I deliberately use the term 'move forward' in a sarcastic sense. I agree with what Fintan O'Toole wrote in his Irish Times opinion piece.
Brian O' Hanlon
I stand to gain a lot more myself, working in the property area, if NAMA goes ahead. That is, if NAMA is a success and doesnâ€™t break the country completely. Brian Lucey commented yesterday, that he is discussing NAMA in his sleep. Lucey said though, the definition of a â€˜lecturerâ€™ is somebody who talks in someone elseâ€™s sleep. Lucey might indeed, be talking in other peoplesâ€™ sleep at the moment.
But certainly, from my own perspective, I didnâ€™t sleep too well this summer for some reason. Then it finally dawned on me. It does not sit well with me as a person, to think that I could support the NAMA plan. Since I have decided not to support it at all, in my comments and my own mind, I have slept a lot better. That doesnâ€™t mean, if NAMA goes through, I will be disappointed. On the contrary, it could be good for me. However, disagree-ing with it, gives me more peace.
In order to disagree with NAMA, in my conscious brain, the really difficult work, was to find a sufficient number of points against NAMA, to tip that see-saw inside of my brain to either one or other side. I will proceed to describe the three things below. Brian Lucey in his latest Irish Times article, has hit on some additional factors, that I could agree with. They are things about bonds and what not, that economists do find interesting.
But the great thing for me, when I read Luceyâ€™s latest article, was I realized, I donâ€™t need his articles so much as I used to, to make up my mind. That, with the three basic â€˜weightsâ€™ I have now placed on one end of my see-saw, I am happy that by brain is no longer under the same stress it used to be in, all summer. I donâ€™t need to add additional weight to the see-saw to make a decision. Here they are.
(1) The FF government has commissioned numerous expert reports, none of which tie up together to form a cohesive strategy. NAMA in itself, is a wonderfully clever idea. Not to knock that idea, but it hasnâ€™t been tied up with the rest of the consultant advisory projects. In other words, there is no clear overall architect. Which spells disaster to me.
(2) The banks are making their situation appear a lot worse than it is. They havenâ€™t put their cards on the table. The AIB operations in Poland for instance, could be sold up to improve their position. They have not even gestured a willingness to look at that option as a last resort.
It is the same with the Zoe developments court case, the company I used to work for. They are careful to display only the portions of the company they want people to see, in the courts. I.e. In an attempt to say â€™save usâ€™, we deserve corporate wellfare.
(3) The â‚¬30 billion hit that ex. Ulsterbank economist Pat McArdle predicted the developers will have to take, in his article in the Irish Times newspaper. Pat called it, having some skin in the game.
I donâ€™t believe the Irish developers ever had their own skin in the game to begin with. They were a miserable, impoverished bunch of guys, who never knew it was to have any real wealth. We wonâ€™t hold that against them, you are what you are. But NAMA hinges on the fact, that they were â€˜real developersâ€™ instead of developers of convenience the Irish banks needed in order to enlarge their loan books.
The three items above, are all that I really needed to make up my mind for good and glory about NAMA. I have read and listened to Gurdgiev, Lucey, Whelan, Burton, Bruton, Lee, Ryan, Lenehan and all the other excellent commentators to date. The list of people I know now, is far too long to list here. I know more Irish economists, journalists and politicians than I ever knew in my life, simply from following it all.
I donâ€™t think I have purchased this many newspapers or watched the main evening news and studied as many blogs as I have, ever, as I have donevover the last 3 months. For what it is worth Greg, I have become a Fine Gael supporter. Even though, I never had a political opinion in my life. I used to go into ballot boxes and pick out a name basically. It was through listening to Fine Gael in particular over the past 3 months, that I really began to figure out how I felt about NAMA. For real. No more voices in my dreams thankfully.