March from Wood Quay Dublin to the GPO at 11am Saturday 27th

March from Wood Quay Dublin to the GPO at 11am Saturday 27th

Postby onq » Tue Nov 23, 2010 9:28 pm

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Re: March from Wood Quay Dublin to the GPO at 11am Saturday 27th

Postby PVC King » Tue Nov 23, 2010 9:49 pm

I think his theories are nuts but he has two things going for him

1. He is less likely to start a riot than Sinn Fein
2. Noone else is doing it

We need to accept the simple reality; our own politicians who we elected presided over a complete deregulation of all aspects of the system; bankers on performance related bonuses took ever greater risks and made horrendous errors. Bond holders got greater and greater coupons until the banks were paying 11% for their money; with their hands tied by the government the banks lent this money on mortgages at 3.5% to keep the population happy. A party that only stood for populism sold this country down the river.

The simple reality is that once austerity bites GDP will shrink and the situation is like thi

There isone simple equation

Mortgage rates rise to cost of money i,e, 5% plus an administration fee of say 1.25% leading to spirraling mortgage defaults; many of those who lose their homes will emmigrate reducing GDP further

Debt to post bail out in 3 years time will be 200% of GDP and interest payments 10% of GDP; in short Ireland is bust

If the bailout isn't renegotiated Ireland will resemble the album sleave of the Joshua Tree

No irish bank bond issued since 2006 should pay a coupon of greater than 5% and any that do should be reissued at 5% and discounted to their face value as of close of play today; i.e a bond priced at 10% for €100m is reissued at €50m bearing 5% interest. No debt to GDP ratio of greater than 85% of todays GDP figure is acceptable.

If anyone thinks I'm being financially irresponsible; at 200% debt to GDP these loans will never be repaid; half a loaf.....
PVC King
 

Re: March from Wood Quay Dublin to the GPO at 11am Saturday

Postby onq » Sun Nov 28, 2010 2:53 pm

I don't think you're being financially irresponsible, I'm just pissed off facing the reality you describe.

We didn't over borrow even on our income from say 1998 - to choose a year semi-randomly.

We sold two houses to buy one and we did a modest amount of work to the house.

We didn't buy cars on our mortgages or second houses here or abroad.

We lived well within our means and have several tax clearance certs to prove it.

[I couldn't be bothered getting them every year and the accountant only did it on instruction].

Yet despite all this clean living we're caught in this disaster because we have little or no profitable work.

Peraonally I feel any social contract I have lived with this state is in poor repair and largely the fault of their attitude to the banking sector.

Faced with debt as a crippling proporation of GDP, the only way to address thsi sustainably is to GRO GDP.

You cannot grow GDP very well with BANKS THAT ARE NOT LENDING!!!

We need a new bankign system and we need the goods on the old one to find the crininals, boot them out of their jobs and into jail, or doing community service.

No time at all for these weirdos who say no law was broken.

They may not be exposed inm relation to lending practicves, but they certainly conned teh government into supporting them.

They benefited from the government conning the rest of us into believing there would be a recovery in Q3 - which there wasn;t because teh BANKS ARE NOT LENDING - STILL!!!

So we have

- a banking system that cannot lend
- a gang of incompetents or liars or both running the government
- the opposition looking as bad
- criminal fraudsters running our banking and financial systems
- an overwpaid civil service
- a public service that's paid on an unrealistic basis that's divorced from reality.

This all has to be changed.
Then the economy has a chance to grow.
Given the frustrated talen in Ireland the moment the growth can potentially be meteoric if we can but channel it to profitable pursuits.
We have professionals of all kinds to beat the band lining up for the dole queues now - surely we can use them to supply professional services abroad and reflate our economy instead of having to go abroad to work there and prove these services.

ONQ.
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