Interconnector aka DART underground

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Mon May 10, 2010 12:54 pm

Net gain means proceeds less costs. Now are you prepared to defend the points that you made?
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby shytalk » Mon May 10, 2010 1:07 pm

It's estimated that the construction phase of MN will contribute 200m + Euros p.a. in tax and VAT receipts to the exchequer and along with social security savings as a good proportion of the 9,000 workforce will be taken from the unemployed.

It will actually cost money to cancel MN.
shytalk
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Mon May 10, 2010 1:11 pm

As the scheme doesn't have planning and all the money needs to be borrowed; it is not quite clear how it would cost money to bin the elephant?

Its like saying it would cost money to not to buy a baseball cap in America on a tax rebate scheme; you may get a little tax back; you may even defer payment if you pay on a credit card; but you will pay for it.

You see pvcking, your whole contrived argument is demolished by just a few salient but key issues that you continually either try to obscure or as has benn pointed out a few times you blatantly invent data to defy.


Report 1 for abusive posting; your already on thin ice for your antics under the previous user id of marmajam

Firstly MN is not primarily a link to the airport. It is firstly a key spine in a comprehensive public transport netwiork that is essential for the success of the Dublin city region into the future. You might live in a declining former colonial power but the world moves on fast and Dublin has to compete globally with very dynamic global regions. Poor public transport is consistently marked at the top of the list for drawbacks to inward investment for Dublin by multi nationals.


All the other lines will exist in the absence of Metro North; it is therefore a stand alone line that for the vast majority of its route serves a very low density catchment beyond Drumcoundra and for all of its route beyond Ballymun; excluding Dublin Airport and Swords which can be served by faster Dart options. The interconnector will provide a viable transport system. Name one major muti-national employer on the route; IBM, Intel, Citibank, HSBC, they are all a lot closer to interconnector locations.
There's no getting away from this.

Secondly, MN will last for 150 yrs at least. You build your infrastructure first then greater development is facilitated.


No scheme is planned on a timeframe of more than 20-30 years; ; except maybe the railway junction I visited in the Bolivian altiplano added in 1870 and shut in 1996. The level of housing and commercial space to be that will require require locations adjacent to a transport corridor can be adequately serviced by the 4 interconnector assisted lines; not to mention that development is unlikely to be as regionally unbalanced as it was over the past decade. i.e. more development for Cork, Galway, Limerick etc is likely to ensure that Dublin doesn't suffer from over-development again for a very long time.

Not the other way round as you with your estate agent mind seems to imagine.
MN opens up the whole NW sector of Dublin, already enhanced by a major airport with a huge future.
Thirdly is it not light rail as you keep trying to assert. It would be defined as light metro.
And the real point is that it will have 4 times the capacity of the Luas, fully grade separated.


North West Dublin is Blanchardstown it is served by Commuter rail which will be upgraded to Dart; you are talking about MN serving a very narrow corridor comprising of 3 bed semis built between 1920 and 1970. The passenger numbers or multinationals are elsewhere. There is not one bus route between Ballymun and the Airport which indicates that there is no demand to connect these two centres.

And finally the tenders for MN are way below 2 billion and the interest repayments will be in the region of 75m a year.
The EIB funding is for 8.33% of a €6bn package; even taking your €2bn figure which you have never backed up €1,833m would need to borrowed on the open market where yields exceed 5.50% for gilts; that is €100.83m plus €8.3m to the EIB or €109.13m p.a. there would be a risk premium attached to all further deficit sums.

But I don't believe this can be built for €2bn without some form of inflated service contract being manditory. Compare this project to the interconnector and it offers little, very little. The passenger predictions for the Airport are back to about 28m for 2020 for starters on the demand side; the operational losses on this system would crippling; unless there is seperate ticketing and then commuters have to pay both MN and IE to make journeys involving 2 modes on the system .

Leaving aside 9,000 employed over 6 years, VAT and tax receipts etc etc
There will be a net gain of approx 200m p.a. for the exchequer during construction.
What's the issue about cash shortage?


So it costs €2bn but the exchequer will receive €2.2bn; are you serious? Then the ongoing operational contract must be crippling; isn't this how Greece became bankraupt?

MADRID Amey PLC and Bechtel Group Inc. have agreed to sell Tube Lines Ltd. for GBP310.2 million, Amey parent Grupo Ferrovial SA (FER.MC) said late Friday.

In a Spanish regulatory filing, Ferrovial said TLL, which is tasked with the maintenance of three London Underground lines, will be purchased by the U.K. state-owned Transport for London.

Company website: http://www.ferrovial.es



I ignore your posts because you supply no sources for anything you say and have difficulty with basic arithmetic.


More tough budgets needed - Sutherland
Sunday, 9 May 2010 23:17
Former EU Commissioner Peter Sutherland has said Ireland had successfully differentiated its economic situation from that of Greece, having shown a real intent to deal with the deficit.

Speaking on RTE's This Week programme to be broadcast tonight, Mr Sutherland said the public finances will have to be continually reviewed over the next three years.

He said the Government will need to introduce even more difficult budget measures over the next three years in light of the Greek debt crisis.

However, Minister for Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs Pat Carey said the Government does not plan to bring forward the budget but will continue to implement spending cuts.
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby Pete » Mon May 10, 2010 1:46 pm

PVC King wrote:All of the areas you have listed are predominently greying suburbs with very low population density


Of course, Terenure is a greying low desity suburb when compared with the thriving, cosmopolitan and dynamic urban quarter that is, err, Malahide!

PVC King wrote:Not all passengers will use the tunnel but it will greatly enhance service levels on the three existing routes into Connolly from Greystones, Maynooth and Northern line (branching to Howth). By allowing Darts to run more frequently on the Bray and Maynooth routes it provides capacity purely on the basis of removing about 50% of the traffic currently using the 'loopline' In essence it doubles capacity.


PVC King wrote:All the other lines will exist in the absence of Metro North


All current Dart and commuter services will exist in the absence of the Interconnector. You will still be able to get from Howth to city centre. The current Dart system isn't that over crowded that we need to spend €3 - 4bn trebling its capacity, which is what the interconnector intends. The direct link from the Docklands to Heuston is not going to attract that many new commuters.

At least the metro incorporates new areas into the Dublin rail system and serves a number of popular destinations, St Stephens Green (with enabling work done to allow delivery of interconnector in the future), O'Connell Street (with enabling work done to allow delivery of BXD in the near future), Mater Hospital and National Childrens Hospital (with station alread built as part of Mater redevelopment), DCU (with 20,000 students and staff), regenerated Ballymun with projected population of 40,000 (stop integrated into Theasury Holdings Ballymun Town Centre development) the airport (with capacity for 35m passengers p.a.) and park and ride facilities further north for 2,600 cars.

You propose building a Luas out to Ballymun/Finglas as an alternative. So thats a double decker Interconnector, new rail line from Malahide to airport, with extra tracks to allow for greater frequency and a 7km luas serving what you describe as "a very low density catchment beyond Drumcoundra and for all of its route beyond Ballymun". There is not the population there for this luas but with the airport on the line along with everything else I have mentioned, the metro becomes viable. The metro provides most of the benefits of these three projects and would be cheaper then them combined. Granted Dart capacity will be a lot lower then if interconnector was built but we can live with that for the reasons outlined above.

shytalk wrote:MN will cost nothing to the exchequer until 2016/7. Any payments needed before then will be more than covered by tax and vat revenue, social security savings etc

MN will cost nothing while employing up to 9,000 with other fillup benefits for the economy.


I have to agree with shytalk on this.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Mon May 10, 2010 2:15 pm

Pete wrote: Of course, Terenure is a greying low desity suburb when compared with the thriving, cosmopolitan and dynamic urban quarter that is, err, Malahide!


You can't compare the constructions costs between the Victorian period Dublin and Drogheda railway with the costs of building a modern underground railway. For starters it passed through farmland and wasn't underground; in addition labour costs were lower and as there were no cars in the Victorian Era ; so rail acheived a much higher modal split.

Pete wrote: All current Dart and commuter services will exist in the absence of the Interconnector. You will still be able to get from Howth to city centre. The current Dart system isn't that over crowded that we need to spend €3 - 4bn trebling its capacity, which is what the interconnector intends. The direct link from the Docklands to Heuston is not going to attract that many new commuters.


What the €2bn interconnector does is triple capacity by removing the previously explained loopline capacity constraint; it also makes the routes out of Heuston a lot more attractive as they no longer require a change onto Luas Red Line which without the link up to the Green Line misses most of the office district which is located in Dublin 2. There is a lot of redundant industrial property in D8 and D10 which is ripe for regeneration; no such development land with adequate power and water supplies exists on the route of Metro North. Only legions of nimbies; it is simply not suitable for redevelopment because the plots are too small to make site assembly feasible.


Pete wrote: At least the metro incorporates new areas into the Dublin rail system and serves a number of popular destinations, St Stephens Green (with enabling work done to allow delivery of interconnector in the future), O'Connell Street (with enabling work done to allow delivery of BXD in the near future), Mater Hospital and National Childrens Hospital (with station alread built as part of Mater redevelopment), DCU (with 20,000 students and staff), regenerated Ballymun with projected population of 40,000 (stop integrated into Theasury Holdings Ballymun Town Centre development) the airport (with capacity for 35m passengers p.a.) and park and ride facilities further north for 2,600 cars.


The park n ride listed by the RPA as delivering about 30% of the passenger numbers can be built to service the Northern line as it is barely a mile from same and none of the other destinations would in combination hit anywhere near the passenger loadings on the Luas Green Line. Ballymun Town Centre will prosper with out of town visitors going to Ikea; other than Dundrum Town Centre I am unaware of any major suburban shopping centre that relies heavily on public transport; certainly people are not going to go into Central Dublin and change to Metro North to visit a 50,000 sq m shopping centre when there are millions of square feet in the City Centre; same goes for Swords with phase 2 of the Pavillions and between Ballymun and Pavillions they will cannibalise each other to the point that traffic would be non-existant. Pavillions however is a great play on a weak Euro as being the first major shopping centre for northerners to leverage the strong pound when the currency goes back to equilibrium; Metro North or Spur to Northern line to attract shoppers from Belfast?


Pete wrote: You propose building a Luas out to Ballymun/Finglas as an alternative. So thats a double decker Interconnector, new rail line from Malahide to airport, with extra tracks to allow for greater frequency and a 7km luas serving what you describe as "a very low density catchment beyond Drumcoundra and for all of its route beyond Ballymun". There is not the population there for this luas but with the airport on the line along with everything else I have mentioned, the metro becomes viable. The metro provides most of the benefits of these three projects and would be cheaper then them combined. Granted Dart capacity will be a lot lower then if interconnector was built but we can live with that for the reasons outlined above.


The system is trippled in capacity with single decker trains; this is not Paris the population base is slightly over 1m not 8m and unlike Paris where the area inside the Periphique is predominently made up of 5-6 storey multi-occupied buildings the metro North catchment is predominently 16 to the acre 3 bed semi's.



Pete wrote: MN will cost nothing to the exchequer until 2016/7. Any payments needed before then will be more than covered by tax and vat revenue, social security savings etc

MN will cost nothing while employing up to 9,000 with other fillup benefits for the economy.I have to agree with shytalk on this.


Rolled up interest results in interest being paid on interest; note Marmajam/Shytalk no longer talks about off balance sheet accounting; the proposal for Metro North is debt funded whatever way you look at it and Ireland can no longer raise debt at an attractive cost.


More tough budgets needed - Sutherland
Sunday, 9 May 2010 23:17
Former EU Commissioner Peter Sutherland has said Ireland had successfully differentiated its economic situation from that of Greece, having shown a real intent to deal with the deficit.

Speaking on RTE's This Week programme to be broadcast tonight, Mr Sutherland said the public finances will have to be continually reviewed over the next three years.

He said the Government will need to introduce even more difficult budget measures over the next three years in light of the Greek debt crisis.

However, Minister for Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs Pat Carey said the Government does not plan to bring forward the budget but will continue to implement spending cuts.
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby Pete » Mon May 10, 2010 4:56 pm

PVC King wrote:You can't compare the constructions costs between the Victorian period Dublin and Drogheda railway with the costs of building a modern underground railway. For starters it passed through farmland and wasn't underground; in addition labour costs were lower and as there were no cars in the Victorian Era ; so rail acheived a much higher modal split.


You misunderstand, my point was that, today, you dismiss extending transport routes to Terenure while you champion increasing routes to Malahide and other such areas which already have adequate transport links. Why?

PVC King wrote:What the €2bn interconnector does is triple capacity by removing the previously explained loopline capacity constraint;


I accept that, I dont dispute it and I know it to be true so there is no need to keep mentioning it.

PVC King wrote:it also makes the routes out of Heuston a lot more attractive as they no longer require a change onto Luas Red Line which without the link up to the Green Line misses most of the office district which is located in Dublin 2.


I cant understand this campaign to improve public transport for those who already use it, instead of offering it to new customers. Many people who live in Kildare or North County Dublin use the current Dart line to get to work in the city centre regardless of they change to another intercity/luas line. Just because they can get to work without having to change post interconnector does not mean 3 times as many people with use the line.Just because the capacity is increases does not mean the number of passengers will automatically increase accordingly also.

The luas lines we have now were not "proven existing transport corridors" but yet people are using them. The fact that the metro does not go through existing transport corridors is the beauty of it. It opens up the rail network to new commuters. This will have knock-on effects as people will not only use it to get from metro stop to metro stop, they will also use it to access other rail lines increasing numbers on luas/dart/intercity rail also.

PVC King wrote:Ballymun Town Centre will prosper with out of town visitors going to Ikea; other than Dundrum Town Centre I am unaware of any major suburban shopping centre that relies heavily on public transport; certainly people are not going to go into Central Dublin and change to Metro North to visit a 50,000 sq m shopping centre when there are millions of square feet in the City Centre; same goes for Swords with phase 2 of the Pavillions and between Ballymun and Pavillions they will cannibalise each other to the point that traffic would be non-existant. Pavillions however is a great play on a weak Euro as being the first major shopping centre for northerners to leverage the strong pound when the currency goes back to equilibrium; Metro North or Spur to Northern line to attract shoppers from Belfast?


I was not merely referring to Ballymun as a shopping destination. I was talking about the new regenerated town which is developing which is projected to have a population of 40,000. This will require a transport link. You constantly dismiss these individual places but it is the combination of 6 or 7 popular stops along the route which will ensure high passenger numbers on the metro.

PVC King wrote:no such development land with adequate power and water supplies exists on the route of Metro North.


No development land, just existing settled, relatively affluent residential communities with limited public transport links. The kind of people who will use public transport if provided and the kind of people we should be targeting with these projects, not some guy in Malahide who doesnt have enough options already, lets route three rail lines past his house and open the entire city to him while neglecting everyone else... There is development potential at Ballymun on MN route though.

PVC King wrote:Rolled up interest results in interest being paid on interest; note Marmajam/Shytalk no longer talks about off balance sheet accounting; the proposal for Metro North is debt funded whatever way you look at it and Ireland can no longer raise debt at an attractive cost.


You talk a lot about how PPPs will turn Ireland into the next Greece. Just wondering how you would fund the interconnector, which will at least cost as much if not more due to the fact that the tunnel would have to be a double decker as stated in the Dublin Rail Plan you love so much in order to handle the "additional 65m p.a.x.", which is another issue you fail to address.

Metro North not only opens public transport to new users, it also links up most of the existing network. The interconnector is the final piece of the puzzle and would link up everything nicely, but has to be built when everything else is in place. Otherwise it only benefits people in Balbriggan and Kildare. Extending Green Line to Abbey Street, as you suggested on another thread, could be built at the same time providing greater links at a reduced cost.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Mon May 10, 2010 5:33 pm

Pete wrote: You misunderstand, my point was that, today, you dismiss extending transport routes to Terenure while you champion increasing routes to Malahide and other such areas which already have adequate transport links. Why?


On the contrary you ignore the physical; there is an existing rail line to Malahide; if one did not exist and if land take didn't exist you wouldn't build an underground there; same with Howth, Bray etc. But lines do exist and because of the loopline the interconnector is required to accomodate the development that has sprung up over the past 50 years in most cases at densities of much higher than 16 to the acre.




Pete wrote:I cant understand this campaign to improve public transport for those who already use it, instead of offering it to new customers. Many people who live in Kildare or North County Dublin use the current Dart line to get to work in the city centre regardless of they change to another intercity/luas line. Just because they can get to work without having to change post interconnector does not mean 3 times as many people with use the line.Just because the capacity is increases does not mean the number of passengers will automatically increase accordingly also.


The problem is that a lot of people can't get onto existing services because they are crush loaded a few stops from their departure point. There is proven demand; the routes to Ballymun and Swords have buses whilst the Airport has the aircoach. In time appropriate solutions can be found but at this stage in the fiscal cycle the metro makes no sense on financial grounds.


Pete wrote:The luas lines we have now were not "proven existing transport corridors" but yet people are using them. The fact that the metro does not go through existing transport corridors is the beauty of it. It opens up the rail network to new commuters. This will have knock-on effects as people will not only use it to get from metro stop to metro stop, they will also use it to access other rail lines increasing numbers on luas/dart/intercity rail also.


The Green line was proven as it was built on the Harcourt to Bray rail line; as such it provided a cheap trackbed and densities had increased since the line closed. The Red line is crushloaded as far as Heuston at peak times, highly successful as far as Fatima after that it is far from viable. Also both Luas lines cost about €800m the price tag for Metro is €2bn plus much higher operating costs as the stations are more complex.

Pete wrote:I was not merely referring to Ballymun as a shopping destination. I was talking about the new regenerated town which is developing which is projected to have a population of 40,000. This will require a transport link. You constantly dismiss these individual places but it is the combination of 6 or 7 popular stops along the route which will ensure high passenger numbers on the metro.


Ballymun has a current population of about 20,000 and please don't take this the wrong way but with housing more affordable than anytime in a decade in areas with stronger demographics; expanding that population will be a very hard sell.


Pete wrote:No development land, just existing settled, relatively affluent residential communities with limited public transport links. The kind of people who will use public transport if provided and the kind of people we should be targeting with these projects, not some guy in Malahide who doesnt have enough options already, lets route three rail lines past his house and open the entire city to him while neglecting everyone else... There is development potential at Ballymun on MN route though.


The big sell on the Transport 21 projects was the significant contribution that the private sector was going to make in the form of development levies of about €10,000 per residential unit built along the catchment. Given that NAMA owns virtually all the development land or will within a few months what were perfectly legitimate deductions in the financial maths no longer exist as it would be one government body paying another. Across each of the 4 interconnector corridors and Metro North you could have banked on 4,000 units per route yielding about €40m per route which would have made a decent dent in the interest bill. Sadly the market has moved to incentives and not taxes as the market needs help. If development levies were gradually re-introduced to the interconnector routes; the absence of development levies may assist the Metro North route to increase to more viable densities for a reassessment in 5 years time. But with an Airport runway right beside the only unbuilt area it is not exactly the ideal location to build unless it is affordable housing.


Pete wrote:You talk a lot about how PPPs will turn Ireland into the next Greece. Just wondering how you would fund the interconnector, which will at least cost as much if not more due to the fact that the tunnel would have to be a double decker as stated in the Dublin Rail Plan you love so much in order to handle the "additional 65m p.a.x.", which is another issue you fail to address.


Government paper for the sums not extended by the EIB to fund a standard construction tender based on the plans and particulars verified by An Bord Pleannala. Given that capacity that is already past breaking point on 3 rail lines can be doubled in one investment and the fourth grow significantly as the route no longer ends at Heuston makes the cost worth the benefit.

Pete wrote:Metro North not only opens public transport to new users, it also links up most of the existing network. The interconnector is the final piece of the puzzle and would link up everything nicely, but has to be built when everything else is in place. Otherwise it only benefits people in Balbriggan and Kildare. Extending Green Line to Abbey Street, as you suggested on another thread, could be built at the same time providing greater links at a reduced cost.


You miss the point; the rest of the network links up without Metro North; it serves a very low density suburban catchment and the airport and would operationally would be very expensive to run given the complexity of its subterranean concourse elements.
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby Pete » Fri May 14, 2010 4:21 pm

The metro links the city and will generate passengers numbers, not just on its route but on the whole Dublin rail system. Firstly, look at the stops on the metro route;
  • St Stephens Green, with link to Luas Green line (with enabling work done to allow delivery of interconnector in the future),
  • O'Connell Street, with link to Luas Red line (with enabling work done to allow delivery of BXD in the near future),
  • Mater Hospital and National Childrens Hospital (with station alread built as part of Mater redevelopment)
  • Drumcondra Station with link to Maynooth/Pace rail line
  • DCU (with 20,000 students and staff),
  • regenerated Ballymun with projected population of 40,000 (stop integrated into Theasury Holdings Ballymun Town Centre development)
  • the airport (with capacity for 35m passengers p.a.)
  • park and ride facilities further north for 2,600 cars.


To look at these stops in issolation and dismiss them individually would be wrong. Not only will people along the route be able to get to/from these destinations, people on Luas Red, Green and Maynooth rail lines will also avail of these stops. This increases passenger numbers on the whole network. The metro allows people to travel from; Stillorgan to the airport, Tallaght to Mater Hospital, Maynooth to DCU, Swords to O'Connell Street, Ballymun to Docklands, Clonsilla to St Stephens Green with only one change. These are just examples of how the metro will link up most parts of the city and none of these journeys would be possible if only the interconnector was built. (Of course existing Dart passengers will still to able to get to/from city centre and use these routes from there)

Contrast this with the limited service the interconnector would bring. To build the interconnector now and increase the capacity along this route is to put all our eggs into the one basket. Most of the existing passengers on the Dart would only use the interconnector, if built, to extend their journey from Heuston to St Stephens Green/Pearse Street, a distance of little over 3km, or from Connelly to St Stephens Green/Pearse Street, a distance of little under 2km. The benefit for existing commuters is relatively small considering they can already get to where they need to go by switching train/to luas or by walking a bit. This small extension is also not enough to treble passengers, at least not in the short term.

With the interconnector built and no metro would leave two main transport corridors in the city. Of these the interconnector route from Heuston to Malahide would contain two Dart lines, as well as the Northern Commuter line from Connelly, with only one other route (Maynooth line). This is not represent an efficient system and is very limited in terms of passenger destinations. Many communities, both northside and southside, would be neglected.

The metro would lead to more efficient and sustainable growth across the entire city in the future and it sets Dublin up for greater economic growth once we come out of recession. The interconnector can be built at a later date to enhanse the network further and increase capacity.

Metro North Tenderers Press Release
In the short term, Metro North will provide an important stimulus to construction activity. The project is expected to create 4,000 direct construction jobs and thousands more indirect jobs. The consortium that will be selected to build Metro North is likely to include both Irish and international contractors and much of the work will involve local contractors, professional service firms and local workers. Other sectors of the regional economy are likely to benefit such as those in the construction material supplying industry. There will also be secondary spin off impacts due to the expenditure of wages in the local economy by the construction workforce. Sectors which will benefit include accommodation and lunch and evening meal providers.

Metro North will address a significant deficit in public transport infrastructure in north Dublin city and in Fingal, the fastest growing county in Ireland. It will facilitate development in the corridor which is forecast by Fingal County Council to generate 37,000 additional jobs and more than double the existing level of economic activity and employment in the area. It is crucial to the continued expansion of Dublin Airport and will underpin the significant investment already made in the economic regeneration of Ballymun.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Fri May 14, 2010 5:04 pm

Pete

We have been through all those points before and you have not credibly dealt with the fact that all the predictions were made when the economy was experiencing growth of 8-12% p.a. In light of changed circumstances remove the words stop listing assets that exist independent of the proposed/culled metro north project do not use inapprpropriate words such as projected and capacity and factor in the installation of a Luas line to Drumcoundra and Ballymun as per Mammy O'Rourkes plan.

Where did you get the figure of 20,000 for DCU which in fact has 10,000 students and probably less than 1,000 staff of those a large number would be part time. Write fact not fiction.


Why the interconnector is a great project is that it is four development corridors excluding its City Centre Routing; between higher inner city densities and the four existing routes the Clonee extension and the Luas extensions there is enough serviced land to develop 20,000 homes a year for the next 20 years. The area between Ballymun and Swords does not need a Metro in the same way people don't want to live near an airport.

'Urgent' need to deal with deficits - IMF
Friday, 14 May 2010 16:24
The IMF has warned developed nations they face an "urgent" need to rein in budget deficits or risk stymied growth.

"As economies gradually recover, it is now urgent to start putting in place measures to ensure that the increase in deficits and debts resulting from the crisis... does not lead to fiscal sustainability problems," it warned in a high-profile report.

"If public debt is not lowered to precrisis levels, potential growth in advanced economies could decline by over half a percent annually, a very sizable effect when cumulated over several years."

AdvertisementThe warning came as Europe continues to be gripped by a debt crisis that has rippled out from Greece across the continent and the globe.

The Greek government is confronting widespread opposition to an austerity program needed to secure an European Union and the IMF bailout totaling €110 billion.
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby neutral » Fri May 14, 2010 10:07 pm

The area between Ballymun and Swords does not need a Metro in the same way people don't want to live near an airport.:mad:

There are plenty of people who live along the proposed metro line who would use the service and along with the IC might provide soon joined up transport service for the whole of Dublin.

Look at T2 at Dublin airport it has far more capacity than required at the moment but look ahead to 10/15 years time Dublin will be building T3.

Its a shame the IC has been delayed until 2018 why such a delay is allowed needs to be looked at and sorted out ASAP.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Sat May 15, 2010 10:46 am

What were your thoughts 12 years ago when Luas was announced for Ballymun?
PVC King
 

Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby Pete » Sat May 15, 2010 1:01 pm

PVCKing stop quoting these reports about reducing national debt to support your argument, you make it sound like the interconnector is free! The interconnector will cost almost as much but provide much less benefits. And continue to consider the metro route on a stop by stop basis which is not a true reflection of the benefits. It is the combination of rail transport to popular locations with no (or very limited in the case of SSG) rail transport (St Stephens Green, Mater Hospital, DCU, Airport), residential communities with relatively high populations but low densities (Phibsborough, Drumcondra, Ballymun, Swords) and links to other public transport systems (Luas Red and Green lines and Maynooth rail) that make the metro viable. Interconnector, on the other hand, brings people on the Dart/Northern Commuter Line and South Western Commuter line a little closer to the city centre.

A Dart spur to the airport does not make sense because it would follow the route of exisiting Dart line with only two new stops, Malahide Road and airport. So in effect this is really only an airport line, because all other stops, bar one, are already served. It is not worth the cost because you would spend a couple of hundred million building a new track from Malahide to the airport, quadtracking the line from Docklands to Malahide and reconfiguring, and in some cases complete redevelopment of stations on the line. All this just for the airport which, as you say yourself;

PVC King wrote:Tourists are not attracted to cities because of their airport terminals or connections to the city centre from same. Congrats to the DAA on terminal 2 and the improved management of terminal 1 of late but they have so much spare capacity that its only rational use is to try to encourage a major US carrier to code share with Aer Lingus developing a trans- Atlantic hub. Very few of those passengers will visit the City Centre. Dublin Airport will be a pleasure to use for many years to come because Ireland bound passenger numbers will at best grow very slowly from the current level which has declined 12.6% on the previous year; this trend could persist as clearly much of the travel in the previous years was based on a booming consumer credit market which will continue to tighten at least into the medium term.


Building a Luas to Drumcondra would cost another couple of million and again is not worth it. That means digging up the roads between St Stephens Green and Drumcondra, some of the busiest in the city, to link an area that is;

PVC King wrote:predominently 16 to the acre 3 bed semi's.


You are also building two separate lines (Luas from St Stephens Green to Drumcondra and Dart from Docklands to airport) to do what the metro can do in one go. The metro would certainly be cheaper per kilometer and offer better value for money. The metro line would also be more profitable by combining passengers from these two routes instead of splitting them and would also incorporate more stops. The four development corridors you speak of would still exist as all existing services would continue to operate, but with a fifth corridor with much more potential. To ensure continued economic prosperity in Dublin we need to move forward and continue to compete with other cities. To stand still is to be left behind. The metro does more for the city than the interconnector and will have guaranteed passengers from the day it opens. The interconnector can be built in 5-10 years time, by which time there might actually be need to increase capacity on the current rail lines.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Sat May 15, 2010 1:15 pm

Pete wrote: PVCKing stop quoting these reports about reducing national debt to support your argument, you make it sound like the interconnector is free! The interconnector will cost almost as much but provide much less benefits. And continue to consider the metro route on a stop by stop basis which is not a true reflection of the benefits. .


Provide the case study that backs that point up; that is simply ridiculous...


Pete wrote: It is the combination of rail transport to popular locations with no (or very limited in the case of SSG) rail transport (St Stephens Green, Mater Hospital, DCU, Airport), residential communities with relatively high populations but low densities (Phibsborough, Drumcondra, Ballymun, Swords) and links to other public transport systems (Luas Red and Green lines and Maynooth rail) that make the metro viable. Interconnector, on the other hand, brings people on the Dart/Northern Commuter Line and South Western Commuter line a little closer to the city centre..


No it removes the loopline blockage enhancing 4 lines and creating high density development opportunites in Dublin 8; you assess catchments by drawing a 1kms circle from each station; on this basis metro has a very very low population catchment and very small plot size making redvelopment very diifcult.

Pete wrote: A Dart spur to the airport does not make sense because it would follow the route of exisiting Dart line with only two new stops, Malahide Road and airport. So in effect this is really only an airport line, because all other stops, bar one, are already served. It is not worth the cost because you would spend a couple of hundred million building a new track from Malahide to the airport, quadtracking the line from Docklands to Malahide and reconfiguring, and in some cases complete redevelopment of stations on the line. All this just for the airport which, as you say yourself;Building a Luas to Drumcondra would cost another couple of million and again is not worth it. That means digging up the roads between St Stephens Green and Drumcondra, some of the busiest in the city, to link an area that is.


The Northern line does not need to be quad tracked; the blockage is South of Connolly.



BXD which is proposed by the same agency will dig all those streets up anyway; this was looked at pre-port tunnel by this government and the externalities were found to be acceptable.

Pete wrote: You are also building two separate lines (Luas from St Stephens Green to Drumcondra and Dart from Docklands to airport) to do what the metro can do in one go. The metro would certainly be cheaper per kilometer and offer better value for money. The metro line would also be more profitable by combining passengers from these two routes instead of splitting them and would also incorporate more stops. The four development corridors you speak of would still exist as all existing services would continue to operate, but with a fifth corridor with much more potential. To ensure continued economic prosperity in Dublin we need to move forward and continue to compete with other cities. To stand still is to be left behind. The metro does more for the city than the interconnector and will have guaranteed passengers from the day it opens. The interconnector can be built in 5-10 years time, by which time there might actually be need to increase capacity on the current rail lines.


You are saying that the c20kms Metro is cheaper per kilmoter than enhancing in excess of 100kms of existing track. You obviously either work for the RPA or live on the soon to be culled from the drawing board line as you are so far short of objectivity on this that it is painful.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby neutral » Sat May 15, 2010 11:41 pm

PVC King wrote:What were your thoughts 12 years ago when Luas was announced for Ballymun?


Never going to happen with the road space too narrow along the Drumcondra Road close to the Cat + Cage pub and while it was announced no firm date to start phase 2 of Luas then!!!!

I still think both the MN and IC will help each other passenger figures wise and also feed into the Luas lines and of course CIE bus services.

let's be positive and for once plan ahead and put the transport services in for the next 20 to 30 years and provide excess capacity and not end up like the M50/Dublin Airport/Water Services around Dublin need I say any more!
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Sun May 16, 2010 10:42 am

I don't buy the Cat and Cage argument as when the routing was announced it was in the context of the Port Tunnel not being completed which has made a significant difference to traffic levels on Drumcoundra Road by banning large numbers of HGVs en route from N7 to N1 who didn't want to pay the toll on the M50. This area also has a continuous bus lane; without going off point too much there are also fall back positions such as CPO powers to remove parking areas, gardens or worst case some buildings or the route could see a change back towards Glasnevan once the key Drumcoundra station stop was passed.

The IC in isolation does plan for the growth of the City providing 4 seperate development corridors along existing rail lines by creating capaicty on each of those lines. In addition you have two Luas extensions that are now into Green Fields which the development machine will target as soon as the resdiential development market recovers in 4-5 years time.

What I don't buy is that the Metro North project is critical; it would provide capacity but in the wrong places; other than serving the Airport it addreses no strategic needs; you mention the M50 upgrade you should consider this another way; the real analogy are the development densities along the proposed Metro route at locations such as Swords and Ballymun; if the three lane approach were adopted then the densities would have been a multiple of what they are; which is housebuilder led sprawl versus a Lyonesque vision of sustainability. You don't spend billions at a time of austerity plugging in low density urban sprawl you target investments that produce significant additional capacity from the existing infrastructure.

The frightening part is that there is no EIB funding for the Interconnector; not even an application listed on their website.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby neutral » Sun May 16, 2010 1:45 pm

[quote="PVC King"]I don't buy the Cat and Cage argument

The problem there is the lack or road space that's available at that point its more or less one lane each way for a while as there are also shops beside the pub.

Believe me the traffic is still there not as bad since the port tunnel opened but I'm passing that way most days and the last thing it needs is double luas lines.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby cgcsb » Sun May 16, 2010 2:04 pm

I wonder what the final colour scheme for the network will be, obviously, this is unacceptable:

Image

and let's not talk about this:

Image
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby Global Citizen » Sun May 16, 2010 2:16 pm

cgcsb wrote:I wonder what the final colour scheme for the network will be, obviously, this is unacceptable:




Awful indeed.
Harry Beck would turn in his grave.
It looks like the designers ran out of red and yellow felt tips.

I love the way Inchicore is mooted as a "Future Station" as if all the others currently exist.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby missarchi » Sun May 16, 2010 2:30 pm

The notion stations cannot have colors is also flawed.
What is wrong with an orange station on a green line and vice versa...
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Sun May 16, 2010 9:27 pm

neutral wrote:
PVC King wrote:I don't buy the Cat and Cage argument

The problem there is the lack or road space that's available at that point its more or less one lane each way for a while as there are also shops beside the pub.

Believe me the traffic is still there not as bad since the port tunnel opened but I'm passing that way most days and the last thing it needs is double luas lines.



So as opposed to CPO'ing a few plots and widening the road; you'd advocate spending billions to build a metro. Which from the EIB funding application listings it would appear will be at the expense of the Interconnector.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby neutral » Sun May 16, 2010 9:54 pm

PVC King wrote:
neutral wrote:

So as opposed to CPO'ing a few plots and widening the road; you'd advocate spending billions to build a metro. Which from the EIB funding application listings it would appear will be at the expense of the Interconnector.


No I would propose to complete both MN + IC as per plans and would expect to see the IC receive EIB funding on the same scale as MN when their application for planning permission is at the same stage as MN.

The Luas line as proposed many years ago to the airport is long gone.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Mon May 17, 2010 7:41 am

neutral wrote:
PVC King wrote:
No I would propose to complete both MN + IC as per plans and would expect to see the IC receive EIB funding on the same scale as MN when their application for planning permission is at the same stage as MN.

The Luas line as proposed many years ago to the airport is long gone.



I am beginning ito wonder f you ever looked at the Luas proposal to Ballymun as it was never intended to go to Dublin airport. Simply up Drumcoundra Road and on to Ballymun with a few CPO's to remove a little garden here and there.

In terms of the planning process there is little difference between MN and IC one is mired in poor drafting whilst the other deferred their application on foot of pre-planning meetings given that the MN application is unapproved it is clear that the tender process is entirely premature and will end up being rewritten; with the taxpayer paying the bill. The only parrallel one could draw is the Deloitte computer consultancy for the HSE.

What I can't figure out is why a 'price to be determined' application wasn't made.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby BluntGuy » Wed May 19, 2010 2:57 am

Between the Interconnector and Metro North, the IC is certainly the less glamorous project, but it is far more important.

Let's do a basic comparison.

Metro North

- I will take that it will cost somewhere between 4-6 billion euro. I appreciate that tender prices are cheaper, but no one has verified this so-called 2 billion euro cost. If the Metro North costs 1.7 billion euro, then certainly it is worth pursuing. Once we get into 3-6 billion euro figures, we really have to start looking.at what we're getting for that sum of money.

- 18 km of new-build line.

- 19 stops. 3 of which will provide interchange - Drumcondra (to DART) SSG (to DART) & Luas, Connolly to Luas. As you can see, two of its three connections are dependent on Interconnector.

- Provides a link from the City-Centre to the Airport.

- Services Ballymun and Swords which are not currently serviced by any rail.

- Links to Connolly and Heuston via Red-Line Luas.

- 4-5 minute peak-time intervals. 90m light-rail rolling stock.

- Does not physically integrate with any other networks. We have a vague proposal for an extension to the Green Line and then the Luas West which is really just crayonville. The RPA love pointing out how Luas and Metro vehicles will be able to interoperable but the fact is, no links will actually be provided. None of the railway order documents (which I have read) even hint at this.

- Terminates in a field north of Bellinstown. North of Swords there is incredibly little demand.

- Passenger figures based on unrealistic groundings.

- Estimates 35 million pax.


Interconnector:

- Like MN, no concrete cost has been given. 4 billion is the figure I hear branded about most often for the overall Interconnector project. I've heard 1.5 billion, I've heard 6 billion. Figures are all over the place. While I believe IC will be far cheaper than MN, I'm going to assume 4-5 billion for the purpose of this comparison.

- 8.3 km of new build line.

- 6 stops. All of which will provide interchange. Inchicore (to Luas), Christchurch (to Luas), Heuston to Intercity/Luas, SSG to Luas ( & Metro North), Pearse to DART #2, Docklands to Luas/Commuter. Of the interchanges only 2 are wholly dependent on other projects being forwarded. The rest provide interchange regardless of whether MN or Lucan Luas etc. go ahead.

- Provides a link from the Heuston area to the new Docklands district as well as two vital city centre locations at Pearse and St.Stephen's Green (not currently served by rail).

- Link to Connolly via DART #2.

- Initially 16 trains per hour through tunnel. i.e 4 minute intervals. 174m platforms allowing for 8 car DARTs.

- Physically integrates with existing networks. Integrates with Northern Line at East Wall junction and with Cork mainline at Inchicore.

- Provides for electrification as far as Hazelhatch, Maynooth and Drogheda. Provides for order of 800 new DART rolling stock to service this. This frees up commuter rolling stock.

- Creates two new high-capacity DART lines running East-West and North-South, intersecting at Pearse.

- Increases capacity on existing lines - e.g Northern Line 10 tph --> 21 tph, Maynooth Line 6 tph --> 16 tph.

- Expects to triple capacity on its new network to 100 million pax. Though I've yet to see justification for those figures.


When you stack up the comparisons it seems pretty clear to me that there is one project - Interconnector - that deserves absolute priority. MN might be a nice shiny looking new line on the map and it has its positives, but the Interconnector project gets to the core of a major deficit in the network and fixes it. It doesn't fix everything mind you, and there are opportunities for smaller improvements that could be made even without IC. But IC plugs a gap in service nicely, and allows us to make use of our existing infrastructure. MN is like an Interconnector for lines that don't actually exist yet and are unlikely to ever exist in the medium-long term because they aren't viable.

As much as I don't like Irish Rail, their recent proposals have made far more sense than the rubbish the RPA are pumping out. I applaud them on the success of the Green and Red Luas, but that doesn't mean you can just get out your crayons and start dotting down Luas lines everywhere. The Lucan Luas and Luas West are perfect examples of this. Why would anyone want to sit 50 minutes on a winding tram when Bus Eireann have recently published plans to beef up the bus service, thus making it far more competitive.

Any money earmarked for that would be far better spent on providing a link from the Maynooth line to the Heuston one, allowing allow Intercity services to terminate at Heuston and giving all priority to DARTs and scaled-down commuter services.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby PVC King » Wed May 19, 2010 9:24 am

Blunt and to the point. :D

I think looking at MN from a sum of its parts approach would be useful

1. Spur to Dublin Airpot c €500m
2. Spur to Swords c€250m
3. Luas to Ballymun c€500m
4. Park n Ride North Dublin = 2,600 * 15,000 c €40m

Total €1.29bn

The cost if it can be really acheived for €1.7bn is €410m more expensive; however once it is operationally efficient to point that the operational subvention is at the lower end of subvention norms then it is an acceptable. There are however four major caveats that need to be addressed.

1. The €1.7bn would need to be actual cost payable by way of the normal S-Curve distribution funding model and not some exotic funding structure that pays a spread above sovereign rates

2. That the passenger numbers would need to be stress tested to a recessionary loading i.e. at about 21-23m pax to see what the annual operational loss would be.

3. That a €100 - €200 per square meter development levy be placed on all development within 1km of the route for the next 20 years including domestic extensions to make up the €410m shortfall.

4. That the funding environment would permit both Metro North and the Interconnector which is a far more strategically valuable and necessary project.

We will soon see if the RPA have been able to leverage the poor construction pmi conditions or were over-optimistic in their ability to mask the true folly of the original costings.
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Re: Interconnector aka DART underground

Postby missarchi » Wed May 19, 2010 1:15 pm

Did you allow for quad tracking in those costs to the junction area?
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