PVC King wrote:KB as you may have observed I've always taken a sunnier view than that but if you are right it will be a missed opportunity that will not present itself again on this scale. A strong NAMA will require a multi-disciplinary approach that represents all areas of the built environment and investment community. Clearly the buyers and lessee's will have all of the power for the foreseable future; to think that Zoe type apartments or Georges Dock type commercial architecture will hack it going forward would be a huge miscalculation.
If the product is better then the land price will form a much smaller percentage of the price enabling NAMA to acheive better returns if prices rise. The future will be much smaller projects which will only acheive profitability if they are of a sufficient quality; if the main property player is run by exclusively by bond fund managers and bankers then NAMA will come to a very bad end.
Yes, PVC, you views are sunnier, but then my pension fund is almost gone and my income is a fraction of what it was, thus it is hard to remain uncynical, yet alone cheerful!
I do not want to go over old ground again, but Iâ€™ve long ago spoken about the rise in insolvencies and the site cost/land price being too high an input into the overall equation. Nama is here to stay, so it has to be made work and I agree that it needs people with a commercial outlook. Donâ€™t hold your breath. We will see more political latchico appointees and gobshite civil servants way out beyond their depth.
What really kills me is the total lack of any
- Awareness in the population that it was partly to blame
- Credible Opposition
- Professional financial journalists
- Knowledgeable Radio/TV presenters
- Economists who are more interested in problem resolution that making a name for themselves.
- Expeditious corporate enforcement.
The FG notion of a â€œGood Bankâ€ is nonsense, Bruton is a nice guy, but is not capable of being a finance minister. George bloody Lee has never achieved anything except to pontificate on the TV- he even had to repeat his Leaving to get into college. Nobody can / will lend until the financial health of industries is known. That is a Black Hole at the moment because no lender can calculate the worth of the"receivables" on a balance sheet. The dominos will start to fall when NAMA gets going and then we will see who has been bathing in the nude. That must happen before there can be more liquidity in the market.
Some time ago I spoke here about the need for the construction industry to look overseas â€“ Parlon has been waffling on about this recently, talking about the need for â€œexport creditâ€. So far, nobody has had the knowledge, cop, or basic wit to query him on what he means by this. What he really wants is financial guarantees from the State in the form of performance bonds. Given the "health" of our great names in construction, and their probable ability to complete a job, who would like to guarantee the performance of any one of them on an overseas project???
The only advantage this downturn has given me is more time out on the bog with the dog and gun. More sense out there. (Apart from the erudition here, of course:))