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@marmajam wrote:
so you’ve gone from asserting that every ‘tube’ system uses the 3rd rail to struggling to find a few examples in weird foreign Timbucktoos that still use it
That’s a bit of a climbdown…….
what a chancer you are.
New York and Chicago equate timbuktu which you are even unable to spell.
There was a great movie made in the late 1980’s called Planes, Trains and Automobiles
I can just picture you as John Goodman complete with jam stains on paisley patterned polyester pyjamas
I wouldn’t really compare the Grafton Arcade to this for three reasons;
1. Values; there was a lot more money on the table in Grafton Street, given the way retail was valued the entrance space lost was worth far too much money, not to mention M & S being unable to expand in any other direction. Not saying this part of Cork is cheap, but at 2% yields that part of Dublin wasn’t far off 5th Avenue levels at that time!
2. Use; the grafton Arcade featured a number of retailers who would never have renewed their leases as their were no agglomeration benefits for the mishmash of retailers who made a big mistake going there in the first place. If this recession has tought me anything it is that excluding food / craft (only in tourist meccas) use; that retail shopping centres and arcades where the units are all zone A space don’t work as service charges required to run them are disproportionate to the net rents received from an investor point of view, assuming the retailer only looks at occupancy cost and not whether its rent, rates or service charges; the costs get deducted from the rental level they are prepared to pay. However if you combine very small units as in this case and fill them with complimentary uses then you acheive a multiple minimum rent premium.
3. Aestetics, Grafton Arcade was a tired 1970’s mall with no real natural light, this in contrast is a period arcade in the vein of Paris or a less grand version of the Burlington Arcade at the end of Cork Street W1 near Old Bond Street London.
Tough times at present but if this could survive this cycle it has a Ballymaloe inspired arcade written all over it. 😀
@garethace wrote:
One comment on the Prime Time program of 30th April 2009 did strike me as odd. If indeed we do take the €80-90 billion of toxic assets from the six Irish banking institutions . . . as Sunday Business Post journalist said, we leave only 30% of the Irish banks on the stock market to trade. It makes me beg the question, what are we doing in Ireland other than property? If such a large proportion of what an Irish bank does is entirely property related, then why are they so rubbish at it?
The big 3 were very good at property banking and built significant market share in the UK and syndicated European commercial transactions many of which the only connection to Ireland was the bank.
Property finance was quite simple there were two types of transaction small transactions; where the underwriting department of Bank A after the necessary checks lends money to the borrower at say 6.50% they transfer the debt to the securities department to be packaged up into corporate bonds and sold at a lower yield of say 5.25% the bank gets to collect 1.25% in return for collecting the payments.
In the case of larger transactions the corporate or investment divisions arranged finance in smaller chunks after lending a large sum of say €200m to say 5 other banks again locking in a margin. The problem on these were that many of the banks stopped syndicating the majority of these loans and at the wrong point in the cycle held onto too high a proportion. I’d not be worried about the prime commercial lending that was done as a lot of the assets will recover within 2-5 years, it is the domestic development land that will need greater scrutiny.
The problem on the smaller transactions was that after concerns were raised that a lot of securities were not the quality they were originally assumed to be the entire system froze up. The Irish banks can’t be blamed for this it was simply a systemic risk that not many people saw. The problem that this freezing created was that banks had already provided loan offers on many ongoing transactions which they were not in a position to back out of as in many cases they had cross lent to the developer building the scheme which would have caused those loans to default. Selling securitised debt that up to that point had involvced simple assumptions on a single variable i.e. price or margin; now hedge funds are pretty much the only buyers and at rates involving much less than the face value of the lending.
Did people see this coming?
Not many, people probably thought a lot of poor quality instruments were over-priced but few saw the stampede out of quality assets as well as deliquent debt. Unfortunately every bubble is built on a set of assumptions that involve people in senior position convincing themselves that this time it is somehow different. It never is the same emotions drive markets fear and greed; with fear exposing the greedy.
Will securisation return?
Probably not anytime soon but when the quality of the debt on the banks balance sheets is fully assessed the quality of what would have been securitised will determine the rates at which the banks can raise finance from the markets.
@garethace wrote:
Sometimes I think I would be better off taking the first Ryan Air flight out of here, and never coming back.
It might do you some good to do a couple of years in the US or Hong Kong or China, you can always go back with frsh ideas and experience. No doubt the banks will be in better shape and projects moving again.
I think it is off Leinster Square opposite McDonalds in the Swan Centre, go to the top of the road and turn left
Deidre Kelly’s book on Rathmines is in the library if it isn’t in that there is a good chance it never existed.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
several stops have potential for densification: griffith ave has the dcu fields adjacent (10 acres?), northwood /ikea is grenfield, also lissenhall and belinstown north ofd swords..
Takes 10 acres build 65 units per acre as you need decent open space and you get 650 units, take Northwood it can be developed but it is more comparable to area’s such as Portmarnock station or Clondlakin Castle it is not an area you would select other than its proximity to this proposed routing by virtue of it connecting Ballymun and the airport; Both Lissenhall much of which is adjacent to a protected habitat and Bellinstown are within 2 linear kilometres of an existing rail line.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
then you have an interchange stop at Drumcondra, a large hospital, a university, 2 park and rides that could be future towns..
Current levels of usage at Drumcondra are minimal, the hospital is within 10 minutes walk of the rail station at Drumcondra and the park and ride’s could be delivered without Metro once the interconnector is built.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
and finally the airport and city centre..
The airport does need a link to the City Centre but this is not the only way to do it. Once interconnector is built and signalling improved capacity on the northern line could be increased to
0800 Drogheda
0802 Airport
0804 Howth
0806 Malahide
0808 Airport
0810 Howth or MalahideOr 24 trains per hour
0815 Drogheda or a five minute gap between the last Dart and first outer commuter train that doesn’t stop. With that level of frequency would every train need to stop at every Dart Station i.e. Airport trains could skip say Harmonstown, Howth Trains could skip say Kilbarrick and Malahide trains could skip say Killester or you could simply add 2 minutes to outer commuter trips as no doubt the additional number of City Centre Stations would lead to faster exit times than at say Pearse or Tara St at present.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
i don’t follow the logic that it would be unbalancing for the city to have one large capacity public transport corridor built before others. One of them has to be first after all..
I could have been a little clearer on this point; the Interconnector will provide 5 development corridors,
Greystones – a bit mined out but there is some potential
Adamstown – Serious potential virtually all the way from Kilmainham to Adamstown
Maynooth/Pace – Serious potential
Malahide/Howth – Serious potential along Northern Fringe
Heuston/ North Wall – Serious potentialThis would enable serious densities to be created on each of five corridors; there would be more than enough development land to service future housing demand for the next 20 years at future construction levels of say 40,000 units per year or almost twice current levels.
@Frank Taylor wrote:
The CBA for the metro should not be taken on its own but in conjunction with the other projects such as interconnector. Colm McCarthy made this point in an ESRI report recently.
In the current climate everything has to be taken on its merits particularly when at a cost of €2bn it delivers about 25% the development potential of another proposal. When in 10 years half the development potential from the other 5 corridors is developed then press the button on this if 8 Darts an hour to the airport aren’t sufficient capacity
@marmajam wrote:
PVCKing wrote:
“I’ve no doubt that your heart is in the right place “But with a string of comments like:
“build a white elephant that services 4 square miles of city centre, 8 square miles of urban sprawl, 2 square miles of airport / ancillary carpark and 6 sq miles of suburban sprawl and a town centre (Swords)”
This is completely true, if the proposed route is analysed in line with International standards it provides a single commuter town Swords, an Airport, a moderately sized outer suburban planned town Ballymun before reaching an apprpriate density at the Mater hospital which is 30 minuntes walk from the end of the route at Stephens Green. The population / work density simply doesn’t exist to justify a €2bn expenditure.
@marmajam wrote:
“Metro North was chosen on the basis of three facts firstly it ran slap bang down the middle of the then Taoiseach’s constituency”
I have no doubt that without Bertie Ahern’s support this project would never have reached the agenda. That is real politik, his consituents complained he let them down on not supplying Luas and he put metro firmly onto the agenda to win votes. That was possible in the period up to the 2007 election as no-one looked at the cost of anything. Even the Western Rail corridor was deemed viable.
@marmajam wrote:
“Metro symbolises all that was wrong with the Celtic Tiger mind set”
Cost estimates for this project fluctuated between €2bn and €5bn until very recently, the scoping for this proposed project was predicated on assumptions of indefinite fiscal surpluses and unlimited demand for residential property. Those days are sadly gone, assessment needs to be in line with much stricter standards.
@marmajam wrote:
“But beyond doing a circle under the National monument it destroys where does it go?”
I’ve no doubt PeeVeeCee’s heart is in the wrong place.
This comment was in relation to the decision to build a turnback loop under St Stephens Green; if this were to be a truely intergrated project it would have used the same rolling stock as Dart and enhanced routing options. Beyond the Green Line which save for the last mile or so is segregated all serious rail in the Dublin region is broad gauge; there will be if the Kildare line is electrified to Adamstown be roughly 35 miles of electrified rail, with the Maynooth line capacity greatly enhanced by freeing up the loopline that is post interconnector 50 plus miles of high capacity rail. Instead you get a turnback loop.
@marmajam wrote:
“The Green Luas line cost what €325m, this project would cost €2bn if on target; similar length multiple of costs.”
PeeVeeCee, with 4 times the capacity, faster speeds, connectivity to all other transport modes in Dublin, as well as various startegic centres how is MN comparable to the LUAS green line?I have no doubt it would have 4 times the capacity between Swords and Stephens Green than a Luas would have, however there is nowhere near the demand for four times the capacity that a Luas would have on the route. You provide transport to satisfy passenger demand and the demand for four times Luas annual loadings simply does not exist and never will exist if the city is to be developed in even distribution. It would be like building an 8 lane motorway to Galway or building 3 parrellel motorway / dual carriagways in Meath.
Lets turn to marmajam’s analysis of the economy i.e. how this is going to paid for or not once the hard choices are to be made.
We’ll be alright
You forgot to end it with the word Jack, taxpayers are far from happy as Larry just now.
Interest rates are 5%
Complete bullshit as well you know bond rates were c5.60% on ten year debt, the more that gets borrowed the higher the costs get.
Your mother shops in a skip
Whether you use text speak or grammatically correct language, I will not be responding as unlike you I have a life and don’t spend time arguing for the sake of it.
If this project gets built and the Interconnector doesn’t it will be the greatest catasthrophe in Irish transport decision making since granting a private concession to NTR in 1987 to run the Westlink. If it gets built along with the interconnector it will have been a very poor use of scarce resouces at the wrong point in the cycle.
For anyone to say that the route loadings exist to sustain this is either biased or mad or to say that the development potential of the route is going to be unlocked in mature private housing estates is again either biased or mad.
But again anyone that anwers a question with a comment like
Your mother shops in a skip
is simply an uncivilised idiot
@aj wrote:
the steel is very visible from the dart. its only to be a pretty impressive fram when its up!
The bulk of this thing will be massive, and not in a good way. Leaving dublin port on a ferry during the week, the lift shaft alone is already the most significant structure visible when looking back towards the city.
johnglas wrote:Nice]What are you talking about johnglas, sure its like entering a Scott Tallon Walker dream world, no doubt a utopian wonder for the architects…
suicide inducing for the rest of humanity.
@marmajam wrote:
The Green LUAS line actually did not connect with any other rail lines. Yet has been a success beyond expectation. A subvention was set aside for LUAS but was not needed it has actually generated an operating profit.
This has been the worldwide experience. There is a very big demand for good quality rail public transport.When the CBAs are done for a project like LUAS or MN, they have to be on the conservative side in terms of predicted usage. Certainly not based on a once in 50/100 years spike in growth. You’d be laughed out of it.
There is a constituency against gov investment in public transport.
The Green Luas line cost what €325m, this project would cost €2bn if on target; similar length multiple of costs.
It goes to the biggest airport in the country, the main shopping areas in Dublin, Two of the country’s biggest universities, DCU and Trinity, also not too far from DIT(the biggest thirld level institute in the country), It stops at the rotunda and Mater hospitals and terminates in the biggest town in the country.
“IT CONNECTS WITH NOTHING”
PVC, it connects with every other line on the Dublin network Dart, Luas, Metro and Bus
Luas: green line (at Stephen’s Green) Red Line (at O’Connell Street/ Abbey Street) and Lucan line at Trinity/Westmoreland Street)
DART: Line A at Drumcondra and Line B at Stephen’s Green
Metro West at Dardistown
I’ve no doubt that your heart is in the right place but would offer there is a forum on this site for most of what you describe above it’s called Unbuilt Ireland http://ireland.archiseek.com/unbuilt_ireland/ it is littered with great ideas each of which has a tragic story as to why it didn’t happen
There would be an interchange with Luas lines Red and more pertinently Green, it does not however offer a direct connection to the desinations of either nor does it increase the capacity of either.
Dart line A Drumcoundra is a diesel service that save a few services goes as far as Barrow Street so one must change again to take DART
Dart Line B again Unbuilt Ireland but the most important transport project in the State
As I have advocated from day 1; park all projects until costs are quantified and rank them in light of the prevailing economic conditions.
I’m not saying that this project couldn’t be made viable but what I am saying is that at current passenger numbers at Dublin Airport, Current densities on the line and current construction levels this project must rank below the Interconnector that gives the Darts you describe above. The economy would also need to rebound like Goldman Sachs revenues did today to make this even worthy of describing as a possibility let alone a probability if sound fiscal principles are to be followed.
@marmajam wrote:
Incorrect again
What economic circumstances are you referring to? 2 CBAs were done for MN. They were naturally predicated on historical rates of growth not the ‘celtic tiger’ growth.
Where did you source that information about ticketing and the CBAs PVC.
Did you make it up?
Post the growth predications……. you can’t they’d look like an Anglo annual report from 2005
Passenger arrives at Museum and wants to buy a ticket to Glenageary, explain the process….
@marmajam wrote:
the gauge has nothing to do with the classification of a rail system.
The gauge is the ‘standard international rail gauge’ used by approx 60% of trains worldwide.LUAS is classified as ‘Light Rail’
and the METRO will be classified as ‘Light Metro’ because it will be a segregated line with a much higher capacity than LUAS.
London Transport cannot be compared with MN in Dublin since most of the infrastructure was built many decades ago – even as early as 1847. And as it happens there is an unresolved debate at the moment about the huge cost of necessary upgrading costing billions.
more spoofing from PeeVeeCee.
But beyond doing a circle under the National monument it destroys where does it go?
It connects with nothing it an aborted cost of what €200m but thankfully not the €2bn that some quarters wish to waste as a false stimulus –
And who put the tender documents together and scoped the project?
The RPA have never done this before.
The Mitsui project was on the table and was rejected by this government when they came to office in 1997; they could alternatively have head hunted an entire team to run this project but what did they do? they got the people who made a mess of Luas to scope and put out to tender a project multiply larger than anything they had ever done and judging by the Metro West spec clearly didn’t understand.
No independent person would have done a scoping exercise that made no connection with Dart such a feeble connection with the national rail network.
@marmajam wrote:
one or two other gaffes:
Metro North is not a LUAS line.
LUAS has a capacity of 5,000 pph per directionMN wil have a capacity of 20,000 pph per direction.
You are getting yourself tripped up; you claim that it is not a luas line but yet in the same post you say that it is the same gauge as Luas and the Metro West project that is even less viable than Metro North.
It is not intergrated because instead of designing connection it to Luas they designed a turnback loop.
It is incapable of enhancing any of the existing route capacities.
@marmajam wrote:
A strategic public transport project like MN is not decided on the narrow operating profit criteria you assert.
other than Hong Kong and Singapore there is no major public tranport system in the world that pays for itself through operating revenue.
A minimal level of operating subvention would be acceptable; for example the 1 billion annual passenger numbers on London Underground deliver roughly £2.2bn in revenues, the operational costs of the system have hovered in a 5% range plus or minus of passenger revenues in recent years. That implies a worst case scenario of a c£110m subvention on revenues of c£2.2bn or an operating loss of up to 11p per passenger journey.
Metro North’s interest bill alone will be €110m p.a. and with 25m passengers that comes to €4.40 per passenger. That is 34 times the London subvention simply unaffordable at the present time.
Viability is key and you beyond saying “We’ll be alright” have given no credible indication odf how this is to be paid for, or why you would want to subsidise twice the total cost per passenger in London just to clear interest on this project?
Only if public finances are properly managed, simultaneously granting the Interconnector as a 51 mile project and binning the 12 mile Metro North project both with similar costs would send out a very positive signal of a government that is prioritising needs.
Why would one buy Irish Bonds if loss making projects like this is how they would be spent?
What is incorrect
The deficit for 2009 will be €15bn
2010 estimated at €10bnhttp://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/07/wake-up-calls-for-irish-government.html
With that backdrop there is no money for a vanity project such as Metro North
You’ll be well able to deal with queries below then
In any event everything is academic as long as Metro North is undermined by the following no longer being true
The Government was still running €7bn surpluses,
Government debt was still less than 30% of GDP;
Government bond rates were still within 0.05% or 5 basis points of German bond rates,
Unemploment was still less 5%.What is going to pay for it?
How do you redevelop nimby zones like the those contained within the link below and this type of development density is entirely typical of most of the route for this project.
http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=bal…%209,%20DUBLIN
Wrong project even if there were funds around – doubling capacity by building the interconnector is the only large scale underground project that stacks up. You obviously prefer to champion a project that in so many ways the Metro symbolises all that was wrong with the Celtic Tiger mind set.
1. We are going to start from scratch – it will be new and shiny
2. We are not going to make it compatable with any existing network
3. We are going to borrow the entire cost
4. We are going to hire a team who have never done a similar project before
5. We are going to ensure it is on a stand alone ticketing system
6. We are going to make assumptions that economic circumstances will never changeLooks from the map that it isn’t really metro county
It is the one in Grantchester?
your mother does her shopping in a skip
I’ve not heard Ben’s boutique referred to as a skip before.
Just out of interest what do you do for a living?
Are you ever going to address financial reality or go more and more personal; I get paid to deal with idiots like you who can’t move beyond a single technical detail and miss numerous counter clauses that supercede their narrow view.
