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  • in reply to: Metro North #795506
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    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Only in an east to west direction. The DART is useless if you want to go to Swords or the city centre from Drumcondra. Once Metro North is completed Drumcondra will be served by rail from all the points in the compass. This will make the DART more effective as people can switch between it and MN and vice versa. As I said before, it’s a network externality.

    Again with the short-termist thinking. The austerity programme is due to be finished by 2014. More tough budgets, economic growth between 2011 and 2014 and lower unemployment will see the deficit brought down. This is why, with a budget deficit larger than Greece’s last year, we can raise 90% of our funding for this year already. The present is tight but the future is bright.

    Not really since Maynooth is about the same size in a similar residential area and yet supports a heavy rail station. MN is light rail so should see plenty of business along this area.

    Yes, I agree runaway spending was stopped after 1987 producing the fiscal stability necessary to boom in the 90s. However it is untrue to say that capital spending needed to be brought under control since there was little or none of it during that time. This left us with a creaking infrastructure which was about 30 years behind average European standards and resulted in gridlock once our economy revived. Infrastructure has always dragged down our competitiveness position internationally in indices published by the likes of the WEF and IMD. This makes it critical for us to maintain significant capital investment throughout this recession to ensure our catch-up continues. Thankfully, with the exemplar broadband network, intercity motorways, DARTu, Terminal 2 etc., we seem to be doing that. Once the recovery comes in this decade, we’ll have the infrastructure ready to accommodate it.

    It’s not a white elephant. The cost is estimated to have fallen by at least 20% according to an article in last Sunday’s Sunday Times. The same article also points out that the cost-benefit ratio has improved from 1:1.32 to 1:1.5. That means for every euro spent on it, a gain of €1.50 is generated. Moreover, thousands of people will be employed during the construction phase. They will be paying PAYE, PRSI, income levies etc. which will reduce the net cost of Metro North.

    Whether it’s 30m or 40m, a direct rail link from the airport to the city centre is a standard feature of European capital cities. Dublin has been lacking this for decades due to a lack of investment. Now, with MN, we have an opportunity to address this glaring omission.

    Well the CSO has its population at about 30,000 already. While most Swordians may live far part if you’re to be believed, if they want to use MN and live out of walking distance, they can drive to the park-and-ride and then hop on. If you live within walking distance – no problem.

    A two-lane motorway sustainable in an economy which had more than tripled in size? With about 3 times more cars, vans, trucks and buses? Rubbish. The M50 was built on the cheap during the 80s with little vision to how it would be used 20 years in the future. The result was 10 years of it being Ireland’s largest car-park. We had to spend a billion to make it the quick way to drive around Dublin it should have been.

    If the Dept of Finance crunched the numbers and it supposedly failed, then how come it’s still an on-going capital project? Brian Cowen was Minister for Finance in 2004 and he was the man who announced a few months ago that MN was one of the projects included in the €39 billion capital programme. The DoF has the ability to kill projects it doesn’t like and yet they don’t seem to be doing that with MN. That means either they don’t believe in their 2004 assessment or they don’t care. Either way, it doesn’t do much for your position.

    Well Frank McDonald is a man with an opinion on MN and good luck to him but he is just one man amongst many with a view on it yet he is gifted with a by-line to broadcast his views to the nation.

    Irrelevant considering that most of the area is already quite built up and is a ready-made market for the MN. The only open ground MN traverses is around the airport and that’s to be expected anyway.

    Not always a given with heavy traffic, roadworks, crashes and so on. Modern business depends on seamless and reliable service. A direct rail link between airport and city centre provides this.

    I’ve dealt with this above when comparing DCU to Maynooth. In any case, DCU is a young and rapidly expanding university with a major venue – the Helix – on its grounds with an established suburb surrounding it. There is plenty of potential market there for Metro.

    A station which is only useful if you are coming to Croke Park from the east or west. If MN was operational now, Down supporters could drive down to the Bellinstown park and ride and get the Metro to Drumcondra. Similarly, Dublin supporters from the west of the city could get the bus into Town and get the Metro from OCS or Stephen’s Green to Drumcondra. In addition to this, business people attending conferences at Croke Park centre and tourists going to the Museum could use the line to get there quicker and easier.

    Or 2 hospitals less than 5 minutes from the Metro stop.

    I’ve lost count the amount of times you have said that a location would not be adequately served because it only had one rail line. You need to address the following

    The original MN proposition had a financial basis of

    Annual Growth of 6-10%
    Ability to levy development contributions of at least €50m per year for a 10 year period
    The ability to price debt within 25 basis point of Bund

    On that basis that a complete white elephant could be provided for in the run up to the construction period with 10 year planning permissions allowing about €250m pre-construction; €250m during construction and €500m in the decade post construction. That is half the sum the RPA claim it would cost to build.

    Address the shortfall and please do not say that the season ticket holders of the Heilix will make it all up…..

    in reply to: Giant sculpture to be located in Liffey #790802
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    That is an exceptionally inovative approach to an energy project!

    Could have a very relevant second spin on the Scottish Highland Interconnector to move wind and wave generated power to core Scotland and massage some of the reservations held by conservationists about standard pylons being completely unsuited to a pristine landscape..

    That use surprises, another Gormley standard man in river or urban/semi urban location would not surprise or excite.

    in reply to: Parlonesque #813450
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    Dempsey’s secret meeting with the ‘important people’

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/dempseys-secret-meeting-with-the-important-people-2297983.html

    By DANIEL McCONNELL Chief Reporter

    Sunday August 15 2010

    A SENIOR minister was involved in a major row with a former ministerial colleague-turned-lobbyist at a behind-closed-doors meeting in Dublin last week, the Sunday Independent has learned.

    Transport Minister Noel Dempsey was attacked by several of Ireland’s leading business figures over the cuts in government capital spending, its handling of the economic crisis and the expenses controversy at the private meeting hosted by a leading law firm in Dublin last Thursday.

    Also in attendance was Dempsey’s former ministerial colleague Tom Parlon, now the head of the Construction Industry Federation.

    Sources say Parlon “laid into” Mr Dempsey and the government’s cut in capital spending at a time of “famine” in the building sector.

    The confrontation is the latest in an ongoing war of words between the erstwhile colleagues.

    The meeting of 30 leading business, financial, legal and construction figures was held at the offices of lawyers Mason, Hayes and Curran in Dublin and was conducted under “Chatham House Rules”, meaning the details of what was said were to remain private.

    However, the Sunday Independent has learned that Mr Dempsey, following a short address in which he attacked the media for being too negative and laid out the government’s budgetary strategy, began taking questions from the assembled group.

    He prefaced his address with a request that those assembled tell him exactly what they think about the Government and not to hold back. According to sources at the meeting, several in attendance were “extremely forceful” in their criticisms. When it came Mr Parlon’s time to speak, things heated up.

    Mr Parlon began his comments by referring to a previous attack by Mr Dempsey on him, when he said the construction chief was “talking out of his hat”. Mr Parlon responded by saying: “Now, we can all use colourful language, but based on our figures, you haven’t a snowball’s chance of spending the €5bn next year as promised.”

    It is believed Mr Parlon referred to analysis that showed the Government was well behind on its own capital spending commitments set out at the end of June.

    Mr Dempsey is said to have revealed that much of the €5bn promised for next year will not be used to start any new major projects, but will be used to pay off projects already under way.

    Mr Parlon was highly critical of that, saying following the completion of major projects like the Limerick Tunnel, the Aviva Stadium and the Convention Centre, there is nothing left but “Mickey Mouse” developments.

    “There is a real famine for decent work out there,” he said.

    According to sources, the normally combative Dempsey eventually agreed with much of what Mr Parlon was saying.

    Mr Dempsey’s spokeswoman said the meeting was “convivial but productive”.

    She said the minister had gone to hear from important people who create jobs on how the Government can be doing more for them.

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/markets-lose-faith-in-vulnerable-ireland-2297951.html

    in reply to: Unfair tactics #813813
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    In terms of retail there were some good schemes done in Donegal including Letterkenny SC; which is I understand fully let. Aldi are a tough bunch to please at the best of times in that they have pretty rigid criteria i.e. it should be freehold but must have certain levels of parking; narrow floor area ranges per catchment reference etc. I can understand why ABP may not wish to allow creation of a precedent in them going into a retail park; although you feel that a similar application today might not be brought to their attention in the first instance.

    Out of interest was the appeal brought by another retailer and if so was it prepared by consultants and were national retail strategies heavily referenced in that appeal?

    in reply to: Unfair tactics #813811
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    Can you post the actual decision; it is unlikely that they would refuse on a single ground; was it in a retail park with a ‘bulky goods’ original permission for development that someone was trying to vary?

    in reply to: Metro North #795501
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    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Metro North links with DARTu and DART at Drumcondra. Density along the MN line can grow over the century it will be in operation. .

    Drumcoundra has rail coverting to Dart it is served; where is the 80 year interest free loan?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Deficits are being slashed. The government is committed to an austerity programme which should see our deficit brought under control by 2014. .

    The deficit is 19.75% that is far from under control; ask the ratings agencies what they think.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Au contraire, it is you who is getting desperate. Here are the actual figures from the DCU website –

    Full Time and Modular Students: 8,909
    Part-Time Students: 1,579

    So 85% of DCU’s students are full time and in need of quality reliable public transport. Add in the 2-3,000 staff at DCU, the people who would be going to and fro the Helix and the people of Whitehall who would like to use the Metro to get into Town and you have a sizable market for a Metro stop.

    In addition to this, DCU has risen rapidly through the THES University rankings in recent years. This makes it very likely that it will continue to grow over short to medium term. It is therefore quite sensible to put in place transport provision like a Metro stop..

    Small numbers and nowhere near enough to sustain an underground station as it is surrounded by 3 bedroom semi-detached houses.

    T@Cathal Dunne wrote:

    hat’s 1980s thinking. We cut back on the capital programme to nothing and it was all to our cost as we didn’t have the infrastructure to cope with our boom in the 1990s. The capital budget has been reduced, but we can still spend about 4% of GDP on capital projects every year. That’s about €5.3 billion a year and some of that money can go towards MN..

    Think about how the 1980’s recession ended; it was when run away public spending including capital spending was brought under control.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Avatar world? That’s a great way to respond to my point about how, at almost every point in our independent history, our infrastructural plans had no vision and no consideration of the long term. Thankfully with a Terminal 2, DARTu, Metro North, intercity motorway network etc. we finally have a strategy which seems to be about providing for the future. I would ask you to stop focussing on what’s immediately before you and think about what way you want this country to be like in 10, 20 and 30 years’ time. If you’re not prepared to look to future and put in plans now as to how to achieve it then you are doomed to stay stuck in the present..

    There are in excess of 400,000 people on the dole; having a viable taxbase is the future not a white elephant like Metro North.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    At the minute. In 2020 there could easily be 30 million using the airport – just when MN is getting up and running…

    The original forecast was 1m yoy growth from 2004 (base passengers 19m) or 40m in 2020; that 50% passenger growth or 30m in 2020 is acheived is both 10m below the forecast supporting MN and is clearly in this environment far from certain.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Swords’ population has grown rapidly over the past 10 years and has the capacity to grow much further over the next 10. It is a major suburb which would benefit from the service of a rail link to the city centre..

    Swords cannot develop fully because it is constrianed by fractured ownership patterns; urban Swords within 1kms of its centre will never grow above 20,000.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    The Dept of Finance doesn’t like spending money on principle. They’re beancounters, not transport engineers. The DoF tried to finance the M50 on the cheap during the 80s and we ended up with just two lanes and bad interchanges. We had to spend over a billion correcting this mistake..

    The M50 was driven by an opportunistic PPP bridge that turned into a ransom strip; if planning had been sustainable at a regional level a two lane M50 would have been more than adequate. Dept of Finance crunched the numbers; the project failed on 2004 numbers; it would fare much worse today.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Correction, Frank McDonald is opposed. The Irish Times merely lets him hold forth on these views. I agree with McDonald on a lot of things but not on this. As on Letters to Editor suggested, perhaps he just suffers from hadesphobia..

    Frank McDonald is the Irish Times when it comes to Infrastructure comment.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Existing development of large suburbs, the island’s premier airport, DCU, Croke Park, Mater and National Children’s Hospitals, O’Connell St. and St. Stephen’s Green. In addition to this, we will see lots of people switching between MN and DARTu, MN and the Red Line, MN and Green Line and MN and DART at Drumcondra plus local bus routes.

    1,000 units a year tops
    30 minute bus ride from the airport to the city centre
    A small university
    A stadium beside a Dart Station
    2 hospitals less than 10 minutes walk from the Luas link up terminus

    Demonstrate its viablity in terms of actual passenger numbers that can be funded on a 20-25 year time frame; if you did you would be smarter than the ESRI, Dept of Finance, Irish Times and many others….

    in reply to: Interconnector aka DART underground #802182
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    @missarchi wrote:

    GOD NEVER closes one window but he opens another one. It may be that the Railway Procurement Agency is now about to repeat this trick. A very exciting prospect has been opened up by the proposed placing of the Dart Underground and Metro North shared station below ground at St Stephen’s Green in Dublin, requiring major changes to the landscaping.

    Anybody coming from the direction of Grafton Street can hardly fail to notice the strange appearance of the Green. The prospect is one of continuous high greenery, concealing the marvellous public space that has afforded Dubliners such a great amenity for three centuries.

    There is anecdotal evidence that the Green has become so sequestered that it is putting off some visitors from going into it at all. This is entirely unacceptable and we now have a remedy for it. We can restore it to its original role and make it once again a truly European space.

    This is the most ridiculous opinion piece I’ve seen for a while; to turn Stephens Green into an open common and destroy a planned Victorian Garden park to end up with another St Patricks Park would be a tragedy.

    Does this lecturer specialise in ‘Rural Planning’ and have a hobby as a closet bungalow designer?

    Some wayfinding signage to St Patricks Park might be a good idea though.

    in reply to: Metro North #795499
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    Frank

    Nice try on the O’Reilly report; but lets put that document into sequence; this 2004 document was sent to the Transport Committee who then sent it to Finance who then binned the project. To give a 4% return on capital Metro North would need to produce a surplus of between €80m – €200m a year; no one has ever produced the loss it would make operationally but as a project it would have a negative RoI. A 2010 cost benefit analysis would be beneficial but clearly 2004 bearts no resemblance to 2010.

    On the Irish Times I fully agree that John Waters is a scream but Frank McDonald is clearly the only infrastructure journalist to be considered an authority on Transport infrastructure; his views are very well known; Interconnector as must have project; Metro North not viable and not costed.

    As for the ESRI; they couldn’t have made their views any clearer on Metro North and a plethora of other unviable projects such as the Tuam Motorway not being viable and that if economic stimulus is to take place then resources absolutely need to be prioritised towards training.

    in reply to: Unfair tactics #813809
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    This appears to be the applicant being ordered to pay various parties including the local authority and local residents. One wonders what ABP found against the applicant to order payment of costs.

    in reply to: Metro North #795497
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    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Plenty, considering it’s a great tourist attraction with lots of things to see and do. With a direct rail link to the city centre via Metro North, it’ll be an easy thing for them to get there..

    Get real; passenger fly in from Mumbai; get off the plane check in through US Immigration and get back on the plane; the sole beneficiary area will be Duty Free which will be limited to perfume and premium spirits as cigerettes are infinitiely cheaper in India. What you have described is a glorified refueling arrangement. The deal is done out of the desperation of realising that 15m of un-needed capacity has been created.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Oh yes I can. We’re talking about a city which is only starting to put in an underground network. London was in the same situation in the 19th century. That’s why it makes sense to compare Dublin of today to London of the 1850s. Dublin today has about the same population as London then. If the underground was a proposition for a London of 1.5 million people, it makes sense for a Dublin of 1.5 million people..

    No comparison is valid with Metro North fior two reasons; firstly the undergound was built to link existing rail heads such as Victoria, Paddington and Kings Cross. Secondly the City already had an average development density of 5-6 storey buildings along its entire route before it was built.

    Do not forget that for every tube journey in London there are two by bus.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Swords and Ballymun are large suburbs with Swords alone having a population in tens of thousands – far greater than your figure of 10,000. On the basis of this and the fact that there’s an airport which can now carry 35 million passengers annually along its route, there’s demand there for a Metro. .

    Even the RPA admit that 35m passengers was a 2015 figure based on a very different set of projections; refer to the ESRI projection above that the population is likely to fall by 120,000 in a mere 2 years. Your projections are utter fantasy.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    In that report they’re arguing against infrastructure spending as a stimulus to economic policy. They’re not arguing against infrastructure spending per se. That would be ridiculous as it is the government’s responsibility to spend a part of our tax money on providing us with road, rail, waterworks etc. to make our country livable. I remind you again, this country in the past has shown severe short-sightedness with regard to infrastructure to the cost of future generations. Our rail and tram networks were destroyed by governments who failed to think ahead. Thankfully, with the public works programme of the last few and forthcoming years, that short-sightedness is beginning to end. There seems to be a real eye to the future in our capital budget..

    So building a metro with no economic viability that has been rejected by the Dept of Finance is something other than economic stimulus. There won’t be a next government with any decision making power unless deficits are slashed.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    It’s one mile from the top of O’Connell St, but who ever walks just to the top of O’Connell St. and just stays there? The real attractions are further down at the GPO, Spire, Eason’s and Clerys. With a Metro line running beside Drumcondra, it’ll be so handy to switch from the DART to the Metro and be at the bottom of O’Connell St. in only a few minutes. So much handier than trudging the streets and potentially getting lost.

    On top of this, the Drumcondra stop is very near to Croke Park. Thousands of people will be able to use the Metro to get to Croker for matches, concerts and events at the conference centre. Another use of the Metro which makes it even more viable..

    Croke Park would be served by Drumcoundra station the location of which already provides the same proximity. Your trudging the streets remark is infantile; people can take buses; there are two bus journeys in London for every tube journey.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Get on their bikes. That reminds me of a rather callous speech made by Norman Tebbit at the height of the unemployment crisis in the very UK you mention. At the minute DCU is lost on the northside and isn’t adequately served by public transport. A QBC is easy to run by UCD because the N11 is at a tangent to the grounds. DCU has no such luck. Trinity has its station at Pearse and numerous bus routes, Maynooth has its train station and bus routes, the new Grangegorman DIT will have Broadstone and bus routes. Why can’t DCU have its station via the Metro North? .

    Because the money isn’t there; have you forgotton the budget deficit is 19.75% of GDP.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    The fact is that DCU is a rapidly growing university – it only gained this status 20 years ago – and serves as a major market for the Metro North. In 2019, when MN is taking passengers, there could easily be 18,000 students there.

    Finally on DCU, if you don’t care about the students, then what about the people who are there to teach them and work in DCU administration? Haven’t they contributed through their PAYE, PRSI and pension levies? Don’t they deserve a reliable public transport to their place of work? .

    There will not be 18,000 students in DCU in 2019; we don’t know how many full time students are there now as the only figure includes part time students. You are starting to sound very desperate.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Well all I’ll say is that I was in Rome, Barcelona and London – all cities with an underground, and I saw lots of lifts at stations. In any case, if people are too delicate to take the Metro going to Mater, they can take it coming home when they’ve been treated. .

    How many underground lines did any of these cities have under 3 bed semi detached houses?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Yes, because Dublin needs an underground railway system and, after the success of the Jack Lynch, Port and Limerick Tunnels, we can apply this experience to boring the Metro North and Interconnector tunnels. .

    Big difference between a road tunnel and an underground; there are no concourses in road tunnel; no escalators; much smaller fire agress provision. A bit like sending a train to your local kwik fit for repair, very different skill set.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    I wasn’t comparing the interconnector to the Metro. They’re obviously different. One sews up the DART network while the other gives a direct rail link from the city centre to the airport – something which should be a standard feature in any European capital city. The government has €39 billion to spend over the next 6 years. MN and DARTu can be funded out of this package. .

    Two downgrades recently from the ratings agencies and the highest deficit in the developed World; there is no €39bn or anything like it for capital expenditure. Just look at the announcement of the ancillary Pace – Navan rail line to get a guage on just how unrealistic Dempsey and co are being. Metro North is the weakest link – goodbye

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    The problem with a Luas connection is that it is subject to the vagaries of on-street traffic. Metro North has no such problems and can get you from Swords to the city and back fast and without delay. .

    You can say that about any on street route; however the Green line operates perfectly well on street and was affordable.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Short-termist thinking yet again. The tram lines probably didn’t yield a return in the 1950s yet had they been retained, we wouldn’t have had to spend over a billion now rebuilding them over another 20 year period. The same goes for all the rail infrastructure dismantled. Metro North will deliver immediate returns in terms of easier access to the northside and future returns to our children and their children..

    You can go off and live in your Avatar World; the rest of us are unfortunatley stuck in the present; where money has a very real opportunity cost.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Population densities change and they will change again over the next 9 years as we wait for the first carriages of MN to arrive. What’s more is that having a Metro stop nearby will encourage development and investment in the Northside. Now that MN and DART will serve Drumcondra you could see that area receive higher-density development over the next 30 years. The same goes for Northwood and Fosterstown. These places can thrive now that there is a Metro stop nearby.

    Fingal is developing about 1,000 homes a year the majority of these are in Blanchardstown or on the coast. The development argument died with Bear Sterns and the unravelling of Anglo.

    You need to see reality.

    Airport 20m-25m passengers
    Swords Urban pop 10,000 – 15,000
    ESRI opposed
    Dept of Finance opposed
    Irish Times opposed
    Development along route <1,000 units per year

    There is a limited argument for a Luas line along this route; there a more compelling one for a QBC

    in reply to: Metro North #795495
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    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Exactly. The current terminal has only 8 years of spare capacity. In infrastructure planning terms, that is no time at all. Ireland needs to have a longer-term view than just 8 years. Thankfully, with Terminal 2, we won’t have any capacity concerns for the next two decades. Air India is interested in Dublin as a European hub as our Terminal 2 and US Immigration Clearance Facility makes us very attractive as a venue for EU-US flights. Dublin can now become a key hub in aviation like Singapore and Dubai.

    Singapore and Dubai have a key advantage; a very ambitous flag carrier that is supported by sovereign wealth funds with very deep pockets; except Dubai is the national equivelent of Metro North and had to be bailed out. Good luck to DAA on getting Air India to dock 2 or 3 daily flights but how many Indians will want to visit Dublin City Centre?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    What difference does it make? Swords is just one part of the line and won’t be the making and breaking of Metro North. I remind you that this underground line will still be there in 100 years so there definitely will be the population there to use the Metro. The London Underground was built when London had less than a quarter of its current population and nobody would say that was a mistake. The Tube is still using lines built then and in 2110, Metro North will still be serving Swords. That makes your depictions of Swords as little more than a village irrelevant.

    You can’t compare London’s underground development to Dublin; one is a City with 8m inside its ring motorway which has a core of 6 storey average building heights that covers probably 20 square miles. Swords has been held up along with the Airport and Ballymun as a key provider of passengers to make the service viable; the population statistics supplied are clearly flawed.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    The ESRI’s Recovery Scenarios paper forecasts Ireland returning to peak levels by 2018 in the low growth scenario and 2015 in the high growth. Given that the ESRI has often under-estimated the strength of Ireland’s economy, it’s likely we’ll reach peak levels by 2015/16.

    I wouldn’t be too bothered with S&’s notes. They are, after all, the people who gave sub-prime loans AAA ratings.

    S & P are the experts in credit risk management; it is fair to say that sub-prime had more to do with a deterioration in lending standards and misinformation provided by banks to rating agencies as they could only rate what they were given. If you want to use the ESRI whose predictions are based on their advice being followed you may wish to see their views on Infrastructure spending.

    Bank costs to swell deficit – ESRI
    Wednesday, 14 July 2010 15:33
    The Economic and Social Research Institute says the cost of providing extra capital to Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide will have to be included in the national accounts, and will push the government deficit from 11.5% to 19.75% of economic output – by far the highest in the developed world.

    The report indicates that 120,000 people will have left Ireland in the two years to next April.

    Read more detail on the report here

    Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has praised the Government’s moves to support the banks and tackle the budget deficit, saying they had helped stabilise the economy. Read more on the IMF view here

    Spend on training, urges ESRI

    The ESRI also says money to tackle long-term unemployment is better spent on training schemes than on building infrastructure.

    In its latest quarterly survey of the Irish economy, the ESRI sees little difference to its previous outlook, with the economy broadly flat this year and modest growth next year.

    But what has changed is the announcement in March of E12.9 billion of extra capital for Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide. This injection is by way of promissory note – a type of IOU under which cash can be drawn down over a ten-year period as the institutions require.

    The ESRI believes the EU statistics agency Eurostat and other international bodies will want that liability written into the national accounts in full this year. That would have the effect of increasing the government deficit from the department of finance target of 11.5% to almost 20%.

    The ESRI also cautions against using infrastructure spending as a job creation mechanism, saying its research suggests that money is better spent on improving workers’ skills through training programmes for long-term sustainable results.

    Bank figures factored in, says Cowen

    Speaking in the US, Taoiseach Brian Cowen said financial markets had already factored in the fact that injections of capital to nationalised Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide could raise the deficit. But he said that would be a one-off and its exact accounting remained unclear.

    ‘The underlying deficit situation is as planned,’ Mr Cowen told RTE’s Morning Ireland. He said that, in the US, people felt that Ireland had ‘first mover advantage’ and had made the right decisions to get through the difficult economic period.

    The main opposition parties said the ESRI report indicated the need to make jobs a priority. The Fine Gael spokesman on finance, Michael Noonan said it should set alarm bells ringing that the Government’s economic strategy of massive bank bail-outs and fiscal austerity was not enough to get Ireland working again.

    The Labour Party spokeswoman Joan Burton said the the Government had been quick to trumpet any sign of economic recovery, but the truth was that there would be no recovery for families until unemployment started to fall.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    15 minutes by bus to the airport from Drumcondra? 15 minutes walk into Town from Drumcondra? Are you mad? It takes about twice that at least. In any case, as the subject of an other thread – “Visionary Public Transport System for Dublin” points out, we walk too much in this city. Dubliners are forever walking from place to place where in other cities they would hop on the Metro to get there.

    Drumcoundra station is than one mile from O’Connell Street via Lower Dorset St and Parnell Sq. The aircoach takes 15 mins from Quinns pub to the airport.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    And, as I point out above, excludes the administrative and teaching staff who need to get there too. Your point about students getting up earlier is glib. Students shouldn’t have to pay the price for poor transport planning in Dublin. UCD may have a QBC, but DCU doesn’t. You need to use at least 2 buses to get there which exposes you to the risk of missing and delayed buses. Metro North will solve these problems by providing a reliable transport link to DCU. I also remind you that the Helix is there, which is used extensively for plays, shows and events like You’re a Star auditions. These create thousands of commuters and Metro North can serve them.

    The point depot is a star attraction; can you not get some grasp of scale. If students are going to avoid graduate taxation as is common in the UK they wouold do well to get on their bikes and figure out that they have got to prove themselves and are not owed anything from the system they have yet to contribute to.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Not many, considering I’m from Dublin and we don’t have a tube. Yet.

    The escalator/stairs point is a red herring. Metro stations will have wheelchair access via lifts. Infirm people can use them to get to street level. I also remind you that their able-bodied visitors can use the Metro to see them and their doctors can use the Metro to get to work.

    Lifts to service underground concourses are rare internationally because of the costs of installing and maintaining them; I fully support disabled access in places where passenger demand exists to justify a system that is fit for purpose.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    You can’t play this card when you advocate a Luas line instead of Metro North. Luas came in years late and three times its original budget.

    Luas was a first project for the RPA; subsequent projects were within their comfort zone; do you want the RPA on a learning curve again?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    I never said that. What I said is that if we want to have any hope of attracting high-quality investment we need a high-quality infrastructure and Metro North is part of this. Ireland decided to spend next to nothing on capital investment during the 80s and we paid the prices with congestion and tail-backs during the 90s. Even with the austerity programme, €39 billion will be spent on capital projects over the next 6 years. We can get things like the Interconnector and Metro North out of this change. If we don’t implement a strong and substantial capital programme over the next 10 years, we won’t be at the investment races. The two go together.

    You can’t compare the interconnector to the Metro proposal; one delivers capacity on 5 existing lines the other intersects with other elements of the network; extending Luas to the Maynooth line gives the same interconnectivity at a fraction of the cost.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    It’ll be there for a century, it’ll generate thousands of jobs during construction and make it easier to get around the northside. Given that it links with the Luas Green line, Dart Interconnector, Dublin Bus stops and the DART at Drumcondra it will go a long way towards building a seamless public transport system in Dublin.

    Anything that doesn’t work on a 20 year timeframe doesn’t work; if someone offered a 100 year loan with an interest holiday for 80 years you would have an argument. As someone living in a city with extensive public transport I can see where it works and where it doesn’t. Metro North does not have the population density to justify the cost.

    ESRI
    Deptment of Finance
    Irish Times

    All of these bodies are calling for Infrastructure spending to be pulled in or have found Metro North not to be viable. What part of route does not have the density to make it a viable project do you not get?

    in reply to: One Berkley court -132m Tower #792285
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    i haven’t seen the revised application so I have no idea how appropriate it is in terms of interacting with Pembroke Road; which is to my mind a very attractive urban space with two of the best early commercial office schemes built in Dublin in Texaco and the US Embassy which is a much finer example than their London equivelent.

    That said two issues I think are relevant to the discussion; firstly the scheme is no longer controlled by Sean Dunne, it is controlled by the syndicate of banks that lent money for this scheme on the strength of assets that he no longer owns.

    Secondly the site is a couple of hundred metres from Dart at Landsdowne Rd; with a high quality transport connectivity and walkability to the Dublin 2 core office district; a higher than usual density should I feel be permitted.

    What was clearly missing from the original application was been moving the blocks around in a manner that respected Pembroke and Landsdowne Roads.

    What is clearly required is an outcome that does not damage the character of Dublin’s most attractive mixed use district whilst providing the City with a density boost and the banks with an exit route by way of an agreed planning consent that could be sold on to an International developer or pension pool.

    in reply to: Metro North #795493
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    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    So the current building has eight year’s spare capacity in it. What about the next 8 and the 8 after that? If we do nothing until 2018 when the current terminal reaches its fill we’ll have 6 years of Terminal 1 being ridiculously over-crowded as we wait for Terminal 2 to be built. Terminal 2 future-proofs Dublin Airport by giving it plenty of capacity for the next 20 years. It’s already attracted the attention of Air India as a possible EU-US hub since it has a dedicated US immigration clearing service. If airlines like Air India start using Terminal 2 then it will pay its way and be recognised as a smart investment. Besides, it’s good to have an airport with loads of spare capacity. Spare capacity means it’s easy to find a place beside the luggage belt, get a parking space, find a seat while you wait to board etc.. Tourists, especially the business kind, value that sort of experience and it will make them like an airport all the more and use it more often..

    The airport had enough capacity to take it to 2018; they have added enough to take it at least 2033 in the midst of an economic collapse; what has Air India to do with such poor timing?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    According to a report conducted by Indecon referred to in this article, Swords’ population was 59,000 in 2006.Link. Given that Metro will still be running 100 years’ hence, there is plenty of time for that figure to rise to 128,100, even if it does miss the 2025 deadline. .

    The census put it at c22,000 including remote wards such as Rolestown etc that are 2-3 miles from the town centre; what is the urban population of Swords either today or in 2006?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    For now, but the economy will recover over this decade and passenger numbers will rise with that recovery. Infrastructure isn’t about present demands, its about the future, and meeting it. By 2050 we could very well have a third terminal built and a Metro line of double the capacity to meet all the extra demand..

    Show one economic projection that displays demand for2020 at even 2007 levels. This project was kicked out by the Dept of Finance when growth was running at 6-10% a year. I refer to S &P’s opinion above.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    East to west maybe, but not north to south. If you want to take a train to the airport or to O’Connell St. from Drumcondra, you still would have to wait. Moreover, the existence of two rail lines at Drumcondra will increase demand on both lines as people use Metro to get to Drumcondra and then take the DART to their final destination and vice versa. The Metro improves the efficiency and attractiveness of the DART at Drumcondra. It’s called network externalities. .

    With a change at Pearse passengers are in Heuston ; it is 15 minutes by bus to the airport and O’Connell St is less than 15 minutes walk. €2bn – €5bn is just too much money for what the project delivers; an underground Luas line.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    DCU has about 10,000 students which, when added to the amount of teaching and administrative staff working there, amounts to a town’s worth of commuters. One of the key reasons I didn’t consider DCU in my CAO was the poor transport access – it would take at least 2 buses to get there. Given that buses are often snarled up in Dublin’s heavy traffic, the potential to be late for lectures is huge. With a Metro stop right beside it, these problems are solved. DCU will be easily accessible from the city centre and this will boost the numbers choosing to study there.

    Furthermore, DCU isn’t just a university, the Helix is there too. That centre plays host to a huge number of plays, shows and conferences. Having the Metro stop nearby would make this place more competitive for business and result in more people using Metro..

    This includes part time students; students need to get up earlier or cycle. UCD does fine with a QBC. You need to picture scale..

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Why? On-street Luas would be caught up in traffic and there’ll be lifts at the Mater Metro stop which would have you street-level in no time..

    Because most sick people take taxi’s or buses; how many sick people do you see on tubes or subway’s? The climbing down steps and escalators is not suited to the infirm.

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    Not if you’re using the DARTu from the east or west. From these directions it would be much more convenient to make the switch at Stephen’s Green and get off at O’Connell Bridge. .

    You either change at Pearse or walk for 5 minutes from Tara St or god forbid even use the Luas from Connolly to access O’Connell Street

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    According to the Dublin Port Tunnel website, 5,000 people were employed during construction. Link.

    I am unsure as to the mix between domestic and international employment. I would imagine a large chunk of that would be domestic as most of the jobs would be in blasting, clearing and excavating. The manual labour content would be much higher than non-manual. You would need only a small design team in an office in Switzerland while you’d need hundreds on the ground in Clontarf.

    I would also imagine that since we have built the Jack Lynch Tunnel, Port Tunnel and Limerick Tunnel; the technical ability amongst Irish contractors for projects such as these is rising. In that case I would estimate that DARTu and Metro North will see an even greater Irish involvement in the development of the project..

    The Irish firm on this went bust in the early stages of the project (Irishenco) and was bought out by Mowlem; the project over-ran from 43 months to 5.5 years and the tender price of €457m came back at €752m with a further claim of c€300m made by the contractors. Hardly encouraging..

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    I don’t see why the two are mutually-exclusive. IDA-backed companies like having a good infrastructure surrounding their investments. If the management of an IDA-backed company can zip around Town on the Metro/DARTu, they’re much more likely to stay rather than re-locate somewhere else. Our infrastructure deficit is one of the key drags on our competitiveness according to the lists published by IMD and the WEF. Having things like Metro North will go some way towards alleviating this and make it easier for the IDA to get the high-quality jobs you mention.

    Are you really saying with deficits north of 10% that money is not tight?

    @Cathal Dunne wrote:

    I won’t address that because I am not the Department of Finance (unfortunately) and I can’t speak for them. .

    It seems no one connected with the project will address this fact; it is simply unacceptable that with 400,000 plus people out of work that scarce resources continue to be poured into a project that has never passed an objective cost benefit analysis.

    in reply to: Metro North #795491
    admin
    Keymaster

    So you don’t want Terminal 2 built either? You have seen how crowded Terminal 1 can get? Yes, the crowds have cleared since the recession began and the concept of second and third holidays became too expensive but those crowds will return over the next 5-10 years as our economy recovers and our population grows. We would be back to queues and gridlock. Terminal 2 may be expensive and almost empty in its first few years but it provides the capacity for Dublin Airport to grow with little capacity constraints over the next 20 years.

    Terminal 1 has a capacity of 30m pax; current usage is 20.5m even assuming growth of 1m pax which is optimistic; then terminal 1 has sufficient capacity to last through to 2018 in isolation; terminal 2 although a very attractive building will be a significant drain on resources going forward. The statement below is from the S & P downgrade of DAA’s credit rating in February.

    We expect the financial profile of the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) to materially weaken from previous expectations because of significant declines in passenger traffic volumes. We are consequently lowering our assessment of DAA’s stand-alone credit profile (SACP) to ‘BBB’ from ‘A-‘. Based on our opinion that the likelihood of extraordinary government support if needed is “moderate”, we apply a one-notch uplift to DAA’s SACP for extraordinary support. We are lowering the long-term corporate credit rating on DAA to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-‘ and the short-term rating to ‘A-2’ from ‘A-1’. The negative outlook reflects our view that a recovery in traffic is uncertain at this stage, especially in the context of the current economic position of the Republic of Ireland

    Similarly, Metro North is a project for the long-term. Just as some lines on the Tube and Subway have been operational for a century, so too will be the case with Metro North. Places like Swords mightn’t grow to 100,000 in 10 years as was the previous prediction, but it will grow to that level over the next 50 and Metro North will allow those people to get into Town quickly and cheaply.

    I have been through this a number of times before but in the hope that someone finally clarifies the actual population of urban Swords I will ask again; what is the population of Swords within a 1kms radius of the town centre. If it is even 10,000 I will be very surprised; as the development pattern is mostly 1970’s and 1980’s 3 bed semi’s getting the population density up would be extremely difficult due to fractured ownership patterns and numerous local objectors if real density were proposed.

    In any case, the current demand base for the Metro North is strong already. The airport

    The airport has seen traffic collapse and will not reach anything like the original projections based on a highly leveraged bubble economy.

    , Drumcondra,

    Already served by soon to be DART

    DCU,

    A small university

    the Mater Hospital (and National Children’s Hospital),

    Moderatley sized hospitals on constrained sites for whom on street Luas access would be much more convenient.

    O’Connell Bridge and Stephen’s Green will all be along this line.

    Served by the Luas link up.

    Can you not simply address how the Dept of Finance with bulging coffers in the mid naughties said no but now when the funding situation is dire it is suddenly affordable.

    And Metro North will help precisely the people you mention. A large capital project like MN with a significant labour input will create thousands of jobs directly and indirectly in the construction phase and generate more jobs once it’s up and running in 2019.

    The vast bulk of the design and supervision of this project will be done overseas as the skill set doesn’t exist in Ireland; most of the processes will be highly automated; when construction completes all the operatives will need to be re-trained. I would ask two questions

    1. How many people did the Dublin port tunnel employ; how many were domestically based before and after the project?

    2. Why does it not make more sense to have the IDA spend scarce resources on buying jobs with a 10-20 year horizon that in many cases will spawn clusters of excellence.

    in reply to: Metro North #795489
    admin
    Keymaster

    The difference between terminal 2 and MN is single and critical, it is built i.e. there is no ability to stop the project; operationally it would be better if it were not built and the operational inefficiencies it presents are a very notable comparison in terms of massive over capacity relative to demand resulting in either the DAA losing significant sums going forward or air-passengers paying uncompetitive landing charges.

    As Keynes said in the long term we are all dead; it is time to start concentrating on the hear and now all 400,000 plus of them.

    in reply to: Metro North #795487
    admin
    Keymaster

    The project never stood a chance from the moment the Mitsui proposal was turned down; now is a very good time to review the project from its first idea to today in a rough sequence of order.

    Japanese company offers to build Metro at no cost to taxpayer; this is turned down.

    A number of years later RPA are told to look at the feasability of building a metro to Dublin Airport; they come up with a cost of c€4bn; the Dept of Finance call stop on the project. The RPA come up with a revised scheme that terminates in O’Connell St; this is then extended to Stephens Green and to a field a few miles north of Swords. As the fiscal situation goes from boom to boomier then to bust the RPA are told again and again to cut the budget; and then cut it again, and again.

    The problem with Metro North is not the RPA or consultants instructed to chance a yellow pack revision here and there, it is that when costed at a realistic price to deliver a high quality product done right the project was found by the Dept of Finance to be unviable. You can’t blame indivduals for carry out specific instructions.

    You can spin reduced price options any way you want but the clear reality is that the route simply does not have the population density to justify a cost of this magnitude; instead of wasting yet more taxpayers on undoing the technically unacceptable price cuts the project should just be parked up until such time as the funds exist and the development demand returns to make it viable.

    If it wasn’t viable at €4bn in a booming property market where significant development levies could be raised it won’t be for decades to come. Sadly MN is not the only example of this at Government level; there are 400,000 plus unemployed people from a population of just over 4m; surely to God someone at Government level must realise that all of those people who paid taxes for years need to be their only priority…….

    in reply to: Waterford – Rosslare by rail #812374
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    Iarnrod Eireann blames councils for hastening closure of railwayBy Paul Melia

    Saturday August 07 2010

    A FRESH row broke out yesterday over the closure of a railway line after a report said the decision by Iarnrod Eireann had “serious shortcomings”.

    The South East Regional Authority (SERA) investigation found fundamental flaws in rail bosses’ proposals to scrap the underperforming Rosslare-to-Waterford line.

    It claims the service could get back on track through extra stops and a more frequent timetable.

    But Iarnrod Eireann has in turn blamed local authorities for hastening the closure of the railway line because of poor planning decisions.

    A spokesman claimed that if county councils had insisted that new housing developments be built close to the line, it could have attracted more customers which would have allowed it to remain open.

    The new report yesterday said the line could be kept open and passenger numbers increased if more services were introduced, and local authorities and community groups worked to promote the service.

    Last month Iarnrod Eireann announced that services would be suspended because of poor passenger numbers.

    There is only one train from Rosslare to Waterford in the morning and one back in the evening. Just 25 people use the service each day, and the state rail operator said it could not afford to keep it open.

    The National Transport Authority (NTA) will decide next month if the line can be closed. Iarnrod Eireann is paid an annual fee by the Government to provide a service, and the NTA must approve its closure.

    “We made our submission to the NTA and we feel any objective assessment demonstrates that the line is unsustainable,” said Iarnrod Eireann spokesman Barry Kenny.

    Losses

    “We have made assessments in relation to operating additional services, which showed they would generate greater losses. The local authorities did nothing in recent years to make this line sustainable. You could have had focused development around the line to improve its sustainability, but that didn’t happen.”

    The need for the line was stressed in the report commissioned by SERA, which is made up of Carlow, Kilkenny, South Tipperary, Waterford City, Waterford County, and Wexford councils.

    It said a “viable” rail service on the Rosslare-Waterford-Limerick line, and specifically on the Rosslare-Waterford section, would contribute to balanced regional development. It said the region’s population was 460,000, and would increase to almost 600,000 by 2022.

    “A decision to close passenger services on a rail line linking population centres would seriously be in conflict with the thrust of national and regional policy,” it found. “The key question is therefore whether the line is capable of generating enough passenger traffic to make a material contribution to these policy objectives.”

    It said that Iarnrod Eireann’s justification for closing the line had “serious shortcomings” and it would be “unsafe” for the line to close based on the company’s views. “Low frequency services, especially with poor interconnections with other services, cannot be expected to attract large numbers of travellers.”

    It said freight traffic could be increased, and the line developed as a community rail partnership promoted by councils, community and rail user groups and local business.

    – Paul Melia

    Irish Independent

    I have to agree with IE on this; all of the regional authorities sat back whilst tens of thousands of one off houses were built in each of their functional areas. Had the bodies banned one off houses and focussed growth along existing transport corridors and raised development levies to fund removal of level crossings and rolling stock then they could have a go at IE. Why should the tax payer run uneconomical services if the regional and local authorities won’t incur an opportunity cost to assist same?

    in reply to: university of limerick #788549
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    @bonzer1again wrote:

    Clare road to UL to be permanently closed
    Written by Colum Coomey
    Thursday, 05 August 2010 14:29

    ACCESS to the UL campus from South East Clare is being closed off to cars, leading to expressions of anger from those who use the facility.

    Now, Cllr Cathal Crowe is to make representations to Clare County Council on behalf of constituents.

    He pointed out that many students and staff in the University either living in the area or coming from Clonlara, are obliged to travel through Corbally.

    The Garraun Road, which directly connects Clonlara to the back of the Clare side of the campus, was temporarily closed for a number of years.

    “The University erected a gate, closely monitored by security. Many motorists took the route to gain access to the campus”.

    Cllr Crowe is very disappointed that the Garraun Road is to be sealed off on a permanent basis.

    “Although there is still access for pedestrian and cyclists, that road has been there from time immemorial”.

    According to him, it is imperative that there is access to UL from the Clare side of the river Shannon.

    “There is major traffic coming from Clare as it has one of highest volume of students in UL, and more than half of the campus will be on the Clare side of the River Shannon inside 10 years”.

    A recent survey carried out by Clare County Council showed a high volume of traffic travelling to UL from South East Clare through Corbally and Rhebogue.

    “It is argued that the Garraun Road isn’t good enough but surely it would make more sense to finance and upgrade the road than permanently closing it,” added the Clare councillor.

    New access to UL will be created on the Clare side of UL campus when the Coonagh – Knockalisheen distributor road is completed.

    “Phase 1 of this road will be funded through Regeneration and it’s important that this project is fast-tracked now that UL has strengthened their links with NUIG,” he concluded..

    What is hilarious about this protest from cllr Crowe is that the closure of this road to through traffic into the UL campus was a condition of the planning developments on the North campus laid down by Clare County Council of which cllr Crowe is a member. What was his opinion at the time the planning permission was being considered? Could it have been that the local residents did not want this road to become a rat run from Clare to Castletroy and so the conditional approval was given on the basis that people would not be able to use that road to access UL? Cllr Crowe is a great one for running with not alone the hare and the hounds, but those who object to hunting and those would love it.

    in reply to: university of limerick #788548
    admin
    Keymaster

    Cllr Crowe is very disappointed that the Garraun Road is to be sealed off on a permanent basis.

    “Although there is still access for pedestrian and cyclists, that road has been there from time immemorial”.

    According to him, it is imperative that there is access to UL from the Clare side of the river Shannon

    I can see a rich farmer or NAMA offering parking facilities and a rent a bike scheme…..

    in reply to: Metro North #795483
    admin
    Keymaster

    @aj wrote:

    Not the worst idea however in the event of a car crash would it not be forced to stop?

    Looking at the rails its riding on they seem to be doubling as crash barriers, any car hitting them would force the trains to stop to avoid the potenntial for derailment. Given the number of times drivers in Dublin hit bridges this is something to consider.

    I think it is more trucks not seeing the height restriction signs; the yellow paint would look a bit naff; one wonders could they not simply operate on tracks. I think it is a really creative idea but I’m not sure if Dublin is congested enough to merit such an approach; building Luas on street to DCU with a small tunnel under Phibsboro looks like the only way of saving MN at this stage.

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