Metro North

Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Fri Oct 29, 2010 8:10 pm

Is there a condition that bikes are allowed on board? or have they banned wheelchairs for fire safety reasons...
missarchi
Old Master
 
Posts: 1796
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 7:53 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Fri Oct 29, 2010 8:28 pm

The Denouncer wrote:Superb news. Living in Swords for the last 8 years I can only say the transport is RUBBISH, having to drive to Donabate to get a train or sitting on a bus for an hour and a half. Its about time the Northside got something. The Southside has the Luas and QBC, as well as the DART of course. Now I'll have to listen to the ANTI-EVERYTHING brigade who are helping to spiral this country into depression, and the WHINGERS and the BEGRUDGERS who are up their own ARSES. We HAVE to build this and generate jobs and generate growth, and give something to the Northside.


Your location explains why you would want to see this built; the northside argument is total rubbish; one of my best mates lived in Rolestown until he moved the the US a few years ago; when visiting him I would take Dart to Malahide and 10 mins after alighting dart I was in his kitchen; this was evening peak.

To say the Northside has no connections is rubbish; it has Dart, and Commuter Rail and a number of QBC's

I am happy to be termed a WHINGER and a BEGRUDGER; because so was anyone in Ireland who saw that the M3 would be a white elephant, one off housing would be a disater.

This now has planning consent but don't forget so did the M3 and look at what a flop that has proved to be; in all but Ghost Estates it lacks the numbers.

What is required is an election so that the people can make their decisions on how very scarce resources can be divied out to create a recovery; project funding models like this did Argentina in 2002 and Greece in 2010; be afraid be very afraid
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby Alek Smart » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:52 pm

PVC King posted...
This now has planning consent but don't forget so did the M3 and look at what a flop that has proved to be; in all but Ghost Estates it lacks the numbers.


Oh come come your majesty,surely that term "flop" is subjective....I mean the beneificaries of Mr Dempsey`s "TOP SECRET-COMMERCIALLY SENSITIVE" PPP Toll deal appear to be uncommonly pleased with their piece of the "Flop"action ...as does nice Mr Dempsey himself and his Senior Officials...so it`s a win-win situation all round.....is`nt it ???? :cool:
Alek Smart
Member
 
Posts: 285
Joined: Mon Jun 23, 2003 11:34 pm
Location: Tallaght

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:23 pm

Alek

Great to see you back on the forum, as a transport practitioner your insights are always welcome in this forum.

I use the Turnapin section of the M1 as the benchmark for the success or otherwise of road schemes; when you have hit 100,000 movements a day you have hit a viable road; granted there will be sections on intra-urban routes that don't need to hit those figures but for localised schemes those are the type of numbers you need. The M3 serves Navan, Kells, Cavan and a little of South Donegal; all very far from urban.

Assuming the road were tendered as a scheme with planning (the post ABP situation on M3 was understandable but equally immature) where you got the land take but had to build and operate the road with all the toll income going to the infrastructure fund but no government subsidy. There is no way that it would have been built.

Ask your yourself the same of both interconnector and Metro; with interconnector there are spin off benefits of doubling capacity on 5 existing lines. On metro Mitsui as a freebie has left the building; forgetting exotic (toxic) funding structures and breaking it back to pure R i.e. the risk free rate as denoted by Government bonds and the annual interest bill is probably €150m per year once bond rates settle down at roughly 5%; should a more negative scenario persist (unlikely) this would be €200m p.a. and all that assumes the project comes in on budget.

In terms of either €3bn in terms of a wide and varied Luas network or €150m a year for more buses to feed the 5 existing rail lines and 2 Luas lines you could acheive infinately more than this over-specified vanity project.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby neutral » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:36 pm

My big fear is if the Metro North project gets the chop so will the Dart Interconnector,both projects should be getting the go ahead with the present tender priced down over 30 % since their peak a few years ago.But we are dealing with Muppets in Government only last July both projects were ring fenced in a new capital project announcement.

Lets save the Banks at all cost and F*** the tax payer and provide no real decent transport solutions long term in Dublin.
neutral
Member
 
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Dec 08, 2008 1:49 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:49 pm

Seeing Alan Dukes saying that a second toxic bank should be retained made my blood run cold. When one looks at the Tallaght Strategy of the late 1980's and what that meant in terms of logical pragmatic non-partisan politics moving to 2010 when his stance has moved to suggesting that the tax-payer should collect bad banks.

Now is a very good time to work out priorities accross all areas.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby adrian5987 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:01 pm

"hit 100,000 movements a day you have hit a viable road" this is ireland what do you expect!!!!! the m25 around london was clocked at 196000 a day in 2003 (ref-bbc and it was near heathrow). london alone having the population of twice this island. where the hell do you think you are going to get 100,000 from?
"The M3 serves Navan, Kells, Cavan and a little of South Donegal; all very far from urban. "the m/n3 caters for possibly 50000 or more in south & west donegal, 57000fermanagh, 64000cavan, & meath is probably the same as donegal with the n2 taking a chunk. admitadly this isnt really enough for a motorway but the one it replaced was completely unfit for this volume with upgrading out out of the question... so for a rare change they did a proper job with the road at least. the problem is the route takes is too far from navan, kells dunsaughlin etc for it to be worth people's time when moving between these towns. for someone using the whole lengh of it, it can cut a hour of journey times.
but can the m3 be left behind? this thread is not about it, im just hoping pvc will stop trying to reference a motorway going a completely different route to a rail line
adrian5987
Member
 
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:35 pm

The M3 serves Navan, Kells, Cavan and a little of South Donegal; all very far from urban. "the m/n3 caters for possibly 50000 or more in south & west donegal, 57000fermanagh, 64000cavan


But excluding the very rare All Ireland Days these counties qualify when do these people actually go to Dublin? Peter Howick in the Herald wrote a hillarious article on toilet paper in pubs on the then N3 being removed anytime Cavan had a date in Croker!! These areas pre bust had their own very successful economies based on local employers and FDI investments which were in the main self sustaining.

Clearly the most ill conceived Motorway in the country; Meath already had 2 motorways.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby adrian5987 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:40 pm

i did say it WASNT enough for a motorway, no need to quote the population! 2+1 dual carrigeway probably would have done, but it was started in the boom when the money was there to do a really good job. and you are right on the traffic to dublin, at least for donegal where sligo, letterkenny, derry, pretty much cover the north west for everything. dublin only offers the airport, port and college!
back to metro north....
adrian5987
Member
 
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sun Oct 31, 2010 10:11 am

The options for the €3bn are.......
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby The Denouncer » Mon Nov 01, 2010 9:45 am

PVC King wrote:Your location explains why you would want to see this built; the northside argument is total rubbish; one of my best mates lived in Rolestown until he moved the the US a few years ago; when visiting him I would take Dart to Malahide and 10 mins after alighting dart I was in his kitchen; this was evening peak.

To say the Northside has no connections is rubbish; it has Dart, and Commuter Rail and a number of QBC's

I am happy to be termed a WHINGER and a BEGRUDGER; because so was anyone in Ireland who saw that the M3 would be a white elephant, one off housing would be a disater.

This now has planning consent but don't forget so did the M3 and look at what a flop that has proved to be; in all but Ghost Estates it lacks the numbers.

What is required is an election so that the people can make their decisions on how very scarce resources can be divied out to create a recovery; project funding models like this did Argentina in 2002 and Greece in 2010; be afraid be very afraid


My wife works in Drumcondra and CANNOT get a bus home in the evenings to Swords as they are all full. The Northside transport infrastructure is shite everyone can see that, except the people who don't live there. Particularly in Swords with a population of 50,000..all the jobs this will create..holy crap whoever argues against this Metro needs their head examined, preferably by a bloke with a blow torch.
The Denouncer
Member
 
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 12:20 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby shadow » Mon Nov 01, 2010 12:36 pm

The answer to that query is more buses with express buses to swords.

Metro systems require density, they require consistent density, not just at rush hour. The only way to achieve this is population, a very diverse and multimodal population. There is a major hindrance for the expansion of the population in North County Dublin. One is water (most or all comes from Blessington) unless they wish to pipe the Shannon directly to Swords. The second is drainage; because of the topography of North County Dublin it is difficult to get more out of the flat(ish) lands. See map of Dublin environs and it clearly shows why the majority of the density increases are in the foothills of the Dublin Mountains which obviously are on the south side of the Liffey. Follow the money.......
shadow
Member
 
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2001 1:00 am

Re: Metro North

Postby wearnicehats » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:40 pm

shadow wrote:The answer to that query is more buses with express buses to swords.
.......


exactly.
wearnicehats
Senior Member
 
Posts: 822
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:38 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby The Denouncer » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:27 pm

Swords Express currently serves Swords, and uses the Port Tunnel. Great if you just want to go from Swords to the Quays for a fiver. Not so great if you want to go to somewhere in between. No, the Southside has the Luas, now its time for the Northside and the Airport to FINALLY get somethign similar. Create jobs, generate growth..why are people throwing the express bus 'solution' at it..the Metro has the green light people WTF? Just build it. End of.
The Denouncer
Member
 
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 12:20 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby Frank Taylor » Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:06 pm

A redacted copy of the business case for Metro North produced this summer by the RPA is here:
http://nationaltransport.ie/Metro_North_Redacted_BC.pdf
Frank Taylor
Senior Member
 
Posts: 530
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:38 pm
Location: Dublin, Ireland

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Mon Nov 01, 2010 9:50 pm

Frank I've read through sections of the report and according to its proponents it delivers an IRR of 9.1% p.a; please explain why with such an impressive IRR it needs any public investment at all?

It also confirms that the base case relies upon Metro West in its base case calculations despite the fact that Metro West is off the agenda. I don't buy the study in any shape of form.

Apply the same set of criteria for the Dublin region and spread the limited growth the next decade will display into all development corridors as opposed to assuming it will magically cram into the MN catchment and the sheer lunacy of the project becomes very clear.

Don't listen to those who would in its absence be seeking new roles or people like Denouncer who think the population of Swords is 50,000 and that the best way to develop a bus service is to spend the few funds available on a project that will cost €150m p.a. into the foreseable future without reducing the debt pile of €3bn it has created.

€750m to deliver the now reduced route as Luas makes perfect sense; in 10 years if it is crammed then build underground Luas to meet IC from DCU. in the interim reserve a land take between the M1 Airport junction and the Northern line to build an express busway to connect with Dart; that could be delivered in less than 2 years, planning, construction the lot.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:16 am

I don't think the catchment debate means anything...
We many stations here with four platforms for large 6 car trains 10km near the inner city they don't run at capacity because if they did you would not be able to get a train anywhere inbound in the morning...

The reason for metro north is to make deliberately planned sprawl due to lack of affordable land planning in the greedy inner city and magic international economic systems we function in more appealing...
If you think Dublin can have world class transport with just luas's and buses your kidding yourselves...

I'm still looking forward to 50% company tax and 1 euro metro tickets...
The economists would say we need higher company tax to pay for all the unemployed disenfranchised people we have left blowing in the wind...
And cheaper metro tickets to help us compete with Rome/Madrid/Moscow where you pay less to go further and get a better view...
missarchi
Old Master
 
Posts: 1796
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 7:53 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby Frank Taylor » Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:35 am

PVC King wrote:Frank I've read through sections of the report and according to its proponents it delivers an IRR of 9.1% p.a; please explain why with such an impressive IRR it needs any public investment at all?
Benefits in public transport projects are always positive externalities - not recoupable by a private investor.

It also confirms that the base case relies upon Metro West in its base case calculations despite the fact that Metro West is off the agenda. I don't buy the study in any shape of form.
I'm not sure how you picked that up. Metro West is excluded from the Base Case 'Do minimum' and 'Do something' scenarios. (see Table 4.2 on pg. 53). Metro West doesn't seem to make sense and I doubt it will be built.
Frank Taylor
Senior Member
 
Posts: 530
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:38 pm
Location: Dublin, Ireland

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:24 pm

Benefits in public transport projects are always positive externalities - not recoupable by a private investor


You can't bank externalities or pay loans with them. I'm still waiting to see the 150% return to the exchequer laid out; redacted development levies; hmmmm: confidence inspiring?


I'm not sure how you picked that up. Metro West is excluded from the Base Case 'Do minimum' and 'Do something' scenarios. (see Table 4.2 on pg. 53). Metro West doesn't seem to make sense and I doubt it will be built.


The original projections INCLUDING Metro West were 35m pax base case; the revised base case is 36.5m pax. Even their own figures don't stack up.

Whilst CDS spreads are mounting; it is a fair statement to say that the rest of Europe is looking at Ireland, scratching their heads and asking how can such an incompetant government still be peddling Metro type projects that there is no money to pay for and still be in power. I strongly hope that when gombeen back benchers resign the whip over their hospital being closed that the opposition act in the national interest and ensure there is an election.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:44 pm

Elections don't change things...
They allow people to loose there jobs the market to bottom out and the smart/bailed out "ïnvestors" to do there thing...
missarchi
Old Master
 
Posts: 1796
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 7:53 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:57 pm

But when the markets lose all faith in a government bond rates balloon; sounds familier....

The compression in UK 10 year yields since 06 May has been impressive.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:58 pm

PVC King still advocates his Luas line idea yet it is fundamentally flawed because there is no roadspace for it. The Luas Green Line could only be built because the Harcourt St. line hadn't been touched and the Luas Red Line was only possible because CIÉ had set aside land around Tallaght for an abandoned rail project. Similarly, the Luas D line to Broombridge is only possible because it's using the trackbed of the Broadstone rail line. No such space exists on the Northside for a Luas line to the airport. Therefore we have to go underground and therefore we opt for Metro North.

Given that it is the RPA who is responsible for both Luas and Metro, don't you think they would've come up with a Luas line plan if it was worthwhile? CIÉ proposed a spur to the line at Malahide to the airport as an alternative to Metro North as they are in the business of expanding Iarnród Éireann and DART. The RPA are in the business of expanding Luas and yet they aren't proposing a Luas line to the airport. That ought to tell you something PVC. When even the agency whose raison d'etre is to develop Luas services isn't proposing one to the airport you know it isn't an option.

You're also mistaken when you say it's "over-specified". On the contrary, Metro North is quite spartan - the RPA have straightened out the route, standardised and simplified station design and adopted cheaper construction techniques from the Madrid Metro in order to make this project even more cost-effective. An over-specced Metro would be one proposing chandeliers for stations and marble tiling for the tunnels.

However, I welcome the fact that even you have dropped the ridiculous €5 billion figure as the total cost of the whole project. This nonsensical figure was made up with no attendant justification by Frank McDonald and its great to see people are now realising that MN will cost quite a bit less than that. The fall in the cost of Metro boosts the cost-benefit ratios even further and makes the project ever more compelling.
Cathal Dunne
Member
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:33 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Wed Nov 03, 2010 11:30 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PVC King still advocates his Luas line idea yet it is fundamentally flawed because there is no roadspace for it. The Luas Green Line could only be built because the Harcourt St. line hadn't been touched and the Luas Red Line was only possible because CIÉ had set aside land around Tallaght for an abandoned rail project. Similarly, the Luas D line to Broombridge is only possible because it's using the trackbed of the Broadstone rail line. No such space exists on the Northside for a Luas line to the airport. Therefore we have to go underground and therefore we opt for Metro North.


The Red Line operates perfectly well between St James Hospital and the Point Depot; it even does so crossing many far busier roads than the linked Luas would need to once DCC did their bit on working withv Dublin Bus to give back OCS and College Green. You will note if you bothyer to read back through the thread that the problem of Phibsboro and a tunnel being required at that location is acknowledged. Critically the length of tunnel to resolve that issue would be hundreds of yards and not kilometers with complex underground stations.
Given that it is the RPA who is responsible for both Luas and Metro, don't you think they would've come up with a Luas line plan if it was worthwhile? CIÉ proposed a spur to the line at Malahide to the airport as an alternative to Metro North as they are in the business of expanding Iarnród Éireann and DART. The RPA are in the business of expanding Luas and yet they aren't proposing a Luas line to the airport. That ought to tell you something PVC. When even the agency whose raison d'etre is to develop Luas services isn't proposing one to the airport you know it isn't an option.


No the RPA are not competent; look at their delivery of phase 1 Luas; and their proposal to move a railway order for Metro West in the full knowledge it will not be built for at least 15 years. In the boom such mistakes were affordable; the party is over.....


You're also mistaken when you say it's "over-specified". On the contrary, Metro North is quite spartan - the RPA have straightened out the route, standardised and simplified station design and adopted cheaper construction techniques from the Madrid Metro in order to make this project even more cost-effective. An over-specced Metro would be one proposing chandeliers for stations and marble tiling for the tunnels.


When assessed on a population catchment basis it is vastly over-specified; digging kilometers of tunnels and expensive underground stations to serve a largest town of sub 30,000 is ludicrous when compared to Tallaght with a population of close to 100,000 very well served by Luas.

However, I welcome the fact that even you have dropped the ridiculous €5 billion figure as the total cost of the whole project. This nonsensical figure was made up with no attendant justification by Frank McDonald and its great to see people are now realising that MN will cost quite a bit less than that. The fall in the cost of Metro boosts the cost-benefit ratios even further and makes the project ever more compelling.


We don't know what it will cost; but we do know the demand analysis is complete fiction; even at €3bn it adds at todays rates over €220m a year in debt servicing costs at the Risk Free Rate. On marketwatch this evwening it was said that Ireland deserves a credit rating equivelent to Greece.

There will be an election very very soon; the next government will have their Pappendreou moment and Metro North will be binned just a swiftly as the current government who have an unprecendented voter intention ratio of less than a quarter of the electorate; there is clearly a gradual awakening to the sheer chaos that big ticket thinking has brought upon the nation. As a people the Irish were once so good at living within their means and didn't get shafted by exotic financing packages. Back to basics get the deficit down, get people back to work and leverage trading opportunites with the emerging economies.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:58 am

Cathal Dunne wrote:You're also mistaken when you say it's "over-specified". On the contrary, Metro North is quite spartan - the RPA have straightened out the route, standardised and simplified station design and adopted cheaper construction techniques from the Madrid Metro in order to make this project even more cost-effective. An over-specced Metro would be one proposing chandeliers for stations and marble tiling for the tunnels.


Thats rubbish metro north went for the 1/2nd cheapest construction method for st stephens green. They did not use that method for the new sol station.

Madrid metro in some cases went for single bore which helps with other methods better in some cases. Ireland says "it's not the safest option" but there part of the EU go figure...

Madrid metro has marble floors at the airport you should see them...
They match the airport... or do they?
In addition Roger ramjet said it was an after thought... From the winner of a prize and was rushed.

Will Ireland win the prize in transport?

I think you find our financial regulation system might be overspeced too... But that didn't save it from...

All for 2.20 eu? Ireland will use cheaper trains... cheaper stations, cheaper finishes and yet a ticket to the airport will cost 2-5 times as much?

That is progress...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1104/1224282635055.html
missarchi
Old Master
 
Posts: 1796
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 7:53 pm

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sat Nov 13, 2010 10:11 pm

Department denies reports on bailout talks
Updated: 21:04, Saturday, 13 November 2010

The Department of Finance has denied foreign media reports that Ireland is involved in talks on an application for emergency funding from the European Union.

Article Video (1) 1 of 2 Department of Finance - Insists no talks on emergency funding 2 of 2 Dominique Strauss-Kahn - Ireland has not asked for IMF aid Play Stop Six One News: IMF chief - Ireland can manage own economy

The Department of Finance has again insisted that Ireland is not involved in talks on an application for emergency funding from the European Union.

A spokesman said Ireland is fully funded until the middle of next year.


The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss Kahn, has said Ireland can manage its economy on its own.

Speaking on the sidelines of an Asia Pacific summit in Japan, Mr Strauss Kahn said Ireland's difficulties had been principally caused by one bank and were very different from those of Greece whose economy faced deep-seated problems.

His comments came after Taoiseach Brian Cowen and the European Commission denied a report that preparations were under way to apply for emergency funding from the EU.

Earlier, a Government spokesperson reiterated today that no EU bailout talks are taking place, despite reports on the BBC that preliminary talks about such a bailout are ongoing.

RTÉ News reported last night that some talks have taken place about how a bailout might happen in a theoretical worst case scenario.



According to the FT tomorrow will be the key day; I hope the Dept of Finance are the ones telling the truth but given the record on Metro North my trust is with the pink pages. There is no shame in admitting the opinion polls are right and that a terrible mistake was made in 1997 and again in 2002 and again in 2007. Roll on the Namaberg trials
PVC King
 

PreviousNext

Return to Irish Planning Matters