predictions for 2007

the U2 tower will get shorter than the current proposals.

Shite apartments will be built in the most inappropriate places, such as the hinterlands of towns not served by any public transport.

Oh hang on… You said architectural predictions…

@ctesiphon wrote:

Shite apartments will be built in the most inappropriate places, such as the hinterlands of towns not served by any public transport.

Oh hang on… You said architectural predictions…

One off houses to continue at 40% of total housing output. Urban landbanks to evaporate and yes what is described above.

Phase 1 of the M500 from Glendalough via Portarlington and Granard to Monasterboyce to be built to tackle regional deprivation.

approximately 1 proposed protected or protected structure to be demolished on every Bank Holiday, bar New Years Day, not that we’ve heard of so far anyway…

Lansdowne Road to rise from the rubble slowly but spectacularly

IKEA to be refused

Point tower to be redesigned

That building at City Hall to suffer a nasty accident

Bank of Ireland’s OPUS architecture awards for 2007 will surpass their previous blunders and award the filthiest public toilet an accolade to complement the Victoria Mills (Cork) award 2005.

Tens of thousands of houses and apartments will be built this year without adherence to the EU’s energy rating directive, thanks to the Government’s procrastination on the matter – as with the delayed introduction of new building codes a couple of years ago that would have negatively affected Dublin’s shoddy hollow block construction industry.

Supposed to be introduced in January 2006, the Govt pushed the energy directive’s introduction back to January 2007 – great news for developers. Then they decided that the directive would only apply to buildings that submitted planning applications after July 1st 2006 – another fantastic stoke of luck for our friends in the building trade: wow they were onto a winning streak here. And now we hear in the past week that our ever-accommodating minister has just pushed that deadline back to December 31st 2006! Bonanza or what!

So any building that applied for permission in 2006, and this is only applied as permission may not come through until April or May at the earliest this year, will get a free run. Effectively, many thousands of apartment and housing developments being built over 2007 and 2008 will not have to be rated until 2009, with purchasers clueless as to their efficiency. Not only is it bad for consumers, it also sustains a lack of any incentive on the part of developers to use energy efficiency as a marketing tool, with the emphasis placed solely on maintaining the status quo for as long as possible.

Have a listen to Century Home’s Gerry McCaughey’s eloquent rant on the News at One today. Though a slight self-interest in the matter, in this dull news week he got a good six minutes to himself to lambaste the Government on this important matter:

http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/230-2205516.smil

@sw101 wrote:

the U2 tower will get shorter than the current proposals.

I predict – with a degree of certainty I wouldn’t usually use – that it will be developed by Liam Carroll. Don’t think it will be lower though. I think the DDDA will announce that taller buildings will be allowed in Spencer Dock and at least one other north docklands location. The Point Theatre tower redesign has already been signalled by Harry Crosbie.
Elsewhere, I guess the metro will be delayed, the Luas extension to Cherrywood will be delayed, the extension to Citywest will be ahead of schedule.
Other predictions:
Sean Dunne’s Jurys proposals will be lodged in February and will meet a mixed reaction with most people outside Ballsbridge approving and those living in immediate area opposing. Ray Grehan’s scheme will contain a lot more office use than previously expected
Academy Street will be appealed to ABP and the board will take even longer than usual to adjudicate on it
The proposed retail plan around the Westbury will come up again and again but not much progress will be made
The Grafton Street area plan will fail
Bewleys on Grafton Street will close within the next 18 months
The next applications for the Digital Hub sites will also be rejected

I think that as some medium to high-rise buildings near completion in various parts of the country we will be able to engage in some meaningful debate about the positive and negative impacts of building higher.

jdivision: “Elsewhere, I guess the metro will be delayed, the Luas extension to Cherrywood will be delayed, the extension to Citywest will be ahead of schedule”

Spot on, dunno about the Metro, I think that’s going alright, but at very early stages still. The Cherrywood line is under judicial review as it seeks to demolish a protected structure, which houses an autistic child, and oddly enough, the Jim Mansfield Citywest extension will, like most of his unauthorised developments, appear overnight…

And I predict the debacle that is the Carlton site shall be resolved in the New Year ( though not sure which one…)

@alonso wrote:

the Jim Mansfield Citywest extension will, like most of his unauthorised developments, appear overnight…

😀

And I predict the debacle that is the Carlton site shall be resolved in the New Year ( though not sure which one…)

As long as 16 Moore Street is protected this site will not be resolved it presents too much of a blockage; what was a political sop to the shinners has really gunthered the development of the core retail district.

Is that the Queen Anne Facade on Emmett Place?

@PVC King wrote:

Is that the Queen Anne Facade on Emmett Place?

Yes, I know it’s not part of O’Callaghan’s landholdings but that’s obviously the reason he didn’t buy it. At the same time it shows that you can have mass around a building without taking away from it. The long term plan will obviously be to cover Moore Street and link it to the Ilac centre so the height of Number 16 would be the natural height of the glass awning anyway and wouldn’t look out of place.

I have to disagree on two fronts

Firstly the Academy Street Scheme will decimate the context of the facade retained dolls house which as it is only a facade retention does not require that much protection my main concern with that scheme is its impact on the Crawford Gallery which is thankfully set back from the streetline. It is also a detatched or detachable property and does not form part of a terrace.

In contrast Moore Street represents the worst frontage of the entire Carlton holding and in all reality would have offered 5 – 9 stories as the Ilac Centre of all the vistas would not require any consideration.

I would imagine that the plan at this point of a cleared site would have been an internal space and there is no way that a single building retained no matter how incorporated would not be a complete disaster in engineering and visual terms.

I normally agree with you but the designation of 16 Moore Street as a National Monument is the most ridiculous thing I have heard of in listing terms whats next the interior of Funland?

@jdivision wrote:

The long term plan will obviously be to cover Moore Street and link it to the Ilac centre so the height of Number 16 would be the natural height of the glass awning anyway and wouldn’t look out of place.

I have heard the covering of Moore Street discussed a few times in recent years and I must say that I would worry about it in terms of its impact on the ‘ownership’ and control of the public realm. I also think it is worth noting how it continues to be one of Dublin’s busiest and vibrant streets whilst the Carlton saga continues. Of course this is one of the ironies of this land-massing; cheap rents have allowed a variety of different uses open up and complement the long established market functions of the street.

I agree it is definitely the most ethnically interesting street in Dublin; it has some very appealing qualities. But as we all know the most interesting business models will evolve commercially and their quirky charms will evaporate as they make profit their key driver and move away from their ethnic roots into the mass market.

As all these tenants will be on short term leases if the street is to be constrained we will probably see a South Anne St refurb done on what is much less attractive building stock.

Ultimately the shortage of large prime shop units will ensure that large operators eyeing up the Dublin market will do so from Liffey Valley phase 2 which no doubt will emerge.

Another one occurred to me on the cycle home-

I think the Council will lose the case over the illegally demolished convent, on the grounds that the notification process for Proposed PSs was slipshod. I think any half-decent barrister would be able to pick holes in whatever case the Council puts together. Unfortunately.

And I don’t think we’ve heard the last of Dartmouth Square either.

*** *** ***

jdivision-
Some of your predictions are fascinating, especially the last three. I’ll be watching this space with interest.;)

Public transport and stategic planning will continue to be ignored.

No change really.

@jdivision wrote:

Sean Dunne’s Jurys proposals will be lodged in February and will meet a mixed reaction with most people outside Ballsbridge approving and those living in immediate area opposing.

I wonder if DCC will be forced to develop a local area development plan just for the jurys / vet site alone due to it’s mass?

They would struggle if the headline zone A rates were applied but a prime zone A rate would imply a new unit or a maximum encumbrance of a period facade.

It will I am sure be successfully argued that Bewleys by virtue of the protections laid down in the development plan is not an enencumbered property. If the arbitrator were to unfairly ignore the development plan and if the tenant did not seek a juducial review then the business model would struggle if imappropriate comparisons were drawn.

@wearnicehats wrote:

I wonder if DCC will be forced to develop a local area development plan just for the jurys / vet site alone due to it’s mass?

It’s already at pre-draft consultation stage. Not that it will matter. It will be written by Sean Dunne’s Planning Consultants, and will state that buildings will be no higher than 35 storeys, no limits on density, site coverage, plot ratio, no social and affordable houisng (it’s bringing Knightsbridge to Ballsbridge after all) etc etc.

Then all the residents will hire their own consultants a la Lansdowne Road, and they’ll draft their submissions. Words will be had. Compromi$e$ will be reached. And Sean Dunne will get his wish. Not necessarily a bad thing, mind you. That part of town is damn ugly and those hotels need to be razed. As long as their replacements aren’t bloody awful too I suppose

In contrast Moore Street represents the worst frontage of the entire Carlton holding and in all reality would have offered 5 – 9 stories as the Ilac Centre of all the vistas would not require any consideration.

Judging by the FI Request, the Carlton site is going to have to have regard to the new development at Moroe Mall shortly.

Permission is being sought to demolish most of Moore Mall in the ILAC Centre and to construct an 8 storey over 3 levels of basement mixed use retail and residential scheme. FI Planners Report describes the scheme as ‘bold’, ‘unashamedly contemporary in style’ and ‘if permitted would set a benchmark for the quality of development that is expected within this area’.

2007

Under the National Development Plan, the Metro will be extended to serve IKEA in Belfast, as part of a cross-community initiative and to relieve possible future bottlenecks on the M50. The Metro will also stop at Aldergrove, due to continuing delay to the terminal and runway developments at Dublin Airport.

Baggage cars will be ordered for addition to the LUAS, not so much for airport passengers as for the IKEA customers making transit connections.

An Taisce will complain that the proposed route interferes with the Battle of the Boyne site. The DUP will complain of improper interference with a necessary infrastructural initiative. Archaeological excavation there will reveal that King James II had a plan to make Dublin the capitol of the British Isles, using the Carlton site as his palace.

Bishop Magee will propose to erect a new Cathedral for the 21st century, using design, build and operate procedures and on a Greenfield site.

A housing crisis, rather similar to that that gave rise to Ballymun, will be triggered by a number of incidents with over obese children becoming trapped in Section 24 apartments.

A car will drive the wrong way down the Port Tunnel and emerge safely, due to lack of traffic.

There will be an exhibition in the RIAI for which there is some promotional advertising, so that there are more than two people there at any time.

😡

Planning policy in Cork City will undergo radical change during 2007. A Putsch is currently being planned in City Hall. The current sale at Easons in Patrick’s Street of large quanitities of a book called Mein Kampf may have a remote connection with 2007 erkommenon.

Bishop Magee has abandoned Mallow Town Park as a site for a new Cathedral because he cannot affort to buy it from the Jephson brothers and because Mallow Town Council is resisting plans to rename it Venezuela.

Cobh Town Council will voluntarily close itself down to prevent its new Italian architect developing a rival to the Piazza dei Cinquecento.

I predict that the trend for county councillors to relentlessly sue for height reductions in almost all spheres of architectural development in this country shall be savagely, and righteously reversed.

Now, under laws passed by our chambers of legislature in the House of Leinster, all county councillors shall have MANDATORY height reductions. This will take the form of the banning of stiletto heels for female ccs(and wayward male ones too) and the obligatory decommisioning of all male ccs lower legs.

This reform will have the appreciable impact of lowering the visual impact of our local governors and reduce the shadowing effect they have on their hapless staff and common person.

This backlash will, I believe, avange all those mutilated stumps of once proud architectural sketches dotted around the country, whose only shackles to being who they really were by the agonising tunnel-vision of our esteemed local government.

Bishop Magoo sells off St.Colman’s for 1 Euro to the FOSCC and heads off and sets up an Iconoclasm Colony on Spike Island. Alas due to bridge building being cancelled and high ferry costs, Denis the Menace Reidy has taken on Ferryman job in a 2nd hand currach.

Bishop hits the news again with his cunning re-ordering plans for Spike which he intends setting up a Vatican II Theme Park (incorporating the now popular franchise ‘Lithurigal Anomalyland’).
A 2nd currach will be put in place and vocations for 2nd ferry rowers are now being considered.

Bishop appoints ‘Changing Rooms’ star Lawrence Llewlyn-Bowen as chief Prison Cell re-ordering designer. Mr. L.B. promises only to use the best MDF, with central altar in middle of square in moulded plastic, maintenance free and as close to the congregation as possible (can be moved to pier on bad days to get closer to congregation should they be delayed on currach run to island).