ppjjobrien wrote:* growth in population WILL occur (the para on pop forecasts - to help you I even subtracted the component of pop growth which is connected to the economy (migration). I even tried indicate where the growth will come from (aging population, people deferring having children, more single person households - all of these mean more households and are independent of the economy - as a by-the-by there is by all accounts another baby boom underway .
Any such baby boom will not have transport requirements for 20 plus years; the net in migration has turned to net out migration and with the IDA creating only 20,000 jobs per annum it would take 40 years for unemployment to disappear; net out migration is far more likely.
ppjjobrien wrote:* the additional households will need to be housed unless prices are to rise unsustainably and to create another property crash in 30 yrs time! The purpose of the graph was to demonstrate that the likely levels are nothing like those of the boom years, but that there would be additional housing, but more likely at a level seen at the start of the boom before housing went crazy. You do have a habit of reacting quite hysterically when the point being made is actually far closer to the one you were making than you realise..
I just see red when anyone talks about Swords having a population of 100,000; if Burke and his cronies hadn't filled the first mile surrounding the town centre with Urban Sprawl and then maybe if development was made very difficult in the rest of the borough then a significant uplift would be possible. Sadly the sprawl exists and development patterns will be far more dispersed firstly in National terms and secondly within the greater Dublin region. Why interconnector is so superior is that it allows for development to be spread accross four existing rail corridors and the two Luas extensions which both contain a lot of zoned and serviced development land; Developing those areas first will cut the likely Luas operational losses on these two extensions; extensions which were clearly built prematurely in the cases of City West and Cherrywood.
ppjjobrien wrote:I then made the point that I thought that planning policy should seek to concentrate future growth along a small number of corridors where infrastructure (not just transport) is being provided. MN corridor has more capacity than most and that is a positive - notwithstanding the financial case for the project - and I have to say the difficulty about someone such as yourself making such specific arguments about the viability of the MN scheme is that none of us have seen the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and therefore none of us can say for sure - that suggests a slightly more conciliatory tone to any debate rather than an absolutist one. .
I have no desire to be absolutest but I am always concerned when CBA's are withheld and when a scenario is run that is entirely dependent on very ambitous development targets; when GDP was growing at 6-10% a year and when housing completions were header ever higher I had was not talking about Metro. But the economic picture has utterly changed: look at the three articles below.
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned Wednesday that the banking crisis has turned into a potential sovereign debt crisis and governments must tackle excessive fiscal deficits without delay.
In a press conference, King said he had seen the details of fiscal plans by the new U.K. Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, and that they provided a "very strong and powerful agreement to reduce [the U.K.] deficit."
They include "a very clear and binding commitment to accelerate the reduction of the deficit in the lifetime of the parliament," King said, adding: "I think it will diminish some of the downside risks because of the action that will be taken to deal with the deficit."
Commenting on the lessons of the Greek debt crisis, King said it didn't make sense to run the risk of an adverse market reaction, and lawmakers need to "get ahead of that."
Spain to slash wages to cut deficit
Wednesday, 12 May 2010 11:29
Spain has said it will cut state employees' wages and slash investment spending in a bid to reassure markets that it can get its budget deficit under control and halt the spread of the European debt crisis.
'We need to make a singular, exceptional and extraordinary effort to cut our public deficit and we must do so now that the economy is beginning to recover,' Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said.
Meanwhile, new figures show that the Spanish economy eased out of recession in the first quarter of 2010 as it recorded growth of just 0.1%.
In the toughest deficit cutting moves by far by the Socialist government, Zapatero said the government planned to save â‚¬15 billion in 2010 and 2011 with a series of cuts including a reduction of more than â‚¬6 billion in public investment.
Civil service salaries will be cut by 5% in 2010 and frozen in 2011, sparking immediate anger from unions, who have already put the brakes on a government move to raise the retirement age to 67 from 65.
The measures were announced after European Union and International Monetary Fund officials agreed at the weekend on a â‚¬750 billion emergency fund for weak euro zone countries that have been hit by a debt crisis.
Economists said that after the weekend EU meeting it became very clear Spain and Portugal, and particularly Spain, would have to go the extra mile in cutting the deficit. They said today's actions were based on 'the Irish model'.
The pressures on Zapatero to act rose during the week as US President Barack Obama called him on yesterday and urged him to be 'resolute' in efforts to implement economic reforms.
The measures will now reduce the budget deficit to 9.3% of gross domestic product this year, from 11.2% in 2009. It will fall to 6% in 2011 and be reduced to 3% of GDP by 2013, the government said.
Spain sees first quarter growth of 0.1%
Spain eased out of recession with 0.1% growth in the first quarter compared to the preceeding quarter, the government statistics' office said in a preliminary report today.
The figures from the National Statistics Office confirmed a provisional report from the Bank of Spain released last week.
Spain, Europe's fifth largest economy, entered its recession in the second quarter of 2008 as the global financial meltdown compounded a crisis in the Spanish property market, which had been a major driver for growth in the preceding years.
The economy continued to contract until the fourth quarter of 2009 when it shrank 0.1%. Year on year, the economy shrank 1.3% from the first quarter of 2009, it added.
Spain is the last major world economy to emerge from recession.
The parrelels with Spain are striking a property bust leading to a deep recession. Before people think we can go off balance sheet or wave two fingers to the Commission
EU plans better budget co-ordination
Wednesday, 12 May 2010 11:52
The European Commission has proposed that euro zone countries submit their national budgets to the EU for what it calls 'peer review' before they go to national parliaments.
The Commission also said it would call on national leaders to agree a permanent crisis resolution mechanism. The proposals come days after EU leaders backed a â‚¬750 billion rescue fund for euro zone countries.
The Commission said the recent crises surrounding euro zone debt had exposed the vulnerability of euro zone countries and underlined their interdependence. It said the time had come to draw 'far-reaching lessons' about the way economic policies were dealt with.
ppjjobrien wrote:I envy your salary - a taxi from Paddington to the City would set you back about Â£20. Also, I've been on the Piccadilly line myself many times in general and specifically to the airport. There are a very significant number of passengers using the Underground, with the heathrow express/taxi combo most used by business travellers on expenses. Buses in the transport world are always considered less likely to achieve modal change (from private to public) that fixed rail connections. Dublin CC could be 15 mins from the airport - think what a competitive advantage that would be for Dublin CC as a city to do business and visit. The bus is entirely reliant on traffic, albeit that the Dublin Port tunnel has improved consistency..
I'll let you in on a little secret; the heathrow connect service costs only Â£7.90 and takes 33 mins versus the Â£6 the tube costs and takes over an hour; the saving is less than minimum wage. A minicab costs about Â£15 to the city and a black cab about a tenner to the West End. Without getting off point; half an hour which is what the aircoach takes post port tunnel stands up well to any City; few cities have an airport less than 10 miles from their City Centre.
ppjjobrien wrote:Well, hopefully at least one of the projects will get the go ahead! Failing that you could fall back on the other comment above which correctly stressed that there is no need for this to be paid from current spending, but rather the cost could be deferred over a longer period of time - we don't need to repeat the interest on interest argument - I accept it's a more expensive way of doing it in the long run, it is however less outlay on a year-by-year basis..
It still goes on the National debt and will show up in the national accounts as borrowing; I would favour the interconnector being paid for directly from borrowing and then the debt paid down over 20-30 years on a standard amortisation model.
ppjjobrien wrote:There are private operators in Sweden and Germany to name but two. I have no ideological beef with IE - they're just rubbish at running a train system. I'm not saying you could ever directly privatise them - I was reacting to your arguments against PPP/Private Operators. .
I've not come across them as my time in Frankfurt displayed only Stadwerke Frankfurt on the ticketing; if it works it works but my view is clearly contaminated by the UK experience.
ppjjobrien wrote:This was my point. There's no reason for the service not to continue onto Limerick Junction and make the connection. They've just not thought about it as a system - room for improvement over time isn't the issue - they've designed it to be useless to the consumer - either to prove their point that they don't believe in regional services, or because they couldn't run a piss up in a brewery, let alone a well connected, integrated public transport offering..
Neither do I; without the GAA summer loadings to Croke Park; Irish Rail would have lines to Cork, Limerick, Galway, Waterford and Belfast at best. There is no way the demand exists to connect other cities unless the government gave the funding to build a line that was at least as quick as driving; the 2 hours plus from Limerick to Galway was clearly known to Dept of Transport before the project was sanctioned. A symbolic gesture and a waste of taxpayers cash.
ppjjobrien wrote:Like I said the 500k figure excludes all migration (a very negative assumption over a 20yr period) and is based purely on demographic trends as explained above. We'll just have to disagree on the relative merits of western sprawl versus intensification and some greenfield to the North - my central point is that whichever new housing is provided in the future, it should be far more concentrated and much more closely tied into existing and/or planned infrastructure, which improves the sustainability of the communities and also the viability of the schemes, although you'll always have the chicken and the egg issue.
Sadly it is usually the young that leave because they can't get graduate jobs; they then meet people from the host country, settle down and stay put. Unless the employment situation turns around dramatically the population will in my view stay static for decades to come; placing a higher tax burden on the population by building vanity projects will deter employment growth and make it more likely that more people have to leave; exacerbating the situation still further.