Metro North

Re: Metro North

Postby ihateawake » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:38 pm

That is a good point. Id say bilingual signage is part of the consortium's brief however, and the renders are serving their purpose as a rough outline of actual stations. It is a state project after all. What is the Irish for metro anyway?:D Metró, Metreo?

PVC King, I have to disagree, the project could not come at a better time. Our government seems reluctant to stimulate growth at the moment which is unfortunate. This project and others like it should go a long way towards that end. After our economy has been restructured, if we have no pull factors to attract investment then our efforts will have been for null. The fact is despite the boom, our infrastructure is sorely lacking, you know this. If we neglect capital projects like has been done in the past, we will only prolong our situation of high cost and low efficiency... this will hurt local and international companies and make it harder for us to climb our way out of debt. The system will be well integrated assuming ticketing is achieved with IC etc and will do more for the city than just stimulate its economy.

The fact is doing it "later" is too late, that attitude leaves us where we are now.
DBR please.
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:49 pm

i think the Irish for metro is metro. Same in Spanish, French, portuguese etc. lol
Although that being said, the good people who erect sinage for Iarnród Éireann seem to think that the Irish for Docklands Station is, and I quote from said sign that can be spotted on mayor st: "Dugaílte Stáisuín". Well I just about threw up with the shame of knowing that such obviously incorrect signage can be erected with no notice from DCC, DDDA or IÉ
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Re: Metro North

Postby ihateawake » Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:56 pm

Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm :P

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? :D Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:16 am

ihateawake wrote:Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm :P

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? :D Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.


When is the last time an NTMA bond auction sold at 89.50?


Smacks of the 86 Inteligence unit report
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:23 pm

ihateawake wrote:Is ealaín é sin :rolleyes: Chomh maith le sin, Is méad do na boscaí bruscar timpeall an cathair le brúscar scríofa air. Is rud éigin beag é, ach cuireann sé isteach orm :P

Ba chóir do bain usáid as an teanga, muna bhfuil, ba mhaith leat teacht liom agus é a scriobh i ngach stáisiún? :D Beidh sé sceimhlitheoireacht tírghrách.


I'm not blaming you for it lol, I hadn't noticed the bins, probably because they're all siver now and have no writting on them. And yes, I think you should take care of those awful signs :)
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:24 pm

PVC King wrote:When is the last time an NTMA bond auction sold at 89.50?


Smacks of the 86 Inteligence unit report


what are you on about?
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Re: Metro North

Postby ihateawake » Sun Mar 29, 2009 12:09 am

cgcsb wrote:what are you on about?


+1, wha?

Hheh, I know, I just meant theres almost an art to their carelessness :p
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Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Sun Mar 29, 2009 2:25 am

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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Sun Mar 29, 2009 8:01 pm

cgcsb wrote:what are you on about?


The discussion is whether one should spend an estimated €5bn building a metal tube under a little of Dublin City Centre to the greying suburbs and beyond to Dublin International Airport and a small town called Swords.

The people who would pay for that are the taxpayers; now that the taxpayers can't pay for healthcare they turn to an agency called the National Treasury Management Agency or NTMA. Last week said agency went to Market or Capital Markets as they are known offering about 125 basis points above what the Bund (or what the prudent German Central Bank) would offer to tempt investors to part with their money.

These investors who for 10 years between say 1997 -2007 would have asked for between 3 and 15 basis to cover the extra risk. The markets refused the risk spread of almost 50% higher return than what the Germans pay; they wanted a further 175 basis points or slightly higher than what the Greeks pay and three times the risk spread the Spanish pay.

If €5bn is borrowed the markets will want over €5.6bn plus interest to hand over €5bn.

In 1986 a simple choice was set out by impartial independent economists, continue to spend money you don't have and that capital markets don't want to give you or restructure. Thankfully McSharry sorted things out very quickly and the rest is as they say history. I have no doubt Ireland can restructure successfully as there are a lot of qualities in the Irish business culture.

However you can't live beyond your means and when your cost of credit is higher than Greece it is fair to say that you have no reputation to risk; that was the case in 1986 and it is the case again.

How this project can seriously be discussed against this backdrop is frankly laughable. I have no doubt that all the private sector submissions link price to government covenant and if that goes the penalties will be severe. The costs of project finance will be linked to perceived risk of the underwriter (The Taxpayer) and if big ticket items like underground light rail systems keep being bought you only have to change the R to a C to see where it leads.
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:38 pm

Swords has the same population as Waterford City and has better shopping than Waterford. Hardly a small town. Dublin is the only capital city in Western Europe without a rail connection to the airport. You're obviously not from Dublin if you think that the suburbs in question are "greying"
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Re: Metro North

Postby notjim » Mon Mar 30, 2009 10:42 am

cgcsb wrote:Swords has the same population as Waterford City and has better shopping than Waterford. Hardly a small town. Dublin is the only capital city in Western Europe without a rail connection to the airport. You're obviously not from Dublin if you think that the suburbs in question are "greying"


I agree with you cgcsb; the metro will make Dublin a better place, it puts more stuff in easy reach: the Mater, DCU, Croke Park, even the Hugh Lane will all be closer, in practical terms, to town. I have a skewed perspective, most of my colleagues are from abroad and we belong to a highly mobile highly qualified profession who choose where to live from a whole world of options. This is part of a wider truth: the modern competition, for people, for investment, is between cities and the metro north will add more stuff to Dublin, the airport, DCU and so on will be closer, Swords will be a better place to live for people working in town and so on and so on. It helps realize existing value in the city's assets.

However, you are actually wrong; a number of Western European capitals don't have airport links, Lisbon for example.
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Re: Metro North

Postby SunnyDub » Mon Mar 30, 2009 4:01 pm

One of the issues with Metro North that hasn't received much attention on this forum is that it was to facilitate significant residential and commercial development along the corridor and a significant population & business expansion of Swords. This was predicated on a growing economy and fast expanding population. It will, no doubt, still apply in the long-term provided that we can get our house in order now & over the next 5 years.

Regarding whether to proceed or not, we all have our favourite projects, mine is the interconnector. But the only sensible way to choose is to first pick the projects that will pay back the most, i.e. those that do best on a cost-benefit analysis. In other words, if we spend money on these projects will we get it back, is it a sensible investment? Those projects should go ahead first.

Government should, of course, get its house in order and cut back useless current spending so we can invest in these projects rather than continue to waste our hard earned taxes on useless & wasteful government spending.
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Re: Metro North

Postby marmajam » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:32 pm

PVC King wrote:The discussion is whether one should spend an estimated €5bn building a metal tube under a little of Dublin City Centre to the greying suburbs and beyond to Dublin International Airport and a small town called Swords.

The people who would pay for that are the taxpayers; now that the taxpayers can't pay for healthcare they turn to an agency called the National Treasury Management Agency or NTMA. Last week said agency went to Market or Capital Markets as they are known offering about 125 basis points above what the Bund (or what the prudent German Central Bank) would offer to tempt investors to part with their money.

These investors who for 10 years between say 1997 -2007 would have asked for between 3 and 15 basis to cover the extra risk. The markets refused the risk spread of almost 50% higher return than what the Germans pay; they wanted a further 175 basis points or slightly higher than what the Greeks pay and three times the risk spread the Spanish pay.

If €5bn is borrowed the markets will want over €5.6bn plus interest to hand over €5bn.

In 1986 a simple choice was set out by impartial independent economists, continue to spend money you don't have and that capital markets don't want to give you or restructure. Thankfully McSharry sorted things out very quickly and the rest is as they say history. I have no doubt Ireland can restructure successfully as there are a lot of qualities in the Irish business culture.

However you can't live beyond your means and when your cost of credit is higher than Greece it is fair to say that you have no reputation to risk; that was the case in 1986 and it is the case again.

How this project can seriously be discussed against this backdrop is frankly laughable. I have no doubt that all the private sector submissions link price to government covenant and if that goes the penalties will be severe. The costs of project finance will be linked to perceived risk of the underwriter (The Taxpayer) and if big ticket items like underground light rail systems keep being bought you only have to change the R to a C to see where it leads.



what is really laughable are the schoolboy howler maths you invariably cough up.

you have a perverse mission to prove MN is wrong but you consistently garble the basic facts of the project.

further you have a sort of theoretical dream concept of the reality of Dublin transport which makes it plain that your grasp is hopelessly vague..
Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous.

you continually spout banking technical data while getting the obvious wrong.
The fact that you use this guff, when it might as well be Chinese to most people is the sad 'blinding with science' tactic of someone who is bluffing.



Firstly, the capital cost of MN is being tendered for less than 3 billion.
So, what's the tripe about borrowing 5 billion?

You previously stated that the 25 year payments would only be a subvention and the debt would still be owed.

Wrong.
After 25 yrs, the debt is cleared.

You think we won't be able to afford it based on your prophecies for the Irish economy.
If you know so much how come you failed to see the recession and originally supported MN?

Your mindset is that which built the M50 too small at great cost eventually.
What is happening in the world economy is simply a correction.
Expansion and growth will resume quite quickly and increase exponentially as they always do.
MN will be peanuts in cost, likely even by the time it is built.

So, spout on.
It will be built. There is serious political will behind it. As said many times, no real money needed until it's built in 2016 approx.
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Re: Metro North

Postby layo » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:53 pm

marmajam wrote:
Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous.



fair point...it's rediculous that people still believe the northern line is capable of providing an airport link..
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Mon Mar 30, 2009 7:46 pm

what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston. That would add The airport to the national rail network as well as allowing for easy Belfast to Cork rail services. It would also free up the Northern Line for DART services only instead of having to share with intercity services. It would actually benefit the northern line, The Belfast service and people from other parts of the country who wish to access the airport without changing in the city centre.

It's a project worth looking into after Transport 21 is finished and the economy is back on it's feet.

At the moment I would be happy if the Metro and the Interconnector are built as well as the projects already under construction. Everything else can wait.
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Re: Metro North

Postby Seanoh » Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:06 pm

notjim wrote:However, you are actually wrong; a number of Western European capitals don't have airport links, Lisbon for example.


Lisbon's airport metro link is currently under construction.
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Re: Metro North

Postby PVC King » Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:25 pm

marmajam wrote: what is really laughable are the schoolboy howler maths you invariably cough up.
you have a perverse mission to prove MN is wrong but you consistently garble the basic facts of the project. further you have a sort of theoretical dream concept of the reality of Dublin transport which makes it plain that your grasp is hopelessly vague..
Your idea that Airport DMUs could fit into the Northern Line with the DART would be laughable if it was not so ridiculous. .


As Shakespere said there are daggers in men's smiles, you wouldn't last 5 minutes in civilised company.

marmajam wrote:you continually spout banking technical data while getting the obvious wrong.
The fact that you use this guff, when it might as well be Chinese to most people is the sad 'blinding with science' tactic of someone who is bluffing.


Ireland loses its triple 'A' rating
Monday, 30 March 2009 19:49
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has today lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on Ireland to 'AA+' from 'AAA.' It added that the country's rating outlook is negative.

A lower credit rating usually makes borrowing more expensive.

S&P said the downgrade reflects its view that the deterioration of the country's public finances will likely require a number of years of sustained effort to repair, on a scale greater than factored into the Government's current plans.


It added that it expects the Irish economy will materially underperform the euro zone economy as a whole over the next five years.


S&P also said that the ratings on Ireland could be lowered again if the public finances weaken substantially further than what it currently assumes.


'The outlook could be revised to stable if the government embraces a fiscal strategy that contains the rise in the public debt burden in line with Ireland's modest economic growth prospects,' it added.

Credit rating agencies rate the ability of companies and countries to meet their financial obligations and their reports are watched by those who lend money in capital markets.


I wish I could live in your fantasy World but unfortunately people like S & P have just cost the taxpayer a lot of money and reduced the capacity to borrow dramatically.





marmajam wrote: Firstly, the capital cost of MN is being tendered for less than 3 billion. So, what's the tripe about borrowing 5 billion?


Colm McCarthy An Snip Nua - in yesterdays Sindo estimated €5bn but warned of further cost over-runs



marmajam wrote: You previously stated that the 25 year payments would only be a subvention and the debt would still be owed.
Wrong. After 25 yrs, the debt is cleared.


Make up your mind you either pay interest and capital during the period at a rate of 8% i.e. the absolute minimum the market would extend finance for such a project in a good market long since gone. The cost of which would be €468.39m p.a. or let it balloon into a debt pile compounded beyond belief as interest generates interest.

Which is it or do you have a mystery philanthropist in the wings?

S & P's key phrase was 'the downgrade reflects its view that the deterioration of the country's public finances will likely require a number of years of sustained effort to repair, on a scale greater than factored into the Government's current plans.'

I strongly hope that the policy makers in Ireland have a better grasp of reality than they had in the 1980's, with people like marmajam I understand why there was mass emmigration in the 1980's, no-one could listen to such tripe even a Bus Eireann to Leeds would be preferable.
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Re: Metro North

Postby Fergal » Mon Mar 30, 2009 10:06 pm

The point is that the €5 billion is a total cost for the 30 year PPP including finance and maintenance and operation of the Metro for 30 years. The construction cost is only a portion of that.

Also, the money will not actually be due until it's built, which will be 2015 at the absolute earliest. If we are out of the recession by then, we will want it. If we are not, it will only be a tiny drop in the ocean of our debt.

The world is heading for an inflationary period, with the US treasury printing money, and the ECB sure to follow, as export led Germany will be affected badly by losing its foreign markets, with GDP there expected to fall 7% this year by Commerzbank

If the Government can put any sort of shape on the public finances, now is the perfect time to borrow to invest in infrastructure, as inflation will rapidly burn the debt away as a recovery kicks in in world markets. This has to be balanced against the risk of the country losing the ability to borrow, but I would advocate cutting current spending to invest in capital works, as money is cheap now, and inflation will be high soon enough.
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Re: Metro North

Postby marmajam » Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:18 am

PVC King wrote:









For someone so adamant it's bizarre that you are unaware that the c5 billion refers to total cost (over 25 yrs Fergal), not the construction cost. In fact it will likely be less than 5 billion.
Fergal speaks sense, by 2015/16 and growth well recovered the cheap price available now will be a bargain. If not it will be a small part of debt.
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Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Tue Mar 31, 2009 8:37 am

It's much like a mortgage?
you pay 2.5 billion for the house and 2.5 billion to the banks in interest?
Ireland just cannot print money now to do it because its on the euro?
But if they don't have to pay for it for 6 years its just another 2 billion in interest?

So just say 2.5 billion to build it and 4.5 billion in interest to the banks does that make sense? Not including performance bonuses? and little to no long term maintenance...

The 2.5 billion dollar houses actually costs 7.5 billion?
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Re: Metro North

Postby missarchi » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:19 am

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Re: Metro North

Postby marmajam » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:17 am

missarchi wrote:It's much like a mortgage?
you pay 2.5 billion for the house and 2.5 billion to the banks in interest?
Ireland just cannot print money now to do it because its on the euro?
But if they don't have to pay for it for 6 years its just another 2 billion in interest?

So just say 2.5 billion to build it and 4.5 billion in interest to the banks does that make sense? Not including performance bonuses? and little to no long term maintenance...

The 2.5 billion dollar houses actually costs 7.5 billion?


The DoT's own calculations are approx 250m a year for 5 yrs (after construction) and 150m a year for 20yrs.
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Re: Metro North

Postby SunnyDub » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:52 pm

I can't believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: "what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston".

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?
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Re: Metro North

Postby marmajam » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:33 pm

SunnyDub wrote:I can't believe I actually agree with someone on this bizarre thread but a good idea may have found its way in:-

cgsb: "what might work is the diversion of Belfast to Dublin trains after Drogheda along a new line to the airport and to liffey junction and on to Heuston".

what are the arguments against this, other than cost?


none - it's a good idea that will be built some day.

does nothing for integrated public transport in dublin. the airport link is only one element of MN.
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Re: Metro North

Postby cgcsb » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:58 pm

It wouldn't cost that much really because there is alot of open country between Drogheda and the airport, most of it would be surface tracks with a small underground section before it reaches Heuston. There is already a rail tunnel under the park. It'd be cheaper, and easier to build than the Western rail corridor and would create alot more revenue.

Benefits:
-National rail connection to Dublin Airport
-Direct Cork-Belfast Services
-Extra capacity an Connolly
-Frees up the northern line for more DART's
-low cost compared to most road projects going ahead
-Could be extended to the new port in Bremore(if built) for frieght services between the port, airport and rest of country, and help us reach our Kyoto targets

Disadvantages:
anyone? excluding arguements about Irish people not being comfortable travelling underground
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