PVC King wrote:Good to see you as always you deviate from the topic under discussion and descend into personal attacks as always;
I'd ask you to point out where in that last post I descended into personal attacks. If not I expect you to retract this. I was careful to attack your record on economic and financial predictions and not attack you as a person.
In fact, I went out of my way to actually apologise for getting angry in my last exchange with you despite the fact that you'd completely dismissed my point as being ignorant (that a 30% discount on peak values was la-la land valuations) even though I've been vindicated by the EU's input into the NAMA process.
this coming from the person who recommended spread betting indexes as a valid investment method versus a sure fire way of handing all your cash to glorified casinos.
This sentence doesn't even parse grammatically but the gist seems to be that you don't understand the futures market or the simple relationship between the value of a future and that of the underlying or that a "financial spread betting" service is nothing but a futures brokerage (except that by calling it "betting" your gains are tax free thanks to McCreevy).
As someone who apparently delves into the market to buy bank stocks, you might actually learn something here; you can get the EXACT same exposure to gains or losses (except it is tax free and the fees are less) by buying a future via a spreadbetting company.
I stand by my remarks on NcNamara in comparison to his peers he has always behaved in a dignified manner; examples of his investments such as the Dept of Transport building
Now you really are fantasizing. Where did I ever question McNamara's dignity or integrity? I simply questioned YOUR claim last year that all these guy were completely sound financially. They are now all bust or close to it. You can wriggle and twist and try to veer off the subject all you like but that is what you claimed and I simply pointed this out as an example of your previous history of financial analysis and predictions.
To get back to the point I would ask you
1. With no future supply how will rents fall further?
2. With limited construction employment how can the sector fall further?
3. With cleansed loan books and robust capital reserves why are Irish banks more likely to fail or decline in value than their peers?
4. Why would a professional services firm not trade up if they can secure a good letting deal 0n better terms than a 2005 or 2006 rent review level?
5. Compare Dublin rents across the IPD European index; how would you assess compititiveness?
Briefly: 1 - limited demand; 2 - dunno much about the sector but looks like it cannot go any lower; 3 - we've only seen the fallout from the collapse in commercial property - the next hit will be unemployed individuals and their mortgages; Irish banks have grown inefficient and never cultivated the skills required to generate returns on capital except by making easy money during a property/credit boom which no longer exists and will not for a generation; Irish banks are not known for being innovative so I cannot see where future profit streams will come from - payments processing (about the only thing they can be trusted with) makes very modest profits; 4 - companies will trade up all right but will pay less rent, the belt tightening isn't over - what's good for tenants is bad for landlords and vice-verse so you're actually arguing that the commercial property sector has more pain to experience; 5 - Ireland/Dublin will struggle to compete because the government splurge and mismanagement of the banking crisis will leave it with an enormous debt to service which will require huge tax increases; in the absence of free money it's going to cost 4.5B a year to service the current level government debt - with rising unemployment, the income tax take is down around the 10/11B a year mark; the national debt (ignoring the Enron-type accounting which attempts to hide it) is set to double or triple - do the math.
Anyway I'm not going to engage in some pedantic shit with you. My contribution to this thread was a request that you admit that you've been spectacularly wrong with your "predictions" over the last two years:
- the Irish banks had been stabalised last year (strange sort of stability that requires 20/30 billion more government money to stop them going bust)
- the worst was over for the Irish economy in general this time last year (enough said)
- that big name property developers like Quinlan and McNamara were 100% sound financially (Quinlan has done a legger out of the country and McNamara is battling backrupcy in the courts)
- that the DDDA was sound financially (I think I trust it's new CEO more than you when it comes to pronouncements on the soundness of the DDDA.)
And that's just the stuff of yours I remember. And by highlighting these woeful examples, I'm accused of "deviating into personal attacks". Get a f*cking grip, man up and admit you've been spectacularly wrong with your snake oil financial predictions.