The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby PVC King » Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:19 am

alonso wrote:PVC how are you saying it clearly does not stack up. Have you got the exact costs and the land use forecasts for the corridor? Wthout these we're all just throwing out suggestions and conjecture. Both sides have valid arguments but without the figures no-one can state something as fact,


Land values are irrelvant as development land only has a value when their is demand fr the end use product. The figures demand side are truely terrible; the worst we have seen for decades take for example retail sales down 6% yoy; the banks on their knees and unable to lend for all but the securest propositions.

The three top banks have fallen in value from €30bn 18 months ago to about €5bn today. Where have you been for the last 12 months? Retail yields a year ago were 2% this week a building will be released on Grafton Street but since you are such an expert on the property market I'll let you clarify the yield quoted.

When the banks are again lending for spec dev you will have a point but that point is years away and the type of scenario seen between 1995-2005 where any development stacked up is never coming back.

I disagree, like in London people will get crosstown buses to use it, people will drive from Dundalk to the first stop (wherever it is in the end) as will people from Drogheda and most of Meath. People from Finglas to Coolock and possibly Darndale will get buses to it because of regularity of service and journey time.


People in London don't use buses to cross town; a typical journey would be Heathrow - Canary Wharf which involves Heathrow Express; change to Hammersmith & City line and then Jubilee Line which takes an hour; cross rail will cut this to 30 mins; its alignment has a number of brownfield sites capable of releasing 5,000 units each where significant development contributions will come from. I further don't buy that someone from Dundalk is going to park North of Swords vs the Airport and even if they did would you want the park and ride facility clogged up with long stay parking?

This project needs to be assessed on the basis of current demand and contemporary development levels; above all it must be assessed on the basis of capital cost per annual passenger and ranked against all other transport projects on the table. Blind faith predicated on 90,000 home per year output is so out of date reality now exists for the first time in a generation.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby alonso » Mon Nov 17, 2008 12:37 pm

PVC i wasn't referring to land values forecasts, lanmd use forecasts - ie the size of the catchments
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby jdivision » Mon Nov 17, 2008 4:22 pm

PVC King wrote:People in London don't use buses to cross town; a typical journey would be Heathrow - Canary Wharf which .


That's not what I meant. People regularly get the tube and then switch to buses. It's why your day pass on the underground is valid on the buses.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby JoePublic » Mon Nov 17, 2008 8:26 pm

PVC King wrote:This project needs to be assessed on the basis of current demand and contemporary development levels


Why? It won't even be finished till, at best, 2013, more likely 2014 or 2015. Surely then the country will have come through some sort of recovery. At which time we'll all be moaning again about our creaking infrastructure and continued sprawl due to lack public transport infrastructure to support high density developments etc etc.

This metro will be a huge asset for the city for hundreds of years.

Just build the flippin thing already. Every other (half-way decent) country in the world can do it for god's sake
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby PVC King » Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:19 pm

jdivision wrote:That's not what I meant. People regularly get the tube and then switch to buses. It's why your day pass on the underground is valid on the buses.


Integrated ticketing now that would be something; how would that affect the maths behind the viability


PVC i wasn't referring to land values forecasts, lanmd use forecasts - ie the size of the catchments


Idaho 1928 please discuss land use
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby alonso » Tue Nov 18, 2008 12:06 am

huh?
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby PVC King » Tue Nov 18, 2008 5:52 am

The reference is the 1930's dust bowl and the lack of land use.

Land use is a product of economic demand and follows economic activity it is never something that can be assumed to alter organically. It never moves at a constant rate and is likely to see its most static period or highest rate of disintensification in 50 years over the next 10.

A fair assumption would be 20,000 housing units nationally per annum over the next decade of which 10,000 p.a. will be one off houses, 5,000 will be in Connaught / Munster / outer Leinster leaving 5,000 units pa in Leinster. If output falls to 5,000 units in the entire GDA what share will be built in a strip 2 miles wide and 10 miles long; what propospective homeowner will want a sustainable box when you can snap up a spacious pile for a fraction of the cost of 2006 prices?

We are in a different era now and all projects must be reassessed
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby alonso » Tue Nov 18, 2008 10:19 am

yeh fair points PVC, but we live in hope that the zoning process will one day target development towards the right places ie rail corridors and perhaps a smaller ratio will be made up of one-offs and unsuitabel development in one-horse towns all over the State. Hope not expectation.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby Service charge » Tue Nov 25, 2008 5:00 pm

I see the hoardings have gone up around the Fusiliers Arch on the Green. Dublin is going to be a depressing city for the next few years.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby JoePublic » Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:14 pm

Service charge wrote:I see the hoardings have gone up around the Fusiliers Arch on the Green. Dublin is going to be a depressing city for the next few years.


On the contrary, if metro north goes ahead there will be an air of excitement and anticipation about the city.

You will be right about Dublin being a depressing city - if nothing new is built as looks likely.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby ihateawake » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:00 pm

I agree joe, and people will have a new appreciation for the city once the hoardings come back down, espeically if there is a shiny new train system underneath.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby alonso » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:14 pm

pfff, about damn time. It's not actual construction, it's most likely ground investigations as they have yet to get the go ahead from either the Bord, or indeed the bean counters at Finance and Transport.

Funny how hoardings can be seen as depressing by some. The way things are going it won't be long before we're crying out for hoardings around the city, a sure sign, next only to cranes, that the economy is moving and growth is occurring.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby Fergal » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:25 pm

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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby alonso » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:46 pm

ah sure may as well chuck it up here

" wrote:As part of the Metro North Railway Order application process, Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) placed the Metro North Railway Order application on display on the 17th of September 2008. If granted this Railway Order will allow the RPA to construct, operate and maintain a metro line between Belinstown in North County Dublin and St. Stephen’s Green in Dublin City Centre via Dublin Airport.

To enable us to build the proposed underground station at St. Stephen’s Green, RPA is now undertaking a limited level of investigative and survey works over the coming weeks.

We are digging an exploratory trench to show how the Fusiliers’ Arch foundations were constructed and we are carrying out a full digital survey of the monument. The Fusiliers’ Arch was built in 1907 and commemorates the soldiers of the Royal Irish Fusiliers who died in the Boer War 1899-1902. This work will take approximately five days and will allow the RPA to develop the best possible method of protecting the Fusiliers’ Arch during the proposed station construction.

Pedestrian access via Fusiliers’ Arch to St Stephen’s Green will be maintained during the works.

Other monuments will also be surveyed in the coming weeks, including those of Lord Ardilaun, Robert Emmet and the O’Donovan Rossa Memorial.

RPA will also be carrying out a digital survey of the Pulham Rock surrounding the North West Lake and island. This will involve draining the lake for five days. All affected wildfowl will be temporarily relocated to the adjacent east lake by the Office of Public Works for the duration of the survey work.

Pulham and Son were one of the foremost landscape gardeners of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. They specialised in the creation of picturesque rock gardens, constructed from both natural and artificial rock, as was the fashion of the time. The Pulham Rock and associated features were constructed here in the 1880’s. The survey will be carried out, in conjunction with detailed historical research and materials’ analysis to help devise the best system for removing and later reinstating the Island which is necessary to build the metro stop.
In consultation with the Office of Public Works, the Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government, Dublin City Council and the National Museum of Ireland, RPA will assess all information gathered to minimise the impact of all works.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby missarchi » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:48 pm

The big dig:D how deep they want to dig nobody knows!
Thats a nice arch into the green... it lasted what 100 years?
I think the RPA are trying to be more proactive now...
Im still curious if this is an RPA position

http://www.jobsarchitect.com/index.php?post_id=1241

Chief Architect - Ireland
Posted by: Collins McNicholas

Posted date: 2008-Oct-29

Location: Dublin, Ireland

Requirements:
Appropriately qualified Architect, with a minimum 10 years Senior level experience


Experience management of large team(s) in a multi-disciplinary multi-project based environment.
Experience working on high-profile large-scale projects.
Knowledge of Institutional Frameworks / bodies in Ireland is a benefit
Experience of working on railway infrastructure and / or urban design projects an advantage.
CAD proficiency is essential – Microstation / AutoCad desirable.
Full membership of a relevant professional body, e.g. RIAI, RIBA, APM, ILI ( or IFLA associated body)
Excellent (internal and external) communication skills required.

mabye we will end up in afgan kabul :D

http://www.jobsarchitect.com/index.php?post_id=1248
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby PVC King » Sun Nov 30, 2008 8:35 am

The Pulham Rock and associated features were constructed here in the 1880’s. The survey will be carried out, in conjunction with detailed historical research and materials’ analysis to help devise the best system for removing and later reinstating the Island which is necessary to build the metro stop.


It has far from been proven why this area needs to be removed to build a metro stop; indeed it is far from proven that this project can even break even in operational terms let alone service a debt mountain of c€4-5bn.

What is required is that the emperor prove that he is wearing clothes and that if found to be wild fowl that he be relocated to CIE or FAS.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby Fergal » Mon Dec 01, 2008 1:01 am

Why should it have to break even in operational terms? Almost no public transport in the entire world covers its operational costs. The DART doesn't, Dublin bus doesn't, the London Underground doesn't, and the New York Subway doesn't come within an asses roar of covering even half its operating costs.

The reason for building it is the life benefits it gives to the people using it, and businesses that will profit from easier access, and better land uses resulting from increasing densities along it's route.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby missarchi » Mon Dec 01, 2008 1:45 am

even banks, pension funds, and governments around the world cannot break even and they can print money!!! Im sorry you have no pension due to fluctuations have a nice day...:D
the day the bank manager and staff go personal guarantors on deposits and pensions I will be laughing all the way to the bank...

on a side note strategic infrastructure deserves strategic planning with strategic architecture minus strategic advertising I hope we can all agree on that;) Im still humming about the college green interchange but that is more so related to inter connector and making people in docklands a little less happy...

The last 5 years have been how high can you go now for architects its how low can you go...
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby PVC King » Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:07 pm

Fergal wrote:Why should it have to break even in operational terms? Almost no public transport in the entire world covers its operational costs. The DART doesn't, .


The Dart did make a profit operationally until an election promise of extending Dart to Greystones was implemented post 1996

Fergal wrote:the London Underground doesn't,


Excluding fleet replacement for rolling stock built pre 1960 LUL turns a profit; the wider TfL loses money however most of that is due to running buses in Greying suburbs reminiscant of most of the proposed route for metro.

Fergal wrote:and the New York Subway doesn't come within an asses roar of covering even half its operating costs.


Funny that a google search for New York Subway subvention or operating subsidy doesn't reveal a figure beyond the overall 'mass transit subsidy' of $770m p.a.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE0DF173DF93BA25756C0A963958260

That is a total subvention of $38.50 per citizen per year for all forms of transit combined; on that basis to extrapolate these figures the total subsidy in New York for commuter rail, subway and bus totals $38.5m total assuming a population of 1m people i.e. Dublin / North Kildare / South Meath North Wickla.

You point to build it and they will ocme at a time when global purchasing managers indexes are averaging 35 or a 30% decline in year on year output. The financing costs on this project at government bond rates would be €200m per year assuming that it even broke even.

You propose a subvention of 5.19 times the overall subvention per citizen in New York for all transit networks inluding subway, commuter rail and bus just to build a single line.

If that's what passes for viability I'm glad I pay my tax elsewhere
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby Fergal » Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:33 pm

I would be interested to hear your sources for that. As far as I know the DART has never been profitable, although that is partly because the initial investment of the infrastructure is still on it's books as a loan to be serviced from operating expenses. The cost of extending to Greystones can hardly have been that significant - it doesn't even get a full service.

A sourced table of figures from WIkipedia gives the proportion of operating costs met directly by fares - basically no European public transport operator is breaking even on operating expenses. Some of the sources are quite old however.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio

And as for the Metro, the 5 billion figure that was obtained from a FOI request is the total PPP contract cost to build the system and operate it for 30 years, including buying rolling stock, paying drivers, manning stations, and maintaining equipment. I've heard that the actual capital cost of the infrastructure will be roughly 2 billion. Now, I doubt a PPP is the best way to finance a project like this, but it does mean that no money is owed by the state until the system is built and it is operating. 5 billion over 30 years is a lot less than 5 billion tomorrow, whatever way you look at it.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby notjim » Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:48 pm

PVC King wrote:You point to build it and they will ocme at a time when global purchasing managers indexes are averaging 35 or a 30% decline in year on year output. The financing costs on this project at government bond rates would be €200m per year assuming that it even broke even.

You propose a subvention of 5.19 times the overall subvention per citizen in New York for all transit networks inluding subway, commuter rail and bus just to build a single line.



Ah but now you are comparing recurrent and capital costs; we don't know if the MN will break operationally, nobody has said, but it isn't useful to compare the operation subsidy of the long build NY underground with the debt servicing cost of MN.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby JoePublic » Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:57 pm

PVC King wrote:If that's what passes for viability I'm glad I pay my tax elsewhere


Tax exile or emigrant? Just curious.
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby missarchi » Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:16 am

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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby missarchi » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:36 pm

underwater sky lights!
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Re: The destruction of St. Stephen's Green

Postby Morlan » Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:36 pm

Now we can see all the discarded Dutch Gold cans and other miscellaneous junk.
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