Re: Re: The Building Boom Is Over!
@PVC King wrote:
18 hours after Fannie and Freddie were re-nationalised I sold all my banking stock bought the previous Thursday at a good profit; 12% on an opening bell is unsustainable; I bought them back today between 5 and 8% lower the 4% is sustainable. The effect of moving 8% of top 30 banks balance sheet assets from ailing mortgage lender junk bonds trading at 250 bps above t-bills has increased which is what the Fed has done by gauranteeing the assets of Fannie and Freddie; it has increased the value of these institutions massively at a time when their tier 1 capital positions were heading in the wrong direction. After another 40% fall this evening Lehman will be rightsized by KKR and another couple of private equity firms; my fingers remain crossed for all that work there it is tough environment to look for a job if you are in your late 30’s or older.
The low point was 14 July 2008 – it gets better from here for finance, in a year for retail and 2 years for property
Fingers crossed Lehman survives and 28,000 jobs are saved and that a line can be drawn in the sand that the last major European / G8 bank is in danger of collapse by rumour; no matter how bad a bundle of mortgages are 80% will never default yet this is what is causing the current bout of irrational psychology.
If your designing buildings as badly as your calling the bottom for financial stocks then that explains a few clangers i see on the urban Irish landscape .
Maybe you didnt see the market meltdown yesterday . bye bye Lehman… S&P hits 52 week low and falling
It looks like all that rational finger crossing and upbeat optimism of yours and others was not able to save Lehman from that irrational and pessimistic Q3 $4Billion loss i was talking about.
Im not surprised, most architects are programmed to be so far removed from clients requirements and actual societys needs that they would also be removed from basic financial instruments. that ivory tower sure is crowded ..
back to the thread topic
Theres was no expectation that alot of money would produce alot of quality buildings. There was an expectation that alot of money would produce alot of buildings and thereby give the best oppurtunity in decades for some signature creations, It hasnt happened, buidlings are badly designed, some badly built, unfitting to their purpose and in locations un-serviced by integrated transport systems.
The failings of the banking industry are mirrored in the failings of the architectural associations, what we got in effect was a bunch of sub-prime and credit default swap architecture, The buidlings constructed during the Celtic tiger boom were so highly leveraged in starchitect archi-speak bullshit and the chase for the next contract/shekels few if any dared burst the illususory bubble that somehow these buildings were even half decent.