Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

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Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby onq » Tue Jan 25, 2011 12:16 am

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre ... ing11.html

German services sector expands

"Germany's private sector expanded this month at its fastest rate since June 2006 after business in the services industry offset a dip in activity among manufacturers, a purchasing managers' survey showed today."

Can architecture be far behind?

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Re: Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby missarchi » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:40 am

If only architecture could be involved in economic formulas...
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Re: Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby onq » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:49 pm

I think the trouble is that it was deeply involved in the last set of economic formulas, and still hasn't managed to extricate itself from them. :problem:

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Re: Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby PVC King » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:36 pm

Germany is in a sweet spot right now as an export led economy, helped by the troubles on the periphery dragging down the Euro and keeping inflation and by implication interest rates down simultaneously. That won't last either the periphery fails and the German banking system collapses or burdens the german taxpayer to the same extent as Ireland or the periphery recovers and inflation picks up and the competitive advantage goes.

When you look at the real players keeping their currencies down i.e. China with the peg, the USA with QE, Germany with Merkels mouth, is Sarko not the odd one out?

Sarkozy says bets against euro will lose money
Updated: 12:01, Thursday, 27 January 2011

The French President says investors who bet against the euro will get their fingers burned.

1Investors who bet against the euro will get their fingers burned because France and Germany are utterly determined to defend the currency, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said today.

Sarkozy, who chairs both the G20 global economic forum and the Group of Eight major industrialised economies, told the World Economic Forum in Davos that Paris and Berlin would take new steps in European economic integration in the coming weeks.

'To those who would bet against the euro, watch out for your money because we are fully determined to defend the euro,' he said.
'Mrs (German Chancellor Angela) Merkel and I will never - do you hear me, never - let the euro fall,' he told the assembled business and political leaders.

'To imagine we would abandon it is to understand nothing about the psychology of European countries that fought each other in wars for decades. This is an issue of (European) identity,' Sarkozy said.

His call for a new international monetary system has met a cool response from the US, which sees it as a drive to undermine the dollar's dominance. But Sarkozy said no one was trying to undermine the dollar which would remain the world's main reserve currency.

Business leaders cautiously optimistic on euro zone

European executives attending the Davos forum voiced cautious optimism that the euro zone debt crisis will be resolved without contagion spreading to Spain or investors being forced to take unbearable losses.

Policymakers from the US, the European Union and the financial sector are due to focus on Europe's debt woes at a series of private meetings and discussion panels at the annual World Economic Forum later today.

But a year after the Greek fiscal crisis dominated Davos, leading to bail-outs for Greece in May and Ireland in December, business leaders say expectations are growing that the EU is readying effective action to help weaker members of the single currency area and restore confidence in the financial sector.

'We're positive the euro will continue to exist as a currency and the euro zone countries will work out their problems overall,' Dieter Wemmer, chief financial officer of insurer Zurich Financial said.

Private bondholders might be asked to take a write-down, known as a haircut, on some southern euro zone countries' sovereign bonds, he said, but it would not entail big losses.

EU leaders are expected to adopt a comprehensive package of measures at a summit in late March involving reforms to its rescue fund, tougher fiscal discipline rules and commitments to structural economic reforms to improve competitiveness.

In an interview with Reuters Insider television yesterday, European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet called for a strengthening of the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility 'both in quantity and in quality'. He said the fund should be made as flexible as possible and allowed to buy troubled countries' bonds.

The ECB has bought €76.5 billion in Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds since May to stabilise the euro zone bond market, as well as providing cheap liquidity to those countries' banks. But it is looking to exit those emergency policies.

Many economists say Greece's debt burden is unsustainable and will have to be restructured or rescheduled sooner or later. Athens hotly denies any such intention but is pressing for more time to repay its €110 billion EU/IMF rescue package and a lower interest rate.

Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP, the world's biggest advertising company, said he was struck by the increased faith among economists and executives in the euro zone's ability to overcome its problems.

'One thing about Davos is there seems to be a bit of restrained optimism,' he said, noting that even sceptics such as US economist Nouriel Roubini were more upbeat on the euro zone.


€1:$1.20 gone; €1:$1.40 soon or will Merkel speak again and get the bloc back to €1:$1.20 or even lower?

The sad thing is that Ireland until 2002 or so had a lot more in common with Germany or Taiwan than our current bedfellows of Greece and Portugal, we exported a lot, had low personal, corporate and national debt. Then FF completely lost the run of themselves and you all know the rest; the question is how many people will give them another mandate?

I look at Enda Kenny's offer of a five way television debate; he should simply have offered the two parties closest to him in the polls the opportunity by my reckoning that would have been Labour and Sinn Fein.

Send a clear statement to the markets, a new government that will spend a lot less, spread the tax burden to all earning above €10k and reward hard work and enterprise; with a restored reputation there is no doubt we can look like Taiwan again, an enterprise freindly island sitting off a very large market and exporting competitively all over the World and bringing prosperity to the region.
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Re: Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby onq » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:14 pm

Sarkozy reminds me of Mini Bush mouthing off against al-Q'ida sayign "bring it on".

Stupid git.

I agree with your general viewpoint but not the detail.

Below €20,000 a family is merely paying bills.

They have no disposable income at all.

I presume you earn a lot more than this.

If you were on €20,000 you'd not have said that.

The real "sin" in terms of income tax is the "stateless" ones who pay no tax.

Under 183 days anywhere and you don't have to pay tax AFAICS - one of my clients told me.

So I may stand corrected, but if this is the case, then its pretty clear that some super-rich pay no tax at all.

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Re: Achtung Baby - Go East, Young Man...

Postby PVC King » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:00 pm

You misinterpret my position on tax at €10k; I completely support a state that takes with one hand i.e. taxing any earnings above €200 per week; equally one wants to see families supported with top up payments; take a married couple where the husband earns €15k and the wife is exclusively a home maker; in the pre Lenihan Bros days they probably both earned good cash, have a mortgage and are putting 2 kids through school. Not only would you want to see the €15k topped up, you'd want to see help with the mortgage and childrens allowance of some form to give a quality of life. If benefits exceed earnings you wouldn't expect them to work for a negative return.

Where I have a problem is the 18 year old earning €15k who lives at home and contributes nothing at all whilst people on c€30k are paying 48% of their income in tax.

The issue of tax haven ex-pats is an inequitable one; but a bit like investment banking can only be regulated if all countries move together simultaneously; no country wants to disadvantage themselves by having their tax dodgers renounce their citizenship, getting a cypriot or maltese passport and still visiting when they feel like it. I do concede for a taxpayer earning €31,000 paying 48% tax and having a mortgage in negative equity it must really rattle their cage. Maybe if Sarko stopped banging on about corporation tax and went after ex-pats resident on a list of tax haven states and limited calculable days to an EEA geographical zone including dominions and shortened the number of days to say 28 days then a populist tax may emerge that may serve the butress numerous vulnerable positions across the developed World including the US and peripheral Europe.

When I worked in the UK on £20k I paid tax at up to a 20% tax rate plus the equivelent of PRSI; not a lot of surplus cash after the rent was paid but you got on with it and worked your way out of there. Whatever way you look at it, you need to spend a lot less and tax a lot more, if you tax above 48% or at 48% below 30k people who have options will just leave and weaken productive capacity when the upturn arrives; and be clear a big upturn will be required over the next 10 years.

Lenihan Bros broke the economy, now the vultures like Sarko and Merco are circling and the only question is where to spread the pain. The very big question how do you deliver measures that spread pain without the taxation being counter productive to the point of cutting the revenue basis or spending cuts being so savage that they leave the country with unacceptable service provision in specific essential areas.

Metro North!!!!!!!!!
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