Re: Re: transport21

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#799060
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Keymaster

We are in reality; the population density does not add up to the demand forecast.

Explain how a population of 44,200 people, 2,600 parking spaces plus an airport with 20m p.a.x will deliver 35m passengers per year.

I am going to keep posting the material below until you answer the question

http://www.rpa.ie/Documents/Metro%20North/Metro%20North%20RO%20Oral%20Hearing%20Evidence/MN%20RO%20Oral%20Hearing%20Evidence%2001042009/MN%20Oral%20Hearing%20Presentation%20Transport%20Model%20Dave%20King%20030409.pdf

There are three key flaws in this document firstly it does not give annual predictions for any location purely hourly capacity.

Secondly population density; the stated population density is 1,300 people per square kilometre on the route; taking 1 kilometre as being a realisitc walking distance the catchment of Metro North would be 34 square Kilometres which would give a catchment of 44,200 people

Thirdly the EIS that you kindly posted a link to lists a total of 2600 car spaces which is you give ridership figures of 1.5 cars per day only produces 3,900 journeys per day or assuming a six day week an annual total of 1.216m per year.

Add 8m airport passengers and you see that the 54,127 figure I gave by including all potential electoral wards as opposed to the sections of those wards that were convenient was a very safe bet.

Real demand based on the RPAs own figures in annual terms would be catchment 7.596m, Airport 8m and park and ride 1.216m or a total of 16.812m

Finally compare Budapest with a population density of 3,500 people per square kilometre and Metro North with a population density some 37% of the Budapest figure but Metro North has an hourly capacity 51.5% higher than a line with three times the catchment.

I am really starting to have my doubts as to how this project ever got off the ground; Luas is deemd adequate with a capacity of 4,650 per hour on the same population density.

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