Re: Re: transport21

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@marmajam wrote:

where did the RPA mention 3bn?

or any cost?. you’ve been stitched up by Frankie MacDonald.

Paul Melia is the source and is a very different type of journalist to FmD. Nobody even the RPA was talking about Metro costing less than €3bn. Even accepting a €2bn cost which is the lowest put into the public domain by any credited source and the economics don’t work. less than 25m passengers and an annual debt service bill of €115m; a subvention exceeding €4.70 per passenger just to cover the interest bill is simply unacceptable.

@marmajam wrote:

at 87m interest pa it is a little more than 2.50 Euros per ticket.
Pretty reasonable in 2016..

The costs will be at least €2bn; the rate of interest will be 5.75% as it will not be senior debt and the number of passengers estimated at 24.4m. That delivers an interest only cost of €4.70 per passenger. Given that Dart loses money operationally it is safe to assume that this service would as well. At least €5 per passenger journey in losses; per commuter you are asking the taxpayer to pay €5 per journey 10 times a week 47 weeks a year or €2,350 per commuter per year.

@marmajam wrote:

There is no metro system in the world barring Singapore that breaks even..

London Underground made money in 2007.

@marmajam wrote:

Any subvention will be very short lived – MN is for up to 200 years..

No project can be assessed on a 200 year timeframe; show one railway study where a 200 year timeframe has been used.

the operational costs however will continue to rise and as the project will lose money operationally year on year; in the interim construction activity will not pick up to anything like the levels
and the population

@marmajam wrote:

The bigger picture has to be addressed.

Poor quality public transport in Dublin is cited by investors as one of the main drawbacks to investing here. You have to laugh at the idea of the RPA sneaking in some overpriced scheme while nobody is looking. The project has been analysed to death in the DoT and by the OTC. The RPA can do nothing. It did not occur to you that if your projected/invented sums meant an average ticket price of 6 Euros plus there might be a flaw in your calculations?.

Interest alone of €4.70 per ticket; average Dart fare of €2.30 would give a break even point above €7 per ticket. I am all for a fair level of subvention maybe €1.50 – €2.50 per ticket in interest cover. Compare this project to the Airport Dart Spur

Cost €400m
Interest €23m
Passengers 8m (20m airport passengers * 40% usage)
Cost per passenger €2.875
Ticket Price to Airport €4.30
Ticket Price to Malahide €2.30

Subvention per ticket €0.875

@marmajam wrote:

Dear me. It’s glib to slag off our esteemed betters and ‘experts’ as if everything they propose is stupid but they are certainly no more stupid than braneless message board posters who think they know it all with just a bit of a quick think.

It’s difficult not to get somewhat personal in your case/ I happen to know enough about this project to see that you simply invent facts and data to back up your arguments.

There’s no end to it.

MN has benn CBAed on the CONSERVATIVE estimate of 34 million passengers per year.
Where did you get 23 million from?
It actually has the capacity to carry more than 100 million passengers per year..

The relevant section is in the last pararagraph in Page 11; the authors are the RPA.

@marmajam wrote:

Given that the DART and Luas have been much more successful than predicted it wouldn’t be wise to expect something different with a high quality facility like MN.

20 years after construction it will carry 50-60 million passengers per year.

Dart cost £115m or €300m in todays values

Luas after an initial budget of €288 and cost close to €800m in the end for two lines serving two seperate development corridors.

Where are the 60m passengers going to come from?

Dublin Airport even assumioming growth to 30m p.a.x. will never generate more than 12m rail trips based on International modelling.

Ballymun with a population of 19,517 will deliver possibly 7,806 commuters
Swords with a population of 37,767 over 3,476 Hectares will deliver 15,107 commuters. Between both these settlements you have c10.3m annual passenger journeys; the airport will currently deliver about 8m journeys; which presumes that journeys between other points along the rest of the route will deliver about 6.1m journeys.

The 60m figure you mention assumes an additional 80,000 commuters along the route from a population of 200,000 people.

Where are you going to put 200,000 people along this route?

Metro North at a cost of €2bn serves a City Centre Section as far as Drumcoundra that is all within a 15 minute walk of the network.

A University set amongst a residential density of roughly 16 to the acre, a planned town of 19,517 people, some out of town retail units and warehouses, an airport and an urban sprawl of 37,767 the majority of which is beytond 15 minutes walk from the proposed alignment. A route section that is sandwiched bewtween a motorway and an existing rail line.

In development terms Metro North is vastly inferior to the corridor between Heuston and Adamstown or Blanchardstown and Pace.

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