PVC King wrote:
The demand numbers at peak in the 2010 CBA were 3,640 maximum at any time in any direction and this allowed for 2% yoy growth from 2010 to 2015; take out the 666 passengers using Bellinstown and Lissenhall stops which are no longer part of the project and the route has less than 3,000 maximum intra journey deamnd at peak time; remove even 25% of the 700 people at Seatown stop which was deemed unneccessary and you are in the order of 2,800 maximum hourly demand in 5 years time.
Luas has a capacity of 6,000 peak demand; take growth at 2% and it is future proofed for over 38 years; take it at a much more optimistic 5% and it is future proofed for 15 years. If after 10 years the 5% is hit then plans can be made to build an alternative underground route from Northwood into the City Centre plugging in the Eastern Route option that was rejected as the original Luas destination of Ballymun was endorsed.
As I said to you before, the RPA under-estimates demand all the time. They had to lengthen the trams on the Luas to meet the demand the RPA didn't foresee along the routes of the Red and Green Line. The same will happen with Metro North as people flock to a high-capacity, very reliable and rapid rail transport. Luas isn't future-proofed, it's jampacked at the minute and has very little spare capacity just 6 years after being completed. If we were to build your fantasy Luas line then it too would be packed in less than a decade and then we'd have to build Metro North anyway because the trams would be too full. What you're proposing is the rail equivalent of the two-lane M50. Build a lukewarm shadow of what's needed and then build what is needed 10 years later at twice the cost.
If Metro North is dropped, as you so crazily hope, then that is the end of any plans for any rail line of any kind connecting the city centre to the airport and city centre for the next 20 years. They will not suddenly adopt Luas as an alternative to Metro North like you suggest, it will be completely dropped and the only discussion about rail links to the airport will be in transport engineering lectures in DIT. Even if it does come back on the agenda 20 years' hence, it will take more than 10 years to build due to our byzantine planning process. This means that Dublin, unique amongst European capital cities, will not have a rail link between its airport and the city centre. It would also mean that, again, the people of Ballymun would be denied the rail link they have been promised since the 1960s. It would also mean that Swords continues to suffer with a sub-standard bus service which breaks down at the first signs of snow.
It doesn't have to be this way and, hopefully, by the end of this year, it won't be as Metro North will have cleared all obstacles and be set for boring in 2012.
I was under the impression both Barclays and HSBC had hit the exits and with AIB being within weeks of almost total nationalisation this leaves only a single bidder; is this not correct? Can you please list the consortia left in the process.
2, Celtic Metro Group and Metro Express.
The DTO platform for change listed 4 seperate metro lines
1. Tallaght via Kimmage
2. Lucan via Bluebell
3. Tara St to Tallaght via Finglas
4. Shanngannagh to the Airport
3 of these lines have been scrapped and the fourth can be taken in three sections
1. Shanngannagh to Cherrywood - defered due to a suspect cost benefit basis
2. Cherrywood to Stephens Green - built as Luas and with by far the highest population density on the route
3. Stephens Green to Airport - Clearly Luas loadings in terms of population density.
Lucan via Bluebell was actually going to be Luas, not Metro actually, and the RPA has fleshed this out with the Luas Line F proposal. The certainly do call for a Metro line from Shangannah to the Airport and Swords, but the map clearly indicates that what they were proposing was a lot heavier than a Luas line. If they were proposing a Luas line then it would be indicated on the map as other Luas lines are charted there too. This illustrates that the DTO abandoned any Luas line to the airport proposal and upgraded this to a Metro. Therefore these transport exports disagree with you and your fantasy Luas line.
There is no question that delivering Luas will upset motorists and require rerouting of bus routes in the city centre; I would however ask why would someone take the 16 bus all the way from Rathfarnham to Dublin Airport when they could get off in Camden Street and interchange to Luas at Harcourt?
If people had a cross city Luas it would change journey behaviour dramatically.
The only roadspace I see on the entire route as being highly problematic is Phibsboro; the area around Cross Guns Bridge is already a significant pinch point; that area would require a tunnel from the disused canal bank to St Mobhi Road where a football pich exists for a tunnel site; this would require a tunnel of just over 1kms in length.
You also need to consider Ballymun. The local residents have expressed a clear preference for an underground rail line through their area. You would also need to go underground at the airport because you couldn't have trams criss-crossing the apron. You also need to consider the need for grade separation around Swords which requires sections of elevated rail and cut-and-cover tunnels. This is all manageable when we're building a railway line with 17,000 maximum capacity, another story when we're doing it for your low capacity fantasy Luas line. And don't tell me that the demand doesn't exist there for a Metro line. The way you go on you'd swear it'd just be one man and his dog on the metros going from Stephen's Green to Swords. The fact is that cities with lower populations and lower population densities than Dublin also have underground Metro lines which are well-patronised. Another fact is that DART and Commuter rail services are in huge demand in the same Dublin through which metros will travel. They had to double capacity on the DART service to keep pace with demand as people responded to its high-speed, high capacity nature. Add to this that the 90m metros will have only 2/3rds the capacity of a DART train and there is no doubt that metros will be packed once they start running.
That Martin Cullen and Noel Dempsey slowed up the DART underground project deliberately should have no bearing on the delivery of that project. This is clearly now an either or situation the money is not there for both. Dempsey got his white elephant M3, Cullen his White Elephant M9, Bertie his head in a cupboard. For Swords Luas would be a great result given even the vastly overscaled DTO document didn't grant anything.
Martin Cullen and Noel Dempsey did not slow down the DART Underground project, it's due to CIÉ incompetence that it's taking so long. They originally proposed starting the tunnel at Heuston and boring from both ends. This changed when they added in Inchicore and decided to only bore from that end. They themselves imposed the delay when they changed the plans for DART Underground. Noel Dempsey only found out about the delay through the media. The point remains that DART Underground has only begun the railway order process, Metro North has one, CIÉ has only begun the tendering process, Metro North will have finished that by the Summer. MN is shovel ready, DART Underground is not and therefore should get the priority over the next year. Once DART Underground is finished its preliminary work by 2013, we should proceed with it too.