Re: Re: transport21

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@marmajam wrote:

Of course a very rapidly expanding Swords will add a huge amount of passengers to MN.

It is clear that the opponents of MN have an agenda. Their sums do not add up so we are regaled with invented figures.

The population of Swords is 37,767 of which less than half live within walking distance of a proposed metro stop. Assuming a usage rate of 40% which is high that would deliver 7,553 commuters or 3.39m annual journeys. That is an annual passenger revenue of €7.8m we are talking about a €2bn project with annual financing costs of €115m; €7.8m is 6.78% of the interest bill it is insignificant.

If the Metro demand analysis was for 24.4m passengers without Swords then it is significantly flawed. Taking the 8m airport passengers away it assumes 16.4m passengers between Ballymun and Drumcoundra travelling to the City Centre. That assumes that a population of 91,100 live within a mile of stops at Santry, Ballymun, DCU, Griffith Avenue, Drumcoundra, Mater Hospital.

The Actual population according to the 2006 census is

Mounjoy 7,206
Drumcoundra 8,637
Grace Park 5,925
Whitehall 12,842
Ballymun 19,517

Total 54,127

http://beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=75472

If 40% usage patterns bear out and each commuter makes 450 trips per year this section of the route would deliver c9.74m passengers add that to the 3.39m Swords adds and the 8m the airport adds and a figure of 20.13m is the level of demand that you would actually get.

Swords does not justify a metro, the best way to connect the City Centre to the Airport is via the Northern Line as it offers a differential pricing model that would add an additional €16m p.a. in revenue. Luas to Ballymun would no doubt be able to handle the 9.74m passenger journeys that section would generate.

The 24.3m is clearly out of date and predicated on development patterns that never happened and won’t happen anytime in my lifetime. There is simply nowhere to put that quantum of development along the alignment.

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