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I wouldn’t get overly carried away by the economic climate as there will always be a strong demand for accomodation, retail and leisure space in Ballsbridge. What I can’t figure out is the pricing model for the apartments, assuming €1,000 a square foot as a realistic sale value will particularly spacious 3 beds make c€1.4m with north of 500 of them on the market within a 5 year period? That said the damage was done in the site purchase price and that a realistic proposal that should sail through planning for this site has now emerged is very positive news for all concerned.
O’Mahoney Pike appear to have delivered a good scheme which will fit in well with buildings such as Landsdowne House, American Embassy and the building once occupied by Texaco. The retention of the trees and railings on Lansdowne Road is also particularly welcome. With the stadium opening shortly it looks like Ballsbridge is moving forward quite nicely!!
LUXURY goods maker Hermès is set to acquire the Bond Street store occupied by prestigious jeweller Asprey for £73.5m.
The French fashion house is buying the property, designed by Foster & Partners, from Quinlan Private, the Irish property investment firm that also owns landmark London hotels including Claridge’s and the Connaught.
Hermès is keen to expand its retail empire and is said to be interested in taking over occupation of the store for its own brand. The business is performing well despite the global recession.
Its last set of half-year financial results showed that turnover had increased by 7.6% to €875m (£802m).
In common with other property investors, Quinlan Private has seen the value of many of its holdings fall over the past year, but it has made almost £25m profit from its investment in the Asprey site.
It has owned the store since 2005, when it paid £50m to acquire the property.
In contrast to Hermès, Asprey has been finding the going tougher, racking up losses in each of the past two years, although these have been falling.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6851166.eceDeal of the year by a distance; just proves that extreme quality can provoke special situations
Agreed seperation is important between public and public functions. It is clear that the existing shopping centre had lost its retail mix and vibrancy 15 years ago; there was a High Court case on the existing centre that centered on this very point.
If Tesco have signed up for a full Tesco Extra format at this location no doubt a sufficient number of retailers will want to co-locate; then one gets to the question retailers must ask themselves, can they afford not to be there if they wish to maintain market share.
This scheme will be a good barometer of the retail market for 2012 as the configuration of the units looks good. It may test schemes like Blanchardstown which will be 20 years old at that stage with a number expiries on the horizon. Whilst Blanch will always be a decent scheme once refurbished periodically the concept of less well done shopping centres becoming redundant is a concept that one must be aware of.
@DjangoD wrote:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0921/breaking8.htm
“The project includes shops, apartments and offices centred over the planned Metro line.”
Let the PVC King vs Marmajam catfight recommence… Actually, on second thoughts, don’t.
If Green Luas can service Dundrum which in International terms is a mega-mall; Luas could easily service this development it does not need Metro North to go ahead. It doesn’t harm MN but certainly doesn’t make a clear case for it to be built as one assumes most of the employment will be local
I heard rumours London practice King Sturge are the marketing agents is this correct?
The government has made an in principal decision to invest c€54bn of taxpayers money; clearly the government are doing this to preserve the well being of the domestic banking sector.
The Govt has made this decision following advice and come to the conclusion that they are receiving a portfolio of loans worth €47bn for the portfoio’s current value plus an estimated top slice of €7bn on the development land holdings which is estimated to be realisable when the unprecedented overhang of development land which would be offered onto the market if the banks forclosed on all loans in breach of one loan covenant or another is removed.
It is an act of faith in their ability to manage the macro economy through the current downturn and restructure the economy away from one that relied what in hindsight was at national level too high a reliance on real estate as creator of wealth and at consumer level perceived to be a one way bet that was only up for the 14 years to 2007 and only down for the past 2; in about 2 years; one would assume that subject to the productive sector retaining International competitiveness; something approaching equilibrium sentiment will return.
There are three ways that this can play out; firstly if the government issues bonds and transfers €54bn to the qualifying institutions and simply waits for the sums to be repaid or the government gets activily involved in managing the holdings via NAMA.
If it is the former clearly the original borrowers or the financial institutions who pre NAMA hold the assets will continue to hold the assets, these borrowers in many cases have no capacity to raise additional finance and these borrowers will receive all the upside. In the second scenario the banks will take over the assets and it is clear that the banks even post NAMA will be repairing their balance sheets for a number of years to come; they will not want to extend their exposure to the property sector for a number of years to come.
In the third scenario where NAMA takes greater control there would be much easier access to credit markets to procure development finance for selected projects under government guarantees where the original developer could receive a project managment fee of say 3% – 5% to act as a consultant or if the firms were to be preserved say 8% – 12.5% if the QS function were undertaken in house.
Alternatively NAMA could select a joint venture partner where the land would act as the NAMA investment stake and the selected JV partner would supply development expertise and the sums required to plan, construct and market the development; using that model the upside would be shared.
If the money is transfered and there is no downside for the original borrowers then clearly the taxpayer is getting a very bad deal and NAMA other than needing a few fund accountants to mark the value of the securities to market will be non-existant. However it could be much more but a significant level of control over the portfolio would need to transfer to NAMA.
I see your point on employment; I read the usual pouring concrete equals job line; I don’t know the site so I have no idea if it would be appropriate for a leisure use; I do admire your confidence given your timing. No doubt the submissions period during the drafting of the next development plan will give you an opportunity to make a case to have the land use altered.
I find Noel Whelan’s article bizarre; lets look at Noel’s background he was the first in house quants based political analyst, a role for which his analysis won universal respect. His attempts at Dail Eireann foundered in John Gormley’s constituency and no doubt Noel is convinced that the first past the post system would have of course returned Noel straight to the Dail; the tone of his article suggests that anything less than mathematical carve up of decision making based on mathematics is scientifically unfair. The conclusion of the moral tone taken in the article is that the majority party would protect their electoral superiority and assert their numerical superiority at the ballot box. I would ask Noel to run the quants on an election next February or get off his soap box. We get the government we elect and in this case it is fair to say that the Green party have signed off a number of policy agendas in areas such as road transport that they would not have had in their manifesto; whilst I disagree with them taking the decision outside their parlimentary party it is their right to do so. I would also suggest that Noel’s quants analysis would be equally accurate with their re-election chances if they took the moral high ground on a single issue.
In respect of the presumption that Gerry Robinson that ministers run multi-billion asset management / delivery programmes. I find this to be wrong outside the delivery of road and other physical infrastructure programmes which excluding the odd toll road produce assets that are of no interest to the private sector. Even in cases of the NRA/CIE/RPA there are civil service sub-departments which are charged with moulding and scoping the projects albeit that they need ministerial and cabinet sign off to receive the funding.
What makes Nama fundamentally different from running programmes is that in the remit of Nama is manage loans and not projects. Much of the portfolio deals with built assets that are in all reality semi-liquid property investments; the only decision to be made on these is whether the government instruct a policy of liquidating assets in breach of their lending covenants the second LTV or interest cover is breached or do they encourage a position of restructuring those loans to enable them to be perform to softer tests until medium term values return.
Another significant portion of the portfolio relates to what you would call the half built or untenanted properties; no government is qualified to make calls on what terms would be required to get tenants into empty buildings or which half built projects should receive further funding to be completed.
A decision needs to be made as to who makes decisions; do they hire a team made up of planners, construction managers, loan assessors and property fund managers to make those decions on their behalf or do they hand a fixed term contract to a consultancy(ies) to make those calls. Please do not try to tell me that either John O’Donaghue or the more successful Minister for Fun Michael D Higgins managed the Irish film industry; they both in their very different styles listened to the civil servants who from their professional backgrounds knew exactly where the fault lines were in every decision.
If that is the case my comments don’t apply and unless you are proposing a multiple increase in the quantum on the site and unless existing access is proposed to be altered from a small gate on a boreen to a large access on a main road you appear to be justified by being surprised.
What are the before and after square meterage’s and what is the distance you propose to move the access point?
@Paul Clerkin wrote:
Why? They’re in the planning business not to keep builders in work business.
I totally agree; some of the worst mistakes in planning terms result from proposals devised in a weak market. If the reason for refusal is access from a main road it is equally valid for a local authority to consider that they are less likely to have the funds to upgrade the road to restore an equivelent level of road safety for existing road users.
Was it the N22 that needed serious money spent to upagrade it to solve the problem of access to one off houses which were preventing it functioning as a road. There should be no houses built outside the development boundary in this market or any market except for people farming.
Interesting break down of the figures; I respect his honesty in saying that he like others have no idea where residential land values are going. I do however dispute his views that foreign assets have further to fall; European long term yield averages are roughly 5%; the figure used by Nama was 6%; what caused the crash was not 6% yields or even 5% yields it was the wall of money that was lent to investors from many countries at sub 4% yields. Those sub 4% valuations will not come back any time soon except in few selected markets such as Hong Kong.
I would also look at residential yields which at 3% are below European averages of 4% -5%; residential yields will almost always be lower on the basis that lot sizes are so much smaller which makes investing in a couple of flats a lot more accessible than buying an office tower or shopping centre. Residential property is always much less risky in that finding tenants generally is easier and if you at a difficult point of the cycle do a pragmatic letting below long term value you can adjust the rent back up in a year and not 5 years as is the case with commercial lettings.
Thankfully a stable platform has now been put under the banks; the taxpayer can now appoint expert staff to maximise value of the holdings through active asset management of the portfolio. What long term economic value turns out to be will have little to do with the holdings and has everything to do with how the wider economy performs with particular reference to employment levels and salary levels.
The resident was clearly able to demonstrate that the golf club made no effort to mitigate the situation to not even realise that someone had adversely possessed a section of your holding does make it look like you didn’t even care about your own holding let alone the effect on your neighbours.
@gunter wrote:
And A Sneak Preview Of The The National Convention Centre, That Is If Spoil_sport Hasn’t Block Booked It.
😀
actually wouldn’t mind seeing how that drum works out on the inside, its pretty much just a curved glass facade from what i can make out.
Sounds like a nightmare
I’d argue Caveat Emptor on the basis that the objectors knew the existance of the golf club before they hunkered down. Clearly the statute of limitations would preclude tort actions for damages from damage to complainants property from stray golf balls as the complainants would have precluded their ability to claim that they has acted to prevent said balls entering their property by the effluxion of time.
No nets no maintenance bills for the club; not a bad result considering that they can paint the complainants as rejecting what appear to be all reasonable endeavours on the part of the club
@jungle wrote:
Is it really away from demand?
Looking at the proposed stations
- Docklands – For the offices and apartments around the IFSC
- Pearse St – For Trinity, south docklands offices and interchanges
- Stephen’s Green – For shopping in Grafton St and the offices around Leeson St and Harcourt St
- Christchurch – Probably the lowest demand, but there’s a large residential population in the area
- Heuston – Rail connections to the south and west of Ireland
What other alternative would be possible? Maybe through Tara St and Dame St, but then you cut out a lot of the access to some of Dublin’s busiest office districts and don’t link with Metro North. It would also seem to have a very tight bend, which would restrict speed.
To me there are two pities about the Interconnector as proposed
- The proposed spur from Portmarnock to the airport wasn’t included. This would have meant direct services from Heuston and Pearse St (for the Rosslare line) to the airport and would have meant single change connections from the vast majority of Irish rail stations to Dublin Airport, while Metro North doesn’t integrate with any InterCity lines.
- The line will be restricted to commuter trains, which means it can’t be used as a basis for running through trains from the south and west to Drogheda, Dundalk and Belfast or in conjunction with the first point having all InterCities to Dublin terminate at the airport.
Thanks for giving the Leeside perspective it is not just valuable it is vital determinate in Dublin decision making.
The airport spur will happen if any connection is made to Dublin Airport; when one looks at Cross rail one sees an evolution from drawing dots on a map from point A to point B to connecting standard gauge to standard gauge systems and allowing synergies blossom.
Seamus
I detect from your previous posts that you live not to far from me; I see the logic of your point visiting Dub as a tourist and going to the sites; I’m just not sure that excluding St Green would maximise passenger numbers; there are numerous unattractive buildings within half a mile of St Green that have a lot of commuters. By prioritising a viable alternative to car based commuting you need to move away from a leisure district to the office district and St Green is to Dublin what Mayfair/Noho is to London. Clearly Soho/Covent Garden is College Green
Meanwhile, Mr Sarkozy sought to blaze another new trail today, adding a “happiness index” to the usual measure of economic growth. Mr Sarkozy commissioned a report from the economists Joseph Stiglitz and Armatya Sen with the idea of shifting emphasis from gross domestic product to well-being and sustainability.
Receiving the report in the Sorbonne University, Mr Sarkozy said the old measure of GDP gave a false reading because people saw their living standards deteriorating while GDP was growing. “In the whole world, people think that they are being lied to, that the (GDP) figures are false, or worse, manipulated,” he said. “Nothing is more destructive to democracy”.
The President called for a revolution. New factors is national performance should include such things as “the services which are rendered inside the family”, the quality of public services and access to leisure activities.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6833689.ece
Any thoughts?
Spot on; I wonder will Guiness learn their lesson of losing it last time; given its location in a hen central I doubt it will follow Liverpool’s lead of ditching a lager for a bank; it has top be a mass market alcohol. DCC to need to ensure that its replacement is as tasteful as the Heinekin treatment this signage is clearly the best pitch in the City and forms part of an ACA; Bacardi with a Green palm tree anyone?
I actually think it’s half decent, the odd angled section running between the two blocks weakens it signicantly however.
Contact the Dublin Civic Trust they have a collection of photos of commercial buildings built between 1960 and 1985. I would add the building opposite Jury’s at the corner of Pembroke Road that was occupied by Texaco, the American Embassy and the former Riada Stockbrokers building on the corner of Foster Place and College Green.
Dec you are correct Aer Lingus continue to behave like a flag carrier and throw good money after bad on cargo activities despite the positive changes they are making elsewhere in their passenger operations which will in tim get their P & L account back on track.
I had a good look at air cargo at Dublin Airport a few years back and the talk at Aer Lingus at the time was that it was something that they would be out of by 2008 due to their market share collapsing to levels that made turning planes around quickly a bigger objective.
In 2005 they carried 21,100 Tonnes or 525 truck loads annually on their entire network.
http://www.aerlingus.com/Corporate/Current_Report/AL_AnnualReport2005.pdf
At page 9
By 2008 thay had collapsed to 11,825 Tonnes or 296 truck loads.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0827/aerlingus.pdf
(At page 4)
At the rate of decline between 2005 – 2008; the total cargo carried will be 6,659 tonnes by 2011 which is split across 4 airports with Shannon probably having the largest share once they keep a transatlantic service. Changes in supply chain mean that most consumers of Air Freight now have a global intergrated supply chain management contract with a major supplier such as DHL, UPS or FedEx; Air-Freight really only works on long haul between hub airports with the cargo trucked from say Cork to Paris and flown from there to say Caracas. If air freight is perceived as important surely developing the Harristown fringe with seperate run-way access for the major players such as FedEx and DHL who have their own planes would be the way forward
Looking at Dublin Airport post T2 is it fair to assume that the flag carriers will be using T2 in the main and the low cost carriers the existing facilities? Terminal 2 looks very good and no doubt will be central to the next 20-30 years at Dublin Airport
