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Posting on Christmas Day how sad; you should have been opening your second bottle of Dom 1990 by that stage of the day getting ready for a good armagnac.

cagey wrote:
Do you have to be told every little detail PVC …. find out for yourself.

To interchange at Pearse You will have to go through two ticket barriers.

You keep refering to the plans but never post them other than those that don’t back up anything you say.

The words of the song mention turning left for Shannon … very difficult to do from Kilburn. (say sorry)
Do you ever look anything up???

Don’t tell me you think Shannon is near Kilburn …. people in here can decide who made the gaffe

Lets look at the words of the song.

Well the ould fella left me to shannon
Was the last time I traveled that road
And as we turned left at claregalway

Behind all those muddled up problems
Of living on a foreign soil
I can still see the twists and the turns on the road
From the square to the town of the tribes

,

The exact distance between Kilburn and Shannon is 60 mins airtime, 25 mins clearing the airport, 15 mins to Paddington on Heathrow Express and 9 mins on the Bakerloo line or about 109 mins from take off.

You fail to understand the context of anything, I bet the interchange from the Express to the Bakerloo which is also about 200m would be a problem for you as well.

The Country entered depression in 2008, the then largest economic sector construction doesn’t exist save for a few government capital projects which are being wound down. The future looks better purely because it was allowed to fall so far so fast, what is left standing in most cases could probably survive a nuclear winter; you might ask why it fell so far so fast some of it can be attributed to Lenihan Bros but far more of it can be traced much much further back to the days when McGreedy commenced removing all macro prudential supervision of the economy. I am optimistic as to the future of Ireland and continue to invest money in the country but below I list 10 reasons why the system colapsed and 10 indicators if I see repeated why I would pull all funds out within hours; I invest in Ireland for emotional reasons; there are far better opportunities in almost all other markets such as Brazil, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany and the US.

Macro Economic decisions

1. Allowing the economy to become skewed towards a single sector real estate [2000 – 2008] – I concede it was tempting when dotcom burst to look towards a new driver of economic growth. However real estate is the last sector you want, and you must differentiate between real estate services such as architecture and engineering which can be exported as opposed to creating a property investment bubble in your country. This had two effects, firstly it sucked most capital seeking a home away from productive industries such as IT, Pharma etc and secondly the increased rental costs killed the domestic retail sector allowing foreign multiples to leverage long rent free periods to put Irish retailers out of business. It is encouraging to see the Galway Cardio – cluster building that was the alternative and Ireland lost a decade with casino style development dreams when clear opportunities to place money well were under our nose.

2. Opening the door the uncontrolled net in migration – [2004] – no consideration as to the effects on the existing structurally unemployed or more importantly exposure of the taxpayer to allowing a benefits culture to not just continue but get fatter; at the behest of the Mary Healthy / IBEC axis – all countries (particularly the US and Australia) understands that regulation of the population and abilty to provide public services (which are expensive) is vital, the key value drivers of immigration were Indian softare engineers etc who IBM et al could get visas required on the basis of need with a single phonecall as opposed to creating a surplus of plasterers and barristas. It can’t be overlooked that dole in the UK is less than £60 p/w which is no incentive to be long term unemployed.

3. Dependance of the exchequer on property taxes – [2002 – 2007] – no consideration as to what would fill the gap if the music stopped. The idea that people earning €16k per year pay absolutely no tax is ludicrous, even if it were 5% it demonstrated that as a nation we all contributed. When the bubble bust the exchequer had a hole of some 35% of expenditure; probably a developed world record.

4. Relativity pay deals – [2001 – 2007] – these have inflated the costs of governing the country to unsustainable levels just to buy elections.

5. Croke Park Deal [2010] – not only has it not been implemented at all; it was nowhere near enough realistic enough; a private sector taking pay cuts of 10-30% if they were lucky enough to keep their jobs paying for an over-scaled public sector to keep everything except a small cut in their pensions. As was said in the 1950’s if its going to be a hairshirt it needs to be a hairshirt for all.

Banking sector decisions / failures to regulate

6. The Blanket bank assets guarantee [2008]- no discussion with any of the other EU finance ministires and against professional advice – Lenihan Brother B acting the big man – Suicidal and alienated any goodwill Ireland had in Europe after failure to deliver the Nice treaty

7. Anglo Irish Bank – [2000 – 2008] – came out of the TMT decline well having shunned any form of lending to sectors without collateral to place as security. This experience clearly led to them expanding over the next 8 years at a completely unsustainable level. It was well known in Dublin that if BoI or AIB turned any property loan down you could always go to Anglo and get it at a very slightly higher interest rate. Dublin is a very small town and that the regulators knew of this is unquestionable, why did they not have a good look at the Anglo balance sheet in 2004 or 2005 or 2006 or 2007, why did it take Anglo aproaching Government after Bear Sterns for the situation to even enter on a radar.

8. One off housing – [2004 – 2011] – the creation of a site farming industry was another ill conceived measure which may have some of the most long lasting damage. Look at the manner in which the Sunday Times estimates wealth in their rich list; Tycoon 123; printing business £80m & 7,000 acres of land in Lanarkshire @ £3,000 per acre = £101m – Agricultural land is just that and must be valued as same. Now you have the banks landed with tens of thousands of sites when purchasers have borrowed €150,000 just for the land and spent another €250,000 for a house in the middle of nowhere and very limited resale value because they were personalised and not considered for any form of resale. This industry created many small time developers who had no clue as to the manner real estate works and then paid up to €1m an acre for holdings at the edges of inappropriate satellite towns for often unzoned land in highly leveraged loans where the security may have been 5-10% of the loan value. This was well flagged for years before the crash and anyone holding these views were demonised; the music always stops.

9. Faiure to assess competing proposals [2000 – 2006] – The number of small towns in Ireland where two or more banks leant money to competing developers to build a shopping centre, retail park or 300 unit housing estate when clearly only 1 development of this scale could be sustained is a another major cause of the crash. I wouldn’t mind but this intelligence existed courtesy of the Newmarket publications ‘planning intelligence’ reports which anyone could subscribe to.

10. Continuing to lend money [2008 – 2010] – probably under political pressure the banks continued to borrow money on bond markets at ever higher rates of up to 11.50% p.a. – they continued to lend this money as mortgages at 4%; not exactly rocket science to work out that even forgetting administrative costs that you would not be long going out of business if new lending recovers only about a third of the costs you are paying for the money.

2011 can’t be any worse, construction doesn’t exist so can’t depress activity any more, Lenihan Bros will be decimated in the election and negative investor sentiment will move to Spain, Portugal, Hungrary and Belgium; leaving Ireland to get on with it.

There is one key lesson in all this, when people tell you that you are top of the class it is not because you are it is because you are playing the rules of their game in exactly the way they want you to do it; borrowing loads of money buying their value added exports such as BMWs and not capitalising on the opportunities that they can’t see in their own markets. If the public sector deficit is brought under control and the global economic recovery continues things should look a lot better by the end of 2012.

Derivatives were a lot less dangerous than Fitzy and fingers; inflation of the development land bubble; with derivatives the unwinding of a position can be executed in seconds, it should theoretically never be net long or net short by more than a few percent; but purely the result of executing arbitrage opportunities when markets over-extend as they do many times an hour on most days. Lets call cause 1 the sponsors of the tent and their one way bet on land.

Lets call cause 2 the stupidity of the hosts of the tent

DUBLIN | Thu Dec 23, 2010 8:40am EST

DUBLIN Dec 23 (Reuters) – The Irish government said it would inject state funds into Bank of Ireland (BKIR.L) and Irish Life & Permanent (IPM.I) if they were unable to raise additional capital from private sources.

“We are going to have to ensure that Bank of Ireland and Irish Life also meet their capital requirements,” finance minister Brian Lenihan told state broadcaster RTE on Thursday.

“In the absence of private funding we will have to capitalise them as well.”

Lenihan also said the government would speed up the winding down of nationalised lenders Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] and Irish Nationwide [IRNBS.UL].

“We are going to have to accelerate the phasing out of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide very early in the new year.” (Reporting by Carmel Crimmins; Editing by Dan Lalor)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA173920101223?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43

What that release needed to say was that Irish Life and Permanent and Bank of Ireland are not in the same position as AIB; there is no prospect of them being nationalised under any of the current scenarios being run by any of the credit ratings agencies or bodies such as the OECD or IMF and like the successful Bank of Ireland rights issue earlier this year the markets continue to hold confidence in these institutions. The markets reacted and Bank of Ireland which was up prior to the release ended down 5.5% in New York tonight; it is still sliding in after hours trading.

Before there is nothing left standing of value in Ireland can this government please leave office; they are beyond inept it is if
they have massive short positions in everything Irish and stand to profit big style from the complete destruction of the Country. I will retain my recently built up stake in Bank of Ireland as this government will be replaced fairly soon and markets no matter what they think of the new government will not be making chimp noises on conference calls.

BTW

The point of the thread is to make architects consider where they can best deploy their considerable skill sets.

Very simple; working for Nama as your main client designing buildings of much higher quality than much the stuff that could easily be sold in a bubble environment where words like fear and housing ladder were in the same sentances at far too many dinner tables. An architect that understands quality of space and has an efficient supply chain behind them could do very well; once the economy turns. A very extensive land bank exists and much of it was designed by Liam Carrolls in house team who produced designs that very embarrasing to an urban environment in many cases. Demographics are still positive and demand is highly unlikely to remain as low as 10,000 units nationally for too long.

The entrances to DU as suggested are quite OK but the escalators should rise directly from DU up into Pearse mainline … no contention there as the Maynooth line as suggested in the DU RO goes through Pearse mainline .. and any interchanging passengers ( e.g. for St Stephens Green) go directly down escalators to the DU.

You overlook four key points

1. The space does not exist to get all passengers out of the existing and new routes; a new entrance was required.
2. No plot large enough to accomodate a new station entrance existed any closer that wasn’t a protected structure
3. No underground interchange is without underground passages
4. The existing station is on an elevated railway which increases the distance required to introduce a camber for.

The distance including escalators is about 200m from platform to platform which is well within acceptable comparable standards; on balance the new station entrance location is the best acheivable.

I

t is not a better service for a large number of “Current Dart Users”, hence it is not a better service on all lines
DU should enhance DART services for “Current Dart Users” not curtail their choice of direct destination or impose an ill thought out interchange .

As above 200m cannot be considered an ill thought out interchange, I would refer to Bank, Bond Street and Green Park in London and Gare Montparnasse in Paris as having far longer interchanges as does central in Hong Kong. I can see merit in all trains on Howth, Malahide, Drogheda & Dundalk stopping in Clontarf to create a more direct interchange for northciders using Tara St and Connolly Station but that would be an operational and not a physical infrastructure issue.

. the adverse effects of the poor design on “Current Dart Users” is so far not publicly estimated, not even by a published straw poll. To ask rail passengers if they would like a better service would be a ridiculous exercise.

Asserted poor design is not a generally held view; no doubt the DTO did significant research and I very much doubt that length of interchange scored highly in their research. The top 3 would have I would hazard a guess have been

1. More desinations
2. More frequency
3. New trains

Ask the average kid 20 years what they wanted to do later in life was a real question, answers might have included, doctor, architect, footballer or fighter pilot etc. Ask the same question now and they’d probably say x-factor winner; welcome to generation trivial.

Back to the original point, I think a differentiation needs to be made between what banks do well i.e. sell forex and interest rate swaps to solvent businesses as against lending money badly. The latter has been a national scandal and no senior manager in any Irish bank over the period should get anything other than a p45 in some cases and some people in leanding and risk management positions are overdue one given the sheer stupidity of much of the lending examples included, BoSI lending money to someone to build 125 houses at the edge of a South Donegal town; no doubt now a ghost estate.

But for the ultimate P45 overdue case for a banker; who is the genius that funded David Daly’s puchases of both River Island on Grafton St on a 2% yield even though 50% of the rental level was already over passing (i.e. acheivable) rent; his subsequent purchase of Franklin House on Pembroke Rd at a rate in excess of €100m per acre for redevelopment was simply reckless to the point of deriliction of duty.

However you cannot compare the above with Joe Swap working for BoI treasury who over many years built up loyal clients who only bought from Joe on the basis of him being good at advising his clients when the market was about to change. Joe like everyone else took out a car-loan and mortgage based on earning capacity and regarded his bonus as part of his sustainable earning stream. Why should Joe Swap pay for the sins of the culture of the Ballybritt tent? As an economy finance is the largest employer and surely regulating the manner in which bonusus are paid to smooth out performance over a 3 year period where bonuses can equally be taken back to eliminate the incentive to take excessive risks would be a much more beneficial outcome. I have real sympathy for bank tellers up and down the country who are no doubt taking it in the neck for the suicidal beaviour of Sean Fitz and Fingers et al and I would say these moderately paid people are taking it in the neck unfairly .

I also have a lot of sympathy for architects, surveyors, engineers and construction staff, you worked in an industry that in the absence of unacceptable behaviour on the basis of a small number of senior bankers would still be a profitable one; I understand your anger but I think you can focus it a lot more directly at those that really caused this mess. To pay down these loans you will need a strong financial services industry; if you demonise all finance people the good ones will leave and tell a tale of Dublin not being a town to bring skills and get rewarded, as the global economy recovers you need to attract high fliers to come in, work hard and pay tax; there are real opportunities in this sector. Disaster Myopia will not be a problem with bank lending in Ireland for a very long time to come.

There are two schools of thought in any business reputational and chancey; reputational businesses defend their reputations and behave in a responsible manner; chancey businesses ask three questions, Is it legal? Can we get away with it? If we get caught what will it cost us? I appreciate Dave’s comments as to costs, I appreciate Tommy’s thoughts that the system is a dysfunctional. I would ask why does the advertising industry get away with things in Dublin that would be financially extremely painful for chancers in Westminster; has DCC given up trying to make Dublin a leading City, why are the valuation office not assessing business rates on illegal advertising; if the city wants revenue go and assess business rates on the advertising industry it would more than fund proper enforcement it would pay to keep a few libraries and swimming pools open such is the extent of its proliferation.

In an ideal World you would have two platforms backing on to each other or at right angles; in reality you have got to work with the plots that are available, working out where access is currently weak relative to existing access and delivering the project without considerable disturbance during the construction phase. Once built a 200m walk will take the average commuter 2 minutes a distance that probably seems longer watching youtube than dodging commuters when you’re on the move.

“It is a natural corridor,” he points out.

Nope its a €3bn hole in the ground the IMF won’t sanction.

The Green Way was originally conceived in response to the 2009 report of the Government’s High-Level Action Group on Green Enterprise which stated that Ireland needed to “develop one or more green zones in order to create an environment that can support the development of green enterprise and be used to market Ireland overseas”.

Give Martin Naughton some cash and he will give you green jobs in Dunleer, so the locals don’t need to commute to Dublin; ABP recognised this when they prevented MN from even considering park n ride north of Swords. But for the fantasists this was disaster, almost 40% of projected peak ridership was conditioned out of the equation.

“We wish to create an internationally recognised green economic zone and position Ireland as a leader in the world’s most exciting and rapidly growing sector,” says Tony Boyle, chairman of the Steering Committee for An tSlí Ghlas. “The potential of this project, which builds on our existing assets and infrastructure, is that it can assist in the transformation of our economy.”

Problem solved; build it in Park West its already got a rail line….

The same government promoting this produced how many ‘sustainable bank rescues’ how many fiscal adjustements that were the final piece in the jigsaw.

I just want to see the RPA given their P45s they have nothing to offer given future fiscal constraints. The production of the railway works order for Metro West just displays they are out of control thanks to a government that is incapable of controlling anything….

The same consultants that found a motorway to a town of c3,000 people was viable, go figure

That the RPA remain on the state payroll and are able to waste more taxpayers money pushing a scheme that will not happen is indicative of a government that has failed to implement any of the elements of fiscal responsibility they keep launching with great fanfare.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/one-month-after-gala-opening-terminal-two-is-a-ghost-town-2461130.html

Terminal Two at Dublin Airport was eerily quiet yesterday

Wednesday December 15 2010

IF A tumbleweed was to roll across the shiny floor at Dublin Airport’s newly opened Terminal Two it wouldn’t seem out of place.

T2 opened last month to a fanfare of champagne-fuelled celebrations but yesterday the scene was anything but exciting.

The new terminal has nearly 40 shops, a new boarding gate, 25 departure gates and 19 new aircraft parking stands. The price tag came to €609m.

The first impression is one of space and openness. The views are panoramic and the elegant building itself is huge and sweeping, bright and airy and, unfortunately — quite empty.

Yesterday there were almost as many staff as passengers inside.

Departures was a veritable ghost town with only five check-in desks out of 56 open and a handful of lonely passengers wandering about looking lost as staff smiled benignly at them, disguising the fact they must have been bored to tears.

Upstairs in arrivals, the main restaurant, Oak Tree Cafe, was closed and the empty, large, open-plan seating area overlooking the equally empty departures floor below made for an eerie view.

At the other side of the arrivals floor, Wrights Foodcourt and Diep Noodles were the only eateries open, while Spar was doing a brisk trade.

Customers

WHSmith bookshop was devoid of browsers and the staff looked out hopefully at potential customers walking by.

“The airport is not fully operational yet,” staff told the Irish Independent. “Bored?” “Not really.”

Travel expert Eoghan Corry told the Pat Kenny show yesterday that the new terminal was “a pitiful sight” and retailers were furious about the poor business and slowness of moving flights over.

However, the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) rejected this claim.

“We have not received a single significant complaint from a retailer in T2,” a spokesman said.

“The DAA detailed the planned transfer of airline operations in mid-November and this remains the position,” he said.

The DAA also refused to disclose how many flights a day were operating from the terminal, saying this was a matter for the airlines.

Etihad was already operating their flights from T2 and Aer Lingus was running a number of flights each day in advance of moving their entire operation over on a phased basis from January.

WHSmith said they would not comment on business at their new outlet until their next sales disclosure date.

Coming from the cool vastness of T2, T1 was cramped and over-run with people but the hectic atmosphere was far from unwelcome.

After rattling around T2, T1 was much cosier, busier and had a bit of warmth.

Christmas trees adorned with lights lined the walls and people bustled by, coming and going.

In arrivals, about 25 little Christmas carollers from Scoil Bhride Junior National School Donaghmede, Dublin, sang while decked out in Santa hats and reindeer ears and for all the space-age newness and class of T2, for the moment T1 is the best one to walk into when arriving home for Christmas.

– Fiona Ellis and Aideen Sheehan

I bet the consultants on that predicted an economic benefit of 1929:1