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@notjim wrote:
I am enough of a Keynsian to believe that, at this point, if we could raise the money from the Bond markets to pay people to dig holes for nothing it would be a good idea, how much better if they dig a metro. Only the MN plan can proceed in the near term and so, assuming the consortia have the PPP financing in place, this is the plan that should go ahead.
This is exactly how Argentina destroyed a decent fiscal position on the back of the dotcom fallout in 2001. They entered a number of PPP financing deals in the late 1990s which destroyed bond market sentiment as the risks created directly by the scale of the paybacks required were factored into the fiscal position.
If a Japanese design build and operate model were available with very limited exchequer payback it should be done but if the Argentinian model is all that is on offer all I can say is you didn’t want to be Buenos Aires in January 2002 it was ugly.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0305/ryanair.html
Ryanair has presented what it calls a ‘rescue plan for Irish tourism’ to the Government-appointed Tourism Renewal Group in a briefing at Dublin Castle.
The airline called for six specific measures to be implemented. It claimed these would enable traffic and tourism numbers in Ireland to grow by 20% over the next two years.
Ryanair wants the €10 travel tax scrapped. It has also called for an end to subsidies for regional air routes and the closure of the Aviation Regulator’s office. Ryanair also wants the Metro North project scrapped.
AdvertisementThe airline also called for the Dublin Airport Authority to reduce charges by 30%, and allow Cork and Shannon to ‘incentivise low-cost traffic growth instead of useless new route schemes’.
Ryanair said that if the travel tax were scrapped, it would reverse its recently announced cuts at Dublin and Shannon airports.
Less is more; will he take on SR Technics?
@layo wrote:
The line capacity at the moment is already at its absolute limit. Bringing a hugely busy spur line to an already constricted bottle neck (Connolly st. to south of loop line bridge) would just be impossible unless massive engineering works were undertaken to 4 track the entire line to say Bray.
It is also annoying that people are still seeing the Metro North as a line that ONLY serves Dublin airport. Its main passenger base will be commuters from north county Dublin who have for years been poorly serviced by public transport. This is the main reason that it is being built and it is a very negative connotation to view the Metro as an airport only connection line.
I do believe though that the Interconnector heavy rail DART line is a much more important infastructure, and is obviously being viewed as such by the EU as it is receiving funding under the TEN-T 2009 programme. http://www.transport21.ie/Projects/Heavy_Rail/DART_Underground.html
As someone who was involved with Rail Users Ireland in their embryonic days I am up to speed with the costs and user levels of the various options.
The reason the Northern Line is at capacity is that there are a number of train types using the line at different speeds i.e. trains going non-stop to Drogheda, non-stop to Howth Junction or stopping at every station en route. Trains to Dublin airport could easily be accomodated if they ran non-stop to Howth Junction and then stopped only at Dublin Airport if they ran 2 minutes behind Trains running to either Drogheda or Howth Junction that didn’t stop at each station.
Getting a connection to the City Centre from the airport is the objective not operating a train that becomes a Dart as soon as it hits trhe northern line; do people in Raheny have a god given right to a no-change route to the airport or do people in DCU have a similar right?
I also question your usage patterns on the North Commuter rail belt which excluding Swords is a series of quaint but small villages in the greater scheme of things. Look internationally there are very few international cities with a similar population to Dublin and none that I know of with similar development patterns that have ever spent this scale of expenditure on an underground rail link that wasn’t a 5kms or less project interconnecting two irrationally split rail systems.
I would love to see each kilometer of the metro be analysed on cost benefit grounds and each station’s projected passenger numbers as a proportion of the local population to see what contribution each station makes to operational revenues.
@reddy wrote:
On the subject of Metro North however, the challenge now is about getting bang for our buck. It is a good time to use public money (if it can be raised) to stimulate jobs, spending and liquidity in the economy but is a single, disconnected, not particularly impressive metro line really the way to go?
Keynsian economics would suggest go public projects such as undergrounds; however the Irish tax base was predicated on stamp duty and malahide tractor excise duty boom that instead of conforming with the cycle got boomier as proponents of Bush style idiology such as DICK Roche declared mass house ownership (whether afluent or sub-prime) a social duty and not an investment class.
There will not be a bounce in tax revenues on the far side of this due to the boom starting early 1990’s on a tax base base of corporate and incomes taxes disintegrating into a tax base predicated on a ridiculous weighting of big ticket sales as the population sold each other houses and bought cars with the profits!
Bond markets wish to see a penitent government being disciplined and factoring in the worst whilst having the capacity to invest in education and training to be ready to absorb FDI when the corner is turned.
I agree with your synopsis on light rail; Settle will connect SEA-Tac airport via a glorified Luas later this year to downtown. The existing scenario is 30 minutes to Grafton St via a bus with leather seats which is a lot better than the Heathrow Express to Oxford Circus or HKG to IIC via train since the airport moved to Lan Tao.
A luas journey of say 25 mins would represent real progress and probably costs c€500m or €100m a year over each of the next 5 years which would stimulate local employment and reassure bond markets that the state is capable of delivering projects of a proportionate scale. A spur to the Northern Line would cost €100m – €150m and be intergrated.
@marmajam wrote:
Well, you’d have to travel about 100 lengths of the metro route to find such a mangled concatenation of pretentious misinformed horsesh*te as is in this thread.
There’s enough hot gas to make the thing a levitating train service.
Since MN will cost no real money until built (2015) and then is paid over 25 yrs the whole tedious pontificating waffling is rendered defunct.
Obviously people who need to be rescued from the fantasy world of the net and get out a bit.Fantasy was Anglo at €17
Please set out the cahsflow analysis of your funding model or disapear to one post wonderland
Billions it would cost millions will emigrate if it is sanctioned
I wish I listened to your post in June last year it was prophetic you got this a good month before the first Lehman rumours hit in July.
Agreed the market lost the run of itself as the boom got boomier; sadly the best perfoming investment between 1994 and 2007 probably would have been a 50 acre tract of land with extensive road frontage on a gradually undulating site outside the devlopment boundary of say Kenmare or Westport disposed of gradually between April 2005 and April 2007 at up to €500k per half acre site; you’d have probably have paid €500k for the land in the first place and netted €20m or so before the market collapse leaving you with 60% of the holding.
I agree with your lack of confidence with the current management structures in the major banks; they need to be replaced with cooler heads who don’t chase return but seek safer lending. The Government has been like a rabbit in the headlines they need to start making hard decisions now on how to get the public finances back into order.
I agree with your position on interest holidays but would say that it was right to lend over 100% where developeers could clearly show that value above normal returns could be created in a short period of time. E.G. recladding a particularly horrific looking 1970’s office building or renovating a large period house from 7 flats c 1970s to say 4 decent flats where the end value was say 35% or more than the input costs on a 9 month project.
The real pain will be when BoS Ireland calls in Deloitte or BDO on the sillier loans they made on half finished development sites in the outer commuter belt in Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Waterford.
The Anglo approach of O’Connor seems about right hold distressed assets until the distress is releived by demographics creating pent up demand for property at whatever price level is deemed sustainable for prices to rise again and the short term commerical paper funding model of the banks is reformed.
The real downfall of Anglo seems to have been the waste of €300m of very scarce capital in an attempt to manipulate the share price; no doubt the lesson has been learned no one defeats a bear market in full descent. The appointment of a non-executive director with a track record in a major European Commercial property fund or property company would be a really addition to that board. As Bill Nowlen wrote in the IT a few years back making money from property in the long-term is not about momentum investing it is about creating above sector returns by superior approaches. The Anglo loan book will be a real challenge but I’ve no doubt we haven’t seen the last of that institution
@missarchi wrote:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0302/1224242083966.html
Tenders for Metro North to be lower due to falling costs
FRANK McDONALD, Environment Editor
FOUR TENDERS for Metro North received by the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) last Friday are likely to be substantially lower than anticipated because of an estimated 20 per cent fall in construction costs.
Why isn’t this information in the public domain; estimated is simply not good enough the costs are either estimated or a formal offer. Basing 2004 costs of €4.58 billion with inflation of 4% p.a. for 4 years a figure of €5.36bn would result that is assuming RPI and not SCS construction costs which were much higher are adopted; discount 20% from 2008 figures and the costs would be €4.469bn.
A sum of money the country simply doesn’t have to throw at a single unintegrated rail line nor does it have the €3.81bn that a 20% decline from 2004 costs would suggest.
The issuance of bland generalities has to stop and the actual consequences financially of a departing government potentially signing this off on their last day in office need to be clarified .
@publicrealm wrote:
I still think that Government should proceed to full planning stage and then hope that things will pick up after that.
I disagree on the basis of
The RPA has steadfastly refused to put a price on the Metro – arguing it would make a farce of its bidding process – but the ballpark figure has widely been reported as €]A refusal to even address outline costs on a multi-billion euro project is combined with their only justification to proceed now being reputational damage.
Lets consider Irelands reputation before the Anglo-less days and before de Metro was even Bertie’s swan song to Dublin Central; very low corporate taxes and a perception that personal income taxes or the costs of the bridge between what empolyers pay and what skilled workers will actually receive were going only one way i.e. favourably.
Lets consider Irelands reputation if public spending isn’t reigned in, higher personal taxes meaning either lower real wages and a demotivated workforce or higher employment costs. Probable increased sovereign debt costs due to ratings agencies weighing up declining employment tax revenues as FDI hits the exits and many of the best workers move abroad and spread a foreign tax base and downgrades triggering penalty rates of interest to existing holders of Government Bonds.
Lets consider the reputational damage of not delivering a project in the context of the promotors refusing to provide costs that stretch into the billions and the sovereign debt position worsening by the week combined with likely weakening demand i.e. potential rider numbers sinking by the day.
Good judgement by not proceeding is the only conclusion in 2009 but if it stacks up in a few years then hiring a team who can supply costs prior to development consent being sought so that a decision on cost benefit grounds in a rising market when soveign debt is managable and expandable!!
There won’t be any recovery for a decade unless spending is reigned in; if you raise taxes to build gold plated projects employers will go and find cheaper people elsewhere.
I am all for public transport of a high standard but now is not the time to give emmigrants a €3bn fast ticket out.
How can anyone justify a metro line from Tallaght to Dublin Airport at any time; how can 300 plus redundancies at Dublin Bus be justified to provide an over-speced metro line that won’t be delivered for another 6 plus years.
I agree you need public transport in a recession and not bus drivers on the dole to fund endless consultancy on a project for which there are no funds. Adam Smith hit the nail on the head in the Wealth of Nations it is all about the division of scarce resources and now that derivative money has been cruelly replaced by real money hard choices are required in the division of those really scarce resources and many hungry interest groups to be fed.
Also as far as i know some developers with interests in building along the route have to contribute €€€€ to construction works
I’ve no doubt if we were discussing this 2 years ago that would be true; in the current market everything is driven by cashflow and the funding position of the main banks and their reliance on short term commercial papaer has meant that they are simply not extending development finance to pay even day to day bills unless projects are more than 50% built. Development levies like this make a lot of sense in a market where there is demand and developers can raise finance those days are unfortunately not around at present.
I can also see DCC reprovisioning any sums set aside to make up for the major shortfall in business rates that will hit as large numbers of small businesses close.
Committing billions to this project in the absence of development levies and rising taxes sends out all the wrong signals. This project should be shelved until the funds are there to pay for it; that is presuming it ever stacks up.
As for Metro West, how did that like the Citywest Luas line ever get approved let alone the latter being built. Brian Cowen’s build it and they will come line on the front of the times last month was just hilarious. Almost up there with Bertie’s ‘The Boom just got Boomier’ quip.
Lets make sure the bust does end up getting lingeried into a bustier
The fantasy continues, rising taxes, cuts in services and probable public sector pay cuts accross the board; yet the metro for which there are no funds for whatsoever continues apace. Outdone only by the instruction of Buro Happold (who I recently disinstructed on an unrelated project on the basis of cost and slow service) on Metro West.
Please tell me I am going to wake up and find GDP growing at 8%, Anglo shares at €17 and Waterford Crystal owned by Sir Anthony and institutional funds.
1980 comes back and there is even less spine at the top this time. S & P are watching
If you are thinking of a hedge, don’t be tempted to go for leylandia – its a quick fix that you and your neighbours will pay for in the end.
A double row of beech would be my preferred choice, though there’s no getting around the fact that it takes time.
Laurel would be a reasonable compromise, mature plants are widely available – its possible to create an instant hedge (almost) if you want to spend the money. Its fast growing either way & will establish quickly.
@jdivision wrote:
It’s privately owned (Harry Crosbie) so think that may be out unfortunately. Would have been a most sensible idea otherwise. Too sensible by far for those doing the botching
Had heard it was one of Crosbie’s projects alright, but also read it was the DDDA, will yield to your knowledge on that one 😉
Ah well, if you ever fancy making a grand gesture to the nation Mr. Crosbie, you know what to do !
Given that we’re unlikely at this stage to ever see a new building for the Abbey against the backdrop of a site selection ‘process’ that was botched beyond belief, made worse by the nonsense that was the final decision – is there some merit in giving the grand canal theatre an actual purpose & declaring it the Abbey’s new home ?
I’m sure the internal configuration & capacity may need to be altered but perhaps this represents a viable option, given that the building will actually be completed and the site is not too bad either. I’m sure the DDDA if called upon wouldn’t be adverse to doing the state some service 😉
Any thoughts ?
@GregF wrote:
Came across this little video of some imagery of North American cities.. ie New York, Chicago etc…set to a piece of music by Ultravox.
The piece is about 30 years old, but look at all the trappings of contemporary and modern living -appartments, mono-rails, shopping malls, offices etc… Stuff we in Ireland finally somewhat attained at the end of the 20th century!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP0Psd_lu5w
So here’s to the next boom!
Sláinte!
Really enjoyed that piece although with the recent fashion swing back to 1983/4 in hair and fashion I couldn’t figure out if it is actually historic or contemporary!
Here is to the next boom which one hopes is not too far away but one feels may be just a little less construction led than the end of the last one.
I really hope that 22 years after the first one that a new and equally successful PNR can be agreed as right now Ireland along with possibly Italy is showing real immaturity in facing up that to the sad new reality that everyone is going to have to take a lot of pain to get prices back to real levels and the economy back onto a sustainable path.
€6 for a pint or a sandwich in D2 or contemporary civil service wages structures or really pointless agencies have no place at this point of the cycle and must be removed like the malignant tumours that they are. The sooner these issues are corrected the sooner Foreign Direct Investors will start to take what is a fantastic young educated and creative population for their true value and not the bloated pricing structure that they encounter in our major towns and cities.
If these issues aren’t corrected the recession in Ireland whilst abating accross the wider OECD will last longer than Japan’s in the 1990’s and worse still there is no indigenous manaufacturing sector to repatriate foreign profits from excluding possibly 10 companies.
@alonso wrote:
as for the capacity, 54000 did the job for donkeys years. Many people bemoan the fact that a lot of the people at Croker haven’t a clue what’s going on in front of them, especially in the soccer where the only decent atmosphere has been Georgia last week as the fairweathers stayed away. I can’t wait to get back to a more intimate crowd at Lansdowne.
The new lansdowne is loaded with corporate seating, many of which it could just as easily be said, have no clue at all what is going on either. There was no lack of atmosphere at Ireland v France last week, and pretty much everyone around me realised what was happening in front of them.
Webcam shows the arches being put in to place, unlike what i’m disappointed to see them resort to obvious & clunky engineering.
http://www.sisk.ie/files/sisk/admin/uploads/W2_F_Feature_Image_2052.bmp
@wearnicehats wrote:
€250million? how so?
He quoted a figure in the press release that previous Ireland / England matches had brought in 90m to the ‘local economy’, I’ve no idea how these things are measured but on that basis with 5 or so big matches annually bringing in what would seem like a more realistic 50m a go between football & rugby … obviously there’s your 250m. The figures regularly bandied about however could be nonsense & are impossible to verify.
The capacity of Lansdowne is disappointing given that rugby matches easily attract 80k these days with a couple of football qualifiers having that potential also. Contractual arrangements attached to the crazy proportion of corporate seating in the new stadium make moving to croker for the big matches a non-runner and so the ordinary punter is left in a scramble for fewer over priced seats than were available in the old Lansdowne 🙁
@hutton wrote:
Eh PVC have you seen Brenda Powers article from yesterday? Charming allusions of elder people with “mature vegetation” – classy stuff altogether – up there with Mary Ellen Synon’s and Kevin Myers’ uglier moments… It’s her who has got personal with oap objectors – clicky linky if you havent seen it before http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article5683041.ece“Mature vegetation,†according to An Bord Pleanala, also stood in the way of the plan, which hardly came as a surprise to anybody who saw those eloquent images of elderly D4 residents recoiling in horror from the scale model of the planned development, as though even the tiny replica stank of new money
The the mature vegitation remark is in fairness attributed to ABP which was further clearly seperated from the residents who were said to recoil from the scale model which was stated to stink of new money; which in comparison to the design style being quite planned in an American way and funded by Scottish Banks couldn’t have seemed to be a very new chapter in the history of Ballsbridge.
I think the article cannot be treated as one on planning but expresses a very valid sociological observation which I fully agree with; namely that South Dubliners are in comparison to other urban popultations snobs and have an air odfdisdain that is only surpassed by privately educated country folk who reside in the same place.
On the Val D’Isere remark totally true an example I would use I was at conference in Barcelona about 18 months ago with members of our various European office and we adjourned to Peurto Olympico at about 11pm when up came a hen party dressed as prison officer (Hen) and chain gang (party). The lengths the members of the Dublin office went to describe the Ballyfermot area and why it was such a surprise that these people were there was incredible.
As someone that went to one of the two mentioned schools and have a lot of freinds that went to the other I can say with certainty that the attitude she describes is very real and the way it was applied to Sean Dunne is symptomatic of the way people in D4 and more recently D6 think. Ask yourselves when you see someone in a Toyota Pick Up truck and a pin striped suit what are your thoughts?
Would I want to live opposite a scheme of the scale? No; if I owned a house close to it would I throw the kitchen sink at it? Probably
But would I descend to personal attacks on its promoter having a go to get around Dublins interpretive planning code or was Brenda Power’s article infactual or did it contain perceptions that were unfounded? No chance
I am surprised at the lack of grace from some quarters in the vindication of your stance in this decision. A developer buys two hotels at the height of a property boom applies for development consent which is subsequently turned over on foot of planning objections. Where is the need to get personal or to attack a journalist who questions the wisdom of the decision on a number of unrelated grounds. If it were me I’d simply bask in the knowledge of calling the result correctly; I am happy to say I didn’t make any predictions on this one either way for the very good reason that it was going to be ugly either in planning terms or financial terms as a first time application.
I’ve known Brenda Power very slightly for about 15 years and have always found her to be able to build a credible link between an opinion and a number of factors that at a first glance do not seem obviously linked. Her real strength is being able to maintain a good level of intellectual rigour with a very down to earth philosophy.
As for Sean Dunne I have a sneaking admiration for him; he played a key role in the construction of phase of 1 Canada Square Canary Wharf in the Reichman days. He took a few chances didn’t rest on his Luarels and built some more projects and kept trying to grow his portfolio. I hope this doesn’t ruin him as anyone who takes their holidays building homes in a township is obviously not quite as aloof from the rest of the population as their Sindo persona might suggest.
When it gets personal you don’t have an argument and there will be plenty more discussion of this site over the coming years so stick to the facts.
