Metro North

Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:29 pm

PVC King wrote:Singapore and Dubai have a key advantage; a very ambitous flag carrier that is supported by sovereign wealth funds with very deep pockets; except Dubai is the national equivelent of Metro North and had to be bailed out. Good luck to DAA on getting Air India to dock 2 or 3 daily flights but how many Indians will want to visit Dublin City Centre?


Plenty, considering it's a great tourist attraction with lots of things to see and do. With a direct rail link to the city centre via Metro North, it'll be an easy thing for them to get there.


You can't compare London's underground development to Dublin; one is a City with 8m inside its ring motorway which has a core of 6 storey average building heights that covers probably 20 square miles.


Oh yes I can. We're talking about a city which is only starting to put in an underground network. London was in the same situation in the 19th century. That's why it makes sense to compare Dublin of today to London of the 1850s. Dublin today has about the same population as London then. If the underground was a proposition for a London of 1.5 million people, it makes sense for a Dublin of 1.5 million people.

Swords has been held up along with the Airport and Ballymun as a key provider of passengers to make the service viable; the population statistics supplied are clearly flawed.


Swords and Ballymun are large suburbs with Swords alone having a population in tens of thousands - far greater than your figure of 10,000. On the basis of this and the fact that there's an airport which can now carry 35 million passengers annually along its route, there's demand there for a Metro.


S & P are the experts in credit risk management; it is fair to say that sub-prime had more to do with a deterioration in lending standards and misinformation provided by banks to rating agencies as they could only rate what they were given. If you want to use the ESRI whose predictions are based on their advice being followed you may wish to see their views on Infrastructure spending.


In that report they're arguing against infrastructure spending as a stimulus to economic policy. They're not arguing against infrastructure spending per se. That would be ridiculous as it is the government's responsibility to spend a part of our tax money on providing us with road, rail, waterworks etc. to make our country livable. I remind you again, this country in the past has shown severe short-sightedness with regard to infrastructure to the cost of future generations. Our rail and tram networks were destroyed by governments who failed to think ahead. Thankfully, with the public works programme of the last few and forthcoming years, that short-sightedness is beginning to end. There seems to be a real eye to the future in our capital budget.








Drumcoundra station is than one mile from O'Connell Street via Lower Dorset St and Parnell Sq. The aircoach takes 15 mins from Quinns pub to the airport.


It's one mile from the top of O'Connell St, but who ever walks just to the top of O'Connell St. and just stays there? The real attractions are further down at the GPO, Spire, Eason's and Clerys. With a Metro line running beside Drumcondra, it'll be so handy to switch from the DART to the Metro and be at the bottom of O'Connell St. in only a few minutes. So much handier than trudging the streets and potentially getting lost.

On top of this, the Drumcondra stop is very near to Croke Park. Thousands of people will be able to use the Metro to get to Croker for matches, concerts and events at the conference centre. Another use of the Metro which makes it even more viable.

The point depot is a star attraction; can you not get some grasp of scale. If students are going to avoid graduate taxation as is common in the UK they wouold do well to get on their bikes and figure out that they have got to prove themselves and are not owed anything from the system they have yet to contribute to.


Get on their bikes. That reminds me of a rather callous speech made by Norman Tebbit at the height of the unemployment crisis in the very UK you mention. At the minute DCU is lost on the northside and isn't adequately served by public transport. A QBC is easy to run by UCD because the N11 is at a tangent to the grounds. DCU has no such luck. Trinity has its station at Pearse and numerous bus routes, Maynooth has its train station and bus routes, the new Grangegorman DIT will have Broadstone and bus routes. Why can't DCU have its station via the Metro North?

The fact is that DCU is a rapidly growing university - it only gained this status 20 years ago - and serves as a major market for the Metro North. In 2019, when MN is taking passengers, there could easily be 18,000 students there.

Finally on DCU, if you don't care about the students, then what about the people who are there to teach them and work in DCU administration? Haven't they contributed through their PAYE, PRSI and pension levies? Don't they deserve a reliable public transport to their place of work?


Lifts to service underground concourses are rare internationally because of the costs of installing and maintaining them; I fully support disabled access in places where passenger demand exists to justify a system that is fit for purpose.


Well all I'll say is that I was in Rome, Barcelona and London - all cities with an underground, and I saw lots of lifts at stations. In any case, if people are too delicate to take the Metro going to Mater, they can take it coming home when they've been treated.


Luas was a first project for the RPA; subsequent projects were within their comfort zone; do you want the RPA on a learning curve again?


Yes, because Dublin needs an underground railway system and, after the success of the Jack Lynch, Port and Limerick Tunnels, we can apply this experience to boring the Metro North and Interconnector tunnels.


You can't compare the interconnector to the Metro proposal; one delivers capacity on 5 existing lines the other intersects with other elements of the network; extending Luas to the Maynooth line gives the same interconnectivity at a fraction of the cost.


I wasn't comparing the interconnector to the Metro. They're obviously different. One sews up the DART network while the other gives a direct rail link from the city centre to the airport - something which should be a standard feature in any European capital city. The government has €39 billion to spend over the next 6 years. MN and DARTu can be funded out of this package.

The problem with a Luas connection is that it is subject to the vagaries of on-street traffic. Metro North has no such problems and can get you from Swords to the city and back fast and without delay.

Anything that doesn't work on a 20 year timeframe doesn't work; if someone offered a 100 year loan with an interest holiday for 80 years you would have an argument. As someone living in a city with extensive public transport I can see where it works and where it doesn't. Metro North does not have the population density to justify the cost.


Short-termist thinking yet again. The tram lines probably didn't yield a return in the 1950s yet had they been retained, we wouldn't have had to spend over a billion now rebuilding them over another 20 year period. The same goes for all the rail infrastructure dismantled. Metro North will deliver immediate returns in terms of easier access to the northside and future returns to our children and their children.


ESRI
Deptment of Finance
Irish Times


All of these bodies are calling for Infrastructure spending to be pulled in or have found Metro North not to be viable. What part of route does not have the density to make it a viable project do you not get?


Population densities change and they will change again over the next 9 years as we wait for the first carriages of MN to arrive. What's more is that having a Metro stop nearby will encourage development and investment in the Northside. Now that MN and DART will serve Drumcondra you could see that area receive higher-density development over the next 30 years. The same goes for Northwood and Fosterstown. These places can thrive now that there is a Metro stop nearby.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Wed Aug 11, 2010 7:27 am

Cathal Dunne wrote: Plenty, considering it's a great tourist attraction with lots of things to see and do. With a direct rail link to the city centre via Metro North, it'll be an easy thing for them to get there..


Get real; passenger fly in from Mumbai; get off the plane check in through US Immigration and get back on the plane; the sole beneficiary area will be Duty Free which will be limited to perfume and premium spirits as cigerettes are infinitiely cheaper in India. What you have described is a glorified refueling arrangement. The deal is done out of the desperation of realising that 15m of un-needed capacity has been created.




Cathal Dunne wrote:Oh yes I can. We're talking about a city which is only starting to put in an underground network. London was in the same situation in the 19th century. That's why it makes sense to compare Dublin of today to London of the 1850s. Dublin today has about the same population as London then. If the underground was a proposition for a London of 1.5 million people, it makes sense for a Dublin of 1.5 million people..


No comparison is valid with Metro North fior two reasons; firstly the undergound was built to link existing rail heads such as Victoria, Paddington and Kings Cross. Secondly the City already had an average development density of 5-6 storey buildings along its entire route before it was built.

Do not forget that for every tube journey in London there are two by bus.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Swords and Ballymun are large suburbs with Swords alone having a population in tens of thousands - far greater than your figure of 10,000. On the basis of this and the fact that there's an airport which can now carry 35 million passengers annually along its route, there's demand there for a Metro. .


Even the RPA admit that 35m passengers was a 2015 figure based on a very different set of projections; refer to the ESRI projection above that the population is likely to fall by 120,000 in a mere 2 years. Your projections are utter fantasy.



Cathal Dunne wrote:In that report they're arguing against infrastructure spending as a stimulus to economic policy. They're not arguing against infrastructure spending per se. That would be ridiculous as it is the government's responsibility to spend a part of our tax money on providing us with road, rail, waterworks etc. to make our country livable. I remind you again, this country in the past has shown severe short-sightedness with regard to infrastructure to the cost of future generations. Our rail and tram networks were destroyed by governments who failed to think ahead. Thankfully, with the public works programme of the last few and forthcoming years, that short-sightedness is beginning to end. There seems to be a real eye to the future in our capital budget..



So building a metro with no economic viability that has been rejected by the Dept of Finance is something other than economic stimulus. There won't be a next government with any decision making power unless deficits are slashed.



Cathal Dunne wrote:It's one mile from the top of O'Connell St, but who ever walks just to the top of O'Connell St. and just stays there? The real attractions are further down at the GPO, Spire, Eason's and Clerys. With a Metro line running beside Drumcondra, it'll be so handy to switch from the DART to the Metro and be at the bottom of O'Connell St. in only a few minutes. So much handier than trudging the streets and potentially getting lost.

On top of this, the Drumcondra stop is very near to Croke Park. Thousands of people will be able to use the Metro to get to Croker for matches, concerts and events at the conference centre. Another use of the Metro which makes it even more viable..


Croke Park would be served by Drumcoundra station the location of which already provides the same proximity. Your trudging the streets remark is infantile; people can take buses; there are two bus journeys in London for every tube journey.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Get on their bikes. That reminds me of a rather callous speech made by Norman Tebbit at the height of the unemployment crisis in the very UK you mention. At the minute DCU is lost on the northside and isn't adequately served by public transport. A QBC is easy to run by UCD because the N11 is at a tangent to the grounds. DCU has no such luck. Trinity has its station at Pearse and numerous bus routes, Maynooth has its train station and bus routes, the new Grangegorman DIT will have Broadstone and bus routes. Why can't DCU have its station via the Metro North? .


Because the money isn't there; have you forgotton the budget deficit is 19.75% of GDP.

Cathal Dunne wrote:The fact is that DCU is a rapidly growing university - it only gained this status 20 years ago - and serves as a major market for the Metro North. In 2019, when MN is taking passengers, there could easily be 18,000 students there.

Finally on DCU, if you don't care about the students, then what about the people who are there to teach them and work in DCU administration? Haven't they contributed through their PAYE, PRSI and pension levies? Don't they deserve a reliable public transport to their place of work? .


There will not be 18,000 students in DCU in 2019; we don't know how many full time students are there now as the only figure includes part time students. You are starting to sound very desperate.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Well all I'll say is that I was in Rome, Barcelona and London - all cities with an underground, and I saw lots of lifts at stations. In any case, if people are too delicate to take the Metro going to Mater, they can take it coming home when they've been treated. .


How many underground lines did any of these cities have under 3 bed semi detached houses?


Cathal Dunne wrote:Yes, because Dublin needs an underground railway system and, after the success of the Jack Lynch, Port and Limerick Tunnels, we can apply this experience to boring the Metro North and Interconnector tunnels. .


Big difference between a road tunnel and an underground; there are no concourses in road tunnel; no escalators; much smaller fire agress provision. A bit like sending a train to your local kwik fit for repair, very different skill set.


Cathal Dunne wrote:I wasn't comparing the interconnector to the Metro. They're obviously different. One sews up the DART network while the other gives a direct rail link from the city centre to the airport - something which should be a standard feature in any European capital city. The government has €39 billion to spend over the next 6 years. MN and DARTu can be funded out of this package. .


Two downgrades recently from the ratings agencies and the highest deficit in the developed World; there is no €39bn or anything like it for capital expenditure. Just look at the announcement of the ancillary Pace - Navan rail line to get a guage on just how unrealistic Dempsey and co are being. Metro North is the weakest link - goodbye


Cathal Dunne wrote:The problem with a Luas connection is that it is subject to the vagaries of on-street traffic. Metro North has no such problems and can get you from Swords to the city and back fast and without delay. .


You can say that about any on street route; however the Green line operates perfectly well on street and was affordable.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Short-termist thinking yet again. The tram lines probably didn't yield a return in the 1950s yet had they been retained, we wouldn't have had to spend over a billion now rebuilding them over another 20 year period. The same goes for all the rail infrastructure dismantled. Metro North will deliver immediate returns in terms of easier access to the northside and future returns to our children and their children..


You can go off and live in your Avatar World; the rest of us are unfortunatley stuck in the present; where money has a very real opportunity cost.



Cathal Dunne wrote:Population densities change and they will change again over the next 9 years as we wait for the first carriages of MN to arrive. What's more is that having a Metro stop nearby will encourage development and investment in the Northside. Now that MN and DART will serve Drumcondra you could see that area receive higher-density development over the next 30 years. The same goes for Northwood and Fosterstown. These places can thrive now that there is a Metro stop nearby.


Fingal is developing about 1,000 homes a year the majority of these are in Blanchardstown or on the coast. The development argument died with Bear Sterns and the unravelling of Anglo.

You need to see reality.

Airport 20m-25m passengers
Swords Urban pop 10,000 - 15,000
ESRI opposed
Dept of Finance opposed
Irish Times opposed
Development along route <1,000 units per year

There is a limited argument for a Luas line along this route; there a more compelling one for a QBC
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby Frank Taylor » Wed Aug 11, 2010 3:41 pm

ESRI's assessment was more complicated than simply to oppose:
http://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp301.html

They showed how two different assessment methods led to two different conclusions. Carbon tax has been introduced since this paper was published and the RPA has released an edited version of its CBA. Also they admit that the cost benefit will improve as additional lines are added to the network such as the interconnector.

Also have a look at this report for the oireachtas transport committee evaluating and endorsing the RPA's CBA.
http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/committees29thdail/jct/metro-report/Report.doc

I don't know what evidence there is that the DoF opposes metro north in principle. DoF asks for a return above 4% on capital projects. So long as MN delivers this I can't see that they will oppose.

The Irish Times is an entertainment newspaper with a stable of tenured polemicists who offer their uninformed but florid opinions. I'm not sure anyone is too worried about how John Waters or Roisin Ingle feels about the value of a Metro in Dublin.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Wed Aug 11, 2010 7:04 pm

Frank

Nice try on the O'Reilly report; but lets put that document into sequence; this 2004 document was sent to the Transport Committee who then sent it to Finance who then binned the project. To give a 4% return on capital Metro North would need to produce a surplus of between €80m - €200m a year; no one has ever produced the loss it would make operationally but as a project it would have a negative RoI. A 2010 cost benefit analysis would be beneficial but clearly 2004 bearts no resemblance to 2010.

On the Irish Times I fully agree that John Waters is a scream but Frank McDonald is clearly the only infrastructure journalist to be considered an authority on Transport infrastructure; his views are very well known; Interconnector as must have project; Metro North not viable and not costed.

As for the ESRI; they couldn't have made their views any clearer on Metro North and a plethora of other unviable projects such as the Tuam Motorway not being viable and that if economic stimulus is to take place then resources absolutely need to be prioritised towards training.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:13 pm

PVC King wrote:Get real; passenger fly in from Mumbai; get off the plane check in through US Immigration and get back on the plane; the sole beneficiary area will be Duty Free which will be limited to perfume and premium spirits as cigerettes are infinitiely cheaper in India. What you have described is a glorified refueling arrangement. The deal is done out of the desperation of realising that 15m of un-needed capacity has been created.


What it is is international recognition that Dublin Airport can be considered a major hub for airlines. The fact we have one of only 2 US immigration clearance facilities gives Dublin Airport a competitive advantage in getting this business. The 15 million capacity is very much needed as this is an island nation. As you said, the current terminal only has 8 years of capacity left. Ireland's population and economy will recover and continue to grow over the next 20-30 years. Now that Terminal 2 has been built Ireland has that airport capacity to meet the demand.

No comparison is valid with Metro North fior two reasons; firstly the undergound was built to link existing rail heads such as Victoria, Paddington and Kings Cross. Secondly the City already had an average development density of 5-6 storey buildings along its entire route before it was built.


Metro North links with DARTu and DART at Drumcondra. Density along the MN line can grow over the century it will be in operation.

Do not forget that for every tube journey in London there are two by bus.


And there'll be bus stops along Metro North which will knit these modes of transport together.


Even the RPA admit that 35m passengers was a 2015 figure based on a very different set of projections; refer to the ESRI projection above that the population is likely to fall by 120,000 in a mere 2 years. Your projections are utter fantasy.


The ESRI predicted net emigration of 120,000. That forecast is hugely doubtful given that they forecast net emigration of 50,000 for 2009 and the real figure was 7,800. In any case, natural increase of 100,000+ will cancel out such an exodus. I would also like to remind you that Metro North won't be open until 2019. By that time the economy will have recovered, grown and seen an end to net emigration. Stop thinking about how Ireland is now and look to what Ireland will be in the 2020s and you'll see what Metro North will be serving. By that time Ireland's economy will be larger with more people and need more public transport options.

So building a metro with no economic viability that has been rejected by the Dept of Finance is something other than economic stimulus. There won't be a next government with any decision making power unless deficits are slashed.


Deficits are being slashed. The government is committed to an austerity programme which should see our deficit brought under control by 2014.


Croke Park would be served by Drumcoundra station the location of which already provides the same proximity. Your trudging the streets remark is infantile; people can take buses; there are two bus journeys in London for every tube journey.


Not if you're coming from the west or north. If you're coming from Palmerstown to a match, you'll be able to take a bus to O'Connell St., hop on MN, get off at Drumcondra and walk to Croker. If you're coming from Tyrone you can park your car at the park and ride at Bellinstown and get the Metro down to Drumcondra and walk to Croker. Moreover, not everyone going to Croke Park is going to a match. If you are from Sandyford and going to a U2 concert there, you'll be able to get the Luas Green line to Stephen's Green and complete the journey via MN.


Because the money isn't there; have you forgotton the budget deficit is 19.75% of GDP.


I haven't forgotten and there is money there, just not as much of it. We can still do somethings and, with tender prices down 20% as a result of the recession, we can do more than you give us credit.

There will not be 18,000 students in DCU in 2019; we don't know how many full time students are there now as the only figure includes part time students. You are starting to sound very desperate.


Au contraire, it is you who is getting desperate. Here are the actual figures from the DCU website -

Full Time and Modular Students: 8,909
Part-Time Students: 1,579

So 85% of DCU's students are full time and in need of quality reliable public transport. Add in the 2-3,000 staff at DCU, the people who would be going to and fro the Helix and the people of Whitehall who would like to use the Metro to get into Town and you have a sizable market for a Metro stop.

In addition to this, DCU has risen rapidly through the THES University rankings in recent years. This makes it very likely that it will continue to grow over short to medium term. It is therefore quite sensible to put in place transport provision like a Metro stop.

Two downgrades recently from the ratings agencies and the highest deficit in the developed World; there is no €39bn or anything like it for capital expenditure. Just look at the announcement of the ancillary Pace - Navan rail line to get a guage on just how unrealistic Dempsey and co are being. Metro North is the weakest link - goodbye


That's 1980s thinking. We cut back on the capital programme to nothing and it was all to our cost as we didn't have the infrastructure to cope with our boom in the 1990s. The capital budget has been reduced, but we can still spend about 4% of GDP on capital projects every year. That's about €5.3 billion a year and some of that money can go towards MN.

You can say that about any on street route; however the Green line operates perfectly well on street and was affordable.


You can't be confident on that with every route. With MN underground, we will finally have a quick and reliable rail link between the airport and the city centre. That should be a sine qua non of any European capital city.




You can go off and live in your Avatar World; the rest of us are unfortunatley stuck in the present; where money has a very real opportunity cost.


Avatar world? That's a great way to respond to my point about how, at almost every point in our independent history, our infrastructural plans had no vision and no consideration of the long term. Thankfully with a Terminal 2, DARTu, Metro North, intercity motorway network etc. we finally have a strategy which seems to be about providing for the future. I would ask you to stop focussing on what's immediately before you and think about what way you want this country to be like in 10, 20 and 30 years' time. If you're not prepared to look to future and put in plans now as to how to achieve it then you are doomed to stay stuck in the present.

Airport 20m-25m passengers


At the minute. In 2020 there could easily be 30 million using the airport - just when MN is getting up and running.

Swords Urban pop 10,000 - 15,000


Swords' population has grown rapidly over the past 10 years and has the capacity to grow much further over the next 10. It is a major suburb which would benefit from the service of a rail link to the city centre.

ESRI opposed


As posted above, this is more nuanced than this.

Dept of Finance opposed


The Dept of Finance doesn't like spending money on principle. They're beancounters, not transport engineers. The DoF tried to finance the M50 on the cheap during the 80s and we ended up with just two lanes and bad interchanges. We had to spend over a billion correcting this mistake.

Irish Times opposed


Correction, Frank McDonald is opposed. The Irish Times merely lets him hold forth on these views. I agree with McDonald on a lot of things but not on this. As on Letters to Editor suggested, perhaps he just suffers from hadesphobia.

Development along route <1,000 units per year


Existing development of large suburbs, the island's premier airport, DCU, Croke Park, Mater and National Children's Hospitals, O'Connell St. and St. Stephen's Green. In addition to this, we will see lots of people switching between MN and DARTu, MN and the Red Line, MN and Green Line and MN and DART at Drumcondra plus local bus routes.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:48 pm

Cathal Dunne wrote:

Metro North links with DARTu and DART at Drumcondra. Density along the MN line can grow over the century it will be in operation. .


Drumcoundra has rail coverting to Dart it is served; where is the 80 year interest free loan?


Cathal Dunne wrote:Deficits are being slashed. The government is committed to an austerity programme which should see our deficit brought under control by 2014. .



The deficit is 19.75% that is far from under control; ask the ratings agencies what they think.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Au contraire, it is you who is getting desperate. Here are the actual figures from the DCU website -

Full Time and Modular Students: 8,909
Part-Time Students: 1,579

So 85% of DCU's students are full time and in need of quality reliable public transport. Add in the 2-3,000 staff at DCU, the people who would be going to and fro the Helix and the people of Whitehall who would like to use the Metro to get into Town and you have a sizable market for a Metro stop.

In addition to this, DCU has risen rapidly through the THES University rankings in recent years. This makes it very likely that it will continue to grow over short to medium term. It is therefore quite sensible to put in place transport provision like a Metro stop..


Small numbers and nowhere near enough to sustain an underground station as it is surrounded by 3 bedroom semi-detached houses.

T
Cathal Dunne wrote:hat's 1980s thinking. We cut back on the capital programme to nothing and it was all to our cost as we didn't have the infrastructure to cope with our boom in the 1990s. The capital budget has been reduced, but we can still spend about 4% of GDP on capital projects every year. That's about €5.3 billion a year and some of that money can go towards MN..


Think about how the 1980's recession ended; it was when run away public spending including capital spending was brought under control.

Cathal Dunne wrote:Avatar world? That's a great way to respond to my point about how, at almost every point in our independent history, our infrastructural plans had no vision and no consideration of the long term. Thankfully with a Terminal 2, DARTu, Metro North, intercity motorway network etc. we finally have a strategy which seems to be about providing for the future. I would ask you to stop focussing on what's immediately before you and think about what way you want this country to be like in 10, 20 and 30 years' time. If you're not prepared to look to future and put in plans now as to how to achieve it then you are doomed to stay stuck in the present..


There are in excess of 400,000 people on the dole; having a viable taxbase is the future not a white elephant like Metro North.

Cathal Dunne wrote:At the minute. In 2020 there could easily be 30 million using the airport - just when MN is getting up and running...


The original forecast was 1m yoy growth from 2004 (base passengers 19m) or 40m in 2020; that 50% passenger growth or 30m in 2020 is acheived is both 10m below the forecast supporting MN and is clearly in this environment far from certain.



Cathal Dunne wrote:Swords' population has grown rapidly over the past 10 years and has the capacity to grow much further over the next 10. It is a major suburb which would benefit from the service of a rail link to the city centre..


Swords cannot develop fully because it is constrianed by fractured ownership patterns; urban Swords within 1kms of its centre will never grow above 20,000.


Cathal Dunne wrote:The Dept of Finance doesn't like spending money on principle. They're beancounters, not transport engineers. The DoF tried to finance the M50 on the cheap during the 80s and we ended up with just two lanes and bad interchanges. We had to spend over a billion correcting this mistake..



The M50 was driven by an opportunistic PPP bridge that turned into a ransom strip; if planning had been sustainable at a regional level a two lane M50 would have been more than adequate. Dept of Finance crunched the numbers; the project failed on 2004 numbers; it would fare much worse today.

Cathal Dunne wrote:Correction, Frank McDonald is opposed. The Irish Times merely lets him hold forth on these views. I agree with McDonald on a lot of things but not on this. As on Letters to Editor suggested, perhaps he just suffers from hadesphobia..


Frank McDonald is the Irish Times when it comes to Infrastructure comment.


Cathal Dunne wrote:Existing development of large suburbs, the island's premier airport, DCU, Croke Park, Mater and National Children's Hospitals, O'Connell St. and St. Stephen's Green. In addition to this, we will see lots of people switching between MN and DARTu, MN and the Red Line, MN and Green Line and MN and DART at Drumcondra plus local bus routes.



1,000 units a year tops
30 minute bus ride from the airport to the city centre
A small university
A stadium beside a Dart Station
2 hospitals less than 10 minutes walk from the Luas link up terminus


Demonstrate its viablity in terms of actual passenger numbers that can be funded on a 20-25 year time frame; if you did you would be smarter than the ESRI, Dept of Finance, Irish Times and many others....
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby SeamusOG » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:10 am

Interested to see the O'Reiily report referenced on this thread. There was always one thing which stuck out about it, to my mind.

The report listed quite a number of metro systems in Europe which it had looked at, in cities of a size similar to Dublin - several in Spain, a couple in the UK, a few in France and odds and ends in Portugal and elsewhere - and it also gave a detailed outline of a bus system in Brazil.

I often wondered why they neglected to look at metro systems in similar size cities in Germany - there are several - as they might have also learned something there. I was always puzzled about that, as the German metro networks tend to be quite good.
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Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:07 pm

PVC King wrote:Drumcoundra has rail coverting to Dart it is served; where is the 80 year interest free loan?


Only in an east to west direction. The DART is useless if you want to go to Swords or the city centre from Drumcondra. Once Metro North is completed Drumcondra will be served by rail from all the points in the compass. This will make the DART more effective as people can switch between it and MN and vice versa. As I said before, it's a network externality.

The deficit is 19.75% that is far from under control; ask the ratings agencies what they think.


Again with the short-termist thinking. The austerity programme is due to be finished by 2014. More tough budgets, economic growth between 2011 and 2014 and lower unemployment will see the deficit brought down. This is why, with a budget deficit larger than Greece's last year, we can raise 90% of our funding for this year already. The present is tight but the future is bright.

Small numbers and nowhere near enough to sustain an underground station as it is surrounded by 3 bedroom semi-detached houses.


Not really since Maynooth is about the same size in a similar residential area and yet supports a heavy rail station. MN is light rail so should see plenty of business along this area.

Think about how the 1980's recession ended; it was when run away public spending including capital spending was brought under control.


Yes, I agree runaway spending was stopped after 1987 producing the fiscal stability necessary to boom in the 90s. However it is untrue to say that capital spending needed to be brought under control since there was little or none of it during that time. This left us with a creaking infrastructure which was about 30 years behind average European standards and resulted in gridlock once our economy revived. Infrastructure has always dragged down our competitiveness position internationally in indices published by the likes of the WEF and IMD. This makes it critical for us to maintain significant capital investment throughout this recession to ensure our catch-up continues. Thankfully, with the exemplar broadband network, intercity motorways, DARTu, Terminal 2 etc., we seem to be doing that. Once the recovery comes in this decade, we'll have the infrastructure ready to accommodate it.

There are in excess of 400,000 people on the dole; having a viable taxbase is the future not a white elephant like Metro North.


It's not a white elephant. The cost is estimated to have fallen by at least 20% according to an article in last Sunday's Sunday Times. The same article also points out that the cost-benefit ratio has improved from 1:1.32 to 1:1.5. That means for every euro spent on it, a gain of €1.50 is generated. Moreover, thousands of people will be employed during the construction phase. They will be paying PAYE, PRSI, income levies etc. which will reduce the net cost of Metro North.



The original forecast was 1m yoy growth from 2004 (base passengers 19m) or 40m in 2020; that 50% passenger growth or 30m in 2020 is acheived is both 10m below the forecast supporting MN and is clearly in this environment far from certain.


Whether it's 30m or 40m, a direct rail link from the airport to the city centre is a standard feature of European capital cities. Dublin has been lacking this for decades due to a lack of investment. Now, with MN, we have an opportunity to address this glaring omission.

Swords cannot develop fully because it is constrianed by fractured ownership patterns; urban Swords within 1kms of its centre will never grow above 20,000.


Well the CSO has its population at about 30,000 already. While most Swordians may live far part if you're to be believed, if they want to use MN and live out of walking distance, they can drive to the park-and-ride and then hop on. If you live within walking distance - no problem.


The M50 was driven by an opportunistic PPP bridge that turned into a ransom strip; if planning had been sustainable at a regional level a two lane M50 would have been more than adequate. Dept of Finance crunched the numbers; the project failed on 2004 numbers; it would fare much worse today.


A two-lane motorway sustainable in an economy which had more than tripled in size? With about 3 times more cars, vans, trucks and buses? Rubbish. The M50 was built on the cheap during the 80s with little vision to how it would be used 20 years in the future. The result was 10 years of it being Ireland's largest car-park. We had to spend a billion to make it the quick way to drive around Dublin it should have been.

If the Dept of Finance crunched the numbers and it supposedly failed, then how come it's still an on-going capital project? Brian Cowen was Minister for Finance in 2004 and he was the man who announced a few months ago that MN was one of the projects included in the €39 billion capital programme. The DoF has the ability to kill projects it doesn't like and yet they don't seem to be doing that with MN. That means either they don't believe in their 2004 assessment or they don't care. Either way, it doesn't do much for your position.


Frank McDonald is the Irish Times when it comes to Infrastructure comment.


Well Frank McDonald is a man with an opinion on MN and good luck to him but he is just one man amongst many with a view on it yet he is gifted with a by-line to broadcast his views to the nation.

1,000 units a year tops


Irrelevant considering that most of the area is already quite built up and is a ready-made market for the MN. The only open ground MN traverses is around the airport and that's to be expected anyway.

30 minute bus ride from the airport to the city centre


Not always a given with heavy traffic, roadworks, crashes and so on. Modern business depends on seamless and reliable service. A direct rail link between airport and city centre provides this.

A small university


I've dealt with this above when comparing DCU to Maynooth. In any case, DCU is a young and rapidly expanding university with a major venue - the Helix - on its grounds with an established suburb surrounding it. There is plenty of potential market there for Metro.

A stadium beside a Dart Station


A station which is only useful if you are coming to Croke Park from the east or west. If MN was operational now, Down supporters could drive down to the Bellinstown park and ride and get the Metro to Drumcondra. Similarly, Dublin supporters from the west of the city could get the bus into Town and get the Metro from OCS or Stephen's Green to Drumcondra. In addition to this, business people attending conferences at Croke Park centre and tourists going to the Museum could use the line to get there quicker and easier.

2 hospitals less than 10 minutes walk from the Luas link up terminus


Or 2 hospitals less than 5 minutes from the Metro stop.
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Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:44 pm

and back to the architecture...

which Irish architects/designers should redesign all the major stations...

Would you put them in groups of 4 and have them bring the best out of the structural engineer and electrician? Who would write the brief for them? a psychologist with an understanding of colour and nordic design and a inverse uzton as the client.

who would you pick out of grafton,odos,de blac? or who are other smaller fish you like

which landscape architect would you pick?
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Re: Metro North

Postby wearnicehats » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:39 pm

.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:58 pm

Cathal Dunne wrote:Only in an east to west direction. The DART is useless if you want to go to Swords or the city centre from Drumcondra. Once Metro North is completed Drumcondra will be served by rail from all the points in the compass. This will make the DART more effective as people can switch between it and MN and vice versa. As I said before, it's a network externality.



Again with the short-termist thinking. The austerity programme is due to be finished by 2014. More tough budgets, economic growth between 2011 and 2014 and lower unemployment will see the deficit brought down. This is why, with a budget deficit larger than Greece's last year, we can raise 90% of our funding for this year already. The present is tight but the future is bright.



Not really since Maynooth is about the same size in a similar residential area and yet supports a heavy rail station. MN is light rail so should see plenty of business along this area.



Yes, I agree runaway spending was stopped after 1987 producing the fiscal stability necessary to boom in the 90s. However it is untrue to say that capital spending needed to be brought under control since there was little or none of it during that time. This left us with a creaking infrastructure which was about 30 years behind average European standards and resulted in gridlock once our economy revived. Infrastructure has always dragged down our competitiveness position internationally in indices published by the likes of the WEF and IMD. This makes it critical for us to maintain significant capital investment throughout this recession to ensure our catch-up continues. Thankfully, with the exemplar broadband network, intercity motorways, DARTu, Terminal 2 etc., we seem to be doing that. Once the recovery comes in this decade, we'll have the infrastructure ready to accommodate it.



It's not a white elephant. The cost is estimated to have fallen by at least 20% according to an article in last Sunday's Sunday Times. The same article also points out that the cost-benefit ratio has improved from 1:1.32 to 1:1.5. That means for every euro spent on it, a gain of €1.50 is generated. Moreover, thousands of people will be employed during the construction phase. They will be paying PAYE, PRSI, income levies etc. which will reduce the net cost of Metro North.





Whether it's 30m or 40m, a direct rail link from the airport to the city centre is a standard feature of European capital cities. Dublin has been lacking this for decades due to a lack of investment. Now, with MN, we have an opportunity to address this glaring omission.



Well the CSO has its population at about 30,000 already. While most Swordians may live far part if you're to be believed, if they want to use MN and live out of walking distance, they can drive to the park-and-ride and then hop on. If you live within walking distance - no problem.




A two-lane motorway sustainable in an economy which had more than tripled in size? With about 3 times more cars, vans, trucks and buses? Rubbish. The M50 was built on the cheap during the 80s with little vision to how it would be used 20 years in the future. The result was 10 years of it being Ireland's largest car-park. We had to spend a billion to make it the quick way to drive around Dublin it should have been.

If the Dept of Finance crunched the numbers and it supposedly failed, then how come it's still an on-going capital project? Brian Cowen was Minister for Finance in 2004 and he was the man who announced a few months ago that MN was one of the projects included in the €39 billion capital programme. The DoF has the ability to kill projects it doesn't like and yet they don't seem to be doing that with MN. That means either they don't believe in their 2004 assessment or they don't care. Either way, it doesn't do much for your position.




Well Frank McDonald is a man with an opinion on MN and good luck to him but he is just one man amongst many with a view on it yet he is gifted with a by-line to broadcast his views to the nation.



Irrelevant considering that most of the area is already quite built up and is a ready-made market for the MN. The only open ground MN traverses is around the airport and that's to be expected anyway.



Not always a given with heavy traffic, roadworks, crashes and so on. Modern business depends on seamless and reliable service. A direct rail link between airport and city centre provides this.



I've dealt with this above when comparing DCU to Maynooth. In any case, DCU is a young and rapidly expanding university with a major venue - the Helix - on its grounds with an established suburb surrounding it. There is plenty of potential market there for Metro.



A station which is only useful if you are coming to Croke Park from the east or west. If MN was operational now, Down supporters could drive down to the Bellinstown park and ride and get the Metro to Drumcondra. Similarly, Dublin supporters from the west of the city could get the bus into Town and get the Metro from OCS or Stephen's Green to Drumcondra. In addition to this, business people attending conferences at Croke Park centre and tourists going to the Museum could use the line to get there quicker and easier.



Or 2 hospitals less than 5 minutes from the Metro stop.


I've lost count the amount of times you have said that a location would not be adequately served because it only had one rail line. You need to address the following

The original MN proposition had a financial basis of

Annual Growth of 6-10%
Ability to levy development contributions of at least €50m per year for a 10 year period
The ability to price debt within 25 basis point of Bund

On that basis that a complete white elephant could be provided for in the run up to the construction period with 10 year planning permissions allowing about €250m pre-construction; €250m during construction and €500m in the decade post construction. That is half the sum the RPA claim it would cost to build.

Address the shortfall and please do not say that the season ticket holders of the Heilix will make it all up.....
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Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:53 pm

PVC King wrote:I've lost count the amount of times you have said that a location would not be adequately served because it only had one rail line.


Well it's true! The DART line runs east to west around the northern fringe of the city centre. MN makes it more effective by providing a north-south line. This allows switching which improves the efficiency of both lines.

You need to address the following

The original MN proposition had a financial basis of

Annual Growth of 6-10%
Ability to levy development contributions of at least €50m per year for a 10 year period
The ability to price debt within 25 basis point of Bund

On that basis that a complete white elephant could be provided for in the run up to the construction period with 10 year planning permissions allowing about €250m pre-construction; €250m during construction and €500m in the decade post construction. That is half the sum the RPA claim it would cost to build.

Address the shortfall and please do not say that the season ticket holders of the Heilix will make it all up.....


MN was first conceived during the 2000s when growth of 6-10% was no longer achievable. Even the NDP 2007-13, drafted well before the slump, forecast only 4.5% growth for Ireland's economy over the time MN is to be built. MN will be built from 2012-19. Ireland's economy will recover over that time and there will be the economic capacity to sustain it when it takes passengers from 2019.

Let's assume for a minute that we won't be able to levy any developers anything. Worst case scenario that puts us down €500 million. Thankfully, the same recession which makes it impossible to levy developers also drives down tender prices. Noel Dempsey will be able to negotiate 20-30% off initial tender estimates because of this and save us taxpayers over a billion. That leaves us over €500 million to the good.

The higher debt servicing costs are unfortunate but manageable. Witness how the NTMA were able to raise €1.5 billion for us easily this week when the doubts were beginning to grow. We have been through the worst fiscal storm to hit us since independence and yet we have managed to keep investors confident enough to buy our bonds. As our austerity measures gain further traction and our economy recovers further our budgetary situation will improve and borrowing costs will fall. All of this will happen well before MN is due to start daily service.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Tue Aug 17, 2010 9:07 pm

If you get on Dart at Drumcoundra and change at Pearse you can get off at Stephens Green; you have travelled South; for O'Connell St change at Connolly for Luas.


The cost we are led to believe has fallen from €4bn - €5bn to €2bn; a discount of between 50%-60% that line is dry if it were ever credible.

Over the pre-development and development stage €500m or 25% or cost could have been raised, during the first decade of operation another €500m or 25% of the cost could have been raised. I would hardly call 50% of the funding source an issue that can moved on from; it is fatal and only a credible replacement of these levies will get MN out of 'Un built Ireland'

Now we move to the replacement funding; Bund 2.37% Irish 10 Year Paper 5.38%, J-Bills 0.95%, T-Bills 2.65%, Easy to raise money you are having a laugh.
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Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Fri Aug 20, 2010 2:07 am

PVC King wrote:If you get on Dart at Drumcoundra and change at Pearse you can get off at Stephens Green; you have travelled South; for O'Connell St change at Connolly for Luas.


A circuitous route which is a lot longer than the one possible with MN. MN links up the airport, DART, Luas, Interconnector, buses and cars (via Park-and-Ride facilities) and transforms the public transport network on the Northside.

In addition to this, once MN is completed, it will be possible to upgrade the Luas Green line to a Metro South and provide Dublin with a high-speed north-south underground corridor.

Metro North is about re-shaping the face of Dublin and making it a city in which public transport works.


The cost we are led to believe has fallen from €4bn - €5bn to €2bn; a discount of between 50%-60% that line is dry if it were ever credible.


Where did you get the 50-60% discount from? I said that due to the recession tender prices had fallen 20-30%. This is reasonable considering the fall in demand generally. Using the €5bn figure as a guide, this puts the gross cost of MN at about €3.5-4bn. Allow for the PAYE, PRSI, Income levies on the wages of builders and the VAT on materials and the net cost could easily be €2bn or lower. For a major piece of public infrastructure, that would represent a bargain.

Over the pre-development and development stage €500m or 25% or cost could have been raised, during the first decade of operation another €500m or 25% of the cost could have been raised. I would hardly call 50% of the funding source an issue that can moved on from; it is fatal and only a credible replacement of these levies will get MN out of 'Un built Ireland'


We've already got €500m from the EIB, the PPP aspect of the project will raise further funds and the Government can meet the rest.

Now we move to the replacement funding; Bund 2.37% Irish 10 Year Paper 5.38%, J-Bills 0.95%, T-Bills 2.65%, Easy to raise money you are having a laugh.


Quite easy indeed. We raised all our borrowing requirements for 2009 by September of that year and we now have raised all our borrowings for 2010 this week. We can now proceed to funding 2011 requirements and continue the process. This is all in an environment in which our fiscal situation has been as parlous as Greece's. The fact that the IMF and EU are in Athens now rather than Dublin speaks volumes of NTMA's ability to chart a safe course through turbulence for us.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:43 am

A circuitous route which is a lot longer than the one possible with MN. MN links up the airport, DART, Luas, Interconnector, buses and cars (via Park-and-Ride facilities) and transforms the public transport network on the Northside.

In addition to this, once MN is completed, it will be possible to upgrade the Luas Green line to a Metro South and provide Dublin with a high-speed north-south underground corridor.

Metro North is about re-shaping the face of Dublin and making it a city in which public transport works.


7 mins to pearse, 2 min interchange and 2 mins to St Green is cumbersome?

The deficit is almost 20% of GDP.......

Where did you get the 50-60% discount from? I said that due to the recession tender prices had fallen 20-30%. This is reasonable considering the fall in demand generally. Using the €5bn figure as a guide, this puts the gross cost of MN at about €3.5-4bn. Allow for the PAYE, PRSI, Income levies on the wages of builders and the VAT on materials and the net cost could easily be €2bn or lower. For a major piece of public infrastructure, that would represent a bargain.


It is a Luas line...... The original costs floated were €4bn-€5bn, costs don't tumble by 50% - 60% and then present opportunities for further savings... Dublin Central would create as many jobs and wouldn't cost the state anything on the balance sheet.


We've already got €500m from the EIB, the PPP aspect of the project will raise further funds and the Government can meet the rest.

We'll come back to the PPP element

Quite easy indeed. We raised all our borrowing requirements for 2009 by September of that year and we now have raised all our borrowings for 2010 this week. We can now proceed to funding 2011 requirements and continue the process. This is all in an environment in which our fiscal situation has been as parlous as Greece's. The fact that the IMF and EU are in Athens now rather than Dublin speaks volumes of NTMA's ability to chart a safe course through turbulence for us.


The Greeks got nailed for their off balance sheet tricks of trying to disguise PPP loans, their bond rates are now north of 11%, keep behaving like nothing has changed and the IMF won't be long coming in to sort out the national household. Just build it as a surface Luas line to the Airport and assess the options when the IMF are sorting out Mali on 10 years time.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby Cathal Dunne » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:40 am

PVC King wrote:7 mins to pearse, 2 min interchange and 2 mins to St Green is cumbersome?

The deficit is almost 20% of GDP.......


Yes, because they go around where people intend to travel. MN provides a straight connection between Stephen's Green, OCS and Drumcondra. MN is another link which makes the whole system better.

The 20% of GDP deficit point is irrelevant on three levels. The first is that it relates to this year and this year only and is inflated by once-off payments re. the banking situation. It will be resolved over the course of the Government's austerity programme to 2014. The second is that the Government capital programme has already been adjusted to reflect the new reality. Planned capital expenditure is down 40% on previous levels. MN is part of the 60% which the Government decided to continue with. We have to have a capital programme of new projects in this country otherwise when the economy is back to strong growth, the same infrastructural deficits which caused havoc during the boom will crop up again. Finally, if you're worried about our bank-bloated deficit, I would be much more bothered by the €4 billion we're spending on Irish Nationwide than Metro North. At least MN will be something useful when its built rather than the black hole INBS is proving to be.

It is a Luas line...... The original costs floated were €4bn-€5bn, costs don't tumble by 50% - 60% and then present opportunities for further savings... Dublin Central would create as many jobs and wouldn't cost the state anything on the balance sheet.


The original costs of €4-5 billion were estimated when builders couldn't knock up houses quickly enough and when every town in the country seemed to be getting a retail park. Builders could afford to squeeze the Government - witness the cost over-runs on several capital projects in the 2000s. Now that builders are desperate and close to bankruptcy, they no longer can name their price. This allows our Minister for Transport to negotiate 20-30% off the gross cost of projects like MN. When you then consider the amount of PAYE, PRSI, VAT receipts etc. created by such an investment the net cost of the project comes out still lower. What part of this can you not understand?

The Greeks got nailed for their off balance sheet tricks of trying to disguise PPP loans, their bond rates are now north of 11%, keep behaving like nothing has changed and the IMF won't be long coming in to sort out the national household. Just build it as a surface Luas line to the Airport and assess the options when the IMF are sorting out Mali on 10 years time.


Well international financiers who deal with billions in their own and clients' money have made the decision to buy Irish government paper in such volumes that we have been able to finance our borrowings well ahead of time so I choose to believe them over you. Ireland has had several brushes with becoming like Greece - the closest being last April - however we have avoided that fate and, with our austerity programme ongoing and an international recovery, we could avoid it entirely.

Your suggestion to just build a surface Luas line and assess the options is such a shallow remark. If we build a Luas line then the whole northside will be disrupted with building works and diversions for years and, when operational, it will be subject to the traffic congestion of the road. On top of this, your "assessing the options" remark is curious. Do you mean to say that then we should consider Metro? If you are then you are surely being ridiculous in suggesting we spend hundreds of millions on a Luas line, disrupt the Northside and then just build the Metro anyway a few years' later.

So, in our exchange over this vital piece of public transport, I have noticed that you have put up a number of protests to the viability of this project. I will address each to show how little each holds.

1.Swords too small

The CSO has stated in Censuses 2002 and 2006 that Swords has reached a population of over 30,000. This should continue to grow to over 40,000 by the time MN is up and running. That is a large suburb and it stands to reason that a large suburb can sustain three light-rail stops.

PVC says that Swords is too fragmented to support MN but he forgets that MN will have park and ride facilities. Swordians who live close to the Metro can walk to the stops and those living in PVC's imagined vast Swords' hinterland can drive to the stations and get Metro from there.

2.Dublin airport passenger nos.
Dublin Airport mat have seen a decline in the past 2 years due to recession but the Irish economy will recover over the time Metro is built. T2 will also make it easier for Dublin Airport to grow and get more flights from the likes of Etihad and Air India. This means passenger nos will be high when MN is open and provide a market for the line.

In any case, PVC is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He wants Dublin Airport to expand to 60-65 million passengers as an international hub. That's 40 million new passengers. If we assume that all these are hub travellers connecting from Cairo, Buenos Aires and Istanbul to New York, London and Paris and just 5% leave the airport to see the city itself that's 2 million more visitors to Dublin. The airlink buses would be like Indian trains with that extra strain. A direct, reliable rail link from the airport to the city centre would relieve nightmarish capacity constraints like that.

3.DCU is a small university
Firstly, DCU is a rapidly-growing university which could grow even better with a proper transport link to the city centre. Secondly, it's a larger university than Maynooth which has its own heavy-rail station. What's proposed here is light rail so there will be no problem filling the carriages with students. Thirdly, the DCU stop is in the established suburbs of Whitehall and Glasnevin which would serve as further sources of demand for a light-rail system.

4.Croke Park already served by DART
This is true if you're coming from Heuston via Phoenix Park Tunnel or Connolly. However, if you are from Ulster and travelling, its of no use. Instead you could park at Lissenhall or Dardistown and get Metro rest of way. If you are returning to Town from a match to celebrate in city centre pubs, it's of no use. Instead you can get Metro to OCS/Stephen's Green and there you are. If you are staying in the Shelbourne and have a conference at Croke Park, you can take MN from Stephen's Green to Croker. This is also true if you are a tourist and you want to go to the GAA Museum from Town.

So now that we have dealt with PVC's arguments against, let's look at some arguments for:

1.It integrates public and private transport on the Northside.
2.It boosts connectivity to DCU.
3.It provides a quick, reliable rail link to the airport.
4.It brings Swords within 30 minutes' commuting time of the city centre.
5.It provides a reliable public transport link to the Mater Hospital and future National Children's Hospital/
6.It improves access to Croke Park - Europe's 3rd largest stadium.
7.It makes it much easier for people of Ulster, Meath and Louth to access the city centre when driving.
8.It facilitates greater public transport options to the Northside for people in the Southside.
9.It provides a light-rail service to Ballymun, something it was denied with the revision of the Luas plan.
10.It represents a commitment to public transport which is necessary when oil prices could spike.

This is the last I'll say on the matter for now as I am beginning to think this exchange is distracting from this site's focus on architecture and design. Let's get back to discussing things like station design.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:26 am

Cathal Dunne wrote:The 20% of GDP deficit point is irrelevant on three levels. The first is that it relates to this year and this year only and is inflated by once-off payments re. the banking situation. It will be resolved over the course of the Government's austerity programme to 2014. The second is that the Government capital programme has already been adjusted to reflect the new reality. Planned capital expenditure is down 40% on previous levels. MN is part of the 60% which the Government decided to continue with. We have to have a capital programme of new projects in this country otherwise when the economy is back to strong growth, the same infrastructural deficits which caused havoc during the boom will crop up again. Finally, if you're worried about our bank-bloated deficit, I would be much more bothered by the €4 billion we're spending on Irish Nationwide than Metro North. At least MN will be something useful when its built rather than the black hole INBS is proving to be.



The deficit for 2009 was also in double digits and amongst the highest in the OECD. The 2011 situation will also be horrendous as will 2012.

This is true if you're coming from Heuston via Phoenix Park Tunnel or Connolly. However, if you are from Ulster and travelling, its of no use. Instead you could park at Lissenhall or Dardistown and get Metro rest of way. If you are returning to Town from a match to celebrate in city centre pubs, it's of no use. Instead you can get Metro to OCS/Stephen's Green and there you are. If you are staying in the Shelbourne and have a conference at Croke Park, you can take MN from Stephen's Green to Croker. This is also true if you are a tourist and you want to go to the GAA Museum from Town.



That view of Ireland just about sums your views up; people who do conferences at Croke Park don't stay at the Shelbourne; the country does not need another €2bn - €5bn in debt to design a transport system that facilitates a number of two hour sporting events.

Well international financiers who deal with billions in their own and clients' money have made the decision to buy Irish government paper in such volumes that we have been able to finance our borrowings well ahead of time so I choose to believe them over you. Ireland has had several brushes with becoming like Greece - the closest being last April - however we have avoided that fate and, with our austerity programme ongoing and an international recovery, we could avoid it entirely.


The spread over bund was well over 100% in price terms last week; one pays 5.37% and the other pays 2.27%, the market is speaking and if the government had listened 2 years ago instead of granting a full amnesty to the public sector on

1. Meaningful wage readjustment
2. Staffing level realignment

as well as culling white elephant projects such as MN and the Tuam Motorway then and only then can the deficit and public finance bill be brought back into some form of normality. What people like you fail to grasp is that any modern economy thrives on credit; if the government pays x price, then the corporate companies in the economy pay x plus risk. If x = 5.37% in Ireland and 2.27% in Germany how do you expect the employment creators to compete with foreign companies and create employment.

There is no way around tacklling the deficit and as the Interconnector is the must have project; MN as an underground project must go; for all your whining about a few road works; the only way such a project could be justified would be if the entire car-driven sprawl were gridlocked, which it is not bus times from Dublin Airport to the CC are 30 mins; as Green Luas has shown; Luas is more than adequate at clearing traffic and getting passengers from A to B.
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:09 pm

PRESS RELEASE: S&P Lowers Ireland L-T Rtg To -2
PVC King
 

Re: Metro North

Postby notjim » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:03 pm

@pvcking

can I try this one last time: it might be fun to discuss the metro without having to read your opinion, with which I am conversant in, in which I was once interested and to which I am not necessarily opposed. the fact that whenever I log in to archiseek you are _always_ the most recent poster in this thread makes me feel claustrophobic and puts me off hanging out on the site. please walk away from the metro thread and limit yourself to posting only on a new "Should we build the metro" thread, so that the Metro North thread can be for discussion around the metro, but unrelated to the overall issue of whether we should build it.
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Re: Metro North

Postby neutral » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:15 pm

notjim wrote:@pvcking

can I try this one last time: it might be fun to discuss the metro without having to read your opinion, with which I am conversant in, in which I was once interested and to which I am not necessarily opposed. the fact that whenever I log in to archiseek you are _always_ the most recent poster in this thread makes me feel claustrophobic and puts me off hanging out on the site. please walk away from the metro thread and limit yourself to posting only on a new "Should we build the metro" thread, so that the Metro North thread can be for discussion around the metro, but unrelated to the overall issue of whether we should build it.


I'm in agreement with this also it has become too boring to say the least!!!
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:36 pm

Yes, I agree. The constant battlefield that PVC has made of this thread is tiresome to say the least and has put me off posting in it.
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Re: Metro North

Postby wearnicehats » Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:51 pm

this confuses me. As I see it there are 3 issues with the supporters of Metro North

Does it go past my house? If not, what can I do about it.

Will the trains look nice and shiny? Will they be nicer than the perfectly convenient bus I otherwise take?

Will the Stations look nice?

The question that is never asked is:

Do we need it?

Now in terms of relevance the "Do we need it?" question, in today's climate, is undoubtedly the most pertinent. Personally, I think it's the biggest white elephant in the history of white elephants. It is pertinent only to those whose daily commute it will improve. The basic question at the heart of this is - "could we spend the money better elsewhere?" Answer - yes. In order for this to penetrate the heads of those who see the value of their houses improving this requires analysis of cost. To suggest that a discussion on the merits of Metro North exclude the very basis of its future existence is to turn the whole exercise into some sort of first year theory project.

Just add PVC to your ignore list and carry on dreaming.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:51 pm

Just add PVC to your ignore list and carry on dreaming.


Couldn't agree more.

Notjim

If you want to start another thread extolling the virtues of a project that I see as symptomatic of how the boom was blown and why the International community just doesn't get Ireland Inc. just now; then be my guest; I undertake not to post one single character; I add only one condition you must be the thread starter.
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Re: Metro North

Postby notjim » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:58 am

Adding you to my ignore list isn't the point; firstly I usually like your posts and might want to read them on topics and second, the posts you make here prompt a response which I would end up reading.

Again, my problem isn't with your Metro opinion and I amn't dreaming, the point I'm making is that repeating the same arguements again and again and with the full force of sarcasm and stern language creates a ranty atmosphere! The fact you used my post as an excuse to repeat your view of the Metro North and again end up at the end of the thread, well, all I can say is aaaahhhh.

Anyway, I tried.
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Re: Metro North

Postby tommyt » Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

PVC King wrote:Couldn't agree more.

Notjim

If you want to start another thread extolling the virtues of a project that I see as symptomatic of how the boom was blown and why the International community just doesn't get Ireland Inc. just now; then be my guest; I undertake not to post one single character; I add only one condition you must be the thread starter.


PVCK ; You know you're in trouble when Kevin Myers starts agreeing with you:o:o:o

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/kevin-myers-the-metro-is-an-insane-idea-and-a-disaster-for-dublin-2310177.html

Outside of the cost/benefit purgatory of this thread it's gone somewhat unnoticed that there is a PQQ out at the minute for CIE to redevelop their East Wall shunting area for mixed use to include a new bus interchange AND retains the rail link down the Alex Road to the Port. If this grows legs/credibility at a sufficient pace an express coach link exploiting the tunnel and Dart Uground/LUAS linkages must surely be the final nail in the coffin for MN.
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