why we couldn’t have most of this infrastructure built in under 10 years. It just takes the political will and the ability to deliver. With Dublin being a kind of test bed for many new projects it should be easier to do these things in Cork and other parts of the country using the experience gained. We should be more ambitious in my opinion. If we set our sights low then we will get very little.
We need it all really.
Cork needs those other 2 flyovers done. It also needs the patchwork of Dunkettle sorted out, and possibly the north ring, but not quite yet for that.
The Bus service needs a compete and utter overhaul.
We need a LUAS type system, running from the train station, to the bus station, down Patricks Street, out to UCC, to CIT and other spurs as needed.
I totally agree with you and each mode of transport needs to be integrated so it can have the effect of creating an efficient and easy system to use. I can see the possibility of developers becoming involved in paying for a LUAS type system in Cork just like it is beginning to happen in Dublin. It may be up to the government to install a central line as you suggested but other spurs to new and existing population centres could be paid for (at least partially) by developers who would also benefit.
I heard recently that the Mitchelstown Bypass, which was due to begin construction sometime at the start of 2007 has been put off for two years or so due to difficulties related to funding. Great.
Where did you hear that exactly? If this section of the N8 is held up I very much doubt it has to do with funding since from 2007 money is coming on stream from Transport 21. Even so, there is a guaranteed funding envelope for roads from the Dept. of Finance. Given that big projects are being completed this year such as the Port Tunnel, this should see more resources available to start new projects. As far as I’m aware this piece of new roadway is already through the planning stages at this point so I don’t see why it should be held up. The only thing I can think of is that because the Mitchelstown Relief road is complete that the NRA might want to prioritize other projects since this bottleneck has been improved. Saying all that, if the project begins in mid 2008 like you suggest, I don’t think it would be impossible to have it completed by the end of 2010 which is when the government claim the entire inter-urban network will be finished.
Next always gets bad press for just being another British high street retailer. But some of the ones in places like London and Birmingham don’t even resemble Next over here. Large stores with twice the amount of goods for sale, including furniture. I’ve never seen a Next over here selling furniture. I always thought Woolworths would do well here, but they left the Irish market years and years ago.
Woolworths left at a time when the Irish economy was going down the tubes.
@Angry Rebel wrote:
Do you?! Sorry, my mother always told me not to answer a questions with a question. However, whether the mistakes were made in other countries is exactly the point!!
1 – If no mistakes were made then clearly those countries really had their sh*t together and we should have spoken to and learnt from them.
2 – If the mistakes were made,I don’t care that France or Italy wasted their own money (or the EUs) but it means that people/agencies were out there to consult on lessons learned on similar projects.
Check out this website:
It is an archive which contains quite a lot of information about the development of the UK motorway network. As you read through it you begin to see a certain resemblance to what is going on today in Ireland in terms of what it takes to get a motorway developed. Keep in mind that Ireland has only recently had the resources to develop such a network and a lot of resources are needed to bring in the expertise you talk about. Even the M25 was built in a piecemeal fashion and took ages to complete. Remind you of the M50?
@Angry Rebel wrote:
Providing infrastructure is not the same thing as building houses, and in fact, given the high level of housing provided, there should be accelerated delivery of infrastructure to support these developments. This means roads, public transport, schools, medical facilities, public space and much more.
Dedicating central lanes is one of the more pointless ideas I’ve heard in a while. For a start, having an increased number of pedestrians in the centre of the road, who must cross lanes of traffic to access the central median to leave or enter buses is dangerous and disruptive to traffic flows. Furthermore, there is space to run buses in those lanes, but generally not enough to provide a safe and comfortable boarding area.
Re motorrways: 3 years of a delay in delivering a road of only 160 miles is laughable, and something you would not see in most other developed countries. You must wonder who was in charge of making sure we had the expertise, the knowledge and the gumption to put their hands up and say, “Hang on, we don’t know what we’re doing here, let’s talk to someone who’s done it before”.
Do you know for a fact that similar issues have not appeared in other developed countries when they were trying to role out their motorway network?
@Angry Rebel wrote:
The Fermoy bypass will open in October.
The Cashel/Mitchelstown piece has been underway for over a month and will run from the Cork side of the Cashel bypass to a few mile the Dublin side of Mitchelstown.
Can anyone explain to me why we do new roads in 20 and 30 and 40 km sections. Would it not be more economical to tender for, say 150km? This would be a contract of sufficient size to attract large international groups who may be able to price more competitively on a large contract but wouldn’t be interested in the bitty pieces currently on offer (unless as a minority partner in a joint venture led by an Irish firm).
I suspect it’s partially to do with developers based in Ireland wanting it that way and maybe it was deemed way too difficult to get projects of the size you suggest through the planning process here since anyone on a whim can decide to object. :rolleyes: I do agree that we should have much larger projects.
@Thomond Park wrote:
I agree the 10-20kms was laughable given the fiscal set up since 1995 or so.
The NDP stated that you would have a full motorway to Dublin by years end, you currently have a dual carriageway to Wattergrasshill which leaves a 100 kms plus gap to Portlaoise
It’s been accepted by many for a long time that the original NDP timeframe was not going to be delivered on for roads. I’m not saying that this is acceptable but in fairness it is the first time a government in Ireland and our civil service have tried to plan such projects and it does take time to learn and get it right. I think they have this nailed now in relation to road projects. I would also like to see the records of other countries when they tried to deliver their road projects back in the 50’s and 60’s. Did they also have the same teething problems that our administrators have had?Thomond Park wrote:From a Cork perspective the motorway network is not moving full steam ahead it in fact stops at Watergrasshill and does not recommence until Portlaoise.
In the UK in general and London & Birmingham in particular public transport is taken as a given it must be of a sufficient standard to move millions of people around every day. Comparing Dublin to either is a joke]
The NRA website would contradict what you are saying that the motorway network is not moving at pace in the Cork area. According to the NRA the Fermoy bypass is under construction and is due to be completed ahead of schedule. The Cashel/Mitchelstown bypass is to start this year as is the Cullahill/Cashel bypass. It is very likely they will be finished ahead of schedule which is normal unless there are some legal issues. The Mitchelstown/Fermoy section in in planning as is the Portliaoise/Cullahill bypass. I think this covers the entire N8 route. Of course this level of activity might not mean full steam ahead for you?
Rolling stock? more like laughing stock. Carriages were due to be rolled out in Dec 05 – now it appears there may be ONE of the new trains MAYBE next month. Irish Rail should be privatised. Its the only way the company will work
This does not mean that it isn’t going to happen and that the new services wont deliver improvements. You might be right about privatization of the Cork to Dublin line. I’m not sure about all services yet. That said the results of privatization are not clear. There are cases where state rail companies can deliver excellent services like DB in Germany. That said DB is operated as a private company but the state holds all the shares :-). I’m sure some form of privatization will eventually come. Even Germany’s rail services are coming up for competition in the near future. Without a doubt privatization of Irish Rail will not come without pain 🙂
in all fairness, why would you bother with Irish Rail?
They offer an incredibly ineffective, inefficient and unsuitable service between the two major economic hubs of our state.
â‚¬60 to travel 300 miles return (usually without a seat) in a horribly aged railway car just doesn’t make any sense to me.
btw, anyone know where amazon plan to set up their new call centre in Cork?
Did you not hear about the service upgrade to hourly trains between Cork and Dublin and also the new rolling stock that Irish Rail will be introducing? Sure, it still won’t be to continental standards but it should be a welcome improvement and hopefully an indicator of things to come?