admin
Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Thanks John
I have a feeling we will never agree on macro economic policy but that it is clearly time to stop the blame game and estabvlish a clear development policy going forward. No developed economy can function without a healthy construction sector but equally no construction sector can deliver secure employment if the underlying development strategies are not sustainable.
@garethace wrote:
The above piece falls quite neatly into the third stage of my sustainable model described here:
http://designcomment.blogspot.com/2009/06/multi-layered-definition-of.html
B.
I would go along with a four stage analysis in terms of the way projects have been delivered to date i.e. in the context of a well funded process from start to finish with the possible exception of stage 4 which has seen a very mixed implementation depending on whether the firm charged with taking on the responsibility regarded reputation or profit as the driver. I would further say that the four stage approach of
1. Concept / site identification
2. Funding / quantum scoping
3. Unit configuration / delivery
4. Post disposal management / tenant (or management company shareholders)is now redundant as construction has suffered from catasthrophic market failure and that a fifth layer of national market restructuring or reordering needs to be created.
Todays sindo lists two facts which are interlinked firstly government capital spend has declined from €5bn planned to c€500m if Tommy Pearlean is to be believed, secondly total construction industry (taking the widest possible measure including RIAI, SCS etc) employment has fallen from 400,000 at peak to 200,000 current and potential collapse to 100,000 at some stage in 2010 when the floor is reached.
It is easy to point the finger as 69% of Sindo readers did today at Brian Cowan or cheerleaders such as Tommy Pearlean a career lobbiest or Dick Roche a clearly populist politician who never had any strategic vision on anything other than re-election. What does that acheive for 200,000 unemployed construction workers?
What is clearly required is a fifth stage of analysis that will over a 5 year period restore employment in the construction sector to say 250,000 – 300,000 people and retrain or resettle to additional 100,000 – 150,000 workers to new sectors or countries. The failure to tackle this issue will result in structural unemployment of 200,000 to 300,000 people which comes on top of another 200,000 displaced by the global economy or poor life chances that saw them miss out on the spoils of the Celtic Tiger.
The major positives I can see on the horizon is that
1. Capital spending has been slashed i.e. capacity to borrow is not being spent on priorities relevant to a previous point of the cycle. News of this is bound to improve sentiment towards the fiscal position.
2. Manufacturing is holding up and when global corporate profitability returns to normal investment levels will increase benefiting Ireland disproportionately as per the past 20 years per capita.
3. Deflation – prices are starting to move in the right direction, further weakening iof the euro would also help greatly.
What clearly needs to happen next is that at least until the industry is restored to health that a clear shift away from developments happening because a development opportunity arose they need to happen because the projects in question deliver on the basis of a manditory set of criteria.
It is not just Ireland that has had these problems and looking at elements of the Obama stimulus plan of which very little has been implemented to date other than TARP there is a clear acknowledgement that the construction industry relationship has altered from the government consuming the scraps that the private sector didn’t want to moving centre stage in the recovery. It is notable that the stimulus package is targeted at delivering other objectives beyond and directly contrasting with an objective to simply refloat the status quo of the previous 24 years of almost uninterupted boom from 1983 – 2007.
Recovery to 2005 levels is certainly acheivable but it needs to be based on a vision containing a set of core principals which need to be agreed by the social partners to ensure that industrial unrest is absent as was the case from 1987 – 1997 i.e. the phase when high growth and low inflation were present in all but 2 years.
The principals it is felt that should underpin this process are
1. The construction industry is a key generator of wealth and should form at least 7% of GDP over a five year cycle but not exceed 20% in any given year.
2. Ireland is not a net energy exporter therefore sustainability is vital in all new build and all existing buildings with a perceived future life cycle of 25 years plus
3. Certain infrastructural investments have the potential to disproportionately deliver connectivity and reduce carbon footprint.
4. Average medium term housing demand is say 50,000 – 65,000 units per annum based on a young population structure ( revised Bacon analysis required)
5. Office demand is say 500,000 sq m p.a. (wild guess), Logisitics / light industrial demand is say 500,000
6. Retail should be tilted towards tourist led demand given the oversupply of hotels, with City & Town centre development being prioritised; user clauses of out of town retail should exclude all uses except bulky goods and one or two catering pods.
7. Construction employment will never hit 400,000 again as this level is unsutainable, re-training to new careers (to say special needs assistants) or relocation assistance should be provided to at least 100,000 people
8. Dole should be reduced from the €198 per week, Irish social welfare is the most generous in europe and a good trait of the psyche that when their was largesse the weakest were given a good standard of living; an immediate cut to €145. Training allowances and social jobs such as care assistants should be pitched at no less than €225 per week to provide a real incentive to remove what has the potential to become structural unemployment.
9. Completed Residential units in delinquent schemes held by NAMA should be transfered to a holding company to be rented out atr current market rates and not left on the market or sold at fire sale prices. The income potentially paid by the government in many cases would pay the commercial mortgages and as a result remove the deliquant status from the loan, that in turn improves the NAMA profile, reduces negative perception of government debt lowering finance costs and removes supply overhang.
10. Retro-fitting environmental features into the OPW estate, this would over a 10 year cycle be cost neutral, presuming the buildings have a life span of at least 25 years unexpired is clearly justifiable.
11.Introducing tax incentives for sustainable development projects, at a meeting with the IDA a number of years ago the IDA side were very clear that their professional services client base wanted more sustainable buildings but that construction industry were more focussed on profit. A scheme similar to the urban renewal schemes centred on rail hubs and QBCs should be implemented featuring business rates holidays, reduced stamp duty etc.
12. Construction costs have fallen dramatically as have finance costs both need to be carefully controlled by limiting development consents going forward to ensure that provision of space remains competitive.
It is clear that the massacre predicted for manufacturing has not happened, financial markets are recovering and there is the potential to correct the perception of rip off Ireland in the European Tourist market. Further positives are that the infrastructural deficit and above average household size still persist both of which will uinderpin demand.
The over-reliance on construction is the major problem at present but a clear plan needs to be established based upon a shift from site opportunity led development to a system governed by tax breaks on sustainability and competitiveness criteria.
A first start would be reverse the travel levy, using the funds garnered to date to establish festivals (why not have 15 concerts a year at Slane Castle, another 10 at Thomond and another 10 a Croker) that will fill all those empty hotel rooms and get retailers tills ringing again. As one property industry contact said this week we need to combine environmentalism with a TK Maxx approach to get people into the terminals and spending to pay for those principals. How we get them to the hotel needs to be on a shoe string for now i.e. allow taxi’s to use the port tunnel free and use the former truck lanes on the Liffey Quays to become a QBC/QTC. The days of thinking in billions are gone for now, you need to think in re-regulation and delivering stimulus not as dole but in making core industries more efficient; it is time for the rabbits to put on welding goggles and get on with creating the future.
@missarchi wrote:
It never gets everyone… We have a dangerous and destructive system because its the only way people can make money otherwise you have to buy and sell in the same market unless your a bank. Exchange rates used to be fixed now variable is standard…Everyone wanted to go high now everyone wants to go underground.
hush hush… nothing will change its institutional 😛
Do you ever read what you write before posting?
Everything has changed because institutions got it so badly wrong that they were able to buy their own debt back at 30c in the €1 such was the lack of faith in the loan books of various banks whilst the government remains dazzled in the headlights of unviable underground and other ways to increase the burden of debt on the poor private sector taxpayer who unfortunately is reliant on the global economy for job security.
Land is driven by the location economics of the bid rents that those charged with managing the factors of production decide they are worth combined with how regulators decide various uses are regulated through numerous regulations relating to environmental, employment, wealth creation, political and social order considerations.
I have no doubt that one day in the not to distant future we will find a thread titled the meaning of life on this forum
You are all design professionals go off and find some niches in the market where there is a suitable demand for developments that hit what the market wanted in the last phase but couldn’t access; the cycle will turn; allowing 20% of planning permissions last quarter to be one off houses in the context of 250,000 un sold housing units and banks with development land loans in serious distress is absolutely unbelievable. There must be an immediate ban on all one off housing permissions unless the applicants are bona fide farmers or carers looking after ex farmers or dependents of ex farmers and such permissions must be accompanied by a ten year occupany clause.
Sort out the development land negative equity and you solve the economy, and fire Dick Roche for creating the conditions for the Anglo Irish small plot development loan book creating site farmers and an army of developers who gained a small amount of equity to borrow heavily leveraged sums they were uncapable of meeting with their own resources.
I’d agree that the box house format is becoming tiresome but thought the grangegorman house was the best of the house / extension category and deserved its award …
Ulster Bank deserve huge credit for proceeding with their restoration, any chance of their example rubbing off on the ESB ?
@henno wrote:
the idea to plan italian cypress trees “to compliment the building” was an erroneous one. They add simply to detach the building from the rest of the town environ. Deciduous broad leafs should have been used.
It seems they used the buildings vague italian style as the inspiration for the Italian Cypress, wrong decision both visually & practically – they can’t stick the Irish climate and will be dead by the winter. Anyone that knows the church fronting miltown road will know what i’m talking about, 3 times they re-planted Italian cypress outside their front door before finally choosing a more suitable species, obviously money to burn !
@CologneMike wrote:
These kids attending the Montessori Creche need future prospects too. The state of degeneration facing these old buildings on Catherine Street could finish them off now. 🙁
It is a pity about this development, we had a good hard look at it and reckoned it was the sort of infill development that the city needs in order to sustain the Georgian areas. We have to work out some means to make the Georgian housing usable beyond the retention of the façades and that has to mean scaling the areas behind the streetscape. We thought this would act as proof that off street density could be increased and encourage people to look at the city centre more. I would hope they can come back with a new application.
@Seamus O’G wrote:
That proposal was clearly ignored. The public consultations about the interconnector only included the longer, more expensive, circuitous options via St. Stephen’s Green.
We’vve been discussing the reasons why St. Stephen’s Green is to be the location for the interchange for a while and, in my opinion, no coherent analysis of why this is preferable to a more central location has yet been presented.
That is a very fair point there is a significant discrepancy between the DRRTS proposal and the interconnector in terms of route length and specific alignment and there are significant cost implications of extending the route.
Dublin as a medium density urban centre in the 1970’s was very much concentrated between say the Customs House and the Four Courts East to West and Parnell Square to Stephens Green North to South.
In the 1980’s the area between Harcourt Road and Lower Mount Street emerged as the main private sector office area. In the 1990’s areas such as IFSC, Grand Canal Quay emerged, in this decade this spread to Hannover Quay and Spencer Dock.
Areas such as Parnell Square stagnated and the former office mecca of College Green turned into outer temple bar i.e. its main function changed to leisure tilted at stag weekends.
What is clear is that Stephens Green is in employment terms probably the most intensively used location in Dublin; Pearse Station serves an area that was in the 1970’s decaying but has transformed into a viable educational and office quarter. Spencer Dock is now what Wilton Place was in the 1980’s and is surrounded by hundreds of acres of heavily leveraged development land which NAMA is crying out to see properly sefved by public transport. The area around Guiness is not much different.
As logical as your idea is to link Heuston and Tara Street or Connolly directly the chance to develop large scale projects along its route would be problematic due to the fact that so many ideal sites were developed as low quality low rise apartment buildings in the past 15 years. There would also be significant heritage concerns on virtually all the route from Customs House to Christchurch (Hawkins Street Excluded).
@missarchi wrote:
The labour thing is one thing but the IDA have had a decade to train for this?
The IDA have a clear mandate buy jobs that are likely to exist in 20 years time; they have a clear cost matrix that is proportional to the likely tax take from corporations profits and employees salaries. I have no doubt no transport infrastructure project would ever meet their very strict criteria.
@missarchi wrote:
Where people trained while the port tunnel was going? It was the time…
And send people overseas…Great stream of consciousness; your point is?
@missarchi wrote:
Also the ticketing for luas is not controlled by an Irish company i.e the money?
They won it in a tender but no doubt the costs of ticketing are a minute proportion of the major inputs such as route, stations and ongoing costs such as energy, labour etc. Relevance?
@missarchi wrote:
The luas is not made in Ireland? Are the tracks made in Ireland?
Probably not, again rolling stock is a small proportion of overall cost. Relevance?
@missarchi wrote:
Was it even designed in Ireland?
Yes and that the same people are designing the Metro adds a very high risk factor to the project costs being in line with budget.
@missarchi wrote:
2 lines better than one… If they are done correctly…
And built in the right place; the region needs all projects to be ranked and prioritised in line with revised expectatations. If the proponents of this scheme are so confident what have they got to fear from a review based on sound principles of cost benefit analysis and comparison to International subvention levels including all input costs.
The land catchment a mile either side of any major rail line is going to attract a vastly disproportionate amount of commercial and residential activity. Which makes being careful with major investments all the more important in the context of a smaller investment pot.
Building a line on a different guage to the majority of the rail network and on a different ticketing system that interacts with just one existing branch line of the main rail network for the type of prices being discussed needs urgent review.
If you were talking about Miami or Hong Kong airports I’d go for economic engine as both airports punch way above their weight in terms of passengers to population; they are hub airports where a large proportion of the passengers are connecting. Dublin Airport is far from the economic engine of Ireland it is simply a medium sized European airport offering flights to Europe and a limited number of North American cities; there is not one scheduled daily flight to Asia, West Africa or Latin America.
The economic engines of which there are many are the larger FDI projects such as IBM etc that are dotted all along the M50 and services such as the fund management industry and tax driven advertsing companies such as WPP which are based in the City Centre. Given the choice of office between identical buildings in Mount Street and Dublin Airport where would you want to work?
I agree that Urban Rail decides commercial location decisions but the question is not whether urban rail creates jobs; the real question is which investment in urban rail delivers most upside, clearly that is the interconnector.
I take your point on 1950’s emmigration it wasn’t pleasant and left a lot of rural communities devistated. I would however contend that unlike the 1950’s when the choices were how far you could get away depended on how much you had for the ticket that contemporary emmigration is different. People don’t land in Liverpool anymore with a brother or cousins address and an aspiration to peel carrots in a hotel.
The Irish workforce are very well regarded in the major global centres and the types of job secured are typically professional. I have no doubt that the Celtic Tiger would not have been on the same scale unless people returned from senior positions in the US, UK, Germany etc to bring in practical experience.
@jdivision wrote:
In my opinion any report that mentions the WRC lacks any credibility
Any reference to the ultimate politically motivated elephant certainly causes concern. The point that is however well made is that rail links that aren’t integrated don’t do well as they do not provide the requisite connectivity. Frankfurt is a great example of how to do it right it has a mix of direct connections to the CC and intercity express trains that stop there. For example someone from Koln or Stuttgart can get on in their city and go direct Metro North offers nothing to the national rail network.
I can definitely see the benefit of linking Dublin airport by rail to Belfast – for Belfast people. Maybe the British government could be prevailed upon to pay for it.
Airports generate jobs, Belfast is a small regional airport which leaves the population with two choices for most destinations, transfer flight via Heathrow or go overland via Dublin. Anything that adds a population of 500,000 plus people to your catchment is a good thing as it has the potential to increase passenger loadings driving down fares or increasing profitability.
Ireland did not benefit one bit from decades of emigration
Ireland benefitted massively from Emmigration as the financial resources, skills and ideas brought back to Country by returning emmigrants were crucial to the economic turnaround in the 1990’s. Living in Boston, London or Hong Kong is problem in what respect?
Projects like Metro are vital for our economic progress. The project itself will provide major employment for the building sector while also giving some of the farthest reaches of Dublin and the surrounding counties a quick rail link to the city
A lot of the jobs on the project will be highly specialist and will be undertaken by people from overseas; in the case of the port tunnel a large proportion of the workers were brought in because there is no tunneling industry. How many people will be directly employed and of that number how many will be unemployed construction workers. €100,000 a job done via the IDA where the average job lasts 10 -20 years or similar amounts in post graduate training targetting specific industries are the only sustainable ways to buy the country out of an unemployment in the medium to long term.
The guy is also getting very carried away with his multiple Counties; I know Fingal is now an independent constituency but that is stretching it way too far. The catchment is far to small for the price tag. It may be the most direct way from Stephens Green to Swords in linear terms but the subsidy required is simply not sustainable; the latest S & P downgrade means perception needs to be tight fiscal control.
I am not going to respond to Marmajam again as always he waffles on with bland generalities such as linking bonds and solving unemployment without a rats as to how either operates. I will however say 3 things
One; I will not continue to remind of the economic reality there is enough economic analysis the most recent downgrade of soveriegn debt by Standard and Poors today. However if prudent public finances finally arrive this will probably mark the floor of negative sentiment towards what is a truely dreadful fiscal position. Talk of white elephants doesn’t assist international perception of a balooning deficit.
Two – the infrastructure bond would be subordinate debt to ordinary NTMA debt and if a bond were likely to default which it isn’t but if it were the government would if they were smart pay senior debt and put infrastructure bonds for completed projects to one side so as to protect their ability to raise even more senior debt; subordinate is junk in the medium term if things go wrong. The premium for secondary debt would be at least 150 bp in a good market so taking that senior debt at at about 530 bp that gives a minimum interest rate of 6.80% or €136m a year to fund without repaying the capital that is assuming the RPA actually don’t over-run as per usual. I can think of better uses for an annual liability of €136m in the context of the scarcity of money.
Three – the unemployment in the construction industry is in all reality structural; there was an army assembled to deliver 100,000 resi units a year, that demand won’t be around for a decade if again ever. People need to emmigrate, Brian Lennihan senior should have been celebrated for that statement in the 1980’s and not pilloried. You never know they might even get somewhere where a metro link to the airport stacks up.
If the public finances are brought under control Ireland Inc has a great future, well educated people with an edge for deals only problem is is if you spend scarce spend money on infrastructure and not cutting edge education the whole attraction of paying one of the highest salary bases in the World (deservidly so at present education levels) evaporates. Its all about patience globally things are levelling out.
@GregF wrote:
The whole multi-billion euro Metro proposal should be put on hold since the country is allegedly bankrupt and the tax payer burdened with enough debt.
More interesting has been the complete wipe out of the greens; instead of pushing unviable metro’s in the Times Eammon Ryan would have been far better stopping other white elephants such as the Carlow to Waterford Dual Carriageway and Western Rail corridor.
Thankfully the global picture looks a lot better of late and a recovery is coming next year, but in an economy that is growing at any less than 8% a year this project is decades away from viabilitiy.
TT
I knew that if I thought you were serious I’d not have said it!
@tommyt wrote:
Doesn’t traitor’s gate commerorate the Boer War?
Exactly the type of langauge used in the 1960’s to justify the destruction of a lot of fine buildings as they were ‘colonial relics’ according to the mohair suit brigade.
Regardless of age it is a fine piece of work in classical style that could hold its own anywhere in Europe but these arches are rarely as well executed due to the exceptional quality of craftsmenship and perfect symmetry to its original setting.
I note David Slattery was the conservation consultant to the RPA, he doesn’t really have a very long track record in non-development situations or non-profits.
@Devin wrote:
Date not given, but it looks to me to be about 1890-1910.
Looks like it, many of the trees siginificantly pre-date the green’s formal layout in 1880.
@murrmurr wrote:
Good documentary. I even saw my late grandfather on top of the building during construction. He was working on the air ventilation system As ever, reaching for a cigarette 😛
lovely thing to have 🙂
@GrahamH wrote:
Ah yes, a quirky quick shot from the the opening sequence to the 1994? Eurovision Song Contest? () where each floor illuminates as yer man rises. Still not sure how that was achieved so perfectly.
Thought you might come back on that one 😉 at least i’m not the only sad-o ’round here! 🙂 not a clue how they managed it either.
@lostexectation wrote:
the light/dark flip isn’t something i never really noticed before, I guess its diminished a bit by the reflective glass covering, the footage they show after is of liberty hall with a random amount of its windows lit up, rather then all of them maybe there should be one night a year where buildings leave all their lights on??
ask and you shall receive ]http://www.webeireann.com/archiseek/liberty_hall_night.jpg[/IMG]
LVMH to take stake in Bono-backed ethical fashion brand
The French luxury goods group is to take a stake in Edun, the ethical fashion brand founded by Bono and his wifeTimes Online
LVMH, the French luxury goods group, is to take a stake in Edun, the ecological and ethical fashion brand founded by Irish singer Bono and his wife, Ali Hewson.Speaking at LVMH’s annual shareholders’ meeting in Paris, the group’s chief executive, Bernard Arnault, said Edun will sit alongside the company’s other fashion brands such as Celine, Kenzo, Marc Jacobs and Louis Vuitton. He did not specify the size of the stake or give any financial details.
Launched in 2005 by Bono and Mrs Hewson, Edun sells T-shirts and dresses in organic cotton made in countries such a India, Peru, Uganda, Kenya and Lesotho.
The company says on its website it aims to encourage sustainable employment in developing regions, particularly Africa. Bono, whose real name is Paul Hewson, is famous for fronting the band U2 and for his extensive campaigning for African humanitarian causes, which has led to three Nobel Peace Prize nominations.As he announced the Edun deal, Mr Arnault said trading in April at LVMH was broadly in line with the level seen during the first quarter, with a slight improvement in wines and spirits
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article6288788.ece
Few have escaped in the last 18 months even some of the most risk averse funds have seen performances of -30% p.a.
Will this project happen in the current climate?
Not unless the syndicate empty their matresses
Thanks Paddy, got a chance to watch it there, very nicely put together and to be fair included much more than the worthy comment of Shane O’Toole.
You don’t often see a shot of the original from the north side –
It was such a simple structure to start with that any alteration no matter how insignificant would always impact heavily, and likely adversely. What stands today bears little relation to the original, such a shame it was tampered with and routinely neglected thereafter.
(Hope you don’t mind the screen grab Paddy.)
@The Indo – I’m hoping the ‘transport consultant’ is aware that the dart exists wrote:
and provide the first north-south transport corridor through Dublin
So the north south DART line has been wiped off the map then ? Whenever the inevitable decision is made to extend metro north 20 years from now and plough up the green yet again, it should of course head west.
