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@johnglas wrote:

PS Is Fitzwilliam public or private …?

Its private John. As simple as it should be, though what was likely a double line around the perimeter of Fitzwilliam is nearing its end aesthetically.

http://www.howbertandmays.ie/projects_civicPublic.htm

@johnglas wrote:

…but anything that can rid us of the mindset of (a) municipal planting and (b) Schwarzian overkill-zany would be welcome.

I wasn’t suggesting either for Merrion Square but will happily defend Swarthz’s Grand Canal Square as the necessary anti-dote to the hectares of chinese granite and general car park evoking banality that has* passed as ‘landscape design’ for your average Irish public space.

*optimism on my part.

I wouldn’t take such a negative view;you’d go along way to see a better masterplan than
Adamstown from greenfield to complete community.

Major issue down there is transport or more relevantly lack of train/tram and the difficulty of getting tram to the location given the options are Ringsend Village with its narrow streets and listed buildings or via the Eastlink which is already congested.

There are better sites to develop in the short term but a little land take reservation in plans from here on in and the development frontier will arrive in due course but even from
the bottle site they are a very long way down.

Bank of Ireland should buy the chimneys and paint them in Leinster colours

@GrahamH wrote:

The air of anti-climax upon arriving in the centre of the park is palpable, encountering a bizarre cliff face-like enclosure focused on two hideous suburban evergreen trees surrounded by a random array of municipal flowerbeds. Above all at this point, it is the sense of drudgery at having to trek along the boring walk to the other side of this dismal oval that is so dispiriting, and the undoubted feeling of most visitors that they must again negotiate the same pointless Alice in Wonderland-like labyrinth of bushy corridors to escape out the other side. Having to walk along a rather pointless path-to-nowhere, right in front of seated persons who have nothing else to look at, is similarly awkward.

The little ‘theme’ gardens thrown in the mix, ranging from bizarre thickets of cherry blossoms, to clusters of weeping birches, to the downright weird expanses of grass surrounded by dense shrubbery that nobody wants to use or even look at for the 360 days of the year that the sun doesn’t shine, are at best curious, but ultimately confusing, arbitrary, and serve no real function. Frank is also right that the setted edging is awful. It would probably look well in a rustic garden, but in an urban context, and particularly a Dublin context, the setts’ misuse is so rawly apparent. It jarrs. The historic lamps are fun in their current context, and a decent idea in the absence of a city museum, so I wouldn’t take away from that (with any chance to fondle an historic lamp in a shielded setting naturally being a plus). But in the context of a restored park, they would of course by unsuitable. But even at present, there is little or no information about them, they are of course falling apart and unoperational, and the mismatching of many of the heads and columns borders on the farcial.

I’d wholeheartedly support any ambitious plan to restore Merrion Square to its original design, or a design appropriate to the late 18th century. This would serve as a major attraction in the south Georgian core, where currently there is actually no obvious amenity space to frequent, and in that I would include the current park. It is uninviting and unpleasant. By contrast, an open and transparent park, that read as part of the greater urban ensemble of Merrion Square would be absolutely spectacular. Fine gravelled paths, delicate water features, and simple, unpretentious ponds or small lakes with cut stone edging and matching seating would do wonders for the square as a whole, while a double line of trees around the perimeter with views beyond from both sides would transform the square beyond recognition. Above all, the cultural and government quarter across the road would be finally both served and appropriately addressed. When one considers the utter shambles of this side of the park at present, with hacked out railings, the completely random and invasive Defence Forces memorial, the dense shrubbery, car parking, and the ridiculous platform behind the (compromised) Rutland Fountain, there is simply no contest. It needs to be done, and done properly or not at all.

Nicely put Graham.
The existing park is a dreadful hotch potch of random planting with the worst excesses of 1980’s landscape interventions thrown in. Its haphazard layout stands in stark contrast to the square it seeks to turn its back on & actually manages to diminish the set piece that is Merrion Square.

Really there is little that warrants saving, with just the odd semi-mature tree, at this point the lot should be raised to the ground.

I think another poster on the Stephen’s Green thread favoured reinstating both the green & merrion square as vast open expanses, with almost uninterrupted views of their surrounds. While I would strongly disagree with same for Stephen’s Green, such an approach on Merrion Square would be warranted, given that the square stands largely intact and would benefit massively if the ruddy mis-match at its core was transformed in to a largely transparent, minimalist, landscape set-piece.

Indeed, it is only really possible to appreciate the scale & spectre of the square from its centre.

@GrahamH wrote:

I think what notjim means, Peter, is that the shape of the tower is by its nature is sculptural. It doesn’t directly compare with the STW control tower insofar as the water tower wasn’t so consciously designed.

Ah yes, point taken gentlemen ]
What, for the water tower is logical for the control tower is sculptural.
[/QUOTE]

But the basic outline, ‘the envelope’ to be all farty about it, which clearly in the case of the water tower is dictated by function, and not just some sort of architectural skin, could be just that in the case of an atc, with obvious necessity for an internal supporting structure. We need not have just a box, on a pole.

@alonso wrote:

what about this beauty?

my second favourite alonso 🙂

Not familiar with the Drogheda one myself Graham … I think its the seamless outline of the silogue tower and its symmetry that makes it, the setting sun has great fun with it.

Am I right in thinking that the control box visible today atop Fitzgerald’s old terminal was an add on, with the sleek original visible below appropriately capping his masterpiece ??

@jimg wrote:

Only if you’d share in the glee of seeing a country burdening at least 2 generations with a huge tax burden to meet bond repayments..

The position in reality is that the Government had two choices either let the main banks collapse or intervene in some form, the position with the Irish banks was in no way unique; this was a choice made in the US, UK amongst others. You are totally right there is going to be a lot of pain whatever method of stabilisation is selected be it bond insurance, debt transfer, capital injection or collapse in the corporate and private pension structures caused by the loss of the personal and corporate deposit base by letting the banks fail. Not a pleasant picture whatever way you analyse it.

@jimg wrote:

The picture fills me with dread; a combined bank, property portfolio manager, property development and marketing company and property management company all funded from future tax revenue. Run by mostly the same or similar people who got the country into the position it is in. What gives anyone any confidence that a all powerful public organisation can magic tens of billions out of thin air? NAMA will make the HSE look like an impressively run organisation..

You are totally correct if the same attitude that ran the Anglo-Saxon model onto the rocks; which you assert is combined with local possibly negative nuances and if that remains unaltered; then you are probably very right to be scared. There has to be real reform and an acceptance that a model that both respects and can adapt to global economic movements is created.

The model however if it is sufficiently long term in its view and mandate then in can create significant value from where we are now. I agree that if the changes in personnel and mindset are not made then it is doomed to failure before it has commenced. Conversely it is a great opportunity to use market conditions as the only solvent player in the market to exercise their position of power to create long term value.

@jimg wrote:

Apart from the initial guarantee, the Irish government is doing the exact opposite of what the Swedes did. That’s a story they should have studied well but obviously haven’t.

I studied the Swedish model as part of the disaster myopia model at college; I agree that what the Swedes did worked in a very impressive timeframe but do not agree that the underlying causes were beyond localised property bubbles sufficiently comparable. The Irish real estate sector is infinitely larger as a share of GDP, a lot of the assets are geographically more diversified. Demographically Ireland has a much more positive position in terms of real estate demand domestically due to the much more favourable household formation patterns than the Swedes had at that time.

KB shares your concerns on the people that if past trends in government recruitment are selected would be involved; I am too remote to comment on that with any real credibility but I have no doubt that if the following happened it would be a great opportunity.

1. Non-performing debt bought at realistic prices

2. Government Investment made in banks via preference stock at say 250bps above bund to bridge the gap between market value and ‘notional mid-term value’ (they take the hit on frothy market lending decisions)

3. Assets transfered to a team with development / investment management expertise

4. Planned development of the most viable parts of the development portfolio to where appropriate rip up existing planning consents and rework in the context of supply having more purchasing power and being more discriminating

5. Select JV partners to carry out or complete the projects on a PRE-DEFINED profit share basis. In some areas it would be better to do this and assume a nil land value than wait for the private sector to even bear the finance costs on a nominal; access to a government guarantee scheme for construction costs would ensure that any recovery is not limited to just Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick.

6. Supply that cannot be sold at ‘mid term fair value’ to be put into specialist invetment funds covering retail, business space and residential

7. When mid term fair values are reached fund units sold to Irish private and International institutional and sovereign wealth investors.

All academic in the absence of business culture changes but if executed in a safe and secure way then this could kick start the construction sector, prevent a free for all in development land markets and allow banks to capitalise on rising values in the UK and other International markets taking performing loans away from what should primarily be a domestic project which would dramatically reduce the scale of the Nama project.

@garethace wrote:

In some ways the NAMA process will be like floating Russia’s national oil industry assets into a new private economy. We all know how that turned out. In other ways the NAMA project, will be the opposite. It will be about placing assets into some national hold all.

Other than Liam Lawlor I doubt any of us would ever be able to adopt the Russian model culturally and in terms of governmental infrastructure we are simply too different.

Thankfully unlike Russia there is also the existance of a large, (over an economic cycle) solvent and educated middle class which comprises the majority of the population.

The key will be identifying what demand the demographic position can produce over a series of cycles and maximising value from what already exists to facilitate that process.

It is not rocket science to

1.Identify demand,

2.Complete half built units for the two years and rentalise where sales are not acheivable

3.Best placed units from the extensive landbank over the next three thereafter.

4. Have developments adjoining key infrastructure projects such as interconnector, Northern Line, Adamstown ready for delivery to coincide with the project.

The only way to realise the full value of NAMA will be to trade out of the postion over a 15 – 20 year timeframe. The sooner International markets see a detailed action plan the sooner the spread between NTMA bonds and Bund will shrink to the 50bps target and thereafter below; clearly that is something all want to see – throwing assets into a hold all to rot will not solve anything; conversely NAMA should

1. Hire senior investment and construction managers to repair the knowledge deficit as a lot of developers will be doing other things in the future

2. Immediately investing in completion of projects that have a viability taken on a land value of zero and renting those units out into the medium term until values recover or rental values rise year on year to produce an investment yield that creates value exceeding the total of all input prices and the return produced over the period by the risk free investment i.e. government bonds.

3. Extending finance to developers in Joint Ventures to develop schemes where demand clearly exists and where the land value’s NAMA paid the bank can be exceeded allowing a fair margin for both parties to receive a return to cover profit for the JV partner and a profit to be set against losses for NAMA on less viable projects.

@garethace wrote:

There are a number of the Zoe architects and engineers out of work currently who would be useful people to talk to. I was only there for two years myself, but their way of handling the administration work load was clever in many ways.

In 1933 FDR declared a ‘Bank Holiday’ and closed all the banks for an audit by federal regulators and a number were closed down and the assets transferred to banks that were deemed strong enough to withstand the headwinds of the time.

Economists whilst acknowledging that this was the only course of action made one negative observation of this process; namely the ‘Knoweldge deficit’ which was created by breaking the direct linkage between the portfolio and the people managing the portfolio who better than anyone knew its strengths and weaknesses.

In the 1930’s case it was knowledge of the borrowers and who could be trusted and who couldn’t; whilst not saying there is more than a general principle there may be an angle in recruiting some of the more senior project and development managers from some of the larger firms so that their site specific knowledge can be retained. Coming fresh to any portfolio it takes time to develop a feel for the location specific challenges and opportunities.

I do think we have heard enough about Zoe developments; it was a phase that was a significant catalyst in the mid 1990’s. What is required is to get a strategic vision in place from the top down and maximise densities in areas proximate to the rail network; post interconnector there will be enhanced capacity on c50 linear miles of rail. In Cork there is the Mallow – Midleton Line; Limerick has the Ennis line and Galway Oranamore.

There is currently a glut of development land on and off market but there is also a strong industrial and services base; the key objective must be to use this downturn to plan sustainbly for the upturn which will come. The stuff that will inevitably end up in NAMA that scares me are the loans secured on land on the edge of small towns where no-one would ever buy except in the most over-heated of markets.

Taking the Irish Glass Bottle Site, yes the consortium paid over the odds for it but would the majority of Dubliner’s in a better market not pay over the odds to live at this location?

The priority must surely be to identify what schemes in appropriate locations are closest to completion and invest money in getting the product to market. If half built apartments are bought at a discount and then completed, funished and rented out surely the income yield from rent would more than exceed the finance cost which must be paid by the government whatever happens once the debt enters NAMA.

The idea of a €90bn property company with an almost soveriegn credit rating is exactly quite exciting in a lot of ways!

@marmajam wrote:

ha ha

wait until you see what ABP does to NAMA

getting a bit obsessed there PVC?

what’ll you do when they sign the contract?

hospital?

Argentina?

Argentina – good example late 1990’s a number of PPPs – International recession brought on by the dotcom bust ( A sector to which they had very limited direct exposure to) then complete financial meltdown due to their commitments on those PPP deals. Because their borrowing got out of control they defaulted, their debt trades at 16.50% that would give MN an annual finance bill of €330m a year

But back to the EIS how did you select the third of nine locations and deliberately ignore the other 8?

@marmajam wrote:

But that’s referring to the Mater hospital

not the war crimes issue of St Stephen’s Green

spoofing as usual PVC

It refers to nine specific locations. Amounting to so many deficiencies found that in effect An Bord thrown out the EIS and has requested nine seperate EIS reports or one for each location.

Metro North is the greatest waste of money ever proposed nothing more.